industry/Business
Engineers trapped by shifts to new priorities The nation is beset by technological problems, but many engineers are still unemployed; is economic conversion the answer? Question: Which of the following phrases best describes the nature of engineering employment today? a. A paradox. b. A national disgrace. c. Manpower myopia. d. A second chance. Answer: all of the above, if the opinions registered at a recent two-day conference on engineering employment are an indication of the reality of the situation. Sponsored by the National Society of Professional Engineers, the Washington, D.C., conference focused on the problems of engineers and scientists, as well as of industries, caught in the crunch of conversion to new national priorities. Although the conference emphasized the defense and aerospace industries and manpower, many of the lessons were clearly ap-
plicable to the chemical industry and profession. The topics discussed by the more than 150 attendees included the definition of engineering employment today, the future role of engineers and engineering, the practical extent to which engineers and their skills can be shifted from aerospace and defense to urban and environmental projects, and the practical extent to which the aerospace and defense industries themselves can shift. Paradox. Dr. Myron Tribus, senior vice president of Xerox Corp. and former assistant secretary of commerce for science and technology, and Sen. Edward M. Kennedy (D.-Mass.) led the list of participants. Dr. Tribus says engineering employment is a paradox; Sen. Kennedy calls it a national disgrace; Frank Coss of Deutsch Shea & Evans manpower advertising agency terms it "manpower myopia." "The nation is beset with all kinds of major problems demanding technological solutions," Dr. Tribus points out, "yet more than 65,000 engineers and scientists are currently unemployed." Moreover, as many as 200,000 may be unemployed by the end of 1971. This "crisis of technological utiTribus (left), Kennedy (lower left), and Hotchkiss (below): engineering employment is a national disgrace C&EN: Madeleine Polinger
lization," he believes, reveals itself primarily in the continuing deterioration of the U.S. balance of trade. "Our ability to pay our way in the world depends completely on our ability to lead in high technology," he contends. Dr. Tribus deplores the Government's lack of a national manpower policy and urges formation of a Council of Technological Advisers (C&EN, June 21, page 23) to investigate the competitiveness of American industry, the need for better technology in specialized areas, and the deployment of technical manpower, and to provide appropriate guidance. Conversion. Even more efficient deployment of technical manpower is possible by economic conversion, Sen. Kennedy says. Conversion has become almost a household word, and every week seems to bring new programs. The National Science Foundation, for example, last week initiated a $300,000 series of pilot projects that will place displaced aerospace and defense engineers and scientists in state and local decision-making positions to work on such problems as housing and mass transportation. Sen. Kennedy, meanwhile, supports the idea of a new, single-minded federal program—a civilian NASA—to spearhead the development of new American cities in the 1970's and beyond. The program would sponsor the research and engineering needed for total metropolitan systems. Sen. Kennedy says he plans to introduce legislation directing NSF to study the practicality of such a program. Chance. Councils and conversion, however, are only partial solutions to engineering employment problems, Ralf Hotchkiss says; part of the problem also lies with the public image of engineers. He sees the current crisis in engineering employment as a second chance for engineers to regain the confidence of the public by helping to improve existing conditions. The 23year-old engineer directs the Center for Concerned Engineering, a new Washington, D.C.-based nonprofit organization under the guidance of Ralph Nader. The center seeks new solutions to critical safety problems, and is attempting to ensure that en-
Engineers may be in worse shape by 1980, NSF says The NSPE discussion about today's apparent surplus of engineers coincided, albeit accidentally, with the release of a new National Science Foundation report: "1969 and 1980 Science and Engineering Doctorate Supply and Utilization." The report updates a somewhat controversial study originally released late in 1969. In the new report, NSF's Charles E. Falk, director of the division of science resources and policy studies, modifies an earlier statement that present and projected trends in Ph.D. production are not likely to produce an oversupply of science and engineering doctorates in 1980. The new study projects a greater likelihood of a future surplus. NSF now predicts that 315,000 to 336,000 Ph.D. engineers and scientists will be available in 1980 for 270,000 to 297,000 positions. In 1969, NSF projected that 350,000 such professionals would be available for 275,000 to 390,000 positions. Furor. The earlier report created a small furor, especially in the academic community. Many educators and manpower observers faulted Dr. Falk and NSF for suggesting that there would not be an oversupply of Ph.D.'s in 1980. Dr. Falk explained that substantial numbers of Ph.D.'s would probably be engaged in activities markedly different from those of present professionals. NSF was also accused of engaging in some wishful thinking in its 1969 study. The 1969 basic projections did, in fact, forecast an oversupply of Ph.D.'s—a supply of 350,000 professionals and a demand of 275,000 to 300,000 positions. These projections were then modified to reflect, among other factors, a recovery of national R&D funding growth. Even in 1969, however, many people believed that the federal funding of R&D was leveling off, and there was already an apparent surplus of Ph.D.'s in many fields. In the foreward to the new report, Dr. Falk defends the earlier projections, pointing out that the first study was initiated when the U.S. was at the begin-
ning of a period of readjustment of manpower relationships, student interests, and financial support. But, he admits, the earlier projections were based on trends of graduate enrollments since 1958 that included a period of rapid increases in the proportion of the studentage population pursuing all phases of higher education. The new study is based on 1964-69 trends, with adjustments made to reflect recent deviations. Revisions. Demand projections in the new report are also based on revisions of the high R&D funding estimate (4.4% of the gross national product in 1980) upon which the earlier projections were based. The new report assumes that R&D funding will be between 2.7% and 3.0% of GNP. The major findings of the report indicate that the most serious potential imbalance in doctorate supply and demand is in engineering, where supply will exceed demand by more than 40% in 1980. In contrast, NSF projects a balance in 1980 supply and demand for the physical sciences. The report cautions that each of the broad areas of science and engineering includes a number of specific fields and disciplines that may differ markedly in their supply/demand relationships. Reexamination. The report also suggests that substantial numbers of new professionals will be engaged in activities much different from those of most present professionals. NSF thus recommends that the recent re-examination of university graduate programs be continued to assure that universities will be responsive to future needs. The study also implies the need to re-examine graduate science training in terms of the numbers of doctorates awarded—especially those awarded in engineering and the social sciences, where the projected oversupply is greatest. Finally, NSF recognizes that many factors enter into supply/demand projections and that these factors are rapidly changing. Thus, NSF plans to continue its studies to prepare updated projections.
NSF foresees a 14.7% surplus of Ph.D. scientists in 1980 Physical sciences Life sciences Mathematics Social sciences Engineering Total
Supply*
Demand11
Surplus
Surplus*
82,250 78,650 24,350 84,300 55,650
81,850 72,300 21,550 68,250 39,550
400 6,350 2,800 16,050 16,100
0.5% 8.8 13.0 23.5 40.7
325,200
283,500
41,700
14.7%
a Average of high and low projections for Ph.D. supply and demand in 1980. Source: National Science Foundation
b Per cent.
gineers with ideas crucial to public safety are properly received by industry. (Mr. Hotchkiss is coauthor of "What to Do with Your Bad Car: An Action Manual for Lemon Owners.") If one accepts both the forecast that the present oversupply of engineers will not abate in this decade and the premise that engineers are not likely to be employed in large numbers in traditional jobs (see box), new educational and retraining programs are necessities if even more massive unemployment is to be avoided. Program. One example of such programs is a new curriculum in engineering and public affairs that begins this fall at Carnegie-Mellon University. The effects of such new programs, however, will not be felt for at least five years. And although a variety of retraining programs aimed at converting engineers and their talents to changing national priorities are already under way—the new NSF program and those within the Department of Labor, to name a few—many at the conference questioned the adequacy and efficacy of retraining. One question frequently asked at the meeting was how transferable are engineering skills from one industry to another. Transferability, claims Nathaniel Robbins of Honeywell, Inc., depends on a similarity of experience, an applicability of academic background, a familiarity with procedures, and a knowledge of markets and customers. But most important is the adaptability and willingness of engineers to shift gears. Thus, retraining programs should place more emphasis on motivation, he says. Plea. Mr. Robbins also voiced the now familiar plea that aerospace industries use their engineers and scientists to solve environmental problems. This proposal was rebutted by Sandy Hale of the Environmental Protection Agency: "In terms of diversifying into new or present markets, the aerospace companies face a lot of competition from existing industries." Mr. Hale also points out that it has yet to be proved whether retraining is the best way to use the talents of aerospace and defense engineers and scientists. Moreover, he advises against wholesale retraining of technical manpower for fields that may be popular at the moment. "We really don't know how many of the people in pilot retraining programs will find jobs in the environmental area after retraining," he concludes. "We're still in the early stages of projecting markets for these fields." JUNE 28, 1971 C&EN
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