BUSINESS
Demand for Acrylic Fiber Continues To Drift Downward Du Font's decision to exit market will cut U.S. capacity for fiber by one third; other acrylic producers are moving to fill anticipated void Acrylic fiber producers in Europe and the U.S. expect acrylic fiber demand to continue to decline over the long term. Du Pont's June announcement that it would cease production of acrylic fiber in the U.S. (C&EN, June 18, page 5) will have a negligible effect on European producers, but it may help increase capacity utilization for the remaining U.S. producers. Du Pont's production capacity represents about one third of the total U.S. capacity of 645 million lb for acrylic fibers. According to Paul G. Gillease, Du Pont's director of textile fibers, the company has already stopped producing Orion acrylic at its Waynesboro, Va., plant. The one remaining plant in Camden, S.C., will continue to run "for an indeterminate amount of time," though the target is to close the plant by the end of this year. Gillease says Du Pont plans to remain flexible with its closing date "to assure supplies to customers." He adds that the company is "negotiating with a number of people" to sell equipment, proprietary technology, and trademarks associated with its acrylic fiber operation. Contributing to Du Pont's decision to exit the acrylic fiber market was a move in the textile industry away from the use of acrylic in fleece fabrics for athletic wear to all cotton and cotton/polyester blends. Du Pont supplies Dacron polyester for fleece fabrics. Aside from polyes-
ter, Du Pont is directing its attention to its other profitable fibers—nylon and spandex. Acrylic sales represent less than 10% of Du Pont's annual fiber sales of about $3 billion, says Gillease. Figures compiled by the Fiber Economics Bureau confirm the market move away from acrylic fibers. U.S. acrylic production declined 14% between 1985 and 1989 to 543 million lb. In the first six months of 1990, production fell an additional 11% from first-half 1989 to 250 million lb. The shift from acrylic to cotton/ polyester blends has already taken place in fleece wear, sweaters, and socks, says William Howie, marketing manager of knits and sewing thread for Eastman Chemical. Any benefit to Eastman, manufacturer of Kodel polyester, took place last year, he says. Howie notes the long-term trend away from acrylic fiber. Eastman itself was once an acrylic fiber producer, but it quit that business in 1984. While acrylic fiber fortunes de-
cline, at least one competing fiber rides the crest of a wave of popularity. According to Ira Livingston, vice president of U.S. marketing for Cotton Inc., the fiber marketing agency of U.S. farmers, demand in the U.S. for cotton is as high as it has been in 22 years. U.S. textile mills have increased their consumption of cotton 25% between 1985 and 1989 to 7.9 million 480-lb bales. Livingston figures that cotton's share of the market for apparel and home furnishings, excluding the 2 billion lb market for broadloom, has risen from 43% in 1985 to 53% in the first six months of 1990. In addition, cotton prices have declined recently even as acrylic and other synthetic fiber prices have been affected by the Persian Gulf conflict, which is increasing costs of energy and petrochemicals. Cotton prices not long ago were as high as 80 cents per lb but have recently declined to close to 70 cents, says Livingston. A reason for this decline is Cotton Inc.'s forecast that U.S. farmers will harvest a 16 million bale crop for the 1990-91 season, the largest crop since 1952-53. Monsanto, the second largest U.S. producer of acrylic fiber, aggressively met Du Pont's announcement of its withdrawal in June with the assertion that it could supply all of Du Pont's former customers and could, in fact, add 50 million lb to its existing 270 million lb capacity if needed. A spokesman says orders for acrylic fiber from Du Pont's customers were not immediately forthcoming because Du Pont continues to supply acrylic that customers are now stockpiling. Others in the industry confirm this impression and say they have only filled sampling requests to acrylic yarn producers. However, Monsanto has not waited for a possible recovery of the^ October 1, 1990 C&EN 9
Business acrylic fibers market. It has turned to boosting acrylic in the broadloom market to increase its production volume. Gary Petersen, director of marketing programs for the fibers division of Monsanto Chemical, says the company is supplying producerdyed acrylic for broadloom. The company markets its acrylic as Acrilan Plus, an all-acrylic fiber for broadloom, and as Traffic Control Fiber System, a blend of acrylic and nylon. Acrylic, Petersen acknowledges, will never have the large share of the broadloom market it had before the advent of easy, continuous dye systems for nylon fibers. But he says that properly constructed acrylic broadloom offers wear performance equal to nylon and aesthetics that ultimately will help Monsanto build an important niche market. Joe A. Mann, chairman, president, and chief executive officer of Mann Industries, who owns and operates the former BASF acrylic fiber business, says Du Pont's withdrawal will have a minimal effect on his business. "We have some new industrial yarn business they had/' he says, but Mann Industries' strategy is to develop its own specialty yarns for niche markets. Mann says the company's homopolymer fiber will allow the company to increase sales of industrial fibers for filter products, papermakers felt, pump packing, and assorted asbestos fiber replacements. Mann says he hopes a new antimicrobial acrylic fiber for which the company is seeking Food & Drug Administration approval will develop into a market for surgical barrier cloth and nurses uniforms, as well as for socks, shoe liners, and sportswear. In Europe, Courtaulds is consolidating its own output of acrylic fibers with the planned permanent shutdown of an acrylic fiber plant in Calais, France, and with a deal to combine its Spanish acrylic fiber business with Montefibre, a part of Enimont Group, in which Courtaulds will have a minority stake. According to David Wilkinson, director of corporate communications for Courtaulds, the company plans to supply acrylic to the French market from its Grimsby facility in England. Wilkinson noted the irony of 10
October 1, 1990 C&EN
Courtaulds' situation compared with four years ago when Courtaulds was rumored to be negotiating the purchase of Du Pont's acrylic business—a rumor it never denied. Courtaulds' orderly withdrawal from the acrylics business is "a sign of the times. It is a sensible move," says Wilkinson. The problem, he says, is a decline of knitwear and hand-knit craft yarns going to the production of casual acrylic apparel in favor of the current demand for tailored woven fabrics using other fibers. Du Pont "has bowed to the inevitable," says Wilkinson, and the American producer's withdrawal from the market will have little impact in Europe. Courtaulds exports acrylic to the U.S. market, and, although the company has received some inquiries as a result of the Du Pont announcement, it doesn't ex-
pect any sizable increase in business in the near future as a result. Mobay's general manager for fibers, Rolf Viehoever, hopes the company will get some increase in orders for acrylic fiber, which its parent company, Bayer, supplies to U.S. users from West Germany. No large increase in fiber orders has come through though. He notes that Bayer's acrylic fiber is very similar to Du Pont's in that both are manufactured via a dry spun process. A Hoechst spokesman says the company has rationalized its business in acrylics, but does not say to what extent. And Hoechst acknowledges that Du Pont's withdrawal will have little effect in Western Europe. It will have a "gradual" effect on European producers' export markets. Marc Reisch
Major sales forecast for superconductor materials Development of superconducting materials is heading toward significant commercialization in the next five to 15 years, according to speakers at the 2nd World Congress on Superconductivity held in Houston last month. Ongoing and wideranging research programs are under way for development of processes to fabricate these materials, which are targeted for various electronic components for use in many areas. Despite a few significant advances in development of high-temperature superconducting materials that have been realized in the past year, most devices using superconducting materials operate in crucial components at low temperatures of liquid helium (about 4 K) and higher. Sales this year of superconducting devices will total about $350 million, and nearly all will be for use at low temperatures. Most HTS materials sold are of varied compositions of barium, bismuth, calcium, copper (mainly as an oxide), thalium, yttrium, and rare earths. Several compositions are available as powders, rods, wires, and films. A few components such as circuits and electrooptic devices are available, says Richard C. Ropp, vice president for technology of International Superconductor Corp.,
Warren, N.J., a marketer of technology and patents in superconductivity. Many other components incorporating one or more low-temperature superconductors are available. Development of the HTS materials lags because of difficulties in reproducing compositions and in scaling up manufacturing processes. In time, low-temperature superconducting materials will be replaced by the higher temperature compositions, forms, and devices, Ropp says. In the future, helium costs will increase and could become critical to the economics of using some devices that operate at the lower temperatures, he says. How quickly high-temperature superconductivity becomes commercialized depends on the progress in research under way, conference speakers agreed. Because of the large amount of research funding by such government agencies as the Department-of Defense and the National Aeronautics & Space Administration, the major markets initially will be in electronics for communications use in defense and in space programs, says Greg S. Smith, sales/ marketing manager for SSC Inc. of Bothell, Wash., which makes superconductive powders and evaporation and sputtering targets. Between
2000 and 2005, medical and industrial devices will become significant markets for HTS materials, he says. High-energy physics, electronic power distribution, and transportation could become major markets later on. Industrial development and further commercialization will depend in particular on the funding available but also will be strongly influenced by other factors such as competition, performance, and retention of a favorable long-term outlook for superconductivity, Smith says. Large companies continue to put funds into work on materials and devices as part of a long-term investment in R&D. Small companies put funds into R&D with a focus on specific applications that may be sold more quickly. Regardless of size, companies with access to markets for products or to government funding are expected to continue to spend R&D money on superconductivity, says Smith. HTS materials and the devices using these materials will have to meet the same commercialization requirements as other emerging technologies, Smith notes. These requirements are performance (including reliability and design) and cost. Currently, reliability and cost of manufacture are major hurdles. Naturally, materials superconducting at even higher temperatures than now achieved would be a boon to further commercialization. Among items needed in the relatively near term, Ropp cites thin films that superconduct at about 150 K, and ceramics with easier formability and better current-carrying capacity. Low-temperature product development gets the predominant share of industrial funds. Even with accelerated development of HTS materials and devices, Ropp expects that 10 years or more will be needed for the market to reach $5 billion. The three major government projects expected to take most funding in the near term remain the Superconducting Super Collider, the continuous electron beam accelerator facility, and the superconducting magnetic energy storage facility. All involve low-temperature superconductivity. Bruce Greek
Plan to fight major oil spills unveiled The oil industry has unveiled a fiveyear, $800 million program that seeks to prevent another disastrous oil spill like the Exxon Valdez spill of March 1989. The plan is aimed at "catastrophic" spills, which are infrequent but high-cost accidents. Such spills would overwhelm local cleanup teams that can cope with the more frequent, small spills. Under the program, a nonprofit Marine Spill Response Corp. (MSRC) will set up a nationwide network for containment and cleanup of major spills of persistent oil (oil that does not evaporate or degrade quickly), and will support an R&D program on spill control and treatment. To ensure MSRC's independence, it will have no board members from the petroleum or oil transportation industries. And it will be funded by a nonprofit Marine Preservation Association (MPA), composed so far of 20 firms. MSRC replaces a Petroleum Industry Response Organization (PIRO) announced by a top-level oil industry task force in June 1989 (C&EN, July 3, 1989, page 28). The name change reflects expansion of the clientele, with MPA members expected from outside the oil industry, including tanker operators and public utilities, notes MSRC president John D. Costello. Initially, organizers said they hoped to start PIRO operations this summer, with a five-year budget of about $250 million. But both preparation time and budget more than tripled as needs became clearer. Final plans also had to await determination of provisions in the Oil Pollution Act of 1990, which became law in August. One key provision is federal limited immunity for oil spill responders (but not spillers), which protects cleanup operators from liability suits, excluding gross negligence or willful misconduct. But many coastal states don't provide such liability protection. MSRC is trying to get them to adopt the federal standard. MSRC plans to be fully operational by February 1993, with a full-time staff of about 400. Equipment, maintenance, research, and personnel for
the first five years are estimated to cost more than $800 million. Of this, more than $315 million will go for initial equipment, including vessels, trucks, booms, skimmers, chemical dispersants, and wildlife and shoreline rehabilitation tools. The organization will be able to respond to major spills along the Pacific, Atlantic, and Gulf coasts, plus Hawaii, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico. Headquarters will be in Washington, D.C., with five regional response centers: the New YorkNew Jersey metropolitan area; Port Everglades in south Florida; Lake Charles, La.; Port Hueneme, Calif.; and Seattle. Each center will be capable of responding to a spill of up to 30,000 tons (216,000 barrels), roughly the size of the Exxon Valdez spill. Plans for Alaska are still unclear. Alyeska Pipeline Service Co. has greatly improved its spill response capability, Costello says. But talks between industry and state and federal agencies are needed to define the proper role for MSRC, he notes. Alaska's liability law is also an issue. The organization also will support significant expansion of spill cleanup R&D, with a $35 million program over the next five years contracted to outside labs. Progress will be expedited by spending more than half the total in the first two years. "Present spill recovery and cleanup technology is inefficient," notes Costello. Current technology includes mechanical equipment (such as booms and skimmers), chemical treatment (for instance, dispersants), biological treatment or bioremediation (using microorganisms to eat oil), and in-situ burning. MSRC's research will cover the spectrum: methods of minimizing oil losses in a spill and keeping the oil close to the vessel; recovering and treating .oil after it starts to spread, but before it reaches shore; preventing and reducing the impact on shores, including bioremediation; fate and effects of oil in the environment; reducing effects on wildlife; and the health and safety of residents exposed to spills. Any patents will be put in the public domain. Richard Seltzer October 1, 1990 C&EN
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