The Chemical World This Week
GRAD SCIENCE ENROLLMENT ON THE WAY RACK? Enrollment of science and engineering graduate students, in decline since 1969, may be bottoming out. The crystal ball is clouded at present. However, according to a justreleased National Science Foundation survey and other sources, contraction seems to have halted and the number of students in some disciplines is increasing. The NSF survey of 360 selected graduate departments at doctorategranting schools finds that full-time graduate science and engineering enrollment in fall 1974 was 4.1% greater than in fall 1973. It also finds that enrollment of first-year students is up by about 4%. Enrollment of graduate science and engineering students has been decreasing for four years, NSF figures show. Using 1967 as a base of 100, enrollment dropped from 104.0 in 1969 to 95.3 in 1973. Firstyear enrollment dropped even more, from 99.6 in 1969 to 85.6 in 1973. Decreases and increases have been quite selective for different scientific fields, it appears. In the current survey, for example, almost all the 1974 increase stems from a rise in enrollments in life sciences of 12.7%, primarily due to a 17.2% boost for biological sciences. The survey results continue a rising curve for life sciences—which include biochemistry, biophysics, pharmacology, and other chemistry-related fields. Life sciences grew from a base of 100 in 1967 to 105.1 in 1970, and held steady in
Grad science enrollment up, first time since 1969 Index, 1967 = 100 110r
100
901
1967 68
69
70
71
72
73 74·
a 1974 figure based on extrapolation from sample of 360 graduate departments. Note: Full-time graduate students in science and engineering. Source: National Science Foundation
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C&EN Feb. 3, 1975
1970-73 before beginning their current rapid rise. Meanwhile, engineering and physical and mathematical sciences have essentially the same 1974 enrollments as in 1973. There is no rise, but this halts a previous steady downtrend. Physical sciences (including chemistry) dropped from a maximum of 101.4 in 1968 to 81.3 in 1973, and engineering declined from 102.0 in 1970 to 91.5 in 1973. The NSF survey does not cover individual disciplines. However, there are indications that a bottoming-out process already may have begun in 1973 for chemistry and chemical engineering. For example, there were 15.6% more first-year full-time graduate students in chemical engineering in 1973 than in 1972, and 2.7% more in chemistry. An American Chemical Society check of selected departments, to be ready this month, should shed more light on current enrollments. Establishing graduate enrollment trends and projections is important in determining future supplies of scientists and engineers. However, it is also a very difficult task, plagued by lack of reliable data, sometimes incompatible sampling
and survey methods, and errors in interpretation, notes Betty Vetter, executive director of the Scientific Manpower Commission. The current situation is especially "confusing," she says, because "the old trends are no guide any more.' ' However, she observes, overall graduate school enrollments have been increasing steadily. All fields have grown except physical and mathematical sciences and engineering, which have dropped. Now, Vetter believes, engineering is starting back up, particularly at the undergraduate level. Preliminary data show an increase of 12 to 15% in current freshman engineering classes compared to last year. "We're already into a shortage of engineers," she points out. But the proportion of engineers going to graduate school may drop. As for graduate enrollments in physical sciences, she expects a plateau at best for the next few years. There seems to be a balance of supply and demand for chemists. However, she projects an oversupply of biologists and other life scientists. In fact, some students may be pursuing graduate studies in biology because they cannot find jobs this year, she adds. G
Chloroprene is latest cancer scare The National Institute for Occupational Safety & Health says it is very concerned about the possibility that 2-chlorobutadiene, better known as chloroprene, may be a human carcinogen. This possibility was first brought to NIOSH's attention in late December when Du Pont informed the agency that a literature search had turned up two Russian articles that suggest an increased incidence of skin and lung cancer in workers exposed to chloroprene. Two other Russian articles described animal experiments in which chloroprene adversely affected embryo development in rats and mice. According to NIOSH, the Soviet studies report the results of a largescale epidemiological investigation of industrial workers in the Yerevan region of the U.S.S.R. During the period 1956 to 1970, 137 cases of skin cancer were discovered through the examination of 24,989 persons over age 25. The study found that
3% of the workers exposed to chloroprene and 1.6% of people working in industries using chloroprene derivatives developed skin cancer, compared to only 0.4% for persons working in nonchemical industries. The chloroprene workers who developed skin cancer had an average age of 59.6 years and an average duration of employment of 9.5 years. During the same period, 87 cases of lung cancer also were identified. Again the group exposed to chloroprene or its derivatives had the highest incidence of lung cancer— 1.16%. These workers' average age. was 44.5 years and they had an average duration of employment of 8.7 years. Of the 34 cases of lung cancer in this group, 18 were among persons having a direct and prolonged exposure to chloroprene monomer, the remaining 16 were persons whose exposure was to chloroprene latexes. NIOSH estimates that currently about 2500
workers in the U.S. are exposed to chloroprene. Du Pont, which is the major U.S. producer of isoprene and of its polymer, Neoprene, has alerted its employees and customers to the Soviet findings. The company also is conducting an epidemiological study of employees at its two chloroprene and three Neoprene plants, and animal toxicity studies. The Soviet findings apparently run counter to Du Pont's experi ence. A check of employees at the firm's Louisville plant from 1957 to 1974 found no statistically sig nificant increase in skin and lung cancers between Du Pont em ployees and a nonexposed group. Du Pont says several questions concerning the Soviet studies still need to be answered, including how high a concentration of chloroprene the workers were exposed to, the duration of their exposures, and what they also might have been ex posed to. Du Pont has asked the Soviet Ministry of Public Health to allow three of the company's scientists to visit Moscow to discuss the papers in question. G
1974 chemical trade reaches new highs The U.S. chemical industry con tributed a $4.8 billion surplus to the country's trade balance last year and kept a $3 billion overall trade deficit from becoming even worse. Chemical exports jumped an impressive 53.5% in 1974 to almost $9 billion. Growth in chemical im ports was even more impressive. They advanced 63.8% and ended the year at just under $4 billion. All of the figures—chemical ex ports, imports, and the resulting trade surplus—are new record highs and reflect the important role that international trade plays in the chemical industry. Both chemical exports and imports have doubled in the past two years. However, the dollar values are spiced with a good dose of inflation. In real terms, growth of U.S. chemical trade is substantially less. Real or inflated, the 1974 chemi cal trade surplus is a welcome addi tion to the overall U.S. trade bal ance, which suffered its second largest deficit in 80 years. In 1972, the U.S. trade deficit was $6.4 bil lion. In 1973, the trade balance moved back into the black, but it was short-lived. Last year, the U.S. chalked up another deficit—this time it was $3.1 billion. It isn't hard to find the culprit in
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last year's trade picture. High oil prices more than tripled the U.S. oil import bill to some $24 billion and sent total U.S. imports soaring over the $100 billion mark ($101 billion) for the first time in history. Total U.S. exports were nothing to be ashamed of. They increased from $71 billion in 1973 to almost $98 billion last year, a 33% ad vance. In the last quarter of the year, exports were leaving the country at an annual rate of $100 billion for the first time. According to Secretary of Commerce Freder ick B. Dent, the U.S. trade surplus would have been $14 billion last year had it not been for the higher costs of imported oil. The year-end trade statistics compiled by the Bureau of the Cen sus shed some new light on the cost of bringing foreign chemicals into the U.S. Traditionally, Census re ports imports on a customs-value basis, which generally represents the value in a foreign country. Last year, for the first time, it reported import statistics on a c.i.f. basis (cost, insurance, freight) as well. This move was prompted by many Congressmen who felt that U.S. failure to report imports on a c.i.f. basis gives a false (and much better) picture of the U.S. trade balance. Last year, for instance, the $4 billion in chemical imports (customs-value) were equivalent to $4.3 billion on a c.i.f. basis. G
Advice on science adviser conflicting Does the President need a science adviser? This question was posed in a symposium on formulating science policy at the American As sociation for the Advancement of Science's annual meeting in New York City last week. The answer arrived at by the nine symposium participants was no. They did agree on the need for a science input into an Administration's policy delib
erations, but disagreed on how this might best be obtained. Dr. Edward E. David Jr., the last person to hold the position of science adviser before it was abolished by President Nixon, warned against imposing a statutory position on the President. Instead, he suggests setting up an Office of Engineering & Science Manage ment similar to the present Office of Management & Budget. The of fice could be given programatic overview of all federal agency R&D and provide an input to OMB on funding science activities. It also would conduct long-term policy studies and advise the White House on science matters. However, George Reedy, who served as press secretary under President Johnson and is now dean of journalism at Marquette Univer sity, took a different view. Reedy feels that when a President genuine ly needs science advice—which is not quite so often as is assumed— it should be on an ad hoc basis provided by a committee brought together to advise on one subject. Several participants pointed out that one lesson learned from the demise of the previous science office was the need for a science adviser, in whatever guise, to be discreet. They pointed out that what ap peared to have finally killed the science office was the impression that its members were lobbying for a particular science point of view rather than advising the President. D
Fiber losses crimp fourth-quarter net A rough rule of thumb is emerging for fourth-quarter performance by chemical companies. How well a company did depended largely on how little it had to do with syn thetic fibers. Unhappily, the largest U.S. chemical company, Du Pont, also is the largest force in synthetic fibers. The drop in Du Pont's fourth-quar ter earnings—more than $100 mil lion from fourth-quarter 1973 or 76%—will have a significant effect on the earnings performance of the whole basic chemical industry. Du Pont's sales still managed a 5% gain in the fourth quarter to $1.63 bil lion. Du Pont chairman Irving S. Shapiro lays the fourth-quarter earnings falloff directly to demand downturns in textiles, automobiles, and housing. Hence, the explana tion for the company's notably poor performance in 1974 has shifted. Feb. 3, 1975C&EN
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