1228
INDUSTRIAL AND ENGINEERING CHEMISTRY
able up to that time adequately to supply the bulk of the d e mand, the remainder being obtained from pyrites and other datively marginal sources. As a matter of fact, however, producers' stocks had even at that time been progmively red u d over a long period of years because production consistently fell short of des. When demand increased sharply in the latter part of 1950, it beesme apparent that stocks could not be safely reduced further; limitations were therefore placed on des,first by pmducers and later by the National Production Authority. The shortage stimulated a great many technical and commercial investigations,which led to a variety of development progrsmn. Exploration for domes by the established pmducers resulted in several new operations in the United States and promieing developments in Mexico. Another Outstanding result was the construction of a large number of plants for the recovery of sulfur from sour natural gas. Other noteworthy expamion programs included the inc r e d use of pyrites, installation of new facilities for the r e covery of smelter acid, and seved projectslooking toward the pmduction of sulfur from surface native sulfur deposits. Although these expansion program have been accumnlatively successful and the shortage appears to have eased, longer range estimates indicate a shortage a few yearn hence of the order of 1,000,000 tons annually if further expanaion is not forthcoming. As sulfur exports have approached 1,500,000 tons annually in recent years, repercussions of the shortage were felt in foreign countriea as well as in the United States. Numerous expansion prcgrama consequently have been undertaken in various foreign countries, but the total &ect of the foreign projects ondemand for United States sulfur is not yet clear because consumption abroad also is increasing. Tin
The chemical industry ut& a large tonnage of tin in many important compounds, including tin oxide and chloride, stannous dfate, and sodium and potsasiUm stannate. Elec-
I
BASIC MINERALS
Vol. 44, No. 6
trolytic tin plating requires large quantitiee of tin chloride, stgnnous sulfate, and sodium stannate. In 1951 the tin mills required 12,800 long tons of tin for their plating line solutions; and steel wire, automobile pistons, and other items tin-plated in different plants utilized significant tonnages. The heavy and industrial chemical groups comprising tin chloride (and the tin tetrachloride of commerce which is tin and sodium tetrachloride), tin sulfate, and tin oxide accounted for the consumption of 1150 long tons of tm in 1951. U. 5. Tln Supply
1939 70,602 1944 48.886 1949 08.5J5 . . .. 1950 108,797 1951' 57,412 * Pmliminaw.
......
$71.M)8.768 56.991255 211.881.050 ..,...,. 200.066,431 155,710,430 ~
~~
...
30.884 $35,973,683 35.834 . ~ , . 79.710.227 ~ ~ 33,118 70,888,311 31.526 90,603,202 ~
~..
Thousands of tons of tin in the form of metallic t i and chemical compounds are m o v e d annually by detinners from tin-plate clippings and, to a lesser extent, from old cans and crude tin-bring chemical reaiduea. In 1951this industry recovered 3635 long tons of tin as metel and in compounds. Zinc
Mine production of recoverable zinc in the United States incm'sed fmm 583,807 short tons in 1939 to an average of 631,896 tonsin the period 1949 to 1951, a gain of 8%. During the same period, however, consumption increased a t an even greater rate-from 711,000 tons in 1939 to an annual tonnage of 971,000 tons during 1949 to 1951, necessitating larger importa t~ fulfill industrial requirement& Sulfuric acid made from snlfur dioxide gasea produced in m a s t i the minc ore, sphalerite, is an important by-product of zinc smelting. In 1949-51 production of snlfuric acid, 10% baais, from spbaleiite, averaged 574,000 tons per year.
1
energg re8ources- trends; future requirements HAROLD J. BARNETT, Office of Chief Economist, Bureau of Mines, Washington, D. C.
A
number of noteworthy developments in the energy economy have occurred during the past several years. The supply and consumption of natural gas and its by-product liquefied petroleum gas have grown hy leaps and bounds, displacing manufactured gas in a number of important areas remote from the gas fields. Gas pipelrnea to the important New England consuming area are being rapidly pushed to completion, and negotiations for importation of gas from Canada to the Pacific Northwest are under way. So strong is consumer preference for natural gas, given its convenience, efficiency,and low price relative to other fuels, that pipeline construction has not kept pace with demands and rationing of new gas cousumers has taken place, this despite the fact that resewes discovered each year exceed annual consumption. In liquid fuels a noteworthy development, additional to accelerated demands for the war in Korea and the enlarged military program, has been the rapidity of displacement of steam locomotives hy Diesel-electric ones. Deliveriea of Diesel locomotivea have been rnnning well over a thousand per year, and unfilled orders are large. The past year has also seen substantial discussion of the economic feasibility of commerrial production of synthetic liquid fuels. With respect to
liquid fuels from shale, there is a feeling in some quarters that commercial production now or in the very near future could be launched at cost levels approximately competitive with costs of liquid fuels from petroleum. With respect to hydrogmation of coal, on the other hand, considerable d i e agreement exists between informed groups as to commercial feasibility of pmduction of liquid fuels and chemicals from this source. The data and conclusions produced by extensive analyses by government and private sources into the entire range of synthetic liquid fuels queations will be of Darticular interest to chemists and the chemicals industry. Mineral Fuel Developments
The charts on these pages present the recent trends in fuel production, percentage contribution of each fuel, and fuel sales. Medium-term production trends in the fuel economy include: 1. A rise of approximately per year in aggregate . 2%~. .. energy output 2. A decline in the percentage of total energy contributed by solid fuels ~
~~
laaS
I N D U S T R I A L A N D E N G I N E E R I N G CHEMISTRY
IuDe 1952
3. Agradual i n c m in the percentage of energy contributed by petmleum 4. A rapid meresse in the percentage of energy contributed by natural gas The years 1947 and 1949 were not typical relative to these trends. In the former year, a period of strain in postwar djustment, om’-Bge and ine5cient equipment wtm pressed into service to produce for a seller’s market; coal-washing facilitieshad not kept pace with mechanical mining, and the proportion of “dirty” coal entering the market waa higher than usual; numeroue gss pipelines were still under construction; and coal exports for energy-famished foreign were at unusually high levels. In 1947,therefore, total energy production, and the coal proportion of this aggregate, were somewhat higher than might have been expected from trends. In 1949,on the other hand, the occurrence of several lengthy coal strikes and a mild economic &on in the nation 88 a whole caused total energy produetion, and the coal proportion of this aggregate, to be unusually low. The yeara 1950 and 1951 mw a restorstion of the trends described earlier. Aggregate energy output in 1951 KHBto a level about 9% higher than in 1947; this o v e d l gmwth is aocounted for by a 44% increase in natural gas output, a M% increase in supply of petroleum, and a fall in coal pb310- . tion of 16%. As noted earlier, the unusually high d output in 1947 @ccountafor a severity of fall in coal production between 1947 and 1951 which is not typical.
-
INERAL FUELS uction and Value of Sales
BITUMINOUS COAL AWD LIGNITE
1939
19U 1947
MMbuMw1lu
UI
: ; -9491 1950
dh&uuA2E
199 d k m d shed 11M
mLnr orddbn
Proiection for 1965
What are the future requirements for energy commodities liely to be? The answer depends primarily upon the level of economic activity in the nation, and seoondarily upon the composition -the pmdu&mix-of that aagregate production. The chart of energy and national product, page 1231, &ows the nation’s production (press national product measured in constant dollars) during s e d daoades. It shows also the e u t i i t e d level of peacetime, fd-employment national product in 1965. The estiite, which is bssed on extrapolation of individual peat trends of change in population, labor force, work week, and productivity, is also consistent with the psst ovelcall trend of national product for fullemployment years. This, then, is our estimate of the basic variahle on which requirements for energy commodities d e Wd. The following table shows estimates relating to our second variablethe growth of individual sedorsof theeconomy and the composition of national output in 1965. Esiinetd Activity h v e l c ei Energy Conrmnerr in 1966 Activitu Index
(jar7 Inn) ._..= ___, 300 165
230 152 165 116 165
Oler4 e w m r
16S E b b o m indu.tria &own hue are added from m l o W u r l . r 1.dwtw m a w which follow. b Ds~armd.u m n p r o p d ~ m cd anert~.c o m m d h u .
We may not, however, apply these growth indexes of individual industries to energy consumption in ewh of those
.............. ........... Pmmw C N d O
19U 1947
139
1949 -Aq3
1142
9.
’
”
I N D U S T R I A L A N D E N 0 I N.E E R I N G C € EI M IST R Y
1230
Vol. 44#No. 6
-
SOURCES OF ENERGY
10"
I.I.Y.
c
SHALE 011
NANtAl 6AS
ANIHRACITE
I pclll
industries in our base year, because efficiencyin energy utilization in 1965 will have substantially improved over 1947 levels. Having regard to t h w estimated efficiency changes and utilizing our projections of levels of activity in the various sectors of the economy, we project the energy demands shown in the table Mow. Toto1 Energy Conimption (In
Power
Motion Other Subtotal
Exports
2.0 4.4 1.0 15.6 3.0
3.6 6.0 1.4 21.8 1.6 47.2-48.6
I
BINMINOUS COAL AND LIGNllE
to the displacement of d i d fuel and the net growth ih requirements, this economy is aasumed to tend primarily to natural gss and secondarily to fuel oil. Case B is identical with c88e A, except that the primary tendency is to fuel oil and the secondary one to natural gas. In case C it is ~ s 8 u m ~ d that cod maintains ita 1947 position vis-a-visother fuels in the production of heat and electric power in the individual consumption sectors. Case D is a variant of c8se C; it
loy B.t.u.1
Enerw producing indwkiei 5.5 6.68.2' Electroproceisindustried 0.6 1.2 Iron and steel group 2.9 4.2 Chemicals m t l p 1.4 2.7 Textile group 0.4 0.5 Stone, day, and glass group 0.9 1.3 Food and kindrsd group 0.7 0.9 Paper and d i e d group 0.7 0.9 A o d e m ~ smeWs group 0.2 0.3 Other nunufactaring and mining 1.2 2.0 SubtoW 11.5 20.622.2 Railroads 3.7 2.1-2.3s shipping 0.8 0.9 Household, commerdd, m d other Had 8.2 10.8
'a
2WO' 100
COMPOSITION OF ENERGY SUPPLY
4s
93 21 42 27 32 80 62 42-53 (40.15JO 33 80 37 42
4a
TOW r 6 26-20 Demnds upon ~ropotiouaof ornew oommoditias. Excluded fmm rmnufwturing indwtry eouw nhioh follow. Decrew.
In terms of energy production by primary sourma,the alternative energy supply packages which would be required are shown in charta on sources and composition of energy supply. Case A ansumesan economy that, for price, convenience, and other considerstions relevant in a free consumer-choice economy, continues preaent tendencies sway from solid fuels in the nmrlnotinn of heat and electric power. With respect
1
I N D U S T R l A L A N D ENGINEERING CHEMISTRY
Jum 1952
ditiers only in the wumption that there will be synthetiwil production of 65,ooO,000to 70,000,000 barrels per year from eseh of shale and cod, instead of an quivslent volume of c r u d e d imports.
COST OF N L U AND
1231
LllEIQI
Observations
-
The projected energy supply required to satisfy ’1965 demands is about 30% greater than the 1947 supply. Since, dwing the lSyear period 1947 to 1965, the nation’s total economic activity is projected at 65% greater than in 1947, our condnshn is that energy requiremanta an? growing less rapidly thsn mtional product. Efficiency gains in energy utilisation, the slow ratea of increase in demand for fuels for motion and heat, and the decliie in energy exports 8ignifiesntly oilsat the more rapid rate of increase in demand for energy for electroprooess and chemical industries and for household electric power. Two of the projected e5cieucy gains are particularly no& worthy. Average thermal e0iciency in electric power generation is projected for 1965 at .?%, as compared with the 2% level in 1847. And, because Diesel lomotives haul 4(100 gross ton miles of freight per million B.t.u. as compared with Ooal steam locomotives which haul only 600 to 700 gross ton miles per million B.tu. of fuel, the &ect of continued s u b stitution of Diesels for coal locomotives is estimated to reduce railmad fuel requirement? by almwt half, despite a projected increase of 50% in mil t m 5 c .
nxm d prodmb petrelnm nnd
cwl produrn
Energy ConrumpHon and National Product
On the hasis of the projections above, which an? b a d on projections of growth in individnal energy-consuming sedors,
Ukdltnklln
.
Rilia
(0
lllD
1110
1920
h n l : U. I. hmr d y*n
19M
194a
1950
19M1
we reach the conclusion that the over-sll trend of the paat ssveml generations in the relationship between total B.t.u. consnmed and aggregate national product (in constant p r i d is likely to continue during the next generation. This is, in some ways, a very w f u l conclusion, as it reaswea us that a short-cut method of projecting aggregate energy consumption as a function of national product is, for medium term projections, a satisfactory rough approximation of d t a which would be achieved hy more elegant and detailed projection techniques. For identihation of particular fuels, applim tions, &ciencies, etc., it still remains nemmy, of coum, to make the e s t h t e a in such a way that these varhhles c ~ l lbe ~pecificallya d d r e d , ae wm done in ‘%Energy Uses and Supplies, 1939, 1947, 1965” (Buresu of Mines, I n f m t i o u Circular 7582), which underlies the present short article; otherwiqe individual energy commodities cannot he projected. It remains necessluy also, if the short-cut method is used, to guard against applying the B.t.u.-national product relationship to an economy which is sharply dserent from the one for which the relationship waa derived in the first instance. And it m i n s true in this caw, as always, that projections must be tsken with a grain of salt. Thee point? are illustrated by the chart of energy and national product, which shows: 1. B.t.u. per unit of national d u c t hns with good persistence been declining at about 1% per year during the past threeor four decades. 2. The relationship was distorted during World War 11. 3. S i c s n t deviations or changes from the average d d i relation p have occurred in the past. The p-t trend, for exam le, began only three or four ,decades ago. Prior to then %e B.t.u.-national product ratio appears to have been constant or rising.
