Chemical & Engineering News 1155—16th St., N.W., Washington, D.C. 20036 Editor: Albert F. Plant Managing Editor: Michael Heylin Assistant Managing Editors: David M. Kiefer, James H. Krieger, Donald J. Soisson, Fred H. Zerkel Senior Editor: Earl V. Anderson (New York) Senior Associate Editor: Howard J. Sanders Associate Editor: Ernest L. Carpenter Assistant Editors: P. Christopher Murray, Rebecca L. Rawls, Richard J. Seltzer, Karen Joy Skinner Editorial Assistant: Theresa L. Rome Editing Services: Joyce A. Richards (Head) Editorial Reference: Barbara A. Gallagher (Head). Elizabeth Pohlhaus (Indexer) Graphics and Production: Bacil Guiley (Head). Leroy Corcoran (Manager). John V. Sinnett (Art Director). Norman W. Favin (Designer) NTEWS BUREAUS: New York: William F. Fallwell (Head). Chicago: Ward Worthy (Head), Joseph Haggin (Staff Writer). Houston: Bruce F. Greek (Head). Washington: Fred H. Zerkel (Head), Ling-yee C. Gibney, Janice R. Long (Assistant Editors) FOREIGN BUREAUS: London: Dermot A. O'Suliivan (Head). Tokyo: Michael K. McAbee (Head) ADVISORY BOARD: Alfred E. Brown, Mary Carter, Theodore L. Cairns, Marcia Coleman, Arthur W. Galston, Derek P. Gregory, James D. Idol Jr., Gerald D. Laubach, Richard D. Mullineaux, Paul F. Oreffice, Rustum Roy, Edward R. Thornton, Herbert L. Torr, M. Kent Wilson Published by AMERICAN CHEMICAL SOCIETY (202)-872-4600 Robert W. Cairns, Executive Director Division of Public, Professional & International Communication Arthur Poulos, Editorial Promotion Marion Gurfein, Circulation Development EDITORIAL BOARD: Mary L. Good (Chairman), Herman S. Bloch, Bryce Crawford Jr., Anna J. Harrison, Robert W. Parry, Glenn T. Seaborg, B. R. Stanerson; President-Elect: Henry A. Hill; Representative Council Publications Committee: Ernest L. Eliel; Past-President: William J. Bailey © Copyright 1976, American Chemical Society Subscription Service: Send all new and renewal subscriptions with payment to: Office of the Controller, ACS, 1155—16th St., N.W., Washington, D.C. 20036. All correspondence and telephone calls regarding changes of address, claims for missing issues, subscription service, status of records and accounts should be directed to: Manager, Membership and Subscription Services, ACS, P.O. Box 3337, Columbus, Ohio 43210; telephone 614-421-7230. On changes of address, include both old and new addresses with ZIP code numbers, accompanied by mailing label from a recent issue. Allow four weeks for change to become effective. Claims for missing numbers will not be allowed if loss was due to failure of notice of change of address to be received in the time specified; if claim is dated (a) North America: more than 90 days beyond issue date, (b) all other foreign: more than one year beyond issue date; or if the reason given is "missing from files." Subscription Rates 1976: nonmembers, U.S. 1 yr. $15, 3 yr. $32; Pan American Union $22.50, $54.50; Canada and other nations $23, $56. Air freight rates available on request. Single copies: Current $1.00. Rates for back issues and volumes are available from Special Issues Sales Dept., ACS, 1155—16th St., N.W., Washington, D.C. 20036. An annual index is available for $25. Standing orders are accepted. Back and current issues are available on microfilm. For further information, contact Special Issues Sales. Published by ACS from 20th and Northampton Sts., Easton, Pa., weekly except for an extra issue in April and except the last week in December. Second class postage paid at Washington, D.C, and at additional mailing offices. ACS assumes no responsibility for the statements and opinions advanced by the contributors to its publications. Views expressed in the editorials are those of the editors and do not necessarily represent the official position of ACS. Advertising Management CENTCOM, LTD. (For list of offices see page 39)
2 C&EN May 10, 1976
Editorial
An alternative view of the world Like at least 3 million others across the world in 1972,1 read the Club of Rome's treatise on impending disaster, 'The Limits to Growth," and naturally was disturbed by its predictions of famine, pollution, and international disorder. It also became a prime tool of no-growth advocates, who pointed to the book's conclusions as proof that our present world economic policy was rapidly carrying us down the road to worldwide economic and social collapse. Recently, of course, the Club of Rome gave us a tentative reprieve from this disaster, when it backed away a little from its earlier predictions. Needless to say, this reprieve allowed me to get a good night's sleep for the first time in four years—we finally had a chance again. Now it turns out that I needn't have worried at all over those years; Herman Kahn, director of the Hudson Institute, says we will soon be entering history's highest period of economic growth and that the year 2176 AD will find us still alive and well. The world's population will be stabilized at about 15 billion. Presently existing energy supplies will have been enough to carry us through the transition to external energy sources, such as solar and ocean thermal energy; and food production limitations will have been overcome by improved agricultural techniques in conjunction with synthetic foods and food substitutes. The Hudson Institute scenario, published in a book called, 'The Next 200 Years—A Scenario for America and the World," does present a prehistorical perspective that appears easier to believe than the earlier predictions of disaster. It also appears more in line with past history, which has somehow skirted all the previous disaster predictions made over years past. It recognizes the fact that alternative solutions will occur and will always play havoc with those who simply extrapolate the present into the future for more than just a few years. Technological alternatives will play a big part in the Hudson Institute's scenario. It will be these that will produce the alternative energy and food sources and also provide the machinery by which the poor nations of the world will raise themselves closer to international equality and pave the way for the social and economic alternatives that bypass the disaster points of "Limits to Growth" extrapolations. The world scientific and engineering community will naturally be the sources for these technological alternatives. Many of them are already being worked on. An International Conference on Engineering & Food, for example, this coming August in Boston will pinpoint current research in synthetic foods and even discuss the future need for research into the total synthesis of foods. Although underfunded, solar and other energy research programs are under way in many areas of the U.S. We can stop our list there, but even these two research efforts point to the vital role science and technology must and will play in solving future problems. I don't think anybody is willing to say the Hudson group's projections for the next 200 years will be completely, or even largely, correct. To some extent, particular accuracy is immaterial. I think the important thing to remember is that each of us is a contributing factor to whatever the end result will be and that as long as we maintain a viable scientific and engineering research effort we needn't let postulated disasters force us into hasty and ill-conceived actions. At the same time, we do need to recognize that everybody views things differently—witness the Club of Rome vs. Hudson Institute—and our job is to see that the needed research is funded and carried out. That in itself is probably the most important task facing us today. Albert F. Plant
C&EN editorials represent only the views of the author and aim at initiating intelligent discussion.
