A market researcher for one boric acid company says that he has given up trying to come up with numbers for 1978. "I'm just trying to keep abreast of what's happening in Washington," he says. But even after this year straightens itself out, he still has to worry about the future. The tremendous growth in cellulosic insulation has been triggered primarily by the residential retrofit market. With high heating bills and the promise of tax incentives, home owners have been swarming to insulate their homes. Blown-in cellulosic insulation is a natural for this market. The big question is how long will the retrofit market last, and there are differing opinions on this, too. One benchmark is the study conducted by the Department of Commerce's Office of Business Research & Analysis. Assuming that 25.5 million homes were available for retrofit starting last year, Commerce figured the residential retrofit market for cellulosic insulation would disappear sometime between 1980 and 1982, depending on different assumptions about the character of the houses. Many within the industry itself believe that the retrofit market will linger well beyond 1985. One reason is that the retrofit market may be larger than Commerce estimates. Some say as many as 50 million homes need retrofit insulation. Another is that some retrofit jobs have been poorly done and need reretrofitting. Regardless of when it happens, demand for cellulosic insulation will drop substantially once the retrofit program is completed. Some observers believe that retrofit demand will peak at about 2.8 million to 3 million tons, then drop drastically. But what happens after that also is important to the long-term future of boric acid. Some say, once the retrofit demand is satisfied, demand for cellulosic insulation will continue to decline as contractors revert back to glass fiber. Predicasts, a Cleveland-based market research firm, apparently feels this way. In a study on home energy conservation products, Ron Stibich, the firm's manager of lindustrial research, estimates that demand for cellulosic insulation will grow from 285,000 tons in 1976 to 1.15 million tons in 1980. After that, demand will decline to 320,000 tons in 1985 and continue downward to 200,000 tons by 1990. Predicasts' figures are for the residential insulation market, both retrofit and new construction. But the decline that Stibich predicts illustrates the effect of losing the retrofit market. Many in the construction business agree with Stibich's scenario. Others, particularly in the cellulosic insulation industry, do not. For instance, CFI Associates' MacKenzie agrees that cellulosic demand will drop to a lower plateau once the retrofit market is exhausted. After that, however, he thinks that demand will start climbing slowly upward again. There are other markets out there besides retrofit, he says. Demand in new construc-
tion and commercial and light industrial installations, although now small, likely will increase by then. The industry, he says, is "just a babe in the woods" as far as technology is concerned. And he believes that it is on the threshold of a lot of new developments. Meanwhile, a more immediate problem is boric acid availability if the cellulosic insulation market rebounds from its current slump and its boric acid requirements take off again as they did last year. The Department of Commerce is constantly updating its reports on boric acid supply. And although even its most recent estimates (February) probably are out of date already, they indicate just how large a market cellulosic insulation can be for boric acid. Assuming that cellulosic production this year is even 1.33 million tons, boric acid requirements would range from 66,500 to 133,000 tons, depending on whether an average 5% or 10% loading (by weight) is used. At the higher level, it would outdistance the combined demand in all of boric acid's other domestic markets. If Commerce's estimate of effective capacity (90% of nameplate) is correct, the industry could produce 200,000 tons of boric acid if it is operated full out. Backing out 25,000 tons for captive use, 35,000 tons for exports, and setting aside 83,000 tons for other domestic markets, the three U.S. boric acid producers would have only 57,000 tons available for cellulosic insulation. The remainder would have to be
made up by imports (an estimated 20,000 tons this year) and by using boric acid extenders such as the new acid-sulfate products. Expansions ar.e in the works, however. U.S. Borax & Chemical is building a new 200,000 ton-per-year plant at Boron, Calif. When it is completed in mid-1980, an existing unit (about 100,000 tons) at Wilmington, Calif., will be phased out. Kerr-McGee is modifying an existing chemical plant at West End on Searles Lake, Calif., to produce boric acid. With this unit, along with its other boric acid plant at Trona, the company should be able to boost this year's production 200% over what it was in 1976. Stauffer, the third producer, with an estimated 35,000-ton unit at San Francisco, hasn't announced any expansion plans. Based on only two months' data, imports are continuing to pour into the country. If the import rate continues, this year's total could reach close to 40,000 tons, three times last year's volume and double Commerce's estimates. Meanwhile, boric acid exports have been running at a 40,000-ton annual rate through the first two months of this year. These exports soon will become the subject of Senate hearings. In fact, Sen. Ford had scheduled hearings this week, but he postponed them until after a standards bill is passed. His concern: Why allow boric acid exports to leave the country in such large volumes, when they are urgently needed here in the U.S.? D
Big finishing touch for caustic soda at PPG Although most photographs of chlorine-caustic soda plants show only the large electrolytic cell areas with row upon row of cell assemblies, there is a finishing touch needed for caustic soda—a big one. Shown above at PPG Industries' new chlorine-caustic plant addition at Lake Charles, La., the final step for caustic involves huge tandem evaporators to concentrate the alkali. These evaporators, which PPG calls possibly the world's largest, range up to 135 feet in height and 40 feet in diameter. The units tower over the rest of the expanded plant, which now has additional capacity for 750 tons per day of chlorine and 825 tons of caustic soda. This expansion is the first phase of a proposed two-phase project that ultimately would double chlorine-caustic capacity at Lake Charles.
April 10, 1978 C&EN
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