NEWS FOCUS
Congressional Outlook 89 Lois R. Ember, David J. Hanson, and Janice R. Long, C&EN Washington
The new year brings with it a new President, George Bush, and a new Congress, the 101st. Congress convened on Jan. 3, certified the electoral college ballot count on Jan. 4, and then recessed until Jan. 19, the day before Bush is scheduled to be sworn into office. It is then that Congress will really get down to work and its solid Democratic majority will be looking to Bush for some specific programs to back up his stated desire for a "kinder and gentler" nation, his goal to be the "education President," and his avowal that he is an "environmentalist." It will also be watching to see how he intends to pay for these programs. Still, many obervers think that the new year will also see a new spirit of cooperation between Congress and the Administration. Budget. The first major problem the new Congress and the new President will have to deal with is an old one—the budget deficit. Bush will inherit a fiscal 1989 deficit of about $150 billion and a national debt of $2.6 trillion, on which the interest payments alone are more than enough to account for the total deficit. By contrast, when President Reagan took office he inherited an annual deficit of $79 billion and a $1 trillion debt. President Reagan will submit his last budget proposal, for fiscal 1990, to Congress today. Bush will send his own budget proposals to Congress, most likely in the form of revisions to Reagan's budget, soon after the inauguration. During his campaign Bush advocated a flexible freeze on federal spending, but whether that will be enough to reduce the $150 billion deficit to $90 billion by 1990 as mandated by the 10
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Balanced Budget & Emergency Deficit Control Act, commonly known as the Gramm-Rudman-Hollings Act, remains to be seen. If it isn't, then either real cuts, not just a freeze, will have to be made in federal spending or new revenues will have to be raised. One idea widely discussed is raising the federal gasoline tax. Every one cent-pergallon increase in that tax raises an additional $1 billion for the Treasury. Another idea that is still being bandied about is taxing imported oil, which not only would raise revenues but also encourage domestic oil production. However, it wouldn't be good for the chemical industry, which is one of the few industries that has a positive trade balance. Given Bush's campaign mantra—"Read my lips: No new taxes"—the Democratically controlled Congress is not going to take the lead on any revenue increases. So no tax increases are expected this year unless Bush does an about-face, and that's unlikely. Business. Topping the business agenda is what, if anything, Congress can, or should, do about the wave of "merger mania" on Wall Street, which has a lot of big companies, including chemical companies, looking fearfully over their shoulders. Senate Finance Committee chairman Lloyd Bentsen (D.-Tex.) plans an extensive investigation of the financing involved in leveraged buyouts (LBOs). House Ways & Means Committee chairman Dan Rostenkowski (D.-Ill.) is planning to hold a series of hearings on the issue early this year, as is the Energy & Commerce Subcommittee on Telecommunications & Finance, chaired by Rep. Edward J. Markey (D.-Mass.). One suggestion for putting the brakes on LBOs is to cut the interest deduction allowed on loans used to
finance the takeovers, but none of the lawmakers involved is rushing to judgment on that issue. So the focus in 1989 is likely to be on investigation rather than legislation. The 101st Congress also will be reviving a number of issues—an increase in the minimum wage, mandatory health care for all workers, and job-protected leaves for parents—that almost made it through the 100th Congress, but ultimately died during the last days of the session because of Republican-led filibusters in the Senate. Even if the legislation had passed, it faced an almost certain Presidential veto. Bush, however, during his campaign indicated that he might support a slightly higher minimum wage if it were tied to a subminimum wage for newly hired workers in training. He also said that women shouldn't have to worry about getting their jobs back after giving birth. That doesn't necessarily mean that he would support the imposition of mandatory programs on the nation's employers. But it does indicate that he may be willing to work with Congress to devise ways to supply benefits that both Democrats and Republicans feel are needed. Among other old issues that may well be getting a new look in the 101st Congress are reform of the nation's product liability laws and the need for further changes in U.S. antitrust and patent laws to ensure the competitiveness of U.S. industry. Education. Bush has proclaimed that he wants to be "the education President." How he will go about that cannot be guessed. Ronald Reagan tried to spur the
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News Focus nation on with the study "A Nation At Risk," while at the same time making an effort to do away with the Department of Education. But Congress is where the programs to improve the nation's educational systems will be hammered out, and there isn't much on the anvil at the beginning of the year. Improvements in science and mathematics education will continue at the National Science Foundation. Last year's NSF reauthorization legislation set aside larger sums for education than had been available in previous years. Congress believes that NSF is a better place to fund science education at all levels than the Department of Education, which will continue to be squeezed for funds as the budget gets tighter. Any new programs might include ones aimed at finding new and improved ways to attract and retain science and math teachers, a need emphasized by Bush in his campaign. Given Bush's promise not to impose any new taxes, there is some skepticism in Congress' education subcommittees about the will behind the Administration's rhetoric, but they are willing to give a new President the benefit of the doubt. And Congress is working on some education ideas of its own. Sen. John Glenn (D.-Ohio), chairman of the Governmental Affairs Committee, and Rep. Doug Walgren (D.-Pa.), chairman of the Subcommittee on
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Science, Research & Technology, are working on bills designed to help close the scientific and technological gap that is developing between the U.S. and other nations, particularly Japan. The legislation would direct NSF to award, based on merit, four-year college scholarships of up to $5000 to one female and one male high school senior from each Congressional district to study science, math, or engineering at the college of their choice. The program would cost about $5.5 million to start with, growing to about $18 million when it became fully operational. Energy. Almost all of the 101st Congress' action on energy is expected to be related to environmental problems. Issues of global warming and acid rain dominate most discussions of energy policy and legislation. Some observers believe this is because air pollution policies are not synchronized with energy policies. The past 20 years of environmental controls are clashing with national energy goals. One effect may be to force the various environmental and energy committees to work more closely together in the future. Legislation attempting to reduce the amount of carbon dioxide produced in the U.S. in order to slow the global warming trend was introduced by several Congressmen last session and is sure to be put forward again in 1989. Some of the likely provisions include mandatory reductions in the use of fossil fuels, mostly gasoline and coal, and incentives for the use of nonfossil fuels, such as photovoltaic and hydrogen fuel cells. There is also consideration of research for modular and more cost-effective nuclear reactors. Other provisions could include tougher automobile fuel efficiency standards and elimination of the use of chlorofluorocarbons. A main proponent of these measure is Sen. Timothy E. Wirth (D.-Colo.), who almost certainly will sponsor new legislation. There will be significant impact on energy industries from all of this activity. Some analysts fear that clean coal technology programs could be scrapped, as Congress frowns on coal use; others say it will just try to fund the most efficient projects. There will also be impacts on domestic oil and gas exploration and production. If gasoline use is discouraged, petroleum production could decline further. Natural gas is plentiful at the moment, and some are pushing for it to replace coal and petroleum for many uses. Nuclear power, which produces no gases involved in global warming or acid rain, will be debated hotly. Nuclear fusion research, which has seen its funding diminish over the years, is also looking for a revival. Energy issues are also snagged on the ozone pollution problems affecting U.S. cities. To get the cities into compliance with the Clean Air Act, some kind of regulation of automobiles will be required, and that could have a profound impact on energy use. Cars might eventually be required to use methane or hydrogen fuels, which also will have an impact on the warming issue. Still other energy issues will be addressed by Congress in this session. One of these is decontrol of natural gas prices. This has become a lot less controversial over the past few years and Congress is lean-
ing that way more than ever. However, the issue of allowing producers to bypass pipeline companies and directly supply industrial customers is expected to cause some debate. The concerns over disruption of foreign oil supplies worry many in Congress and there may be early hearings on the reauthorization of the Energy Mobilization Act, which is due for reauthorization in 1990. Nuclear power legislation will move in the areas of uranium enrichment policies, plant licensing reforms, and plant standardization. Environment. The 101st Congress is not likely to get off to the fast start of its predecessor Congress, which passed amendments to the Clean Water Act in record-breaking time. But two laws will receive immediate attention: the Clean Air Act and the Resource Conservation & Recovery Act (RCRA). Both laws have expired and need to be revised. There is no dispute among members of Congress about the need to overhaul the Clean Air Act. But there is much debate about how to do this. Disagreements kept a compromise bill from passing in the last Congress. But well-placed Congressional sources expect the law, last revised in 1982, to be reauthorized by this Congress. According to Senate majority leader George J. Mitchell (D.-Me.), one of the main reasons for this optimism is that Bush campaigned as an environmentalist and especially mentioned renewal of the Clean Air Act as one of his goals. Topping the list of issues that need to be addressed are the failure of more than 100 cities to meet national ambient air quality standards, control of acid rain, and abatement of toxic chemical emissions. The issue of global warming, which received attention in the 100th Congress, will crop up again in this Congress. Six bills on the greenhouse effect were introduced in both the House and Senate. Only one in each house was reported out of committee, and neither of these reached the chamber floor. Many of these same bills are likely to be reintroduced in this Congress. And there is some thinking that the appropriate Congressional committees may subsume the global warming issue under a clean air package. All of this is speculative at this point, and richly dependent on the makeup of the House and Senate environmental committees. Rep. Henry A. Waxman (D.-Calif.) will remain as chairman of Energy & Commerce's Subcommittee on Health & the Environment. He will have to work out a compromise with full committee chairman John D. Dingell (D.-Mich.) to get a clean air bill reported out of committee. Waxman was unsuccessful in this effort last year, though he may have better luck this time around. A Dingell aide says the Michigan Congressman "is supportive of working out a resolution on the Clean Air Act." At press time the chairman of the Senate Environment & Public Works Subcommittee on Environmental Pollution had not been named. Mitchell, who chaired the subcommittee last year, has relinquished it to devote his full efforts to the leadership position. Sen. Max S. Baucus (D.-Mont.) is a leading contender for Mitchell's vacated post. Baucus, who in the last Congress chaired the Subcommittee on Hazardous
Wastes & Toxic "Nsv^^IBi|f/ Substances and who introduced a b i l l ^ ^ r / for reauthorizameld the two subtion of RCRA, wants to ^ * committees so that he can continue to oversee renewal of RCRA as well as the Clean Air Act. Mitchell, who assumed a key role in trying to get the Clean Air Act renewed last year, is intent on using his leadership position this year to shepherd it through. He has asked all clean-air proponents to meet this month or early next month to decide on the best strategy to get a compromise bill passed. A Mitchell aide says that "no decisions have yet been made on how to amend the law." Both houses of Congress may decide to wait until the new Bush Administration offers its proposals before they make their strategies known. If so, no action on the Clean Air Act can be expected before this summer. Congress has acknowledged "a solid waste disposal crisis in the U.S.," says one House committee staffer, and is expected to move seriously on amending RCRA. Baucus will take a leading role in the Senate, and Dingell is expected to do the same in the House. Relevant bills offered in both chambers last year are expected to be reintroduced this legislative session. Expect to see bills on the management, disposal, recycling, and minimization of solid waste, with a strong focus on municipal incinerator ash. There will be legislation offered to amend RCRA to ensure greater compliance of federal facilities with the law. And "on the front burner," says a House committee staffer, will be an effort to deal with the Energy Department's radioactive wastes. Whether this will be woven into RCRA amendments or dealt with as a freestanding bill is up in the air now. There will also be some attempt to control the export and import of hazardous wastes. Superfund is not up for reauthorization until 1991. January 9, 1989 C&EN
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However, Congressional dissatisfaction with EPA's handling of settlements and cleanups is likely to bring on a slew of oversight hearings. Last year both the House and Senate voted out groundwater protection and research bills. No compromise legislation was worked out. These bills will be reintroduced early this year. But the problems that surfaced last year are expected to rise again this year. At issue are the roles of federal agencies in directing research and of federal and state government in protecting groundwater supplies. These conflicts may limit the extent of any final bill to one of research only. Health. The Occupational Safety & Health Administration will be getting more attention in the next Congress as some members are beginning to talk about major reforms. The basic problem, as they see it, is that it takes far too long for the agency to develop new standards. Sometimes it seems that it would be 14
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faster for Congress to pass new laws than for OSHA to promulgate a new regulation. One area where that almost happened in the last Congress was on the issue of proper sanitation for farm workers. A bill was introduced to ensure that these field workers had clean water and adequate sanitary facilities, but OSHA responded by establishing its own rule. Congress probably will hold hearings next year on how that regulation has been enforced, particularly on how pesticides have been handled. There is concern in Congress that OSHA has been a lot more effective in cleaning up industrial workplaces than in making farms safe places to work. Legislation that would require companies to notify present and past workers of exposure to chemicals that are thought to pose a high risk to health is certain to be reintroduced, probably near the middle of the first session. The bill would require setting up a risk assessment board to review chemicals to see how much of a risk they represent and employer-paid testing programs for workers who are notified they have been exposed to a particular chemical or chemicals. The House passed a strong version of this so-called high-risk notification law early last year, and the Senate Labor Committee reported it to the floor. But there, opposition to the bill eventually caused it to be pulled before a vote was taken. Other health topics that are near the top of the list for consideration include the issue of repetitive-motion injuries. There were several well-reported instances last year in which OSHA levied big fines against companies that allowed workers to suffer these problems, notably in the meatpacking industry. But the problem is more widespread than that—even surgeons and drummers have reported the problem—and hearings are likely to be held to discover the extent of the problem and what might be done about it. Video display terminals are another topic for hearings as the controversy over their safety continues. New research findings on what hazards, if any, such terminals pose are expected to be presented at the hearings. Acquired immune deficiency syndrome (AIDS) continues to be a Congressional concern, and several issues will be the subject of hearings in 1989. Among these are the problems of discrimination against persons having AIDS or AIDS antibodies and whether to require confidentiality of AIDS testing results. Congress is also expected to consider providing funds for state and local AIDS testing programs. EPA's decision last year to change its policy on how much pesticide residue can remain on food after it is processed has caused concern in Congress that the agency may be unilaterally throwing out the revered Delaney amendment, which prohibits the introduction of any cancer-causing chemicals into food. EPA's proposal to allow some pesticide residues to stay, even if that pesticide has been shown to cause cancer in animals, flies in the face of that provision. Hearings on whether EPA should be allowed to do this likely will be held early in the session along with discussion on whether the law needs to be changed. D
