ECONOMIC TURNAROUND
RECOVERY: ACC predicts U.S. chemical
output will rise 1.6% in 2010
T
HE ECONOMIC FREE FALL is over, and the end
of the recession is within sight, say economists at the American Chemistry Council, the U.S. chemical industry’s main trade association. Expect the U.S. economy to have hit bottom in the second quarter and then move into positive territory in the second half of the year, write T. Kevin Swift, chief economist, and Martha G. Moore, senior economic consultant, in ACC’s midyear outlook. And although a weak first half still means that U.S. chemical production will fall 8.1% this year compared with 2008, Swift and Moore are predicting a 1.6% rise in 2010 and a 2.2% increase in 2011. On the positive side this year, Swift and Moore point out, U.S. personal spending, consumer spending, existing home sales, and orders for durable goods were all up yearover-year in May. Globally, emerging Asian economies appear to be stabilizing, with production gains resuming. But slowing down the economic recovery are depressed U.S. automobile and new home markets, which are major users of chemicals and plastics. The ACC economists project that overall U.S. industrial production will drop 11.2% this year before rebounding by 1.9% in
A NOBEL GATHERING CONFERENCE: Laureates interact
with students, discuss chemical solutions to energy crisis
A
BOUT 580 chemistry graduate students and
postdocs from 67 countries mingled last week with 23 Nobel Laureates on the picturesque island of Lindau, in Germany’s Lake Constance. The annual conference has been bringing together Nobel Laureates and young scientists since 1951. It is an opportunity for students to listen to lectures by Nobel Laureates and to chat with the prizewinners in small groups. This year, the conference convened chemistry laureates, and there were two laureate panels: one deliberated the role chemistry can play in renewable energy, and another discussed global warming. Attending the event is “a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity,” says Faroha Liaqat, a chemistry graduate student at Quaid-i-Azam University, in Pakistan. At the Lindau conference, Nobel Laureates feel “like rock stars,” said Sir Harry Kroto, who won the 1996 Nobel Prize in Chemistry. “It’s very stimulating to be here,” 2007 Nobel Prize in Chemistry recipient Gerhard Ertl said. “The students are so bright and open-minded.”
Besides talking chemistry with the Nobel Laureates, students discover that “Nobel Prize winners are normal people,” said Britni J. Ratliff, a chemistry graduate student at the University of Chicago. Marissa Saunders, a chemistry graduate student at the University of Utah, said she feels encouraged by a chat with Ertl, who told students to stay strong when failure comes because it is an inevitable part of research. The students who attend the Lindau conference go through a nomination and selection process in their home countries. The late Swedish Count Lennart Bernadotte initiated the annual meeting, which aims “to inspire, educate, and connect,” his daughter, Countess Bettina Bernadotte, who now presides over the conference, said at the opening ceremony on June 28. To address the great challenges of our time, “we need knowledge, inspiration, and intellectual debate that transcends boundaries of discipline, of culture, or of geography,” she told delegates. “We want you to use Lindau to make these connections.”—SARAH EVERTS
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ECONOMISTS SEE END TO RECESSION
Industry group forecasts recovery in U.S.
2010. By contrast, they project chemical output in 2010 world industrial production % change from previous year to fall 8.5% this year before re5 covering by 2.3% in 2010. For U.S. chemical produc0 ers, “margins will be challenged for a couple of years mostly because of industry –5 overcapacity,” notes Frederick M. Peterson, president of –10 business consultants Probe 2007 08 09 10 Economics. However, he sees SOURCE: American Chemistry Council some strong quarters ahead for chemical makers as their customers restock depleted inventories. Dennis Cassidy Jr., a principal at management consulting firm Booz & Co., also sees some rays of hope, but he notes that government stimulus spending still hasn’t had a measurable impact on the industrial economy. “No one is building inventory today in anticipation of stimulus spending,” Cassidy points out. “Right now, most are still drawing down inventories to maximize their cash position.” Even less optimistic is chemical stock analyst John Roberts of Buckingham Research Group, who says most companies would characterize improvements so far “as less than a normal seasonal pickup.” And although Roberts acknowledges some economic bright spots, he observes that oil prices are rising. Should that trend continue, he questions whether the U.S. chemical industry will see a sustained recovery.—MARC REISCH
Richard Ernst, the winner of the 1991 Nobel Prize in Chemistry, chats with student delegates.
