detected by a currently accepted reliable analytical procedure— namely, 1 p.p.m. At the same time, work should continue to define a threshold value so that, when it is defined, the standard may be suit ably revised. Since development of the means to attain the recom mended level may take time, we recommend a reasonable period for users of vinyl chloride to come into compliance."
AEC, others at odds on nuclear safety Chances that a person will be killed by a motor vehicle, falling, fire, drowning, firearms, air travel, fall ing objects, electrocution, toxic chemical releases, dam failures, lightning, earthquakes, tornadoes, and—whew!—hurricanes are all far greater than chances that a person Ζ will be killed by a nuclear power υ plant accident. Ray: no such thing as zero risk So says a draft report on a twoyear, $3 million study, "An Assess AEC to say nuclear reactors are un ment of Accident Risks in U.S. safe? After all, they spent $3 mil Commercial Nuclear Power lion funding this story. This study Plants," (WASH 1400) funded by is in no way objective." the Atomic Energy Commission. AEC has asked for comments on The "independent" study was di the draft report of the study by rected by Dr. Norman C. RasmUs- Nov. 1. It can expect a lot. The sen of the department of nuclear final version will be issued next year. engineering at Massachusetts Insti tute of Technology. And it at tempts to estimate the public risks —deaths, health effects, and prop erty damage—resulting from accidents that might befall the 100 nuclear plants of the type now in The serious supply crunch for pro use or to be built by 1980. Sabotage pylene for use in making chemicals was not considered. in this country seems to be about Although the study clearly con over. Demand continues to grow cludes that the risks to the public about as expected, but supplies from accidents are "very small," now are growing faster than they AEC chairman Dixy Lee Ray notes were last winter. As a result, out that "there is no such thing as zero landish spot prices are about over. risk." The major risk involved with This improved situation may slip a nuclear plant, according to the a little next year as domestic pro study, is the release of large pylene falls temporarily behind de amounts of radioactive material re mand. But according to Patrick E. sulting from a series of sequential Draggett of De Witt and Co., a failures of systems permitting the Houston-based consulting firm that fuel to overheat. However, "it is has just completed a worldwide impossible for nuclear power plants propylene marketing study, any to explode like a nuclear weapon." supply crunch in 1975 should not With 100 reactors operating, the be hard to handle. study estimates that one core melt The difference between a supply accident would occur, on the aver of 5.422 million metric tons and a age, every 175 years. And only demand of 5.449 million metric about one in 10 potential core melt tons, about 0.5%, can be met accidents, occurring on the average through imports and a draw on in of once every 17 centuries, might ventories. Quantities of imports produce measurable health effects. will depend on prices in the U.S., Namely, "some increase in the inci and could be well above estimated dence of diseases" and perhaps imports of 60,000 metric tons in some deaths. 1974, if spot prices hold in the 14 to Clearly, the study is not without 15 cent-per-pound range in 1975. its critics. Dr. Daniel Ford of the Prices for propylene for chemicals Union of Concerned Scientists tells will continue to rise and reach the 9 C&EN that he doubts its overall to 11 cent-per-pound range two credibility. He calls the estimates years from now on a volume con "fictionized." If accidents are as re tract basis, up from 3 to 4 cents per mote as AEC says, he notes, then pound a year ago, De Witt says. why won't companies or utilities Worldwide use of propylene in accept the liability for paying dam chemicals will grow slightly faster ages in the event of an accident. than will U.S. use—about 9.5% us. And Jo Litman, speaking on be 8% annually—according to DeWitt. half of a Ralph Nader group—when The company estimates worldwide asked his views of the AEC study— chemical use at 14.2 million metric yelled at the C&EN reporter: tons in 1974 and 17.1 million metric "What do you expect? You expect tons in 1976. NI
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Inflation triggers accounting changes The recent rapid inflation in the price of just about everything is causing chemical companies to take a new look at their accounting pro cedures. Du Pont, for example, re veals that it will switch to full lastin-first-out (LIFO) accounting for its U.S. inventories for 1974, if the Internal Revenue Service approves. The change will have the effect of reducing Du Pont's earnings for the first half of 1974 to $5.10 per share from the previously stated $6.27 and will result in pretax charges of about $300 million against full-year earnings. (Du Pont softens the news about its reduced paper earnings by disclosing at the same time that it is boosting its quarterly dividend 20%, to $1.50.) With LIFO accounting, goods sold or used are valued at the cost of the most recently acquired like items. Using first-in-first-out (FIFO) accounting—which most chemical companies have done in recent years—swells inventory prof its in times of rapid price escala tion, but the growth is more appar ent than real. Du Pont says the switch to full LIFO will more real istically match current income to current revenues. The accounting change also will help conserve cash needed to replace inventories at higher prices and to finance capital programs, the company adds. Meanwhile, Dow Chemical says it is "actively considering and in vestigating" a change in accounting methods but won't speculate as to whether or when. Similarly, Mon santo says it is studying the advis ability of changing to LIFO ac counting but hasn't yet decided; however, it has applied for 1RS per mission. Monsanto notes that if it had used LIFO, its net income for the first half of 1974 would have been reduced by about $34 million, or about $1.00 per common share. One company that doesn't plan to change is Union Carbide. It has been using LIFO since 1941.
Propylene supply crunch seems over
August 26, 1974 C&EN
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