Cold Fusion Fiasco - C&EN Global Enterprise (ACS Publications)

Jan 13, 1992 - With the Utah State Legislature meeting in emergency session and allocating $5 million to cold fusion research and with the U.S. Depart...
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Cold Fusion Fiasco Reviewed by Trevor Pinch hen two chemists, B. Stanley Pons and Martin Fleischmann, announced to the world's press on March 23, 1989, that they had discovered fusion in a test tube, they launched the equivalent of a scientific gold rush. And the gold was to be found everywhere—at least in any well-equipped laboratory. Within a day of that infamous Utah press conference, physicist Stephen Jones at nearby Brigham Young University claimed that he, too, had been detecting neutrons from a cold fusion cell. Within weeks, confirmations came in from all over. By April the discovery seemed assured. With the Utah State Legislature meeting in emergency session and allocating $5 million to cold fusion research and with the U.S. Department of Energy setting up a special panel to allocate millions more, Nobel Prizes, national recovery, and a new age of limitless pollution-free energy loomed. Alas, it was not to be. Gold became fool's gold. Some of the early confirmations were soon retracted. Negative results were reported from many national laboratories. And the puzzle of how the reaction could produce excess heat without producing more than enough neutrons to have long ago killed both experimenters would not go away. By the time of the May meeting of the American Physical Society in Baltimore, the tide had turned. With accusations of fraud and delusion in the air, cold fusion was on the way out. The Department of Energy money never transpired. Some positive results were reported, but never enough to convince scientists that the effect was a repeatable one. Two years later, the Utah Cold Fusion Laboratory was closed down. Now we have a race to tell the story of cold fusion. Frank Close has won this race by a short head. But his haste shows; his book, "Too Hot to Handle: The Story of the Race for Cold Fusion," is full of annoying and unnecessary repetitions. Eugene F. Mallove's ac-

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Two books reinforce illogical thinking about good and bad science by adhering to an unrealistic model of how science works "Too Hot to Handle: The Story of the Race for Cold Fusion/' by Frank Close, Princeton University Press, Princeton, N.J. 08540, 376 pages, 1991, $24.95; and "Fire from Ice: Searching for the Truth behind the Cold Fusion Furor/' by Eugene F. Mallove, John Wiley & Sons, 605 Third Ave., New York, N.Y. 10158-0012,1991, 334 pages, $22.95

count, "Fire from Ice: Searching for the Truth behind the Cold Fusion Furor/' is better written, but it contains a surprise. Mallove, unlike Close, thinks cold fusion may still be real. Is this because Close missed some crucial evidence? No, it is merely that in these books the dynamics of the controversy are being replayed at the popular level. During a scientific controversy, the warring factions dispute the

. evidence, and what is taken to be definitive by one side lacks compulsion to the other. Now we find the same thing going on in these popular accounts. Cold fusion may be dead, but as is usual in scientific controversies, the losing side refuses to lie down. Pons, Fleischmann, and a loyal band of followers continue to fight the good fight, claiming that—although the experiments are much trickier than they once seemed—there is still gold to be found. Failure to replicate may be temporary, resulting from poorly understood conditions. This is Mallove's position as well. Time magazine recently cited the cold fusion fiasco as evidence of a crisis of confidence in American science. So what lessons are there to be learned? Unfortunately, both books, rather than clarifying matters, muddy the waters further. As I shall argue below, both have an inadequate understanding of the nature of scientific controversies. There is much to praise in the books. Both provide superb accounts of the content of the science. Close, a physicist at Oak Ridge National Laboratory and, at Britain's Rutherford Laboratory, knows personally many of the scientists involved. Mallove was trained as an astronautical engineer and environmental scientist and when he wrote the book was chief science writer for the news office at Massachusetts Institute of Technology. We find the technical details of the seemingly simple deuteriumpalladium cell spelled out in easy-tounderstand terms. The theoretical complexities of fusion and the possiblities of neutron-free fusion are meticulously detailed, particularly by Mallove. Indeed, it is in discussing these possibilities that we find the greatest disparity between the two books. Close shares the views of most physicists that cold fusion is theoretically impossible, whereas Mallove, by focusing on a few deviant theories of neutronless fusion, makes the point that theoretical impossiblity should not be used to castigate the luckless experimenter. All the excitement of science at the

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frontiers of research is to be found in these books. They make gripping reading. We learn about the dramatic scramble for scarce palladium rods and about scientists staying up all night to nurse their electrolytic cells as the gold rush developed. Hard information was hard to come by. Electronic networks, faxes, and even videotapes of press conferences were scanned for elusive details of someone else's exact experimental setup. Science by press conference was born as scientists rushed to pontificate to the constantly attendant media circus. We follow the swings of belief as scientists rode the cold fusion roller coaster. We learn of the chemist's Woodstock (the April 1989 American Chemical Society meeting in Dallas) where Pons was lauded as a hero, and the physicists' Altamont (the May 1989 American Physical Society meeting in Baltimore) where cold fusion was all but destroyed. According to Close, media coverage in part explains the demise of Pons and Heischmann. They were rushed into premature disclosure by worries that the Brigham Young group was about to go public. Pons and Fleischmann, once they learned Jones was seeing neutrons, hastily carried out their own neutron experiments. It was here that they had least expertise; their measurements were pulled apart by the physicists. Indeed, Close's account mainly follows the standard line that the burden of proof for cold fusion lies heavily on the neutron measurements: See no neutrons and you see no cold fusion. Mallove, on the other hand, concentrates on the area where Pons and Heischmann were acknowledged experts—the electrochemistry and excess heat measurements. Mallove claims that many other groups have seen similar anomalous phenomena here. Both books go wrong in that they reinforce flip-flop thinking about good and bad science. If you adhere to an unrealistic model of science, you will see only bad science in the cold fusion controversy. This unrealistic model assumes scientists have some privileged way of obtaining access to the truth that is independent of human skill, argument, and interpretation. In this model, experiments are usually definitive and easily repeatable; disagreement results from extra-scientific interests, rather than legitimate inter-

pretive differences between experts. By assuming this model, Close has Pons and Heischmann seduced by fame and glory and lured by patent rights into doing bad science. The flaws and uncertainties in their experiments are taken as evidence of incompetence. Close, however, fails to pursue the critics of cold fusion with the same investigative zeal. Their experiments are always assumed to be clear-cut. They are not, as Mallove shows. Mallove, on the other hand, seems to mistake lack of definiteness of experiments and room for legitimate argument as evidence that cold fusion must really be there. He seems all at sea because his watertight model of science has been punctured. In short, he is unfamiliar with scientific controversy. In

controversies there are always theorists who can explain the impossible, always anomalous results, and, of course, all is not always fair and square. But competent experts, which is what scientists are, learn how to judge such matters. Scientific controversies are messy enough without attendant imputations of bad faith, dishonesty, and bad science. Expect too much of science and you will always be disappointed. These books are good accounts of the content of the science, but, regretfully, only add to the misunderstanding of how science works. Trevor Pinch is an associate professor in the department of science and technology studies at Cornell University, where he studies the sociology of science and technologyD

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