Degradation of Fluorotelomer-Based Polymers ... - ACS Publications

Mar 17, 2017 - chain to short-chain products, in-use stocks of C8 FTPs will peak and ... aged FTPs undergo degradation on the time scale of decades or...
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The degradation of fluorotelomer-based polymers contributes to the global occurrence of fluorotelomer alcohol and perfluoroalkyl carboxylates: A combined dynamic substance flow and environmental fate modelling analysis Li Li, Jianguo Liu, Jianxin Hu, and Frank Wania Environ. Sci. Technol., Just Accepted Manuscript • DOI: 10.1021/acs.est.6b04021 • Publication Date (Web): 17 Mar 2017 Downloaded from http://pubs.acs.org on March 18, 2017

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The degradation of fluorotelomer-based polymers contributes to the global occurrence of fluorotelomer

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alcohol and perfluoroalkyl carboxylates: A combined dynamic substance flow and environmental fate

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modelling analysis

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Li Li,1,2,* Jianguo Liu,1,* Jianxin Hu,1 Frank Wania2

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1. College of Environmental Sciences and Engineering, Peking University, 5 Yiheyuan Road, Beijing,

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100871, P.R. China

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2. Department of Physical and Environmental Sciences, University of Toronto Scarborough, 1095

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Military Trail, Toronto, Ontario M1C 1A4, Canada

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Correspondence to:

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* L. Li: College of Environmental Sciences and Engineering, Peking University, 5 Yiheyuan Road,

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Beijing, 100871, P.R. China; E-mail: [email protected], and, [email protected]; Phone: 86

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10 62753746;

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** J. Liu: College of Environmental Sciences and Engineering, Peking University, 5 Yiheyuan Road,

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Beijing, 100871, P.R. China; E-mail: [email protected]; Phone: 86 10 62759075.

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TOC Art

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Abstract

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Using coupled dynamic substance flow and environmental fate models, CiP-CAFE and BETR-Global,

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we investigated whether degradation of side-chain fluorotelomer-based polymers (FTPs), mostly in

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waste stocks (i.e., landfills and dumps), serves as a long-term source of fluorotelomer alcohols (FTOHs)

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and perfluoroalkyl carboxylates (PFCAs) to the global environment. The modelling results indicate that,

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in the wake of the worldwide transition from long-chain to short-chain products, in-use stocks of C8

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FTPs will peak and decline afterwards while the in-use stocks of C6 FTPs and waste stocks of both

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FTPs will generally grow. FTP degradation in waste stocks is making an increasing contribution to

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FTOH generation, the bulk of which readily migrates from waste stocks and degrades into PFCAs in the

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environment; the remaining part of the generated FTOHs degrade in waste stocks, which makes those

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stocks reservoirs that slowly release PFCAs into the environment over the long run because of the low

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leaching rate and extreme persistence of PFCAs. Short-chain FTPs have higher relative release rates of

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PFCAs from waste stocks than long-chain ones. Estimates of in-use and waste stocks of FTPs were

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more sensitive to the selected lifespan of finished products while those of emissions of FTOHs and

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PFCAs were more sensitive to the degradation half-life of FTPs in waste stocks. Our preliminary

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calculations highlight the need for environmentally sound management of obsolete FTP-containing

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products into the foreseeable future.

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Introduction

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Constituting almost 80% of the market of fluorotelomer-based substances worldwide,1 side-chain

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fluorotelomer-based polymers (FTPs) have been applied as durable water repellents (DWRs) on a wide

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range of finished textiles, fabrics, carpets and garments,2,

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packaging industries, as well as other miscellaneous applications.3 The FTPs provide continuous water,

43

oil and stain resistances for commercial finished products throughout the product lifespans, during

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which FTPs might migrate into the environment because of abrasion and weathering. Afterwards, a

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considerable amount of FTPs enters the waste stream and accumulate in waste stocks such as landfills

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and dumps where aged FTPs undergo degradation on the time scale of decades or longer to generate

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various per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFASs).4 Recent experimental studies have demonstrated

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that this process comprises a series of sequential stepwise transformations, which first form

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non-polymeric fluorotelomer-based substances like fluorotelomer alcohols (FTOHs), followed by a

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variety of immediate degradation products such as saturated and unsaturated fluorotelomer carboxylates,

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and arrive at perfluoroalkyl carboxylates (PFCAs) as ultimate degradation products.5-7 During the

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degradation, both the intermediate and terminal degradation products may demonstrate adverse

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environmental effects.8-10

3

as oil/grease repellents in paper and

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Despite the consensus that FTP degradation contributes to the occurrence of FTOHs and PFCAs

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worldwide, the magnitude and temporal evolution of the problem have not yet been well elucidated and

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are thus still being contested.11 Several earlier modelling studies11-14 have attempted to evaluate the

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future worldwide releases of FTOHs and/or PFCAs from FTP degradation; however, these studies

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possessed different scopes and relied on distinct assumptions and methodologies. First, there is a lack of

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consistent, holistic consideration of mass flows of FTPs in both (i) in-use stocks during product service

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life and (ii) waste stocks (i.e., landfills and dumps) during the waste disposal phase. For instance, Wang

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et al.11 assumed an immediate end of FTOH releases once in-use stocks of FTPs are depleted, because

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they postulated that all obsolete FTP-containing finished products will be “properly treated (i.e., safely

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landfilled or incinerated) and no longer available for degradation”.11 This assumption contrasts with the

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stated expectation that FTP degradation in landfills “potentially constitutes a large long-term

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environmental load”4 for these compounds. In fact, the potential for degradation of FTPs in waste stocks

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has been confirmed experimentally,4, 15 and considerable releases of FTOHs and PFCAs via landfill

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leachates and gases have been observed in a range of field studies.16, 17 Coping with this situation

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necessitates a better “understanding of the mass flow of side-chain fluorinated polymers during their

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whole life-cycle, including in landfills”,11 as stated by Wang et al. Second, there are substantial

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variability and uncertainty associated with important input parameters. For example, (i) the lifespan of

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finished products [hereafter “product lifespan (LS)”], and (ii) the degradation half-life of FTPs in the

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environment or waste stocks [hereafter “degradation half-life (HL)”], have been identified as two key

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parameters determining the contribution of FTP degradation.11 However, the LS adopted in earlier

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studies ranges from 10 yrs18 to 50 yrs13, while the HL derived from different degradation experiments

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spans 2 orders of magnitude from 10 – 17 yrs6 to 1200 – 1700 yrs5. How different LS and HL values

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influence global annual FTOH releases from FTP degradation has been studied previously using

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empirical emission factors.11 Limited consideration was given to how and why those variables affect

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processes throughout the product lifecycle (e.g. in-use and waste stocks) and/or in the environment (e.g.,

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FTP degradation in waste stocks vs. after being released into the environment). In this situation,

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process-oriented models can contribute to a better mechanistic understanding of the complicated

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relationship between key parameters and the estimated release of generated FTOHs and PFCAs. Such an

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approach is also helpful for identifying the most influential parameters requiring accurate quantification

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in future studies.

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In this contribution, we combine a dynamic substance flow analysis model, CiP-CAFE, and an

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environmental fate model, BETR-Global, to mechanistically simulate the temporal evolution of in-use

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and waste stocks of FTPs, and the environmental releases of FTOHs and PFCAs from the degradation of

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FTPs. The influence of variations in LSs and HLs on model predictions is explored with four scenarios.

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We seek to preliminarily characterize the current and future contributions of FTP degradation, in

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particular during the waste disposal phase, to the releases of FTOHs and PFCAs worldwide. Findings in

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this study may provide a long-term overview of the stocks and mass flows of FTPs throughout the

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lifecycle, as well as complement the current understanding of sources of FTOHs and PFCAs.

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Methods

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Applications, substances and terminology

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Although fluorotelomer-based substances have found use as ingredients (see terminology in Text S1

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in the Supporting Information) in a multitude of consumer products, for simplification three major

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applications (APs) can be roughly categorized based on lifespan characteristics:18, 19 FTPs serve as

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DWRs

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fluorotelomer-based derivatives serve as surfactants for treating consumer products (representing all

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uses with continuous releases throughout lifespan) (AP2) and additives in aqueous film forming foams

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(AFFFs, representing all uses with both accidental releases at accidents and intensive discharge at the

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end of shelf life) (AP3). Here we did not consider FTP use in paper and packaging industries due to

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absence of market statistics. Since technical PFASs are usually present and consumed in above

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applications as mixtures of homologues with different chain-lengths or derivatives with various

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functional groups, we defined “equivalents” to collectively describe a series of similar PFASs with the

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same featured moiety but without considering their differences in molecular weights, physicochemical

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properties and degradation kinetics. In this study, the following three categories of PFAS-equivalents

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were considered (Figure 1):

on

finished

textiles,

fabrics,

carpets

and

garments

(AP1),

while

non-polymeric

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(I) side-chain FTP-equivalents (respective 4:2, 6:2, 8:2, 10:2 and 12:2 homologues were considered

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in this study), which refer to a collection of side-chain fluorotelomer-based acrylate, methacrylate,

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urethane and other polymers. FTP-equivalents are used as ingredients in DWRs in AP1 (denoted as

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FTPs) and have the potential to degrade into FTOHs and further PFCAs;

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(II) FTOH-equivalents (respective 4:2, 6:2, 8:2, 10:2 and 12:2 homologues), which refer to a

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collection of (i) FTOHs, and (ii) fluorotelomer-derived non-polymers (e.g., fluorotelomer acrylates,

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FTA), the degradation of which generates FTOHs as intermediates.20 FTOH-equivalents can be released

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into the environment as residuals in consumer products in the three APs (denoted as resFTOHs, Figure

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1), and as degradation products from the degradation of FTPs (denoted as degFTOHs, Figure 1) in both

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waste stocks and the environment;

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(III) PFCA-equivalents (respective C4 – C12 homologues), which refer to both perfluoroalkyl

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carboxylic acids and corresponding carboxylates. In this study, we consider releases of

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PFCA-equivalents into the environment as impurities in consumer products in the three APs (denoted as

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impPFCAs, Figure 1), and as degradation products from both resFTOHs (denoted as deg-resPFCAs,

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Figure 1) and degFTOHs (denoted as deg-degPFCAs, Figure 1) in waste stocks and the environment.

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The main objectives of this study are: (i) to simulate the temporal evolution of in-use and waste

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stocks of FTPs in AP1, and (ii) to investigate the contribution of FTP degradation to formation/release of

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degFTOHs and deg-degPFCAs (Figure 1). In addition, we also simulated the direct releases of resFTOH

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residuals and impPFCA impurities, as well as the formation of deg-resPFCAs, in all three APs for

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comparison. We recognized that a small amount of FTOHs can also be generated from degradation of

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non-polymeric FT-based substances, e.g., polyfluoroalkyl phosphate esters (PAPs) in AP2 (Figure 1);21,

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22

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market information renders estimating their contribution highly uncertain; and (ii) the release is much

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lower than degFTOHs and resFTOHs according to our preliminary calculation (Text S2 in SI). There are

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a number of other PFCA sources (Figure 1),18 such as the intentional uses of PFCAs as processing aid in

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fluoropolymer production, and the transformation of non-polymeric fluorotelomer-based derivatives

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(e.g., fluorotelomer sulfonamido betaines and fluorotelomer thioamido sulfonates as ingredients in

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AFFFs,23 which normally do not transform to FTOHs24). Estimating PFCA releases from these sources

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is beyond the scope of this work. Meanwhile, the lack of detailed information prevents consideration of

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the presence and releases of other minor residuals, e.g., perfluoroalkyl iodides and fluorotelomer

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iodides.25

we did not considered their contribution to the total FTOH release because (i) inadequate available

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Figure 1 Transformation of FTPs, FTOHs and PFCAs in the environment and waste stocks [R' = H or

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methyl group; R = H or (meth)acrylic group]. Arrows in solid line denote the substance flows quantified

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in this work: estimating stocks of FTPs, and annual releases of degFTOHs and deg-degPFCAs, are the

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main objectives (denoted as blue and red shadings); annual releases of resFTOHs, deg-resPFCA and

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impPFCAs are also calculated for comparison. Arrows in dashed line represent substance flows not

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quantified. The box “other PFCA sources” includes all PFCAs sources in Wang et al.18 other than the

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three considered here.

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Overview of modelling strategy

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Figure 2 summarizes the conceptual modelling strategy adopted in this study. In a first step, the

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mechanistic anthropospheric fate model, CiP-CAFE, is used to calculate time-variant in-use and waste

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stocks of FTPs worldwide for the period 1960 to 2040. The rationale for, and description of, the model

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have been detailed previously26 and are briefly provided in Text S2.1. Here, substance accumulation in

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the process labeled “in-service (LC5)” in CiP-CAFE is used to describe in-use stocks, while waste 7

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stocks are represented by substance accumulation in the processes termed “landfill (WD1)” and

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“dumping and simple landfill (WD3)” (Text S2.1).

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To feed the CiP-CAFE model, we first calculated the annual production of FTPs on a

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homologue-basis in individual CiP-CAFE regions. The global annual production of total technical

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fluorotelomer-based substances (Figure S1)18,

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non-polymeric substances (for use in APs2 and 3) based on a reported ratio of 80%:20%.1 Furthermore,

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because technical fluorotelomer-based substances are mixtures of different homologues of ingredients,

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residuals and impurities, we divided these mixtures according to literature-reported homologue

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composition (for ingredients) and contents (for residuals and impurities) in long-chain (C8-based) and

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short-chain (C6-based) products (Table S1). To reflect a worldwide transition from long-chain (C8-based)

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products to their short-chain (C6-based) alternatives since 2006, we assumed that the fraction of

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long-chain products in total fluorotelomer-based products decreased linearly from 100% before 2005 to

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0% after 2016. This simplified assumption could underestimate the amounts of long-chain products in

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developing countries (e.g., in China27) as domestic production and use of long-chain products are still

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ongoing in these countries. Those in developed countries can be underestimated as well if they

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continued importing long-chain products from developing countries; however, the underestimation

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seems quite moderate, because in most cases the imports are prohibited in developed countries in

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compliance with their regional or national trade regulations. For example, a sampling campaign in

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Norway during 2012 – 2013 indicated that “the emissions from consumer products imported from China

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account for 1.5 per cent of the discharges of PFOA to wastewater influents and 0.3 per cent of the

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emissions of 8:2 FTOH to air”.28 Our global production estimates on a homologue-basis are believed to

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be reliable because, for example, the estimate for C8 FTPs for the period 1970 – 2007 (41.4 – 49.7 kt)

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compares favorably with a previous report of 34.5 kt (32 kt of acrylate5 plus 2.5 kt of urethane12

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polymers). While the absolute amounts of production volumes are admittedly uncertain, they do not

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hinder us to arrive at meaningful conclusions in the following because (i) we focus our attention on

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temporal trends in the relative importance of individual sources, and (ii) both CiP-CAFE and

19, 27

were split into FTPs (for use in AP1) and

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BETR-Global are linear models which enable scaling all absolute outputs to production volumes if

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updated production information is available in the future. Next, the global annual production of FTPs on

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a homologue-basis were attributed into the regions defined in CiP-CAFE: ~5% in Western Europe

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(RE5),29 50% in North America (RE6),30 ~15% in China (RE1, only after 2009),27 and the remainder in

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Japan/South Korea (RE2) (see the locations of manufacturers in Figure SF-1).

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CiP-CAFE sketched geographical redistributions of the regional FTP production via international

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trade among the CiP-CAFE regions, using formulated concentrated DWRs (Table S2) as a surrogate for

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the FTPs subjected to textile/fabric finishing after “formulation (LC2)”, and clothing (Table S2) as a

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surrogate for the FTPs in finished textile/fabric products reaching consumers after “processing (LC3)”.

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Here we assumed that FTPs were imported to or exported from a region in the same proportion as the

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two respective surrogates, because international statistics enabling discrimination between

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FTP-containing and FTP-free commercial products were no available. In order to investigate the

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influence of different product lifespans (LSs) of finished textile/fabric products in AP1 and degradation

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half-lives (HLs) of FTPs in waste stocks on our model results, we ran CiP-CAFE using four scenarios: (I)

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LS=10 yrs and HL=75 yrs, (II) LS=10 yrs and HL=1500 yrs, (III) LS=50 yrs and HL=75 yrs, and (IV)

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LS=50 yrs and HL=1500 yrs. Emission and waste factors used in the CiP-CAFE calculation are

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tabulated in Table S4. Here, we assumed that FTPs are neither released nor degraded during the

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product’s lifespan, as there is substantial difference in the observed reduction in oil- and

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water-repellency or FTP weight among diverse (co)polymer compositions, finishing treatments, and

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textile surface properties in a multitude of laundering or weathering studies.2, 31-33 While many of the

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studies reported negligible FTP losses (from not observed to < 2%) in a limited test time,31-33 no

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information is available for textile/fabric use over a decadal time scale. At the end of their lifespan,

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obsolete FTP-containing finished textile/fabric products in AP1 enter the waste stream, the distribution

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between different disposal approaches following the time-variant regional waste disposal ratios

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(WDRs)26 supplied within CiP-CAFE. Degradation of FTPs in the waste stocks was calculated using the

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four assumed HLs. Emissions of FTPs from the waste stocks were assumed to be negligible because

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FTPs are neither volatile nor soluble.

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Figure 2 Schematic of the modelling strategy in this study. Green boxes indicate model outputs while

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blue boxes indicate data collected from the literature or calculated from model outputs. Red diamonds

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indicate a calculation using models.

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The second step comprises another series of CiP-CAFE runs to estimate the global annual releases

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of FTOHs from waste stocks during the period 1960 – 2040 (Step 2 in Figure 2). Formation of

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degFTOHs was calculated from the degradation of (i) FTPs in two waste stocks and (ii) FTPs released

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into the environment, by assuming that FTOHs are formed from FTPs with the same perfluorinated

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chain length with a yield of 100%.13 The formed degFTOHs in waste stocks, together with the annual

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production of resFTOHs in all three APs, served as inputs for the CiP-CAFE calculation. In Step 2,

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parameters for AP1 were assumed the same as those used in Step 1, and consumer products in APs 2 and

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3 were assumed to be domestically consumed with fixed product lifespans (Table S3). Table S5 tabulates

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partitioning coefficients (KAW, KOW) for FTOHs and degradation half-lives of FTOHs in various

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compartments. Internal energies (∆UOA, ∆UAW, ∆UOW) for adjusting the cited partitioning coefficients to

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different temperature were calculated based on the method in ref34. Activation energies for adjusting the

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degradation half-lives to different temperature were default values in CiP-CAFE and BETR-Global (20

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kJ mol-1 for water and wastewater treatment plant; and 30 kJ mol-1 for soil, landfill, and simple landfill

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and dumping). Emission and waste factors used in the CiP-CAFE calculation are tabulated in Table S4.

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Fate and transformation of FTOHs in the waste stocks are calculated by the Model for Organic

225

Chemicals in Landfills (MOCLA) module contained in CiP-CAFE.

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In order to evaluate the CiP-CAFE results for the different scenarios and to calculate FTOH

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transformation in the environment, we performed global environmental fate simulations for total FTOHs

228

using the BETR-Global model (Step 3 in Figure 2). This model is described in detail in refs.35, 36 and

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briefly in Text S2.2. The CiP-CAFE-derived annual releases of FTOHs, and the amounts of FTOHs

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formed during the degradation of FTPs in the environment, were combined and allocated to the 15° × 15°

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BETR-Global cells as in ref.26. Time-variant atmospheric concentrations of 8:2 and 6:2 FTOH calculated

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by BETR-Global for different scenarios were then compared with monitoring data reported in the

233

literature.

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Then, the annually degraded amounts of resFTOHs and degFTOHs in both waste stocks (calculated

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by CiP-CAFE) and the environment (calculated by BETR-Global) were fractionally converted into

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deg-resPFCAs and deg-degPFCAs, respectively, based on the median values of the estimated molar

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yields (mol %) for the transformation of n:2 FTOH to different PFCA homologues: the degradation of

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n:2FTOH yields 1 mol% for each PFCA homologue with (n-1), (n-2), (n-3) carbons and 5 mol% for

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each PFCA homologue with n and (n+1) carbons.18 The yields correspond to homologue-specific mass

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yields of 4.1% – 6% on a FTOH basis, which agree well with those used in previous modelling

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studies.37-39 Admittedly, the PFCA yields could be somewhat conservative, because we considered

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neither degradation intermediates of FTOHs (e.g., fluorotelomer aldehydes),38 nor the PFCA formation

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from FTP degradation intermediates other than FTOHs (e.g., newly identified 7:2 sFTOH

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[F(CF2)7CH(OH)CH3] in bio-degradation of 8:2 fluorotelomer acrylate),20 due to insufficient

245

information on the multimedia partitioning behavior and degradation kinetics of these intermediates.

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Meanwhile, we did not consider the PFCA formation in the environment resulted from further

247

transformation of the degradation intermediates released from waste stocks. Finally, the converted

248

deg-resPFCAs and deg-degPFCAs in waste stocks, along with the annual production of impPFCAs in all

249

three APs, served as inputs for a third set of CiP-CAFE calculations (Step 4 in Figure 2) to calculate

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time-variant emissions of total fluoroteolmer-related PFCAs for the period 1960 – 2040. Parameters for

251

consumer products in three APs are the same as those used in Step 2. Emission and waste factors used

252

are given in Table S4; partitioning coefficients for neutral PFCAs and degradation half-lives of PFCAs

253

in various compartments are tabulated in Table S6.

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Results and discussion

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Temporal evolution of estimated stocks and releases

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Figure 3 presents the calculated time-variant global in-use and waste stocks of FTPs, as well as

257

annual releases of degFTOHs and deg-degPFCAs into the environment, for long-chain C8-compounds

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(Figures 3a to 3d) and short-chain C6-compounds (Figures 3e to 3h) under the four scenarios.

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Figure 3 Estimated ranges of global in-use stocks (a and e) and waste stocks (b and f) of FTPs, annual

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releases of degFTOHs (c and g) and deg-degPFCAs (d and h) for C8- (from a to d) and C6-compounds

261

(from e to h) from 1960 – 2040 under the four simulation scenarios: (I) LS=10 yrs and HL=75 yrs, (II)

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LS=10 yrs and HL=1500 yrs, (III) LS=50 yrs and HL=75 yrs, and (IV) LS=50 yrs and HL=1500 yrs.

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The global annual releases of resFTOHs are presented in grey shading in panels c and g for comparison.

264 265

Within the given time frame from 1960 to 2040, for both C8 and C6 FTPs, scenarios based on long

266

LS (III and IV) yield larger in-use stocks (Figures 3a and 3e) but smaller waste stocks (Figures 3b and

267

3f), because longer use implies slower transfer to waste; in scenarios with long HL (II and IV), less

268

FTPs are degraded, resulting in larger waste stocks (Figures 3b and 3f). In general, both the in-use and

269

waste stocks peak or plateau when inflows and outflows are similar in magnitude. For example, in-use

270

stocks of C8 FTPs (Figure 3a) peaked at 21 – 25 kt in 2010 (Scenarios I and II) or 49 – 59 kt in 2014

271

(Scenarios III and IV) when increasing rates of discarding matched decreasing rates of new use (the

272

latter a result of the phase-out of C8 FTPs). Likewise, in-use stocks of C6 FTPs (Figure 3d) are expected

273

to level off at 59 – 70 kt after 2027 (Scenario I and II) when the increasing discard rates catch up with

274

the annual rates of new use of C6-based finished products (which is assumed constant according to 13

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annual production data in ref.18). Furthermore, for both the in-use and waste stocks, the difference in

276

stock size due to a change in LS (i.e., Scenarios I and II vs. Scenarios III and IV) is more notable than

277

that due to a change in HL (i.e., Scenarios I and III vs. Scenarios II and IV). This indicates that, when

278

both are at possibly realistic levels, product lifespan is more crucial than degradation half-life to an

279

accurate description of FTPs stocks.

280

The estimated annual multimedia releases of degFTOHs in Figures 3c and 3g are the sum of

281

degFTOHs (i) released from waste stocks and (ii) transformed from FTPs released in the environment.

282

The releases of degFTOHs via the former route varied over three orders of magnitude among the

283

scenarios, with the calculated cumulative releases of 8:2 degFTOHs ranging from 11.5 – 13.8 t under

284

Scenario IV to 1700 – 2038 t under Scenario I and those of 6:2 degFTOHs ranging from 0.7 – 0.9 t

285

under Scenario IV to 126 – 152 t under Scenario I by 2015. By contrast, the releases of degFTOHs via

286

the latter route were quite similar for the different scenarios, namely 22 – 37 t for 8:2 degFTOHs and 3 –

287

6 t for 6:2 degFTOHs by 2015. Consequently, the relative importance of the two sources of degFTOHs

288

varied considerably between the four scenarios. Furthermore, the atmosphere was predicted to receive

289

the dominant share (97% – 99%) of degFTOHs. Volatilization with landfill gas is the predominant route

290

by which degFTOHs enter the atmosphere. This finding echoes Washington et al.’s assessment that

291

“landfills are not airtight” and “commercial FTPs potentially might be a source of fluorotelomers to the

292

environment even after disposal”.4

293

For both 6:2 and 8:2 degFTOHs, the annual releases in scenarios with short HL (I and III) are

294

almost 1 order of magnitude higher than in those using long HL (II and IV); that is, the estimated annual

295

releases of degFTOHs are affected to a larger extent by a change in HL – which is in contrast to the

296

sensitivity of stocks to LS – when both the HL and LS vary within a realistic range. Annual releases of

297

8:2 degFTOH are anticipated to peak around 2022 in Scenario I and decline afterwards, due to the rapid

298

depletion of C8 FTPs waste stocks in this scenario (Figure 3b); while in other scenarios releases of both

299

8:2 and 6:2 degFTOHs are projected to keep increasing throughout the simulation period.

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The estimated annual multimedia releases of deg-degPFCAs in Figures 3d and 3h are the sum of

301

deg-degPFCAs (i) liberated from waste stocks and (ii) transformed from the degFTOHs released into the

302

environment. The latter is currently dominant, with contributions to cumulative releases of 89% – 95%

303

for deg-degPFOA and 68% – 97% for deg-degPFHxA by 2015 under different scenarios. The dominance

304

of the latter route is understandable as our calculations find that (i) 97% – 99% of degFTOHs volatilize

305

with landfill gas into the atmosphere, where 94% – 97% of them degrade into deg-degPFCAs within a

306

year, (ii) by contrast, less than 3% of the deg-degPFCAs generated from the degFTOHs remaining in

307

waste stocks are annually released via leachate (Table S6). That leaching is not an efficient route for

308

delivering a significant amount of deg-degPFCAs into the environment in the short term, is mostly

309

because the area-specific leachate flow, which equates to the average annual precipitation in a region (~

310

1 m yr-1),26 is too small. Likewise, Yan et al.16 estimated that annually 1.8 ± 3 t of PFOA were leached

311

from landfills across China based on samples collected in 2013, which accounts for a mere ~3% of the

312

annual national emissions of PFOA (< 60 t in 201227) in China. In fact, the inefficiency of leachate

313

releases is also the case for a wider range of soluble compounds such as phenol.40 The above result

314

implies that, due to such a “trickle”, the residence time of deg-degPFCAs generated in waste stocks can

315

reach multiple decades if not centuries, i.e., waste stocks are a reservoir slowly releasing deg-degPFCAs.

316

Figure S2 presents an additional long-term calculation to 2100 of annual releases of deg-degPFOA from

317

the two routes under Scenario I. While the formation of deg-degPFCAs in the environment will

318

moderately decline after 2020 due to the depletion of C8 FTP waste stocks (Figure 3b), the releases of

319

deg-degPFCAs from waste stocks will increase throughout the simulation period. After 2090, the annual

320

releases from the two routes will be comparable.

321

Interestingly, the calculation by the MOCLA module in CiP-CAFE suggests that short-chain PFCA

322

homologues are almost 2 orders of magnitude more likely than long-chain ones to migrate from waste

323

stocks to the hydrosphere (Table S6). This is because short-chain PFCA homologues are more water

324

soluble and adsorb less to landfill organic matter (i.e., lower log KOW in Table S6). If we further take into

325

account the migration of precursors, i.e., short-chain FTOH homologues volatilize more from waste

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stocks to the atmosphere due to their higher vapor pressure,41 we can definitely expect higher relative

327

release rates of short-chain deg-degPFCAs than long-chain deg-degPFCAs. For example, our

328

calculations demonstrate that, during the simulation period 1960 – 2040, the cumulative consumption of

329

C8 FTPs (55 – 66 kt) is estimated to be 25-fold higher than that of C4 FTPs (2.1 -2.5 kt), yet the

330

cumulative releases of deg-degPFOA (280 – 347 t) are only 6-fold higher than those of deg-degPFBA

331

(data not shown in Figure 3). That short-chain deg-degPFCAs are more readily released implies that the

332

use of short-chain FTPs may have a more significant immediate influence on the environment, while

333

long-chain FTPs are more likely to be a long-term threat.

334

Analogous to the sensitivity of degFTOHs above, HL was identified as the factor with the most

335

influence on the annual releases of deg-degPFCAs, as those releases are considerably higher in

336

Scenarios I and III (Figures 3d and 3h). Scenario I led to the highest release of deg-degPFCAs. The

337

annual releases of deg-degPFOA and deg-degPFHxA are predicted to increase throughout the simulation

338

period, except for Scenario I in which releases of deg-degPFOA reach a plateau (Figure 3d).

339

Rising contributions of FTP degradation to global FTOH releases

340

In addition to the amount of FTOHs released as a result of FTP degradation (degFTOHs), the

341

CiP-CAFE model also estimated the amount of FTOHs released as residuals (resFTOHs, grey shading in

342

Figures 3c and 3g). The annual releases of 8:2 resFTOH are estimated to have substantially increased

343

since the 1990s with a peaked around 2007 (the year after the worldwide transition from

344

long-chain-based commercial products to their short-chain alternatives began); those of 6:2 resFTOH

345

have increased steadily until reaching a plateau in 2007. Our estimates agree with earlier studies. For

346

example, our annual 8:2 resFTOH emissions (80 – 320 t yr-1 for the period 2000 – 2004 on average) are

347

generally similar to those reported by Prevedouros et al.19 (~100 t yr-1 for 2002), Wania37 (100 – 200 t

348

yr-1 for 2000 – 2005) and Schenker et al.39 (60 – 155 t yr-1 for 2000 – 2005); they are also within the

349

range of ~0.5 to ~ 300 t yr-1 which can be calculated from the data presented in Wang et al.18

350

The relative contributions of degFTOHs and resFTOHs to the total releases change over time. 8:2

351

resFTOH dominated the annual total emissions of 8:2 FTOH prior to approximately 2010, its

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contribution exceeding that of 8:2 degFTOH by a factor of 2 (Scenario I) to 2 orders of magnitude

353

(Scenario IV). Since 2010, the relative importance of 8:2 degFTOH has been increasing in the wake of

354

the phase-out of long-chain products in most world regions. Such a transition from resFTOH-dominant

355

to degFTOH-dominant releases is also obvious for Scenario I of 6:2 FTOH (Figure 3g), in which the

356

annual releases of 6:2 degFTOH would exceed that of 6:2 resFTOH by approximately 2025. Our finding

357

of the dominance of resFTOHs is consistent with previous studies.11, 13 For instance, van Zelm et al.13

358

calculated that 8:2 resFTOH constituted up to 75% of the total 8:2 FTOH in European air, freshwater

359

and seawater prior to 2025, although their estimated annual releases of 8:2 degFTOH are at least one

360

order of magnitude higher than ours because the authors assumed that, before entering the use phase,

361

one third of historically produced FTPs had been liberated from industrial processes and subjected to

362

degradation.

363

The dominance of resFTOHs before around 2010 also provides justification for the good agreement

364

between measured and modelled FTOH concentrations in a series of earlier modelling studies37, 39, 42

365

which were based on emission estimates of resFTOHs alone. Furthermore, we modelled the atmospheric

366

concentrations of FTOHs using the BETR-Global model and our CiP-CAFE-derived multimedia

367

emission estimates of resFTOH and degFTOH under Scenario I. The modelled concentrations of 8:2 and

368

6:2 FTOHs were then plotted against measured concentrations (Figure 4), which had been reported from

369

large-scale sampling cruises or on-land campaigns1,

370

representative BETR-Global cells (Figure SF-1). Cells covering the territory of mainland China were

371

excluded from the comparison, because the ongoing production and new uses of long-chain products in

372

China could still be a cause for resFTOH releases thus resulting in an underestimation in 8:2FTOH

373

concentrations. Figure 4a and 4b demonstrate good agreement between measured and modelled 8:2

374

FTOH concentrations, whether the releases of 8:2 degFTOH from scenario I are considered or not

375

(Figure 3c). However, including releases of 8:2 degFTOH (Figure 4b) improves model agreement with

376

the more recent measurements, most notably the latest available measurements (at the bottom left)

377

which were sampled between Oct. 2010 and Jan. 2011.44 Such an improvement lends supports to our

43-54

so as to encompass a wide span of

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378

hypothesis of an increasing contribution of degFTOHs. Compared with Scenario I, the improvements in

379

the other scenarios were less remarkable (data not shown) because the estimated releases of 8:2

380

degFTOH are much smaller than those of 8:2 resFTOH (Figure 3c). It should be noted that, while

381

agreement with measurements is best using Scenario I (Figure 4b), we are reluctant to pronounce one

382

scenario more realistic than another, because (i) the contribution of degFTOHs is rather low at present

383

(Figure 3c) thus being easily drowned out by the considerable uncertainty or variability associated with

384

the measurements (error bars in Figure 4); and (ii) the number of recent (especially since 2011)

385

measured data is limited. In addition, while we believe that the bulk of FTPs degrade during the waste

386

disposal phases, there can be continuous, but currently unquantifiable, losses or degradation of in-use

387

FTPs due to washing, abrasion or weathering.2 Figure S3 indicates that assuming the degradation of an

388

annual loss of 2%, 5% and 40% of in-use stocks of FTPs elevates the annual releases of degFTOHs and

389

deg-degPFCAs (under Scenario I) by a factor of approximately 3, 5 and 15, respectively. This would

390

lead to an overestimation of the observed atmospheric occurrence of total FTOHs, given the good

391

agreements between our modelling results and measurements in Figure 4. Nevertheless, investigations

392

on FTP loss during the use phase are required to allow quantification of this potential source. For 6:2

393

FTOH (Figure 4c and d), while including 6:2 degFTOH releases improves model agreement with the

394

more recent measurements as well, the improvement is too minor to be readily perceived from the figure,

395

because the estimated releases of 6:2 degFTOH are nearly 2 orders of magnitude lower than those of 6:2

396

resFTOH.

397

From a regulatory perspective, our calculation implies that the increasing contribution of FTP

398

degradation has the potential to partially offset the reduction in FTOH residuals in products achieved by

399

the 2010/15 PFOA Stewardship Program and other regulatory efforts. This could partially explain the

400

recent rebound of declining atmospheric concentrations of 8:2 FTOH; for instance, a multiannual trend

401

analysis indicated that 8:2FTOH concentrations in samples from the Global Atmospheric Passive

402

Sampling (GAPS) Network initially declined from 2006 – 2008 (33 – 46 samples each year) but then

403

increased again from 2009 – 2011 (19 – 34 samples each year).55

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Figure 4 Comparison between literature-reported measured and BETR-Global modelled atmospheric

405

concentrations of 8:2 FTOH (a and b) and 6:2 FTOH (c and d) at different sites (see Figure SF-1 for

406

their BETR-Global cells). The BETR-Global simulations were based on the annual releases of

407

resFTOHs alone (a and c), and combined resFTOHs and degFTOHs under the Scenario I (b and d).

408

Diagonal lines represent perfect agreement (solid), and agreement within a factor of 100.5 (dashed) and

409

10 (dotted). Error bars indicate range of the concentrations (i.e., the difference between maximum and

410

minimum).

411 412

FTP degradation in waste stocks as a long-term source of PFCAs

413

We compared the annual releases of deg-degPFCAs estimated above (Figures 3d and 3h) with other

414

PFCAs sources, i.e. impPFCAs and deg-resPFCAs (both liberated from waste stocks and formed in the

415

environment) (Figure S4), which are also related to the uses of fluorotelomer-based substances. Figure

416

S4 shows that, for both PFOA and PFHxA, the annual releases of deg-resPFCAs are nearly 3 orders of

417

magnitude higher than those of impPFCAs. The releases of impPFOA and deg-resPFOA are anticipated

418

to cease within a decade when the service life of non-polymeric C8 fluorotelomer-based substances (e.g.,

419

AFFFs and surfactants) comes to the end. This is in contrast to the release of deg-degPFOAs (Figure 3d),

420

which will last for decades and even centuries. Currently, the deg-degPFOA is estimated to account for 3%

421

(Scenario II and IV) – 30% (Scenario I) of deg-resPFOA. Such a dominance of deg-resPFOA in the total

422

FTP-related PFOA releases has also been reported by Russell et al.,5 who indicated that deg-degPFOA

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had contributed 18% to the PFOA historically released from FTP-related sources by 2007 while

424

deg-resPFOA had contributed 77%, based on the assumed degradation half-life of 1000 – 2000 yrs.

425

A number of other PFCA sources18, 19 exist apart from the three (deg-degPFCAs, deg-resPFCAs and

426

impPFCAs) considered in this work (Figure 1). The most recent reliable estimate of the global total

427

release of PFCAs (C4 – C14) from these sources is approximately 5600 – 13000 t between 1951 and

428

2015 (under the plausible scenario),18 which is nearly 1 order of magnitude higher than the estimated

429

cumulative release of deg-degPFCAs (556 – 591 t, C4 – C12) in our highest-release Scenario I for the

430

same period. Therefore, omitting the contribution from the degradation of FTPs when estimating

431

historical PFCA emissions18, 19, 37 should not lead to a significant underestimation.

432

Nevertheless, the degradation of FTPs in waste stocks can be a significant source of PFCAs in the

433

future, in particular when deliberate uses of (long-chain) PFCAs will terminate. Our estimates suggest

434

that 1323 – 1535 t of deg-degPFCAs (C4 – C12) will be released during 2016 – 2040 in Scenario I (data

435

not shown). This level is in the same order as the projected cumulative release of 10 – 3830 t from

436

intentional uses of PFCAs (C4 – C14) for 2015 – 2030 (worst case assuming no restrictions on PFCAs

437

will be taken in developing countries).18 Meanwhile, our long-term calculation under Scenario I (Figure

438

S2) indicates that, between 2015 and 2100, another 7 times as much will be released as the cumulative

439

emissions of deg-degPFOA up to 2015. Moreover, by 2100, 1170 – 1380 t of deg-degPFOA is estimated

440

to be present in waste stocks (data not shown), which is available for leaching into the environment in

441

the following centuries. Our calculations highlight the need for environmentally sound management of

442

the waste stocks of FTPs into the foreseeable future. On the one hand, instead of being deposited in

443

landfills and dumps, destruction and irreversible transformation techniques (e.g., incineration) should be

444

the preferable disposal options for obsolete FTP-containing finished products; on the other hand, landfill

445

gases and leachates from historical and current landfills and dumps, which are respectively the two

446

major routes liberating degFTOHs and deg-degPFCAs into the environment, should be appropriately

447

treated or remediated.

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Supporting Information

449

Texts describing terms and models used in this study, and generation of FTOHs from degradation of

450

polyfluoroalkyl phosphates; tables detailing homologue composition and contents, international trade

451

and lifespan distribution of consumer products, emission and waste factors, and physicochemical

452

properties of modelled chemicals; and figures depicting global annual production of technical

453

fluorotelomer-based substances, additional release estimates, and illustration of the influence from

454

considering assumed FTP loss during use phase. This material is available free of charge via the Internet

455

at http://pubs.acs.org.

456

Acknowledgment

457

The authors thank Roland Weber for insightful discussion on PFAS leaching from waste stocks. This

458

study was financially supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No.21577002). L.

459

L. acknowledges scholarships from the China Scholarship Council and Shanghai Tongji Gao Tingyao

460

Environmental Science and Technology Development Foundation.

461

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Transformation of FTPs, FTOHs and PFCAs in the environment and waste stocks [R' = H or methyl group; R = H or (meth)acrylic group]. Arrows in solid line denote the substance flows quantified in this work: estimating stocks of FTPs, and annual releases of degFTOHs and deg-degPFCAs, are the main objectives (denoted as blue and red shadings); annual releases of resFTOHs, deg-resPFCA and impPFCAs are also calculated for comparison. Arrows in dashed line represent substance flows not quantified. The box “other PFCA sources” includes all PFCAs sources in Wang et al.18 other than the three considered here. Figure 1

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Schematic of the modelling strategy in this study. Green boxes indicate model outputs while blue boxes indicate data collected from the literature or calculated from model outputs. Red diamonds indicate a calculation using models. Figure 2

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Estimated ranges of global in-use stocks (a and e) and waste stocks (b and f) of FTPs, annual releases of degFTOHs (c and g) and deg-degPFCAs (d and h) for C8- (from a to d) and C6-compounds (from e to h) from 1960 – 2040 under the four simulation scenarios: (I) LS=10 yrs and HL=75 yrs, (II) LS=10 yrs and HL=1500 yrs, (III) LS=50 yrs and HL=75 yrs, and (IV) LS=50 yrs and HL=1500 yrs. The global annual releases of resFTOHs are presented in grey shading in panels c and g for comparison. Figure 3 85x41mm (300 x 300 DPI)

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Comparison between literature-reported measured and BETR-Global modelled atmospheric concentrations of 8:2 FTOH (a and b) and 6:2 FTOH (c and d) at different sites (see Figure SF-1 for their BETR-Global cells). The BETR-Global simulations were based on the annual releases of resFTOHs alone (a and c), and combined resFTOHs and degFTOHs under the Scenario I (b and d). Diagonal lines represent perfect agreement (solid), and agreement within a factor of 10^0.5 (dashed) and 10 (dotted). Error bars indicate range of the concentrations (i.e., the difference between maximum and minimum). Figure 4 177x48mm (300 x 300 DPI)

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