News of the Week distinctly cyclical, to the point that their performance in recessions magnifies the general trend in the industry. SPFs estimated 11.8% de cline in resin output in 1980 is quite a bit more than the 4 to 5% overall production decline in basic chemicals and polymers measured by the Fed eral Reserve Board. SPFs estimates are based on 10 months of data com piled by accountants Ernst & Whinney for SPFs committee on resin statistics. Even so, plastics enjoyed a superb upswing in the business expansion preceding the 1980 recession. In 1979, plastics' record output of 39.5 billion lb was up fully 83% from 1975 and up 41% from the 1974 peak in the previ ous business expansion. G
Fertilizer industry expects record year The fertilizer industry is sending out mixed signals again. Despite a lack luster first half, U.S. fertilizer con sumption may reach new heights in the fertilizer year ending June 30. Then again, it may not. Although phosphate rock exports decreased in the July to December period, exports of finished fertilizers (notably phos phates) rose sharply. Now, however, there are signs that the export boom may be ending. At the Fertilizer Institute's annual meeting in Chicago, institute presi dent Edwin M. Wheeler predicted that U.S. fertilizer consumption likely will exceed 55 million tons this fer tilizer year, 4.5% more than last year's record 52.6 million tons. That's if everything goes right. There are some favorable signs: the prospect of higher prices for farm commodities, projections of increased plantings, and continuing strong de mand for U.S. farm products. Be cause of the high cost of credit, how ever, retail fertilizer inventories are
Fertilizer consumption rises 1 % Indax chang·, JulyDocsmbor 1980 vs. 1979 ProEnding Domestic dueInvandisappearlion tory arte·
Nitrogen products Processed phosphates8 Potash products Mixtures All products
6% 7 -1 -12 5
-2% 20 8 -4 0
7% -5 -4 -20 1
a Excludes some product types. Source: Fertilizer Institute
10
C&EN Feb. 9, 1981
low (with some consequent bulges in producer inventories). Also low are water levels in major navigable rivers. "A booming load of orders on the railroads," resulting from the in creasing uncertainty of barge ship ments, "could well lead to chaos," Wheeler says, and make it impossible to meet farmers' fertilizer needs. The current fertilizer year didn't start auspiciously. According to latest institute figures, total U.S. fertilizer consumption, in terms of "domestic disappearance," lagged behind 1979 levels from July through November, then jumped ahead in December. For the six months, total consumption increased a scant 1%, compared to the 1979 period. Actually, the only cate gory showing an increase was nitrogen products, up 7%. Despite rising am monia imports, fears of a glut are fading (C&EN, Jan. 26, page 15). During the period, domestic disap pearance was down about 5% for phosphate products, 4% for potash products, and 20% for mixtures. Although phosphate rock exports decreased 16% in the first six months, export demand for processed phos phates was strong, the institute notes. July to December exports of concen trated superphosphate and diammonium phosphate rose 11% and 41%, respectively, compared to the year-earlier period. However, some of the rise in phosphate exports can be attributed to bargain-hunting occa sioned by rising production and slack demand in the U.S., and it may be followed by an offsetting drop this year. In any event, year-end inven tories of phosphate products, as a group, were 20% higher than at the end of 1979. •
Agencies not worried by regulatory freeze President Reagan's 60-day freeze on all new federal regulations caused a flurry of excitement last week, but its impact on the regulatory agencies' programs seems to be small. Most agencies find that only minor rules will be delayed and they are mindful that regulations that have been only proposed can be worked on as usual. Reagan's much publicized move is supposed to allow the new Adminis tration time to review those regula tions rushed into the Federal Register at the end of the Carter Presidency and to assure that they are cost ef fective and necessary under the ap propriate laws. Specifically, Reagan
ordered his Cabinet and the acting administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency to delay the ef fective date of regulations for 60 days and to not issue any new rules during that time. The freeze expires March 30. A quick survey by EPA finds that it has 26 regulations delayed by the order. A spokesman for the agency says most of these involve very minor changes and will not create any sig nificant costs. Some are simply ap provals of changes in state air pollu tion laws. Two major regulations have been delayed. One sets pretreatment standards for heavy metals and toxic chemicals in industrial effluent streams that pass through public water treatment plants. The second sets tougher water pollutant stan dards for manufacturers of certain wood products. Ironically, the freeze has delayed waivers for auto manufacturers that would permit them to make cars that emit more carbon monoxide and ni trogen oxides than previously set levels allow. Some regulations from the Occu pational Safety & Health Adminis tration fall into the 60-day dry spell, too. OSHA's revised policy for regu lation of cancer-causing chemicals in the workplace, changed to comply with last year's Supreme Court order regarding benzene, was to go into ef fect Feb. 18 but now will have to wait. The same situation faces the agency's new rule requiring employers to pay employees for the time they spend away from their jobs accompanying OSHA inspectors on plant inspec tions. OSHA's recent rule for labeling all chemical substances in the work place is a proposed rule and is not, therefore, affected by the President's order. The Food & Drug Administration seems typical in its unconcern about the freeze. A spokesman there says most of the rules coming up are rou tine and a delay in the effective dates will not have much effect on anyone. Of some concern, however, is FDA's inability tofinalizeits list of approved color additives. The approved list was scheduled to be published this month and the recent expiration of the pre vious list technically has made the sale of thousands of consumer prod ucts containing these additives illegal. FDA is seeking an exemption from the freeze to correct this problem, but, in the meantime, the agency will not take any action against those manufacturers using the color addi tives. Ρ
