Policy Analysis pubs.acs.org/est
Environmental and Health Benefits from Designating the Marmara Sea and the Turkish Straits as an Emission Control Area (ECA) M. Viana,*,† N. Fann,‡ A. Tobías,† X. Querol,† D. Rojas-Rueda,§ A. Plaza,∥ G. Aynos,⊥ J. A. Conde,# L. Fernández,# and C. Fernández¶ †
Institute of Environmental Assessment and Water Research (IDÆA-CSIC), 08034 Barcelona, Spain Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, DC 20004, United States § Centre for Research in Environmental Epidemiology (CREAL), E-08003 Barcelona, Spain ∥ School of Physics, 28049 Madrid, Spain ⊥ General Directorate for Safety, Pollution and Maritime Inspection, 28071 Madrid, Spain # General Directorate for Maritime Affaires, 38180 Santa Cruz de Tenerife, Spain ¶ FIIAPP, 28040 Madrid, Spain ‡
S Supporting Information *
ABSTRACT: Ship emissions degrade air quality and affect human health, and are increasingly becoming a matter of concern. Sulfur emission control areas (ECA), specific coastal regions where only low-sulfur fuels may be consumed by ocean-going ships, have proven to be useful tools to reduce ship-sourced air pollution along the North American, Canadian, and European North and Baltic Sea coastlines. The present work assesses the environmental and health benefits which would derive from designating an ECA in the Marmara Sea and the Turkish Straits (50 000 ships/year; 23 million inhabitants). Results show evidence that implementing an ECA would be technically viable and that it would reduce ship-sourced PM10 and PM2.5 ambient concentrations in Istanbul by 67%, and SO2 by 90%. The reduction of the air pollution burden on health was quantified as 210 hospital admissions from exposure to PM10, 290 hospital admissions from exposure to SO2, and up to 30 premature deaths annually due to ECA emission controls. Consequently, the designation of an ECA in the Marmara Sea and the Turkish Straits is evaluated as a positive, technically viable and real-world measure to reduce air pollution from ships in Turkey.
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INTRODUCTION Air pollution from ships is an issue of global concern,1−3 and strategies are needed to mitigate its impacts. Shipping emissions pose adverse climate-related impacts on the global-scale by emitting black carbon emissions, an important short-lived climate forcer,4 but also on regional and local-scales by degrading air quality in urban areas.3 Because maritime traffic is increasing due to the globalization of manufacturing processes,5 the best strategies to reduce impacts from shipping emissions are technological. These include the use of low sulfur-content fuels (e.g., EU Directive 2005/33/EC), the introduction of shore side electricity (e.g., in Sweden, The Netherlands or Germany), or the designation of emission control areas (ECAs). The Annex VI of MARPOL (international convention covering prevention of pollution of the marine environment by ships) establishes that an ECA designation is intended to prevent and reduce the adverse impacts on human health in areas that can demonstrate a need to prevent, reduce, and control emissions of nitrogen and sulfur oxides (NOx, SOx), and particulate matter (PM). ECAs, designated by the International Maritime Organization (IMO), © 2015 American Chemical Society
may refer to reduced sulfur, (PM) or nitrogen emissions. Existing ECAs are established in (a) Baltic Sea (SOx), (b) North Sea (SOx), (c) North American area (SOx, NOx, and PM), and (d) United States Caribbean Sea (SOx, NOx, and PM)6 Within Europe, the main ship traffic lanes and harbors are Rotterdam (34 000 deep sea ships and 133 000 inland waterway vessels per year; www.portofrotterdam.com), the Gibraltar Strait (71 000 ships/year; www.gibraltarport.com), and the Istanbul and Canakkale Straits in the Marmara Sea (Turkey, 50.000 ships/year; www.bosphorusstrait.com). Of these harbors and regions, the most densely populated is the Marmara Sea including the Turkish Straits, with a total population of 23 million inhabitants (14 million concentrated in Istanbul7). Consequently, designating an ECA in the Marmara region would seem advisible to tackle the adverse Received: Revised: Accepted: Published: 3304
October 15, 2014 February 17, 2015 February 20, 2015 February 20, 2015 DOI: 10.1021/es5049946 Environ. Sci. Technol. 2015, 49, 3304−3313
Policy Analysis
Environmental Science & Technology
Figure 1. Mean annual SO2 concentrations sourcing from shipping emissions in the East domain, before and after the potential implementation of ECA controls in the Marmara Sea and based on data for the year 2013. Units: μg/m3. Top: SO2 concentrations before implementing ECA emission controls. Bottom: SO2 concentrations after implementing ECA emission controls.
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METHODOLOGY We followed a linked approach to estimating health impacts, where we (1) perform dispersion modeling to characterize the air pollution attributable to shipping emissions and (2) incorporate these modeled concentrations into a health impact analysis to quantify the health burden due to these emissions. Below we outline each of these steps in detail. Study Region. The Marmara Sea is the inland sea connecting the Black Sea to the Aegean Sea. The Bosphorus strait (also known as Istanbul Strait) connects it to the Black Sea and the Dardanelles strait (also known as Canakkale Strait) to the Aegean (Figure 1). It covers an extension of 22 000 km2 (280 km × 80 km18). The total population in the region in the year 2013 was about 24 million inhabitants, distributed across 11 provinces.7 The majority of this population (61%, or about 14 million inhabitants) is concentrated in Istanbul city. Dispersion Model. Dispersion modeling of ship emissions was carried out using the model CALPUFF. CALPUFF is a multilayer, multispecies nonsteady-state puff dispersion model that simulates the effects of time and space varying meteorological conditions on pollutant transport.19 It is a Lagrangian model, especially reliable when modeling rough and
environmental and health outcomes from ship-sourced air pollution. This would reduce the air pollution burden on human health of a large population, on climate (given that BC emissions would be reduced in a region with high solar radiation4), and on cultural heritage sites (mainly in Istanbul). The present work aims to quantify the environmental and health benefits which would derive from designating a sulfur ECA in the Marmara Sea by the year 2020, implying the use of low-sulfur content fuels (
