Foreign Trade
Competition Returns-
U. So Trade Levels Off KARL L. ANDERSON, Deputy Director, Bureau of Foreign Commerce CARL P. BLACKWELL, Director of International Economic Analysis Division, Bureou of Foreign Commerce, Washington 25, D. C.
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The United Ststen exported to fumgn countries in 1963 goods and emvices valued at $21.3 billion, including 54.3 billion of military supplies and senriOes furnished under the military aid progrsma. Purehaws ofgoods and seMces from a h d were valued a t $16.6 billion. Since World War 11, chemical expo& r o ~ etwice and fell back twice. Expo& of chemicals and chemical producte leaped from )506,000,000in 1946 to $872,000,000 in 1947. Demand for chemicals from the United S t s k i in the two immediate postwar yeam was 80 large that export licensing for supply ressons had to be invoked on many chemicals. Exports sagged in 1948 below tsoO,000,000and continued to fall off in 1949 and 1950, declining in the latter year to $731,000,000. During the years 1 W 5 2 , exports of U. S. merchandiee of
HE RETURN of competition in international trade is one of the Signiscant FACTS A N developments in world economy during FIGURES the past 2 years. Chemical industry has FOR T H E shared in this revived “normal” comCHEMICAL trsde. petitive PROCESS A small decline and tendency t o level INDUSTRIES off marked the chemical import picture at the close of 1953. This contraeta wLu.. U.ns m-v lucmnse which took Dlace from the end of World War I1 ihrough 1951. ’ Chemicd exports, on the other hand, have had ups and downs since World War 11. Exports of chemical8 have declined from a record peak in 1951 to earlier post-World War I1 levels. I
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S. EXPORTS Selected chemicals in Relation to Production Sourcei Compiled by hbrnotionol Economk h a l y i r Dlvldon, b n a u of Fonlpn Commerw,
Commodilg
........................ . ...........1wO Ib. Sulfur blacL”. .................... sJnth&ieindigo*. ................ .SIwO All other dyes m d stains-. ........ .LOW Ib. pe&illin.. ......................... bllllonoxfordunits AoctyWoylic acid (+s?irIn) bulk.,. ....1wO Ib.
Chemical8 m d related products
Phenol..... 1wOlb. Colors, dyes. &ins, m d color lakes*. .lOW Ib. Color lakes m d toners’.. .1OW Ib.
Inssoticides m d fungicides for amd-
....................... .s1,wO.wo SI,OW,WO ............................. .................... ..................
hUdn.es.
DDT..
.Short tons copper d . t e . . .short toM Cdcinm carbide.. sodium urbomtss, calcined (soda a.h)a.. .1 ,wO,wO Ib. Sodium hydroxide (caustic so&) loo0 Short ton. s nthctic mbydroos ammonia.. 1.wO,OW lb. 1 OW.000 lb. chorins.. Carbon black 1:OW.OWlb. Wt nmish, lacquer. and tiller.. .SI ,wO.OOO IO00 long toM Phos&te rook”..
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Produclion QuorUilv 01 Volue I951 1952 1953
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U. S.
Deparlment of Conrmm
E~p~porti Quonlitv or Value I951
I952
1953
388.429 337,761 378,478 2,097 22.290 16.161 13.394 n.L. 22.521 12,180 200.101 184.269 2,367 3,178 n.a. 3,077 40,109 35.666 11.410 9,205 n.a. 3,026 1,053 762 214 58 4,385 . n 599 4,919 9,384 na. 15,816 8,502 130,304 122,833 318.622 342.326 378.337 83.972 75,531 102,815 13,481 13,312 13,649 2.169 1,576 1,253 251 39 106 944 7753284
50, 42 209 15 16 33 ..n 72,692 43,129 43,421 94,508 703,241 793,335 6,934 4.416
10,916 3,106 3,554 5,036 1,677 1,400 11,095
1135
U.I.
9.527 3.031 4,104 5.217 11.324
10.606 3.262 4.573 5,592 1.611 1,402
-.I.
310 274 12
29 433 34 1.727
212 208 31 36 293 29 1,429
As Pwnnlage oj Produrlion I951 I952 1953
5.6
11.3 7.7 26.5 12.2 12.1
26.4
16.1
6.6 4.0 6.6 E . 6.6 =.a. 11.4 n... 4.9 I.& 6.0 =.a. 22.1 27.2 11.8 9.2
32 20.1 20.0 n.. 11 37.6 47.6 ILL. 32.659 40.3 45.9 44.9 5,616 0.9 0.6 0.7 331 2.8 132 8 . 8 30 0 . 3 47 0.6 359 25.7 30 2.4 2,101 15.6
2.2 3.1 6 . 9 4.0 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.8 18.3 22.3 2.1 2.1 12.6 e..
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INDUSTRIAL A N D ENGINEERING CHEMISTRY
1136
Vol. 46, N a 6
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all kinds amounted to approximately W 9 billion, of which chemical exports accounted for, roundly, $5.5 billion, or 6.1%. This percentage compares with 4.4% for the period of 193&38, during which time the dollar level for chemicals was much lower ($129,000,000) than in the postwar period. The banner year for chemical exports was 1951,when about a billion dollars' worth of c % d t d i n d u ~ B ~ d u & w e r e sent to all psrts of the world. One stimulant to the incresse was,of course, the Korean War. After 1951,exports dropped to approximately 1947 levels. The decline from 1951 d e c k to a large d e e m an over-buying spree hy foreign countries as well as rising production abroad. Always when goods are tight everybody wants them. T&e sulfur, for example. Bemuse of the U.S. monopoly on low-cost, bighquslity sulfur, the world has been beating on our doom for supplies and will undoubtedly continue to do so. Another crkii could, of course, bring about a sharp change in the export demand as well as the availability for export. For the past 5 or 6 yeam one g r o u p t h e medicinals and pharmaceutica&hw topped all other groups in export volume. In 1951 exports of this group amounted to $2Sl,W0,OOO or approximately 28% of the total. This percentage has dipped hut slightly and appear8 for 1953 to amount to about 26%. Antihiotics, of couw, account for the prominenee of this group. Wonder drugs, slthoWgh originating elsewhere, have found their chief 'commercialisation in this country. The export market for mtibiotics, while stii of large proportions, appears headed for receaeion because of the trend toward eatabkhment of foreign production facilities. Chemical specialties are holding up fairly well. There is a
sustained demand for ow insecticides, fungicides, and organic surface-active agents, for example. Exports of these chemical specialties rose shadily from the end of World War I1 until 1951, after which there was a decline. In 1953 the value of this group of exports was $266,687,000, only $5,000,000 under 1952,and $18,100,000under the all-time high in 1951. S f a r exporta remsin high. Although slightly le= sulfur was exported in 1953 over 1952,the value was higher. Figures show this situation: Yen, 1950 1951 1952 1953
Sulfur Exports Low TON 1.18o.ow
1,307,000 1,338,wo 1,271,000
Value
w ,200,000
33,708,808 35,966,m 36,581,000
On the other hand, slightly more fertilizer and fertilizer materials were exported in 1953 than in 1951 and 1952,but the value has been slightly lese. Fertilizer and hrtilizer Materials Exports Y*,lr
Short Tom
VdlUe
1950
3,091,000 2,489,WO 2,066,000 2,623,000
S76.868.WO 50.662*000
1951 1952 I953
42,626,000
42,043,000
Imports of chemicals and related products have been running on the average about one fifth the dollar value of chemical exports, Chemical imports constitute only about 2% of all U. 8. imports. However, if raw materials u d by the
11n
INDUSTRIAL AND ENGINEERING CHEMISTRY
lune 1954
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S. EXPOBTS Chemicals by Principal Produds QuanMy in thousands of povndr unless olhwwire nc4.d.
Va1u.r
In thoumnds of dollon
Sourte: Compiled in Inbrnalionol Economic Analyrlr Divilon, Bureau of Fonim bmmerce, U. 5. Depaltmnt of Commerce 1951 1953 Vdue Qunntity Value QYantitu Value ... 891,498 882,310 ... 1 ,086,346 871,791 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ... 55,505 5,1248 77,747 12o.m 5,145 zS;i26 8,343 35;iss 9,358 ii;sis 26;727 5.241 B...... .... .......... 16,153 13,608 76.571 20,670 50.180 62,083 39.537 13.138 5 721 4,979 10,395 9,556 6,788 13,540 10 131 4,426 12,180 16,931 13,394 19:531 31.407 22,521 Mi270 80,728 216,591 221.169 ... 281.380 ... 176,735 uc~uticalprepuati n.a. 30,537 n.*. 25,233 35,316 6.208 bii59 27,669 I. ............ ua. 17,057 17,326 11.1. 18 975 ... 13 358 5,947 1,303 7,212 1,434 15:385 2.390 i;i30 ii:593 78,665 101.338 ... 123,431 ... 34,502 ............................................. 266,667 261,332 284,888 153,255 Cbsmiul epccidti 249ii69 60.626 2sj;696 49,063 zii;ssg i4i;ia 23.330 Insecticidssmd fungicide1 . . . . . . . . . . . . 83,016 74,161 64,981 Plastic and n d n materids 7,696 16,632 24;bll 13,153 3i;T69 G;612 3,968 . . . . . . . . . . 36;iia organic ~ d . c e - ~ c t i . esgenl 99,204 38,952 105,429 41,403 31.391 6,444 9,000 2,223 Antibock comoounds lnon~strole 118.989 129,726 168,178 160.115 ............... Industrid cheml 4,452 4,631 3i iw 6,375 3j;izo ~i614 ioi;igo 11.8% Addsmdmhsdride8 s.... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11,398 18,108 14,666 17.968 Alcohols..... :. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9;im 846 2,372 4,052 23;385 ji;305 3i;k 3,645 4 I 548 4,504 19,767 5 693 11,554 27,127 16,049 3,294 29,248 9,832 9,432 25,171 9:845 26,405 6,156 2.3% 8,972 6I 724 278,634 13,322 206,585 426,889 171,473 4,652 31,522 834,880 25,105 57,614 864.936 1 I , 172,WO 871,663 57,573 Sodiumcompounds,t d a l . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4,283 310.438 6,006 7,988 221,132 339.681 214.316 8,704 Carbonate. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 386 339 16,118 925 14,089 29,852 60,635 1,737 Bicarbtinate . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 263,660 8,237 16,042 415,028 31,038 547,110 276,570 26,665 Hydroxide. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . n... 7.902 n... 4 348 ... 5,114 Gases. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 72% 84,393 103.174 85.508 Pigments,paints, and varnishes, total.. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 56;651 1,527 1,273 4i;i15 1,490 iS;938 6i;482 2,2w Mincnl earth DiPmonts. .......................... _em 5,941 2,720 3,239 15.230 17,789 38,163 4,770 Zincoxide . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 584 7,853 1,632 3,616 19.970 40,947 1,784 Lithopone, . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27,305 358,620 32,055 39.248 292,908 26.120 433,493 319,076 26 849 C.rbonb rle. ............................. 11,716 79,559 10,692 71,272 13,274 78 484 42,343 5:184 Titininm dioxide and pigments. .................... 5,047 1,337 5,659 2.274 5,051 1:395 3,382 7,891 IiitrooeUuloieand other cellulosic lacquers (1000gal.) 5,353 16,030 19.102 5,566 16.5% 6.651 7.549 20,988 Ready-mixsd paint%stains. and EtumelE (1000 gal.). 42.043 2,623 42.626 2,066 50,662 2,489 Fertilizersand mterids, t ow (1000lonctom). ........ 1.04839 35,609 1,922 39 7,223 122 6,797 134 5,029 Ammoninm sulfate (1000ahorttom).. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 84 5,518 5,807 88 119 7,346 182 9,465 Othcrnitmgenooi (1000short tons). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,101 18,368 1,426 12,404 14,735 1,727 Phosphate rock (1000longtons).. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 281 6,432 6,488 290 299 Sttpcrphosphates(1000short tons). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3,287 42 3.978 57 81 19 1,089 Fertilizermlxbmes (1000short tons). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19.322 ... 18.547 19,862 ... . . 41,314 26,828 25,309 48,031 47,757 30,648 1G;672 14,470 24i;989 16,115 sii;856 '355;&1 30,886 4,082 2,425 2,677 5 816 6,549 2,941 2,745 2,871 3,741 2,182 3:265 4 345 6,108 4 349 8,113 89,289 3.053 2,988 17,234 16:977 7,721 2:505 Linieedoil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . I 705 4 12.669 10.625 3,314 11.530 3,696 13,903 3 OW Essential oils and pedumes. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36,581 1,271 35,%6 1,338 33,708 1,307 1:349 27.707 Sulf~,mdsmndratlned(10001ongtons).. . . . . . . . . . . . . 906 7,873 1.282 933 10.212 8.091 20,954 2.230 DyeingandtanninpextNc tu.. ........................ Figures exdude "emlodves, fireworla, and ammunition." which were inoluded in prior h u e s of this table. n.8.-Not available.
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10'7
Quontity
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chemical industry, such as gums and resins, drugs, herbs, and essential oils were included, the figures would double. Chemical imports rose steadily in the posbWorld War I1 years, reaching $521,wO,wO in 1951. They dropped to $456,000,000 in 1952, and to $451,000,000 in 1953. The largest single group of chemical imports has been fertiliers and fertilizer materials. U. S. chemical imports are chiefly chemical raw materials and some intermediates, rather than finished chemicals. The dependence of this country on various imports of this type should not be overlooked. We were, for example, fortunate in being able to get benzene from abroad when it was needed for our military programs. As of the present time, new petroleum source facilities greatly reduce dependency on foreign sources of benzene. official administration policy is that imports into this country must increase with a rising economy. U.S. imports are materials which for the most part we do not produce here and are therefore obliged to import. From the economic standpoint an increase in imports is the hope of every econcmist who is aware of the fundamental dependence of export trade on imports.
Chemical Export Conlrolr
A number of chemical products have been export control "problem commodities" for several years. Their control has been somewhat more di5cult chielly because of their supplydemand fluctuations. Government export controls were originally instituted in 1940 as a means of strengthening the national defense by restricting exports of bmic materials needed for our defense program. They were controls aimed a t conserving supply. In 1948 the controls were expanded into an instrument of national security as had been done during World War 11. Security export controls were placed in effect during World War I1 t o keep supplies from enemy hands either through direct or indirect shipment thrpugh friendly nations. After the war, seourity controls were extended to the Soviet Union and the Soviet bloc. The Communist invsaion of Korea and the sharply expanded Korean defense production program created serious shortages of essential materials, necemitatii again the imposition of export restrictions to prevent an excessive drain on our supplies.
1138
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INDUSTRIAL AND ENGINEERING CHEMISTRY
Val. 46, No. 6
S. IMPORTS chemicals by Principal Products Gwntiti.r in fhoumndr of pounds except as olh.wlu noted. Valuer In thousands of dollars Soumet Compiled In Inhrnalond Economic h o l y d s Diriria. bunou of Fonlan Commme, U. 5. Delronmenl of Cornmema
1947
Quantitu
Volva
. . . $284,621 .
I951 Quantitu Volva
1952
Quantitu
...
Value
$456,048 11.514 ... ... 46,478 8,492 35.236 34.i98 5.776 49;499 67; i33 si;025 11.162 1,055 161 68.540 43,743 20,594 15,504 2,139 133 73,554 92,103 83,336 5,816 2.224 592 8,722 3,777 25,613 2.562 839 2,188 3,369 2,387 5,776 2.606 .. 7.459 ... ... ... 6.124 368 2,629 733 542 277 3,125 34.501 63.854 10,598 583 4ii;Mo zi;& 4;i97 1,458 27,880 1,145 29,037 8,967 9,434 548 21,501 14.840 125,044 28,679 8,874 14,282 816 813 437 387 610 621 1,557 17,643 3,646 18,836 42.812 4.218 2,261 2.757 852 791 1,363 958 588 6,458 29,344 13.592 2,313 22,237 1.356 58 56,781 730 253 19 83,432 3.329 137.832 133,649 128.825 6,236 1,553 3,569 i,iw i;.i10 43,453 i;i76 2;930 114,561 114 4,149 216 524 238 11.103 343 99 5,024 468 26,997 763 154 5.242 68 96 82 5.462 557 15,154 675 732 569 27.6331 105 135 5.203 133 166 8,723 48 1,889 351 560 10,400 240 35 1,321 281 493 7,538 I74 46 1,450 114 5*470 181 145 4,733 4,604 20’,’&7 43363 6,240 56;& 74;246 8,535 43.356 29,298 63;097 59;730 54;861 20.457 54609 13,702 19,062 38.271 25,452 6,883 33,877 8,468 21,636 18,119 10,546 9,407 12,228 4,028 13,761 11,839 5,926 4,055 4,607 3.047 23,030 32,995 6,416 34,883 36,774 7,120 29,155 35,393 i,’&2.399 6,886 6;iw iii40 2,442 55,922 40#947 2,530 39,718 29,616 1,670 386 3,541 382 762 898 6.889 121,564 30,154 35.358 23,485 29,869 10,791 95,113 334,295 185.235 15,762 3m.465 44.094 18,082 23,737 24,921 22,285 31,017 22.831 13,653 11,836 16,016 13,535 15,547 13,261 12.964 ... 18,070 20,491 47,846 215,548 273j;iss 15,387 26i;bm 27,852 ra) exclude “ e m l o d v ~ ~ Gremrks, , and ammunition,” which were inoluded in prior ismNcd of thia tabla. 1 Comprises tragacanth. Ladays. telka, and arabic.
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rig%
At the same time, a total embargo on shipments to North Korea and Communist China was imposed, together with tightened restrictions on export to Hong Kong and certain other Far Eastern deathations which might serve as possible transhipment pointa to the Korean invaders. Late in 1952 as domestic and world supply shortages disappeared, export control emphasis once again shifted from supply to security problems. In April of this year export controls over many chemicals were relaxed. A number of chemical and industrial specidties and pharmaceutical preparations can now be exported t o friendly countries without individual licenses. The major cloud on the horizon, according to a segment of the chemical industry, is the Administration’s dart to reduce t a r 8 8 further as a part of an over-all foreign policy. Early in April President Eisenhower presented to Congrass a detailed foreign economic policy. It embodied almost all of the proposals of the Randall Commission. Tar8 reduction is the political “hot potato” included in the proposals. The President wants to extend the Trade Agreements Act for 3 years. Additional tariff-cutting authority is proposed.
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The President could, under the authority asked for, cut t d s 5% per year on any commodity. The “escape clanse,” which permits relief for U. S. indus tries hurt by imports, is retained in the President’s proposal, but he wants to keep power to reject T a r 8 Commission recommendations for duty increases. Because of Randall’s efforts to “sell” the program, the Cabinet is mlidly behind the President’s proposals. But in Congress there is a bloc of Republicans, including top men on key committees, which is against most of the trade liberalization proposals. Government officialsbelieve that in the present “normal” competitive situation, American industrial ingenuity and salesmanship will not prove wanting. They expect American industry to maintain its share of export markets notwithstanding use by some foreign competitors of long-term credit. They point to these facts to back up their optimistic oub look: In 1951 our share of Free World exports was 19.5%. in 1952 it was 20.4%, and last year we exported 21.2% of the exports of the Free World. Without military exports, however, the figures show a decline. On that basis, our share was 18.4% in 1951, 18.3% in 1952, and 17.2% in 1953. These figures are still above the 1937 level of 14.1%.
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