International
Brazil takes aim at benzene self-sufficiency Even with its petrochemical industry growing, Brazil still has benzene deficit, but one analysis projects balance in supply and demand by 1983 In 1979, Brazil imported 20,000 metric tons of benzene and a large volume of benzene derivatives. Last year benzene imports probably increased and derivatives imports went up along with them. This has been the consistent and sad story of Brazil's petrochemical buildup—a perennial shortage of aromatics in general and of benzene in particular. It still is true today, even though the country's second major petrochemical pole (petrochemical complexes are called "poles" in Brazil) at Camacari in the state of Bahia has been operating for two years now with a benzene capacity of 130,000 metric tons per year. One reason for Brazil's persistent benzene shortage is that its petrochemical industry is built on naphtha cracking. That means that ethylene is king. Crackers are operated at rates designed primarily to meet olefins demand.
The problem is that in Brazil demand for benzene derivatives, especially in fibers, has grown faster than demand for olefins, which focus on the plastics market. Because only small volumes of benzene are produced from coking operations and in refineries (the petrochemical poles account for about 86% of benzene output in Brazil), the country has had to live with benzene deficits. One of its cherished petrochemical goals for the first half of the eighties is to erase that benzene deficit. It wants to become self-sufficient in benzene, eliminate imports of benzene and its derivatives that put a strain on its already-strained balance of payments account, and, hopefully, even enjoy some excess benzene capacity so that it can start exporting benzene and the products made from it. Can Brazil do it? Yes, says Petroquisa's Julius I. Szwarc and Napoleao Malheiro. In a recent analysis of Brazil's benzene outlook through 1985, the two Petroquisa analysts indicate that the country's benzene supply-demand balance will come close to equilibrium in 1982. Starting in 1983, there will be more capacity than the country will need to meet domestic demand. By 1985, that benzene surplus could range from 49,000 to 67,000 metric tons.
Brazil's benzene supply soon may overtake demand Thousands of metric tons 700 Γ 600 t
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Capacity I Demand (average)
500 400 300 200 100
1980
1981
Source: Petrobras Quimica (Petroquisa)
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C&EN Jan. 5, 1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
This will be true, Szwarc and Malheiro say, despite the strong growth in benzene demand forecast for Brazil. Estimates of this growth vary from source to source, but most settle in at about 11% average annual growth. The Petroquisa team set their "low" estimate of domestic benzene demand for 1985 at 560,000 metric tons. Their "high" estimate is 578,000 metric tons. In arriving at these estimates, they limit demand in some cases by actual market requirements. In others, available capacity of various benzene derivatives is the restraining factor. The big question about Brazil's future benzene supply-demand balance, however, is on the supply side of the equation. Not all forecasters agree with Szwarc and Malheiro that Brazil, indeed, will enjoy a benzene surplus before 1985. On the contrary, some say that Brazil will continue with a benzene deficit that could reach more than 100,000 metric tons per year by 1984-85. Present benzene capacity is about 305,000 metric tons per year. But this will start increasing soon. Next month, Petrobras, the state-owned oil company, will increase benzene capacity of its Sâo Paulo refinery from 20,000 metric tons per year to 38,000 metric tons. Also next month, Copene, the company that operates the core units at the Camacari complex, will increase benzene capacity from 130,000 to 147,500 metric tons. Later this year, Petroquimica Uniao will increase benzene capacity 5000 metric tons, to 135,000 metric tons. The company operates the core units of the country's first petrochemical pole in Sâo Paulo. Late next year, construction of Brazil's third major petrochemical pole at Rio Grande do Sul is scheduled to be finished. Copesul, the company handling the core units, will have a benzene capacity of 115,000 metric tons. Copesul expects to operate at about 70% of capacity in 1983 and at full capacity after that. After 1983, Brazil's benzene capacity picture gets out of focus. Those who say that there will continue to be a growing benzene shortage base their argument on the absence of announced plans for major expansions after that. But Petroquisa's Szwarc
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Most of Brazil's benzene capacity buildup will occur in petrochemical complexes
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Benzene capacity, thousands of metric tons 700 600 500
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