Du Pont
slower growth for chemicals
Du Pont's chief economist, Richard A. Stuckey, forecasts that chemical production will grow more slowly in 1990, increasing only 2.5% over this year. This year chemical production will rise just 5% over 1988, Stuckey told the Sterling Bank Economic Outlook Seminar in New York City, down from the 7 to 8% growth in each of the two previous years. The high 1987 and 1988 growth rates put pressure not only on capacity, leading to higher prices, but also on users who had to import product to meet their own manufacturing demands. As a result of pressure from imports, Stuckey says, the U.S. net export deficit did not shrink so much as might have been expected given the drop in the value of the dollar. In constant 1982 dollars, the 1988 net export deficit was $75 billion. Stuckey predicts that deficit will shrink to $50 billion this year and $40 billion in 1990. Stuckey, who is the 1989 winner of the Annual Economic Forecasting Award, sponsored by the Sterling Bank, says he sees a soft landing ahead both for chemical industry and the overall economy in 1990. "Economic indicators suggest cau-
tion," he says, "but signals of any downturn are not yet sufficiently evident. The balances of economic forces are still tilted in favor of slow growth." Because of his belief that a slowdown is ahead, Stuckey predicts just 1.5% real growth in gross national product in 1990, down from his estimate of 2.8% for 1989. The housing market, important to the chemical industry, "should be less of a negative factor . . . as lower mortgage rates help to arrest the threeyear downtrend," he says. Chemical prices have fallen in the past three months, notes Stuckey, but he sees prices firming, particularly for ethylene and polyethylene. Petroleum prices, a factor in chemical feedstock costs, likely will remain stable within a range of $17 to $19 a barrel for the rest of this year and into 1990, he predicts. E m p l o y m e n t costs, d r i v e n by health cost increases, are currently outrunning profitability and sales volume, cautions Stuckey. All in all, he predicts that the unemployment rate will increase to 5.7% in 1990— versus an estimated 5.3% in 1989— reflecting the economic trend. Marc Reisch
World chemical makers back chemical arms ban Representatives of the world's major chemical industries have issued a first-of-its-kind statement pledging their intent to work closely with governments to secure a global, verifiable chemical weapons treaty at the earliest possible date. The seven-point statement expresses the industries' "unequivocal abhorrence of chemical warfare." It affirms the industries' "desire to foster international cooperation for the legitimate civil uses of chemical products." The declaration was made in Canberra, Australia, to the Government-Industry Conference against Chemical Weapons by Tom Reynolds, president of the Chemical Confederation of Australia and chairman of the industry forum at the conference. Reynolds called the statement a "historic document."
Another major a n n o u n c e m e n t , this one from the U.S. domestic industry, was made by Ernest H. Drew, president and chief executive officer of Hoechst-Celanese and senior industry representative on the U.S. delegation. He revealed the Chemical Manufacturers Association's sixstep voluntary effort to "materially assist the progress of the Geneva [chemical weapons treaty] negotiations." The voluntary program requires that each member company of CMA review company export procedures; instill proper awareness of the problems among export and marketing personnel; set up a continuous relationship with government export authorities; implement procedures to ensure that orders of sensitive chemicals are for legitimate purposes; report suspicious inquiries or
Drew: CMA's voluntary program orders to government export authorities; and document all transactions in sensitive materials. Drew notes that the "voluntary program goes substantially beyond the requirements of U.S. law." To facilitate it, CMA is setting up an industry-government "hot line" that "will be useful in halting diversions of potential chemical weapons precursors." Drew stressed the international flavor of CMA's program. He said much of the program "is based on . . . an initiative sponsored by [Verband der Chemischen Industrie], the trade association of the West German chemical industry." Lois Ember
3-D capability eyed for CAS Registry File The recent announcement by Chemical Abstracts Service that it is adding three-dimensional coordinates to the CAS Registry File to facilitate molecular modeling represents an initial step in a long-term effort to revamp the Registry. Future moves could include adding a new form of stereochemical information and perhaps making it possible to do 3-D structure searching directly on the Registry, a widely used database of 9.5 million chemical substances. The first step in the Registry renSeptember 25, 1989 C&EN
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