MARKETS
Adipic's Future Hinges on Nylon Outcome of battle between nylon 66 and 6 will determine future of adipic acid, now a 326 million pound-per-year chemical Adipic acid is at a fork in the growth road. One path could lead eventually to a leveling in demand. The other path promises continued growth. Which way adipic goes depends mainly on developments in nylon, but it will also be influenced by the future market for adipic polyesters, lubricants, and plasticizers. During the last 10 years consumption of adipic acid has increased from about 50 million pounds a year to about 326 million. The big use for adipic acid is in nylon 66 manufacture, during which adipic is reacted with hexamethylenediamine. Chemstrand makes adiponitrile, the common intermediate for hexamethylenediamine, from adipic acid; Du Pont produces its adiponitrile from furfural or butadiene. Total consumption of adipic acid in nylon 66 production last year was about 290 million pounds. Other uses accounted for about 36 million pounds, bringing the 1960 total to about 326 million pounds. The key to adipic acid's future is hidden in the "battle of the nylons." If nylon 6 becomes the more important nylon, as some observers predict, adipic acid will suffer. By 1962, six
Adipic Acid Will Continue Its Growth (Consumption of Adipic Acid) 500
1955
1960
1965
Source: C&EN Estimates
producers of nylon 6 will have 152 million pounds per year of capacity. These firms are figuring that nylon 6 will prosper because of a cost advantage over nylon 66.
Nylon 66 Is Biggest Use
Three Producers Vie for Adipic Markets Company
Plant Location
The industry is keeping a close eye on the nylon plans of Du Pont and Chemstrand. Du Pont has repeatedly denied trade reports that it plans to enter nylon 6 production, and as far as can be determined, neither Du Pont nor Chemstrand has any immediate intention of making nylon 6. Backers of nylon 66 say that it is still not clear whether nylon 6 is cheaper to make and that, in any event, nylon 66 has better physical properties and is easier to process into finished goods. Nylon 6 is used mainly for tire cord, and, except for carpeting, it has not made much headway in textured yarns. In nylon molding resins, the 66 material is due for stiffer competition from other types of nylon. But, because the resin market amounts to less than 10% of the fiber market, individual trends in nylon resins have little effect on the consumption of adipic acid. Nylon production last year was 390 million pounds, and should reach 680 million pounds by 1965. However, there are a lot of "ifs" in the 1965 forecast, especially the tire cord market. Even more uncertain is the share of the market that will be held by nylon 66. Assuming that about 450 million pounds of nylon 66 will be turned out in 1965, there will be a market for some 400 million pounds of adipic acid in nylon manufacture. Other uses for adipic acid will bring total 1965 demand to about 445 million pounds. The four producers of adipic acid— Chemstrand, Du Pont, Monsanto, and Allied's National Aniline Division— now have about 400 million pounds
Annual Capacity (millions of pounds)
Remarks
Chemstrand
Pensacola, Fla.
180
Captive use only
Du Pont
Belle, W.Va. Orange, Tex.
170
Captive use and merchant Sales
Monsanto
Luling, La.
30
Merchant plant
Allied, National Aniline Division
Hopewell, Va.
20
Merchant plant
1960 Consumption, millions of pounds
Nylon 66 manufacture Adipate plasticizers Polyesters for urethane foam
8
Synthetic lubricants
4
Other
6 326
TOTAL Source: C&EN
44
C&EN
estimates
APRIL
2 4, 1 9 6 1
290 18
Source: C&EN
estimates
WEEK'S PRICE CHANGES April 17,1961 Advances CURRENT PREVIOUS
Atropine sulfate, oz. $ 5.50 $ 5.25 Copper scrap, lb.: 0.257* 0.257* No. 1 0.2474 0.237* No. 2 Oleic acid, tanks, lb.: 0.177* 0.167* White 0.157a 0.167* Red Pilocarpine hydro 4.75 5.00 chloride, oz. Scopolamine hydro13.00 14.75 bromide, oz. Stearic acid, c.L, lb.: Single pressed 0.167* 0.177 2 0.177* 0.18 Double pressed 0.197* 0.19 Triple pressed Tin salts, lb.: 0.798 Potassium stannate 0.810 0.658 0.672 Sodium stannate 1.14 Oxide, 400-lb. drums 1.16 Stannous chloride, 1.026 anhyd. 1.044
Declines Acid dyes, bbl., lb.: Black, A $ 0.91 Blue black, SX 1.44 Neutral yellow, GSX 4.60 Anisyl acetate, lb. 4.90 Carbinol, solid, lb. 5.50 Cedrenol, solid, lb. 5.45
$ 0.96 1.55 5.90 5.15 5.90 5.75
per year of capacity. Subtracting the amount of acid that goes into nylon, the three merchant producers (Chemstrand does not sell the acid) have al most 75 million pounds of capacity competing for a 36 million pound mar ket. Price Is Stable. The adipic acid oversupply, discounting nylon, is serious. But despite this, adipic's price has been stable for several years at 3 2 1 / 4 cents a pound. Each pro ducer is known to have considered cutting the price but has decided against it. The overriding factor, ap parently, is that the additional busi ness that could be picked up with a lower price would be more than off set by lower margins on the product. Unless some other factors come into play, the price of adipic acid will prob ably stay at present levels for the time being. Other than nylon, the largest outlet for adipic acid is in adipate plasticizers. Production of these materials last year is estimated at 35 million pounds, equivalent to 18 million pounds of adipic acid. (The U.S. Tariff Commission's figures on adipate plasticizers, totaling about 11 million pounds in 1959, are considerably
under the actual amounts produced because of errors in reporting, trade sources believe.) Output of adipate plasticizers will grow in the future but at a moderate rate. They are used mainly to give added low-temperature flexibility to vinyl resins. Adipate plasticizers are barred from volume markets by their relatively high prices—in the range of 35 to 42 cents a pound. No conceiv able price reduction could make the adipates competitive with phthalate esters, which sell for 25 to 26 cents a pound. Last year, some 8 million pounds of adipic acid was used to make poly esters for urethane foam. Aside from nylon, urethanes make up the most promising growth area for adipic acid. Poly ethers have taken most of the flexible urethane business away from polyesters. But polyesters are ex pected to have a firm place in rigid urethane foams, and polyesters will grow as the market for foam grows. Another potentially large outlet for adipic acid can be found in polyesters used to make urethane elastomers. Synthetic lubricants accounted for about 4 million pounds of adipic acid in 1960. Output of adipate-based lu bricants goes almost entirely to the military, and there is little hope of significant growth in this end use. The reason is that temperature require ments for military lubricants should eventually exceed the range that adi pates can meet. Adipic acid has a number of small volume uses in the food and pharma ceutical industries and is used in the manufacture of some alkyd resins. Taken together, miscellaneous appli cations account for about 6 million pounds a year of acid.
BRIEFS These prices clarify some that were partly incorrect in our price quarterly in C&EN, March 27, pages 68, 69: Alcohol, furfuryl, tanks, dlvd., E. Denver c.L, l.c.l., 500-lb. drums, f.o.b. Memphis Cans, f.o.b., Cedar Rapids Alcohol, tetrahydrofurfuryl, tanks, dlvd., E. Denver c.L, l.c.L, 475-lb. drums, f.o.b. Memphis Cans, f.o.b., Cedar Rapids
$0.175 * 0.18-0.19 0.27 0.25 0.225-0.265
High Temperature High Pressure "HYDROTHERMAL" Research Units
i
* Temperatures to 1200°C. * Pressures to 60,000 psi
ft & * Gases or liquids can be used to transmit pressure I * Temperature and pressure independently variable on each reactor * Pressure indicated continuously I * Corrosion resistant * Delivered in "ready to plug in" condition I I * 1 -, 2-, or 4-reactor units
I ι
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TEM-PRES RESEARCH, inc. DEPT. C, 146 N. ATHERTON ST. STATE COLLEGE, PENNA.
0.345 A P R I L 2 4,
1961 C&EN
45
