Forecasts predict slow recovery in 1983 Although their mood remains cau tious, a majority of the nation's in dustrial purchasing managers are predicting a recovery of the U.S. economy in 1983, according to the National Association of Purchasing Management's 24th semiannual eco nomic forecast. The prediction joins a flurry of year-end outlook reports, including one from the Chemical Manufacturers Association, express ing generally muted confidence in the chances for an economic rebound next year. Of the 250 purchasing managers surveyed for the forecast, 28% be lieve the first quarter of 1983 will be better than the fourth quarter of 1982, but 15% think it will be worse, says Charles T. Haffey, vice presi dent of the corporate purchasing di vision of Pfizer and chairman of NAPM's Business Survey Commit tee. There is even more optimism that the first half of 1983 will be better than the second half of this year, with 42% predicting improve ment and only 14% predicting de cline. Looking at the entire year, 59% foresee 1983 as better and 11% foresee it as worse. The largely optimistic forecast is tempered by several negative factors, however. Capacity utilization, for example, is at the lowest level at surveyed NAPM members' compa nies since they were first asked to report it 22 years ago. Only 12%—a record low in the history of the forecast—say their companies are producing at 90% of capacity or better, and 19%—a record high—say their companies are operating below 50%. Planned capital spending also is low. Surveyed members have spent less on capital equipment in 1982 than in 1981, and now only 19% say capital expenditures will be higher next year, while 49% say their capi tal spending will be lower. Inflation, on the other hand, worries purchasing managers less than it has in the recent past. Al though 29% of those surveyed say industrial prices will be higher in the first half of 1983 and only 11% think they will be lower, the entire group predicts that those increases will occur on a selective rather than an across-the-board basis. On the other hand, the Chemical Manufacturers Association, in its an nual economic briefing, predicts a strong recovery for the chemical in
dustry in 1983. According to a sur vey of its members, says Myron T. Foveaux, CMA's trade and economic policy adviser, chemical sales will rise to about $191 billion in 1983, 11% higher than the anticipated to tal for 1982. Earnings are expected to rise 15% to $12.3 billion. Capac ity utilization will reach nearly 74%, compared to 70% this year, and ex port volume will remain about the same. CMA members also predict that costs will continue to rise in 1983, though at a lower rate than in past years. Hourly wages will increase 6.5%. Employment will remain about the same. An anticipated 6% increase in R&D expenditures will be "satis factory," Foveaux says, although be low the average annual growth of recent years. Capital expenditures, on the other hand, which rose 1.8% in 1982, will decline 10% in 1983. D
Artificial heart performing well Barney B. Clark, the Seattle dentist who recently became the first hu man to have an artificial heart per manently implanted in him, faces a long and difficult recovery. At press time, Clark was recovering from a series of seizures thought to have been caused by metabolic imbalan ces. So far, Clark's problems have been mainly a result of the long illness that has severely weakened his body, not the remarkable plastic device that now is pumping his blood. That device, known as the Jarvik-7 heart after its designer Robert K. Jarvik, is performing its role well. The major component of the Jarvik-7 heart is a polyurethane tradenamed Biomer. It is produced by Ethicon Corp., a division of John son & Johnson. According to Tom Kessler, supervisor of the prosthet ics laboratory at the University of Utah Medical Center where the sur gery was performed, Biomer was used for most of the parts in the heart because its compatibility with blood has been well established and it has the necessary physical and chemical properties for fabrication into a working artificial heart. Another consideration, Kessler says, was that although Biomer it self cannot be injection molded, many other polyurethanes can. That will be important if a future version of the heart is mass produced. Although parts of the Jarvik-7 are
[O ο ex
Polyurethane is the principal component of the Jarvik-7 artificial heart
not made of Biomer—the base is aluminum, the valves are pyrolytic carbon and titanium, and the valveholding rings are polycarbonate—all of the surfaces that come in contact with blood are made of Biomer. The base, valves, and valve-holding rings are coated with the polymer. The diaphragm in the heart, which is driven by compressed air to pump the blood, consists of four, 0.006-inch thick Biomer membranes with dry, graphite lubricant between each membrane. Four layers are used be cause the researchers have learned that the durability of the diaphragm drops when the thickness of a single membrane exceeds about 0.015 in ches. Four layers also guard against failure in one of the membranes. The Utah researchers also are experimenting with alternative ma terials, such as a polycarbonate base instead of an aluminum one, and with styrene-butadiene rubbers for fabricating the heart diaphragms. D
Research ideas sought from small businesses The Department of Energy is seek ing proposals for new ideas under its Small Business Innovation Re search (SBIR) program. The official proposal solicitation is expected to be published this week and will make DOE one of the first government departments to begin the program. The SBIR program is part of a plan to increase the role of the country's small businesses in meet ing the government's research and development needs. The Small Busi ness Innovation Development Act was signed by President Reagan this Dec. 13, 1982C&EN
7
