A decreasing vanadium footprint of bunker fuel emissions

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Characterization of Natural and Affected Environments

A decreasing vanadium footprint of bunker fuel emissions Nicholas James Spada, Xiaoya Cheng, Warren H. White, and Nicole Pauly Hyslop Environ. Sci. Technol., Just Accepted Manuscript • DOI: 10.1021/acs.est.8b02942 • Publication Date (Web): 11 Sep 2018 Downloaded from http://pubs.acs.org on September 12, 2018

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Environmental Science & Technology

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A decreasing vanadium footprint of bunker fuel emissions

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Nicholas J. Spada*, Xiaoya Cheng, Warren H. White, Nicole P. Hyslop

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Air Quality Research Center, University of California-Davis, One Shields Ave, Davis, CA

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95616, USA

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*Corresponding Author: Crocker Nuclear Lab / Jungerman Hall, University of California, Davis,

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1 Shields Ave, Davis, California, 95616. [email protected]

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Abstract

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The Interagency Monitoring of Protected Visual Environments (IMPROVE) network measures

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the chemical composition of atmospheric particulate matter at over 160 locations throughout the

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United States. As part of the routine quality control process, we noted decreases in the network-

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wide vanadium (V) and nickel (Ni) concentrations in 2015 relative to the previous years.

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Enriched V and Ni with respect to soil is indicative of heavy fuel oil burning and are often used

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as tracers for emissions from marine vessels. Multiple regulations on the fuel used by marine

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vessels were implemented in North America since 2010, and the most sweeping regulation was

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implemented at the start of 2015. The 2015 regulations reduced the allowable fuel oil sulfur

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concentrations within the North America Emissions Control Area from 1.0% to 0.1% to reduce

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the environmental and human health impacts of sulfates. As a side effect, these requirements

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economically favored fuels with lower V and Ni concentrations. The atmospheric concentrations

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of V and Ni decreased markedly at many IMPROVE monitoring sites, particularly sites near

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major ports. Between 2011 and 2015, annual mean V concentrations measured on IMPROVE 1 ACS Paragon Plus Environment


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samples collected near the ports of Seattle, Washington and New Orleans, Louisiana decreased

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by 35% and 85%, respectively. These decreases have brought the coastal V and Ni

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concentrations much closer to those measured far inland.

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TOC Art

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Introduction

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Oceanic transport is a critical component of international trade. Approximately 93,000 vessels

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carried 10.3 billion metric tons globally in 2016.1 As such, marine shipping is a significant

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contributor to anthropogenic emissions. Studies in the early 2000s have estimated global

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contributions of shipping emissions of 15% for nitric oxides (NOx), 5-8% of sulfur oxides (SOx),

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and 1.2-1.6 million metric tons of particulate matter (PM) with aerodynamic diameter of 10 um

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or less (PM10).2 Environmentally, NOx is a precursor for tropospheric ozone formation, SOx

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contributes to acidification of the oceans and acid rain, while PM induces both positive and

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negative radiative forcings depending on particle morphology and composition.3, 4 Human health

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effects were estimated using emissions inventories with cardiopulmonary and lung cancer

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concentration-risk functions, which estimated 60,000 excess deaths per year due to marine vessel

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emissions prior to regulatory changes.2 To address air quality concerns, the International 2 ACS Paragon Plus Environment

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Maritime Organization (IMO) has implemented restrictions on the fuel compositions used by this

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international fleet.

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Changes in marine fuel oil (MFO, or “bunker fuel”) composition resulted from IMO regulations

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limiting sulfur (S) content in MFO. The United States and Canada established the North

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American Emissions Control Area (ECA) around their borders in 2010, and the ECA became

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enforceable in August 2012.5 The regulations governing vessels within an ECA limited the sulfur

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content in MFO to below 1.0% in 2010 and below 0.1% in 2015, as shown in Figure 1. On a

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slightly accelerated schedule, the California Air Resources Board (CARB) enacted similar

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regulations on ships traveling within 24 nautical miles of the California coastline, also shown in

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Figure 1, specifying sulfur restrictions of 0.1% starting January 1, 2014.6 None of these

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regulations specified reductions in vanadium (V) or nickel (Ni) explicitly, but the low-sulfur fuel

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used to meet the regulations also contained lower levels of V and Ni due to the fuel oil

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refinement process. V is soluble in all crude oils and is of particular interest to ship owners as it

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causes fouling and high temperature corrosion of exhaust components.7 Industry specifications

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limit V levels in various fuel grades to the 100s of mg/kg7 while Ni levels are approximately

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one-tenth the concentration of V8.

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Figure 1. International Maritime Organization (IMO) and California Air Resources Board (ARB) fuel regulations on sulfur (S) content. The California regulations differentiate marine gas oil (DMA) and marine diesel oil (DMB).

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Anthropogenic sources of atmospheric V and Ni include oil refineries, oil-fired power plants,

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and oil-fired home heating systems.9-12 Where contributions from these land-based sources can

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be discounted, atmospheric particulate V is widely utilized as a tracer of marine diesel emissions.

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Recent studies have reported on the decline in detectable emissions from marine vessels. On-

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board measurements in the Baltic Sea by Zetterdahl, et al.

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mass concentrations and 80% for SO2 concentrations after the IMO 2015 regulation took effect.

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Tao, et al.

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between 2008 and 2010 during Phase I of the CARB regulations. Kotchenruther employed

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positive matrix factorization (PMF) on IMPROVE PM2.5 (PM with aerodynamic diameter of 2.5

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um or less) speciation data to estimate effects of the regulations along the west coast of the

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U.S.15 and at coastal and near coastal monitoring sites of the contiguous U.S.16; both studies

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found significant reductions in V and Ni signatures related to fuel oil combustion before and

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after regulations were enacted, with decreases of 30-52% along the western U.S. coast

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specifically, and 29-65% along the entire contiguous U.S. coasts.

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The present study expands on the previous work by considering all IMPROVE sites, including

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non-coastal sites and sites in Hawai’i, Alaska, and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Examining the

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IMPROVE network as a whole provides a striking perspective on the impact of shipping

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emissions in general and the ECA regulations in particular. Our before-and-after maps of

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IMPROVE concentrations

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regulations' impact. Concentrations at any one location can vary from year to year for any

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number of reasons, ranging from real shifts in weather patterns or real changes in economic

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activity and emissions, to measurement artifacts potentially introduced by new filter media,

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measurement protocols, or instrument systems.

14

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found a decrease of 67% for PM

observed V decreases ranging from 28 to 64% in the Bay Area of California

reveal

a

clear geographic

footprint

of

the

The fact that sharply lower vanadium


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concentrations were

observed

only

at

near-coastal

sites

effectively

excludes generic

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measurement issues as possible explanations, due to IMPROVE's centralized analysis and

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standardized sampling. Moreover the difference between this behavior and that of chlorine,

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which showed no such change, argues against a shift in atmospheric transport patterns as an

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explanation. We are left, then, with the observation that regulatory restrictions on marine bunker

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fuel emissions coincided with distinct reductions in vanadium, more or less exactly when and

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where they were expected. This distinct spatio-temporal signature provides an independent

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source of confidence in the specificity of our attribution of previously elevated vanadium

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concentrations to marine bunker fuel emissions.

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Materials and Methods

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The Interagency Monitoring of Protected Visual Environments (IMPROVE) network

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characterizes atmospheric particulate matter (PM) at over 160 locations throughout the United

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States, primarily in remote locations.17, 18 IMPROVE collects samples of PM over 24 hours every

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3 days at each site. Three filter samples of fine particles (Dap ≤ 2.5 µm PM2.5) and one filter

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sample of PM10 (Dap ≤ 10 µm) are collected during each sample period. The three PM2.5 samples

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are collected on three different filter substrates: polytetrafluoroethylene (PTFE), nylon, and

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quartz. Multiple analyses are performed on the filters to determine the bulk chemical and optical

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properties of the PM: mass by gravimetry, elements by energy-dispersive X-ray fluorescence

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(ED-XRF), light absorption by a hybrid integrating plate and sphere system (HIPS), carbon

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fractions by thermal-optical reflectance (TOR), and anions by ion chromatography (IC). The data

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can be downloaded from http://views.cira.colostate.edu/fed/. All valid data (no null code) were 5 ACS Paragon Plus Environment


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included in this study. A total of 154 sites met the requirement that all parameters included in

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this study were at least 75% complete (number of valid measurements / total number of

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scheduled measurements) for each year of the study, 2011 through 2016. Values below the

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reported minimum detectable limit were included in the averaging so that the results were not

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skewed in the positive direction.

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V, Cl, and Ni are measured by ED-XRF on the PM2.5 PTFE samples. The same analytical

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instrumentation (PANalytical, Netherlands) was used throughout the years included in this

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analysis, avoiding changes in analytical technique that might otherwise introduce artificial

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discontinuities or trends.19 Limits of detection vary per batch of filters and ranged from 0.10 to

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0.22 ng m-3 for both V and Ni during the years of interest. Prior to the ECA regulations, V and

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Ni concentrations at coastal sites are highly variable but often an order of magnitude or two

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above these limits of detection. Recently, the quoted or reference values for the V calibration

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standards used to calibrate the XRF instruments were found to be incorrect, causing a

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multiplicative bias in all V concentrations reported from January 2011 through October 201720;

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all the V concentrations used in this study have been corrected as advised by Trzepla. The

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calibration and its bias were both consistent throughout the years under study, so this correction

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has no effect on the relative changes observed over time.

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The influence of natural marine emissions within the U.S. is illustrated by a map of elemental

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chlorine (Cl) concentrations; Figure 3 shows a bubble map of the annual average Cl

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concentrations measured at individual IMPROVE sites in 2011 and 2015. The year 2011 was

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chosen because it was the earliest year that IMPROVE samples were analyzed with new ED-

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XRF instruments, and 2015 offered the first available complete year of data since the


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implementation of the most recent ECA regulation. The circle diameters correspond to the

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magnitude of the Cl concentrations, with consistent scales used for 2011 and 2015, including all

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insets. The coastal sites stand out prominently on this map. The 2015 Cl concentrations measured

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were generally consistent with the 2011 measurements, which helps alleviate concerns that

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atmospheric conditions may have been dramatically different during these two years or that the

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analytical measurements were not stable since Cl is also measured by ED-XRF on the PTFE

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filter. Cl concentrations are consistent at most sites (bubbles are similarly sized) between 2011

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and 2015, suggesting natural marine emissions affected the sites similarly in the two years and

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the analytical measurements were stable.



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Figure 2. Annual average Cl concentrations measured during 2011 and 2015. The Emissions Control Area (ECA) border is shown in green asterisks. Sites in Table 1 are labeled and identified by a black dot. The 2011 values (in blue) are shown in the inset maps but are eclipsed by the 2015 concentrations (in red), reinforcing the consistent measurements at these sites.

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Results and Discussion

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The annual mean V concentrations for years 2011 and 2015 are shown in Figure 3. Again, the

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coastal sites stand out on this map, particularly those near major shipping ports, and there are

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substantial decreases in the V concentrations between 2011 and 2015 at many of those coastal

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sites. Note that most IMPROVE sites are located in rural areas far away from shipping ports. It is 8 ACS Paragon Plus Environment

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interesting that the Cl concentrations decrease far more rapidly moving inland from the

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coastlines than V concentrations, The first explanation for this is that there are other sources of

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Ni and V at inland locations (e.g., oil refining), whereas inland sources of Cl are rare. In

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addition, dry deposition and dechlorination effectively eliminate natural marine aerosols from

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penetrating inland.21 Emissions from marine vessels, on the other hand, may have longer

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atmospheric lifetimes due to hydrophobic organic coatings of fluorene, fluoranthene, and

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phenanthrene acquired during initial particle formation and condensation in the effluent gases

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(22), and thus transport further inland. Attesting to the stability of the analytical measurements,

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many sites measured consistent annual mean V concentrations between 2011 and 2015,

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particularly interior sites and coastal sites close to the ECA border.

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Many of the largest V decreases were observed in the northeastern U.S. along with Washington

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State near Tacoma/Seattle and downwind of the Los Angeles/Long Beach ports. In the northeast,

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decreases ranged from 62% (observed at PACK1, New Hampshire) to 90% (at BRIG1, New

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Jersey) in annual average V concentrations between 2011 and 2015. The Washington State sites

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decreased between 50% (WHPA1) and 89% (MAKA2) while southern California sites decreased

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between 46% (SAGA1) and 80% (AGTI1). Complementary information about these select sites

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is listed in Table 1. An interactive IMPROVE site browser is available on the Federal Land

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Manager Environmental Database website, at http://views.cira.colostate.edu/fed/SiteBrowser/.

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The 2015 V concentrations for most of these affected sites dropped to levels near the reported

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detection limit. It is important to note that fuel oils, which also contain V, are used for home

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heating in the northeastern U.S.; this study did not attempt to differentiate between marine vessel

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and home heating signatures, but the temporal and geospatial profiles suggest the V decline

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results from the ECA regulations. 9 ACS Paragon Plus Environment


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Figure 3. Annual average vanadium concentrations measured before and after fuel regulation regimes. Note that the Cl concentrations shown in Figure 2 were very low in the areas north of Texas and Louisiana whereas the V concentrations were elevated and did not change from 2011 to 2015. Sites in Table 1 are labeled and identified by a black dot.

172 Site Code ACAD1 AGTI1 BRIG1 BRIS1 MAKA2 MAVI1 NEBR1 OLYM1

State Maine California New Jersey Louisiana Washington Massachusetts Nebraska Washington

Elevation, m Nearest Seaport 157 Bar Harbor 508 Long Beach 5 Cape May -7 New Orleans 480 Victoria 2 New Bedford 883 Houston 600 Seattle 10 ACS Paragon Plus Environment

Distance to Seaport, km 4 120 70 31 92 36 1,434 64

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ORPI1 PACK1 PUSO1 SAGA1 VIIS1 WHPA1 WIMO1

Arizona Massachusetts Washington California US Virgin Islands Washington Oklahoma

504 695 98 1791 51 1827 509

San Diego Boston Harbor Seattle Long Beach Cruz Bay Foss Waterway Houston

415 90 5 60 1 110 654

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Table 1. Additional location details for IMPROVE sampling locations included in the discussion.

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An advantage of including non-coastal sites in the analysis was finding V decreases in

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unexpected locations. Organ Pipe National Park, Arizona (ORPI1), located near the terminus of

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the Gulf of California, along with other non-coastal sites in Arizona, show elevated V and Cl

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signatures relative to the network average along with a significant decline in V concentrations

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between 2011 and 2015. Although there are no major ports or shipping lanes in the northern

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portion of the Gulf of California as of 2018, air mass trajectories predicted by HYSPLIT23

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indicate the Arizona sites were influenced by a combination of transport from the southern coast

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of Mexico as well as the Los Angeles and Long Beach ports. Another interesting find was a

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cluster of IMPROVE sites located in Oklahoma, Kansas, Arkansas, and Missouri, where the

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topography is relatively flat with little to impede the PM transported by the prevailing Gulf of

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Mexico breeze. V concentrations in this area remained elevated above other inland sites,

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suggesting these sites may be affected by the vast oil refining activities and large shipping ports

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along the U.S. gulf coast. HYSPLIT trajectories for these locations supported this hypothesis and

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were included in the supporting information.

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Sites in Hawai’i, Alaska, and those near the Caribbean showed little or no decrease in V

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concentrations between 2011 and 2015. The HAVO1 site is located at Hawai’i Volcanoes

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National Park at an elevation of 1.3 km and is influenced by the nearby Kīlauea volcano, which

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is reflected in the low V/Ni ratio (higher Ni concentrations relative to V from volcanism). The 11 ACS Paragon Plus Environment


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HACR1 site is a free tropospheric monitoring station located at Haleakalā National Park at an

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elevation of 2.2 km, and similar to the Mauna Loa Observatory, this site experiences local PM

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influences only during the daytime upslope flow regime.24, 25 In Alaska, the SIME1 site is close

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to sea level (57 m) and very close to the island’s fishing port (~1 km) to the northeast; however,

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V and Ni measurements are rarely above the detection limits (19 and 14% above detection limits

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for the entire study period, respectively). This is likely due to local wind patterns from the south

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that supply this site with clean marine air, as confirmed by back trajectories and indicated by the

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Cl concentrations shown in Figure 2. Finally, IMPROVE sites in Florida and the U.S. Virgin

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Islands did not decrease significantly in 2015 with respect to 2011. The Florida sites may have

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been impacted by other sources of V and Ni sources such as oil refining along the Gulf Coast or

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transport from the relatively nearby ECA border, as proposed in previous assessments of this

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area16. The Virgin Islands site, VIIS1, presents V concentrations higher than the network average

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in 2015 (1.1 ng m-3 annual mean) and only a slight decrease in V after the IMO regulations were

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enacted (0.9 ng m-3 2016 annual mean). The site is less than 6 km from the ECA border. These

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findings suggest that vessels operating in the Caribbean continued using the lower grade fuel oils

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since this area does not require fuel oil-based home heating, is mostly outside the boundaries of

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the ECA, and the large oil refinery on St. Croix was not operating between 2012 and 2017.

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The Ni concentration patterns in 2011 and 2015 are very similar to those of V shown in Figure 3

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(see Figure S1 in the Supporting Information), decreasing at the same sites as V concentrations.

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Since the concentration of Ni in MFO is much lower than that of V, the absolute decreases in Ni

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concentrations were not as large as those observed in V. Other measured parameters, including

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soil elements, carbon, and ions, were compared between the two years of interest, 2011 and

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2015, to determine if concentrations of other species related to shipping emissions decreased; 12 ACS Paragon Plus Environment

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Figure 4 shows the concentration distributions of daily measurements at select sites for 2011

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(blue) and 2015 (red). The distributions for all parameters in Figure 4 excluding V and Ni were

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very similar between the two years. Despite the ECA regulations targeting sulfur reductions in

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MFO, S did not show dramatic decreases at the coastal sites, although Figure 4 shows the S and

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sulfate distributions in 2015 were slightly lower than in 2011. On land, marine shipping is a

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minor source of S compared to other sources.26-29

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Figure 4. Empirical cumulative distribution functions for representative measurement parameters (columns) and sampling sites (rows). Parameter TC (total carbon) is the sum of the elemental and



224 225

organic carbon (EC and OC, respectively) as reported by the thermal optical reflectance (TOR) method.

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Statistical analyses were explored to quantify the observed differences, as has been performed in

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previous studies.14 Since the PM data sets were not normally distributed, parametric statistical

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tests were not appropriate. Additionally, the national data set is large, so the prediction errors

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were artificially small, leading to potentially over-confident results. The Mood’s median test was

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performed to compare changes over each pair of years included in this study (i.e., 2011-2012,

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2012-2013, etc.). With a conservative alpha level of 0.001, the results matched the visual

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observations of the maps. Linear trend analyses were explored but were not found to be useful as

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the decrease in V and Ni concentrations presented as a step in the data rather than a gradual

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decrease. The results of these analyses are included in the supporting information.

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Daily V profiles for individual IMPROVE sites offer complementary views of the atmospheric

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response to the ECA regulations. Time-series plots for selected sites are shown in Figure 5 from

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2011 through 2016. The daily V concentrations at the coastal sites were normalized by the

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average of two inland sites (NEBR1 and WIMO1) aggregated over the entire study period

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(January 1, 2011 through December 31, 2016). The daily concentrations were normalized so that

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the progression towards rural inland levels is more clearly visible. Coastal sites were chosen by

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proximity to major shipping ports and high concentrations in 2011 while inland sites were

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chosen by proximity to the geographic center of the contiguous US. The vertical black line on

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January 1, 2012 indicates the shift from 4.5 to 3.5% sulfur content in fuel oils used outside an

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ECA while the vertical black line on January 1, 2015 indicates the shift from 3.5 to 0.1% sulfur

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content inside an ECA. The horizontal red line indicates a ratio of one between the coastal

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measurement and the average inland concentration. The summer V peaks are consistent with

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seasonal shipping trends, which also peak during the summer. The lingering high V 14 ACS Paragon Plus Environment

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concentrations at the Seattle, Washington (PUSO1) IMPROVE site in 2015 suggest that

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compliance in the Seattle/Tacoma harbors may have taken longer than along the east coast of the

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U.S., possibly due to differences in original source of fuel oil, vessel/engine types, low sulfur

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fuel availability, or enforcement practices. V concentrations at PUSO1 were lower in 2016 (3.1

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ng m-3 maximum daily value) than in 2015 (9.7 ng m-3 maximum daily value).

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Figure 5. Daily V concentrations at coastal sites were normalized by the average of V concentrations at two inland sites (NEBR1 and WIMO1, listed in Table 1) from January 1, 2011 through December 31, 2016. Sites in the top row (BRIS1, MAVI1, and SWAN1) are located on the eastern coast of the US while the sites in the bottom row (AGTI1, MAKA2, and PUSO1) are located on the western coast. The vertical black lines indicate significant IMO regulation start dates. The horizontal red line represents a ratio of one.

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Acknowledgements

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This work was supported by the National Park Service (National Park Service cooperative

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agreement P11AC91045). The assumptions, findings, conclusions, judgements, and views

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presented herein are those of the authors and should not be interpreted as necessarily



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representing the National Park Service policies. IMPROVE is a collaborative association of

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state, tribal, and federal agencies, and international partners. US Environmental Protection

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Agency is the primary funding source, with contracting and research support from the National

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Park Service. The Air Quality Research Center at the University of California, Davis is the

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central analytical laboratory, with ion analysis provided by Research Triangle Institute, and

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carbon analysis provided by Desert Research Institute.

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Supporting Information.

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•

Map of nickel concentrations similar to Figures 2 and 3

272

•

Example HYSPLIT trajectories from inland areas of interest, specifically Arizona and

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Oklahoma •

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The percent of measured values above the minimum detection limit for each IMPROVE site and measurement parameter included in this study

•

Step-by-step description of statistical analysis performed

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References

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1. UNCTAD 2017 Handbook of Statistics; United Nations: 2017. 2. Corbett, J. J.; Winebrake, J. J.; Green, E. H.; Kasibhatla, P.; Eyring, V.; Lauer, A., Mortality from ship emissions: A global assessment. Environ. Sci. Technol. 2007, 41, (24), 8512-8518. 3. IPCC Climate Change 2014: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fifth Assessment Report of theIntergovernmental Panel on Climate Change; Geneva, Switzerland, 2014. 4. Seinfeld, J. H.; Carmichael, G. R.; Arimoto, R.; Conant, W. C.; Brechtel, F. J.; Bates, T. S.; Cahill, T. A.; Clarke, A. D.; Doherty, S. J.; Flatau, P. J.; Huebert, B. J.; Kim, J.; Markowicz, K. M.; Quinn, P. K.; Russell, L. M.; Russell, P. B.; Shimizu, A.; Shinozuka, Y.; Song, C. H.; Tang, Y. H.; Uno, I.; Vogelmann, A. M.; Weber, R. J.; Woo, J. H.; Zhang, X. Y., ACE-ASIA - Regional climatic and atmospheric chemical effects of Asian dust and pollution. Bull. Amer. Meteorol. Soc. 2004, 85, (3), 367-380. 5. EPA, Designation of North American Emission Control Area to Reduce Emissions from Ships. In Office of Transportation and Air Quality, Ed. 2010. 16 ACS Paragon Plus Environment

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