Expert Systems for Environmental Applications - ACS Publications

Chapter 1

Overview of Environmental Expert Systems Judith M. Hushon

Downloaded by UNIV COLLEGE LONDON on December 31, 2017 | http://pubs.acs.org Publication Date: July 5, 1990 | doi: 10.1021/bk-1990-0431.ch001

Roy F. Weston, Inc., 955 L'Enfant Plaza, S.W., Sixth Floor, Washington, DC 20024

While expert systems technology has now existed for more than 20 years, environmental expert systems are only about five years old. Nonetheless, the development has been rapid with over 68 systems i n existence today. All of the early systems and the bulk of the current systems are PC-based, but as the limitations of the delivery capability are reached, more and more systems are moving toward larger delivery environments such as minicomputers and dedicated workstations. Development i s occurring both using A r t i f i c i a l Intelligence languages such as Prolog and LISP as well as expert system "shells." The problems being tackled are also expanding. Whereas a number of the early systems took on very limited areas of expertise, such as the operation of a sewage treatment plant, the systems are now moving out to tackle siting problems and recommendation of complex remedial technology combinations. What i s even more important i s that expert systems are becoming an accepted vehicle for offering advice for solving environmental problems. Over the next few years more complex systems w i l l be developed that share databases and tackle multiple related environmental problems. E x p e r t System development began i n t h e l a t e 1960s, b u t t h e f i r s t systems were n o t completed and demonstrated u n t i l t h e e a r l y 1970s. These systems g e n e r a l l y sought t o s o l v e problems i n n a r r o w l y d e f i n e d areas t h a t were w e l l u n d e r s t o o d by a few e x p e r t s . The e a r l i e s t and most p u b l i s h e d system i s MYCIN t h a t was d e v e l o p e d a t S t a n f o r d U n i v e r s i t y t o h e l p diagnose and i d e n t i f y drug t h e r a p i e s f o r t r e a t i n g pulmonary b a c t e r i a l i n f e c t i o n s . ( 1 ) A n o t h e r e a r l y system was PROSPECTOR developed by SRI t o a s s i s t f i e l d g e o l o g i s t s i n i d e n t i f y i n g p r o m i s i n g geographies f o r p r e l i m i n a r y d r i l l i n g f o r m i n e r a l d e p o s i t s . (2) Other i m p o r t a n t systems i n c l u d e d XCON d e v e l o p e d by D i g i t a l Equipment C o r p o r a t i o n t o f a c i l i t a t e computer system c o n f i g u r a t i o n (3) 0097-6156/90/0431-0001$07.00/0 © 1990 American Chemical Society

Hushon; Expert Systems for Environmental Applications ACS Symposium Series; American Chemical Society: Washington, DC, 1990.


2

EXPERT SYSTEMS FOR ENVIRONMENTAL APPLICATIONS and D e l t a / C a t s - 1 developed by G e n e r a l E l e c t r i c and used t o h e l p diagnose f a u l t s i n d i e s e l - e l e c t r i c l o c o m o t i v e s . ( 4 ) In 1987, D a v i d Waterman p u b l i s h e d a book l i s t i n g over 181 systems i n the f i e l d s l i s t e d i n Table 1.(5) The e n v i r o n m e n t a l areas are n o t a b l y m i s s i n g w i t h the p o s s i b l e e x c e p t i o n o f meteorology; and weather models had been under development f o r y e a r s . There are p r o b a b l y two reasons f o r the r e l a t i v e l y slow emergence o f e x p e r t systems i n the e n v i r o n m e n t a l a r e a . The f i r s t i s t h a t the s c i e n c e f o r d e a l i n g w i t h e n v i r o n m e n t a l problems i s not w e l l u n d e r s t o o d and t h e r e are few a b s o l u t e l y agreed upon methods. This i s i n contrast to medicine where a m e d i c a l t e x t b o o k i s c o n s i d e r e d the " B i b l e " and even the e x p e r t s f o l l o w i t s a d v i c e e x a c t l y . The second r e a s o n i s t h a t few e n v i r o n m e n t a l problems can be s o l v e d by a s i n g l e e x p e r t . There i s o f t e n a need t o i n v o l v e e n v i r o n m e n t a l , c i v i l , and c h e m i c a l e n g i n e e r s , e n v i r o n m e n t a l c h e m i s t s , and t o x i c o l o g i s t s t o i d e n t i f y an o p t i m a l problem s o l u t i o n . The problems i n t r y i n g t o i n c o r p o r a t e the knowledge of these m u l t i p l e e x p e r t s i n t o a system are s i g n i f i c a n t . N e v e r t h e l e s s , e n v i r o n m e n t a l e x p e r t systems have begun t o appear. In February o f 1987, Hushon i d e n t i f i e d 21 e n v i r o n m e n t a l expert systems.(6) By December o f t h a t y e a r , the number had r i s e n t o 51.(7) A c u r r e n t count p u t s the number o f systems a t about 69 A graph showing t h i s growth i s shown i n F i g u r e 1; by 1990, t h e r e w i l l be c l o s e t o 80 systems. Development i s o c c u r r i n g i n Europe and Canada as w e l l as the U.S. A r e c e n t r e v i e w a r t i c l e by Page d e t a i l s development o f 21 systems, m o s t l y i n Canada and West Germany.(8) S e v e r a l o t h e r r e v i e w a r t i c l e s have r e c e n t l y appeared (9, 10, 1 1 ) . D e f i n i t i o n of E x p e r t Systems E x p e r t systems are g e n e r a l l y c o n s i d e r e d t o be a branch o f a r t i f i c i a l i n t e l l i g e n c e ; w i t h t h e i r knowledge base, these systems can f u n c t i o n as " e x p e r t s " t o make h i g h e r - l e v e l d e c i s i o n s based on v a r y i n g p e r f o r mance l e v e l s . E x p e r t systems have been d e f i n e d as "man and machine systems w i t h s p e c i a l i z e d p r o b l e m - s o l v i n g e x p e r t i s e ; " each r e l i e s on a database o f knowledge about a p a r t i c u l a r s u b j e c t a r e a , an under s t a n d i n g o f the problems a d d r e s s e d w i t h i n t h a t s u b j e c t a r e a , and s k i l l at s o l v i n g these problems. E x p e r t systems are d i s t i n g u i s h e d from t r a d i t i o n a l d a t a p r o c e s s i n g systems i n s e v e r a l ways: ο

they p e r f o r m d i f f i c u l t t a s k s a t e x p e r t performance l e v e l s .

ο

they emphasize problem s o l v i n g

ο

they employ a c e r t a i n amount of s e l f knowledge t o e v a l u a t e t h e i r own i n f e r e n c e mechanisms and j u s t i f y t h e i r con clusions .

ο

they can d e a l w i t h b o t h s y m b o l i c and numeric

ο

they p r o v i d e f o r the u n c e r t a i n data s e t s .

strategies.

c o n s i d e r a t i o n of

logic.

incomplete


or


1.

HUSHON

Overview of Environmental Expert Systems

ο

they p r o v i d e j u s t i f i c a t i o n s f o r t h e i r

ο

they a l s o f o l l o w t h e human c o n s u l t a t i o n paradigm.

3

conclusions,

E x p e r t systems can v a r y i n t h e type o f l o g i c t h a t they use i n s o l v i n g t h e problems. Two predominate approaches a r e known as f o r w a r d and backward c h a i n i n g . I f t h e s e a r c h f o r a s o l u t i o n i s s t a r t e d from a s e t o f c o n d i t i o n s o r b a s i c i d e a s and moves toward some c o n c l u s i o n , t h i s i s c a l l e d f o r w a r d c h a i n i n g . I n f o r w a r d c h a i n i n g , one s t a r t s w i t h known data and i n f e r s c o n c l u s i o n s t o r e a c h an u l t i m a t e g o a l . The l o g i c works by t a k i n g as g i v e n t h e I F p a r t o f an IF...THEN r u l e and i n f e r r i n g t h a t t h e THEN p a r t s a r e t r u e . I t t h e n l o o k s f o r r u l e s i n w h i c h t h e THEN c o n d i t i o n o f t h e f i r s t r u l e i s an I F c o n d i t i o n i n a n o t h e r r u l e ; s e v e r a l l e v e l s o f i n f e r e n c e may be i n v o l v e d . I t s h o u l d be p o i n t e d o u t t h a t f o r w a r d c h a i n i n g c a n be time consuming and c a n lead to multiple conclusions. Backward c h a i n i n g a t t e m p t s t o determine i f a s t a t e d g o a l r u l e i s s a t i s f i e d by s t a r t i n g w i t h t h e THEN c l a u s e s and b a c k i n g up t o t h e I F c l a u s e s o f t h e r u l e t o see i f they a r e f u l f i l l e d and so on u n t i l a q u e s t i o n i s asked o r a p r e v i o u s l y s t o r e d r e s u l t i s found. These d i f f e r e n c e s must be c o n s i d e r e d i n c h o o s i n g an approach f o r d e v e l o p i n g a new e x p e r t system and i n s e l e c t i n g an e x p e r t system development t o o l . Forward c h a i n i n g i s p r e f e r r e d f o r i d e n t i f y i n g o p t i o n s w h i l e backward c h a i n i n g i s p r e f e r r e d f o r i d e n t i f y i n g whether s p e c i f i c options are v i a b l e . C o n s t r u c t i o n o f an E x p e r t

System

The stages i n c o n s t r u c t i o n o f an e x p e r t system have been d e f i n e d a s : system d e s i g n , system development, f o r m a l e v a l u a t i o n o f performance, f o r m a l e v a l u a t i o n o f a c c e p t a n c e , extended use i n a p r o t o t y p e e n v i r o n ment, development o f maintenance p l a n s , and system r e l e a s e . ( 1 2 ) I t i s t h e j o b o f t h e knowledge e n g i n e e r t o query t h e e x p e r t s t o i d e n t i f y what i n f o r m a t i o n they employ t o s o l v e t h e problems b e i n g modeled and how they combine t h i s i n f o r m a t i o n t o r e a c h a c o n c l u s i o n . I t i s then h i s / h e r j o b t o i n c o r p o r a t e t h i s knowledge i n t o t h e e x p e r t system by w r i t i n g t h e n e c e s s a r y s o f t w a r e . The system may e i t h e r c o n t a i n o r must know how t o a c c e s s t h e databases o f i n f o r m a t i o n i t requires. I n a d d i t i o n , t h e knowledge base c o n s i s t s o f a s e t o f IF...THEN r u l e s o r o t h e r knowledge r e p r e s e n t a t i o n methods such as frames [Knowledge r e p r e s e n t a t i o n method t h a t a s s o c i a t e s f e a t u r e s w i t h nodes r e p r e s e n t i n g c o n c e p t s o r o b j e c t s . The f e a t u r e s a r e d e s c r i b e d i n terms o f a t t r i b u t e s and/or o b j e c t s . A l l members o f a common frame have a s i m i l a r s e t o f a t t r i b u t e s . ] o r semantic n e t s [Knowledge r e p r e s e n t a t i o n method c o n s i s t i n g o f a network o f nodes s t a n d i n g f o r concepts o f o b j e c t s connected by a r c s d e s c r i b i n g t h e r e l a t i o n s between nodes.] t h a t d e s c r i b e how t h e e x p e r t combines t h e v a r i o u s d e c i s i o n making parameters. The i n f e r e n c e engine i s t h e s o f t w a r e t h a t p r o v i d e s the mechanism f o r i n t e r p r e t i n g t h e commands and a c c e s s i n g t h e knowledge base t o s o l v e t h e problem.



4

EXPERT SYSTEMS FOR ENVIRONMENTAL APPLICATIONS

10 1

OH

•

1986

·

•

1987

!

•

•

1

1988

.

.

1989

1

r-

1990

Figure 1. Growth of expert systems.

Years By Quarters

0

— — —

Microcomputer Minicomputer Mainframe

Figure 2. Environmental expert systems hardware.


1.

HUSHON


Problems t h a t Lend Themselves t o E x p e r t System S o l u t i o n s


I n i d e n t i f y i n g problems t h a t l e n d themselves t o s o l u t i o n u s i n g e x p e r t systems, i t i s o f t e n u s e f u l t o t r y t o determine whether t h e following c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s apply: ο

S i t u a t i o n s occur o f t e n

ο

S i t u a t i o n s a r e complex

ο

Knowledge o f e x p e r t s r e q u i r e d ( h i g h e r r e a s o n i n g )

ο

Uncertainty involved

ο

S i t u a t i o n i s dynamic

ο

Need t o a c h i e v e c o n s i s t e n c y o f response.

E x p e r t Systems a r e i n c l u d e d i n a c l a s s o f systems known as knowledge-based systems and f u l l i m p l e m e n t a t i o n s may i n v o l v e i n c l u d i n g more t h a n one type o f system. Other knowledge-based system t o o l s i n c l u d e h y p e r t e x t , w h i c h p r o v i d e s u n d e r l y i n g l i n k s and i s i d e a l f o r p r o v i d i n g o c c a s i o n a l a c c e s s t o h e l p s c r e e n s , diagrams o r d a t a b a s e s , and n e u r a l n e t s w h i c h use o t h e r t y p e s o f l o g i c t o s o l v e problems ( i n essence, t h e system develops t h e r e l a t i o n s h i p s among t h e v a r i a b l e s and t h e n uses t h e s e r e l a t i o n s h i p s t o d e c i d e how b e s t t o handle new c a s e s ) . T y p i c a l d i s c i p l i n e s i n w h i c h e x p e r t systems have been a p p l i e d are shown i n Table 1.(5) Table I . A p p l i c a t i o n Areas f o r E x p e r t Systems Agriculture Chemistry

Manufacturing Mathematics

Computer Systems

Medicine

Electronics

Meteorology

Engineering

Military

Science

Geology

Physics

I n f o r m a t i o n Management

Process C o n t r o l

Law

Space

Technology

SOURCE: Reprinted with permission from ref. 5. Copyright 1986 Addison-Wesley Publishing Company, Inc. W i t h i n a g i v e n d i s c i p l i n e , c e r t a i n c a t e g o r i e s o f systems t e n d t o a r i s e sooner and o t h e r s l a t e r . F o r example, systems f o r d e s i g n and p l a n development a r i s e e a r l y w h i l e t r a i n i n g systems t e n d t o be l a t e r to develop.


5

S

EXPERT SYSTE Survey o f E n v i r o n m e n t a l E x p e r t Systems While i t i s p o s s i b l e t o group e n v i r o n m e n t a l e x p e r t systems under the t r a d i t i o n a l areas o f development shown i n Table I I , an e x p a n s i o n o f the c a t e g o r i e s o f system development was used t o b e t t e r r e f l e c t the e n v i r o n m e n t a l areas o f a p p l i c a t i o n . The 69 systems i d e n t i f i e d t o date are p r e s e n t e d i n Table I I I . This table provides a short d e s c r i p t i o n of each system and i n f o r m a t i o n on the s o f t w a r e and hardware e n v i r o n ment, an i n d i c a t i o n o f who d e v e l o p e d the system and where, and a c i t a t i o n i f the system has been d e s c r i b e d i n the open l i t e r a t u r e .


Table I I . T r a d i t i o n a l Areas o f E x p e r t System Development

Interpretation

Planning

Prediction

Diagnosis

Repair

Training

Design

Monitoring

Control

Debugging

SOURCE: Reprinted with permission from ref. 12. Copyright 1984 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.

The e a r l i e s t e n v i r o n m e n t a l e x p e r t systems were i n the areas o f d i a g n o s i s and p l a n n i n g f o r f a i r l y narrow a p p l i c a t i o n s . As development p r o g r e s s e d , t h e r e were more systems i n the i n t e r p r e t a t i o n a r e a and i n d e s i g n . These systems g e n e r a l l y r e q u i r e a b r o a d e r knowledge base and are more d e t a i l e d , so i t i s n o t s u r p r i s i n g t h a t they were s l o w e r t o develop. Examples o f these types o f systems i n c l u d e those f o r emergency response and those f o r r e m e d i a l a l t e r n a t i v e s e l e c t i o n . T r a i n i n g systems t e n d t o d e v e l o p l a t e r s t i l l , o f t e n i n the same areas as the e x p e r t d e c i s i o n systems; o n l y one e x p e r t system t r a i n i n g a i d has been i d e n t i f i e d , t h i s one i n the w a t e r r e s o u r c e s a r e a . Development

Environment

The development environment f o r e x p e r t systems i n c l u d e s b o t h hardware and s o f t w a r e . I n i t i a l l y , most o f the e x p e r t systems were developed on microcomputers. However, as shown i n F i g u r e 2, t h e r e i s a steady i n c r e a s e i n the number of minicomputer o r w o r k s t a t i o n based systems. T h i s i s due t o a v a r i e t y o f f a c t o r s , the most common o f w h i c h i s t h a t the PC systems run out o f computer "space" b e f o r e they can s o l v e a complex problem due t o the s i z e o f the code and o t h e r o p e r a t i n g requirements. The IBM c o m p a t i b l e PC-AT i s s t i l l the most common development p l a t f o r m because i t i s a v e r y w i d e l y d i s t r i b u t e d system and p r o v i d e s the b r o a d e s t u s e r base. However, the l i m i t o f 640K o f random access memory i s c a u s i n g programmers t o undertake i n g e n i o u s s o l u t i o n s t o f i t t h e i r code i n t o t h i s space. T h i s problem has l e d one major s o f t w a r e vendor t o develop a code t h a t can be developed on a minicomputer, but d e l i v e r e d i n a p o r t a b l e PC environment. (44) T h i s a l l o w s the d e v e l o p e r access t o the e x t r a



Selection of treatment/recycle facilities for wastes (in use)

2. TSDSYS

OPS5

PROLOG

Insight 2+

Cleanup technology selection for solvents and hydrocarbons (prototype)

Helps to characterize a waste site using the MITRE HRS for permeability and groundwater flow (prototype)

Computes a site hazard ranking based on key site parameters (prototype)

4. RPI Site Assessment System

5. GEOTOX*

6. Technology Screening System* Works as a front-end to CORA to screen remedial sites. Based on engineering, scientific considerations, waste type, etc. (prototype)

PC-Plus

DM

DM

SOFTWARE

3. Toxic Waste Advisor

Selection of Remedial Action Technology

Selection of analytical labs for environmental samples (in use)

FUNCTIONALITY/STATUS

1. LABSYS

Selection of Service Providers

SYSTEM NAME

Micro

Micro

Mini

Micro

Mini

Mini

HARDWARE

Table III. Survey of Environmental Expert Systems

11

15

14

13

CITATION

Continued on next page

J. Crenca/CH2M-Hill K. Biggs/EPA/OERR L. Rossman/EPA/RREL

G. Mikroudis/WESTON H. Fang/Lehigh Univ.

K. Law/RPI

J. Keenan/U. of PA

J. Hushon/WESTON P. Hawkins/EPA/ERD

J. Hushon/WESTON

DEVELOPER


Hushon; Expert Systems for Environmental Applications ACS Symposium Series; American Chemical Society: Washington, DC, 1990. R. Weidemann/Nuclear Research Center Karlsruhl/FRG H. Groh/Technical College Saarbrucken, FRG

Micro

Mini

Mini

ART

PROLOG C

IBM ES Shell Env.

System to aid in determining requirements that drive the selection of remedial alternatives for Superfund sites (planned).

Uses chemical data to evaluate hazards and to identify disposal alternatives (in use)

Identification, analysis, and evaluation of waste sites to provide assistance on remediation (prototype)

Used for identification, inventory, evaluation and monitoring of contaminated istes and remediation (prototype)

10. XUMA

11. XSAL

12. ALEXIS

Main IBM/370

H. Franzen/German Assn. for Plant Survey

N. Pandit/WESTON D. Greathouse/EPA/RREL

P. Ludvigsen/ERM

9. ARARS Screening

Micro

M.l

Estimates groundwater pollution from leached wastes (prototype)

N. Pandit/WESTON R. Cibulskis/EPA/REAC

DEVELOPER

8. DEMOTOX

Mini

HARDWARE

KEE

SOFTWARE

Helps select remedial technologies during RI phase of cleanup and suggests additional required input data for final selection in FS phase (prototype)


7. TSAR

SYSTEM NAME

Table III. Continued


19

18

17

CITATION

00


Uses inputs on local industries and the materials present to rank potential community hazards for CEPP (prototype)

Supports natural language query of database to identify analytical methods for particular waste site pollutants (prototype)

Helps estimate costs for cleanup of a waste site (in use).

16. Computerized System for Community Planning

17. Smart Methods Index*

18. CORA*

Insight 2+

PROLOG

Micro

Micro

Micro

PC-Plus Micro Knowledge-Pro

This closure evaluation system consists of three systems to aid in review of closure plans regarding vegetation cover, final cover, and leachate collection system (prototype).

15. CES

dBase III

Knowledge-Pro Micro

This health and safety plan generator will assist in preparation of health and safety plans for Superfund sites. It relies on activities, chemicals and quantities, (prototype)

14. HASP*

Mini

HARDWARE

OPS5

SOFTWARE

Uses inputs about a waste site to plan activities and generate draft workplan (in use)


13. Work Assignment/Work Plan Generator

Plan Generator

SYSTEM NAME


11

20

CITATION


K. Biggs/EPA/OERR J. Crenca/CH2M/Hill

R. Olivero/Lockheed D. Bottrell/EPA/EMSL

J. Bare/EPA/ESRL

D. Greathouse/EPA/RREL

J. Hushon/WESTON R. Turpin/EPA/REAC

J. Schmuller/CDM

DEVELOPER



This system will provide assistance to develop QA plans for Superfund sites (prototype)

21. IQAP*

Uses instrument and lab test results to facilitate the operation of an activated sludge wastewater treatment facility (prototype)

Diagnosis malfunctions in hazardous waste incinerators (prototype)

23. Activated Sludge Diagnosis

24. Waste Incineration

Problem Diagnosis

22. Hazardous Waste Facility Siting

Helps determine siting in environments near wetlands (prototype)

System to aid in review of claims by contractors for contract modification due to differing site conditions (planned)

20. Super Disc

Facility Siting

Uses HRS data to identify work required to cleanup a waste site in terms of cost and schedule (in use).


19. SCEES

SYSTEM NAME

M.l

M.l

Hypertext

Knowledge-Pro

NEXPERT

SOFTWARE


Micro

Micro

Micro

Micro

Micro

Micro

HARDWARE

Y.W. Huang/University of Houston

D.M. Johnston/University of Washington

V. Lambou/EPA/EMSL

N. Pandit/WESTON R. Cibulskis/EPA/REAC

L. Bennett/CDM D. Greathouse/EPA/RREL

J. Schmuller/CDM

DEVELOPER


22

21

10

CITATION

ο

ι

Ο

*1

3

Hushon; Expert Systems for Environmental Applications ACS Symposium Series; American Chemical Society: Washington, DC, 1990. KEE

PC-Plus

M.l

To assist waste water treatment facility operators to manage an activated sludge system (prototype)

Assists operators in assessing water quality and quantity; suggests required maintenance (prototype)

Assists operators to diagnose faults in conventional activated sludge treatment plant (development)

Problem diagnosis due to poor stability (prototype)

Diagnose problems in trickling filter systems and suggest remedies (prototype)

27. Activated Sludge Advisor*

28. Water Treatment Plant

29. Expert System for Diagnosis of Wastewater Treatment Plants

30. Anaerobic Digestion System

31. Sludge Cadet

KEE

Knowledge-Pro

ALEX Smalltalk/V

Expert system to diagnose performance limiting factors at publicly owned treatment works (prototype)

26. POTW Expert*

OPS5

SOFTWARE

System to control conditions required for destruction of hazardous wastes in a model incinerator (prototype)


25. Incineration Process Control*

SYSTEM NAME


Micro

Micro

Micro

Mini

Micro

Micro

Micro

HARDWARE

11

11

23

11

CITATION


C. Perman/Stanford Univ.

M. Barnett/Rice University

G.G. Patry/McMaster Univ.

S. Nix/Syracuse University

J. Schmuller/CDM

L. Berkman/Eastern Research Group

C. Subramanian/WESTON

DEVELOPER



Assesses environmental impact and implications of manufacturing processes to achieve waste reduction (in use)

36. Environmental Assessment System (EASY)

Rulemaster KES

Issues permits for onsite private sewage disposal systems (in use)

Assists EPA in issuing water permits for several industry sectors (in use)

38. Permit Writer's Assistant

KEE LISP

37. SEPIC

Permit Assistants

Advises on repairs and Maintenance of dikes

35. Dike Maintenance System

SAGE

Gespe

Provides remedial action for controlling tank leaks

34. Leaking Underground Storage Tank System

Micro

Micro

Micro

Micro

Micro

Knowledge-Pro Micro

System recommends sampling procedure, locations, numbers of samples and handling procedures for soil sampling for metals (prototype)

Micro

HARDWARE

33. Environmental Sampling Expert System (ESES)*

SOFTWARE PROLOG


32. Computer Aided Data Review Reviews Laboratory data on and Evaluation (CADRE)* volatile and semi-volatile organics and pesticides as part of data evaluation (in use)

SYSTEM NAME


C. Spooner/EPA/OWP

W.J. Hadden/Intelligent Advisors, Inc.

E. Venkataramani/ Merck & Co., Inc.

SDS/Rykwaterstaat Aviesdients

D. Marks/MIT



DEVELOPER


27

26

25

24

11

CITATION

Hushon; Expert Systems for Environmental Applications ACS Symposium Series; American Chemical Society: Washington, DC, 1990. KES

Helps user select input parameters for the HEC-1 groundwater model (in use)

Help users calibrate the EPA SWM model (in development)

Used to estimate initial input parameters for snow runoff model (prototype)

Helps select an appropriate flood estimation model (prototype)

42. INHEC-1

43. Storm Water Management Model Calibrator

44. EXSRM

45. Flood Advisor

ART

KES

M.l

Helps user determine input parameters for QUAL2E surface water quality simulation model (prototype)

41. QUAL2E Advisor

E.T. Engman

D. Fayegh

Mini

31

30

11

29

28

CITATION


J. Delleur/Purdue University

N. Pandit/WESTON

T. Barnwell/EPA/ERL

D. Greathouse/EPA/RREL

M. Halker/ F. Bubeck/Siemens GmbH.

DEVELOPER

Mini

Micro

Micro

Micro

Micro

PROLOG

Assists EPA to review waste analysis plans that are part of part Β permit applications. Screens for potential chemical incompatibilities (in use).

40. WAPRA

Model Front-Ends

Mini

LISP

HARDWARE

SOFTWARE

Used to help identify applicable regulations and documents related to permitting (in use)


39. Expert System for Assistance in Handling Environmental Regulations

SYSTEM NAME




Interface to regional acid rain model to determine water quality.

Selects appropriate water quality model for use in mixing

Calibrates input parameters to flow models.

47. RAISON

48. Mixing Zone Analyzer

49. Groundwater Flow Analyzer

53. FIESTA

52. REZES

51. MUMS

50. FLEX

PROLOG FORTRAN

EXSYS

Helps evaluate sludge test results (demonstration)

KES

PROLOG

PROLOG

M.l

FORTRAN C

SOFTWARE

Advisor to support reservoir management and operation (prototype)

Assists dam gate operators to control water flow from reservoir systems (in use)

Assists in selection of flexible membrane liners for landfills and surface impoundments (prototype)

Assists hydrogeologists to estimate subsurface distribution of chemicals discharged from underground sources (prototype)

46. Expert Rokey

Engineering Tools


SYSTEM NAME


Micro

Micro

Mini

Micro

Micro

Micro

Micro

Micro

HARDWARE

N. Pandit/WESTON

University of Manitoba

N. Pandit/WESTON

L. Rossman/EPA/RREL

A. Frank/Univ. of Maine

G. Jirka/Cornell University

D. Lam/Univ. of Guelph

Simco Groundwater Research Ltd.

DEVELOPER


35

34

11

11

33

32

CITATION


Risk assessment model that uses environmental and toxicological data to estimate exposure at redevelopment sites (in use)

Used to identify endangered species. Linked to optical disk (prototype)

57. Aid for Evaluating the Redevelopment of Industrial Sites

58. Expert System for Identifying Biological Species

59. FRES

Assists first responders to chemical emergencies by identifying hazards and suggesting response methods (prototype)

Used to evaluate/predict impacts at airports for Environmental Assessments (in use)

56. SCREENER

Emergency Response Tools

Helps assess human health posed by hazardous waste (prototype)

risks

Helps evaluate resource recovery options based on waste characteristics and costs, (in use)


55. Risk* Assistant*

Risk Assessment Tools

54. RESREC

SYSTEM NAME

KES

OPS5

Level 5

PROLOG C

C

VP-Expert

SOFTWARE


Micro

Main (VAX)

Micro

Micro

Micro

Micro

HARDWARE

39

38

37

36

CITATION


J. Hushon/WESTON

G. Hille/Univ. of Hamburg

B. Ibbotson/SENES Consult.

R.R. Everitt G.D. Sutherland/ESSA Ltd.

J. Young/Hampshire Res. Inst J. Segna/EPA/OHEE

N. Pandit/WESTON

DEVELOPER


in


System to rank DOD hazardous waste sites for cleanup based on their potential threats to health and ecology (in use).

System to assess environmental concerns i.e., potential human impacts from DOE site, (in use)

65. Defense Priority Model (DPM)*

66. Multi Media Environmental Pollutant Assessment System (MEPAS)*

Site Ranking

64. Fish Toxicity Prediction*

System uses chemical structure to predict aquatic toxicity (in use)

PROLOG LISP

Advice on transport of hazardous materials and fire-fighting (prototype)

63. FEUEX

Toxicity Prediction

PROLOG FORTRAN

Dispatches forest fire control equipment and crews based on incomplete data (in use)

62. Expert System Dispatch for Forest-Fire Control Resources

FORTRAN C

PROLOG

LISP

KES

Communityrightto know system combines inventory with emergency response assistance (prototype)

61. CORKES

ART

SOFTWARE

Emergency response support system to assist in chemical incidents (prototype)


60. HERMES

SYSTEM NAME


Micro

Micro

Micro

Mini

Mini

Micro

Mini

HARDWARE

J. Droppo/Battelle PNL

J. Hushon/WESTON A. Kaminski/USAF

J. Hickey/DOI/NFRC-GL

F. Belli/Technical College Bremerhaven

A. Gray/Canadian Forestry Service

J. Hushon/WESTON

E. Chang/Alberta Research Council

DEVELOPER


42

41

31 40

CITATION

Hushon; Expert Systems for Environmental Applications ACS Symposium Series; American Chemical Society: Washington, DC, 1990. Black Magic Basic

Provides assistance in interpreting Underground Storage Tank regulations (in use).

69. Smart reg (r)

*Detailed paper in this volume.

Rulemaster

EXSYS

SOFTWARE

System to help identify appropriate waste regulations (development)

Tutors students in use and calibration of a series of water models (in use).


68. Expert System for Hazardous Waste Regulations

Regulatory Evaluation

67. Water Resources Lab Aid

Teaching Systems

SYSTEM NAME

Tablelll Continued

Micro

Micro

Micro

HARDWARE

M.Stunder/GEOMET

P.A. Barrow/Univ. of Alberta

R. Carlson/Univ. of Alaska

DEVELOPER


43

11

CITATION


18


t o o l s and c o m p i l i n g space a f f o r d e d by the w o r k s t a t i o n , w h i l e making i t p o s s i b l e t o d i s t r i b u t e the system t o end u s e r s w i t h l e s s p o w e r f u l hardware. Software comprises the o t h e r major component o f the development environment. System d e v e l o p e r s have used two r o u t e s - s h e l l s and languages. S h e l l s a r e computer languages d e v e l o p e d t o f a c i l i t a t e the development o f e x p e r t systems. They a l l o w the u s e r t o w r i t e programs i n E n g l i s h - l i k e grammars and p r o v i d e f u n c t i o n a l i t y f o r s c r e e n management, c a l l i n g programs, computing u n c e r t a i n t y , and the problem solution strategy. They e x a c t a p r i c e f o r t h i s f u n c t i o n a l i t y , however. They remove a number o f d e s i g n o p t i o n s from the d e v e l o p e r and f o r c e e x p e r t system development w i t h i n t h e i r r i g i d l y d e f i n e d environments; they a l s o run more s l o w l y due t o the e x t r a t r a n s l a t i o n s t e p . S h e l l s are p a r t i c u l a r l y u s e f u l f o r p r o t o t y p i n g a system t o see i f the problem can be s o l v e d u s i n g e x p e r t systems t e c h n o l o g y . The code can be r e w r i t t e n l a t e r i f the concept can be p r o v e n . PC s h e l l s tend t o be much more r e s t r i c t i v e t h a n the s h e l l s on the w o r k s t a t i o n s . Table IV shows the most commonly used s h e l l s f o r e n v i r o n m e n t a l e x p e r t system development, and the number o f systems d e v e l o p e d i n each. The a l t e r n a t i v e t o u s i n g s h e l l s i s t o d e v e l o p the e x p e r t system d i r e c t l y i n a h i g h l e v e l computer language. T h i s may be e i t h e r an A r t i f i c i a l I n t e l l i g e n c e (AI) language such as P r o l o g o r LISP o r a s t a n d a r d language such as C o r FORTRAN. I n f a c t , most e x p e r t systems s h e l l s are b u i l t on top o f t h e s e languages. Table V shows the languages t o develop e n v i r o n m e n t a l e x p e r t systems. I f a system used more t h a n one language, t h i s was n o t e d i n Table I I I and i t i s i n c l u d e d t w i c e h e r e , once f o r each language. A n o t h e r advantage of d e v e l o p i n g systems d i r e c t l y i n languages i s t h a t the code can be c o m p i l e d and d i s t r i b u t e d , p r o t e c t i n g the source code. I t i s a l s o an advantage t o be a b l e t o be a b l e t o d i s t r i b u t e the c o m p i l e d code d i r e c t l y and not have t o worry about the u s e r ' s need t o purchase "run time s o f t w a r e " w h i c h i s r e q u i r e d t o make many o f the e x p e r t system s h e l l s u s e f u l . Some s h e l l s o f t w a r e vendors are moving toward c h a r g i n g h i g h e r p r i c e s f o r the development code and p r o v i d i n g f r e e run time code and o t h e r s a r e p r o v i d i n g i n e x p e n s i v e l i c e n s e s f o r run time code t h a t r e q u i r e o n l y a one time p u r c h a s e . L e g a l I s s u e s A s s o c i a t e d w i t h E x p e r t Systems The d e v e l o p e r s o f e x p e r t systems are concerned about the whole i s s u e o f l i a b i l i t y . A c c o r d i n g t o the B r o o k i n g s I n s t i t u t i o n , the number o f p r o d u c t l i a b i l i t y l a w s u i t s has i n c r e a s e d e i g h t f o l d from 1974 t o 1986 when 13,595 such cases were filed.(4Λ) However, i n the e x p e r t systems a r e a , the f i r s t s u i t has n o t y e t been f i l e d . Some system d e v e l o p e r s are a t t e m p t i n g t o l i m i t t h e i r r e s p o n s i b i l i t y by i n c l u d i n g d i s c l a i m e r s , but l a w y e r s say t h e s e o f f e r l i t t l e r e f u g e because buyers r a r e l y r e t u r n l i c e n s e agreement c a r d s . Lawyers have suggested t h a t systems w h i c h l e a v e the f i n a l d e c i s i o n up t o the u s e r w i l l have reduced l i a b i l i t y . I t i s a l s o l i k e l y t o depend upon whether t h e r e i s a "bug" i n the s o f t w a r e ; no s o f t w a r e company has y e t l o s t a l a w s u i t brought o v e r a bug though t h e r e have been s e v e r a l out o f c o u r t s e t t l e m e n t s . One f i n a l c l a i m used by d e v e l o p e r s i s t h a t e x p e r t systems r e p r e s e n t an inexact science.


1.

HUSHON

Overview of Enviwnmental Expert Systems

Table I V .

E x p e r t System S h e l l s

Shell


Minicomputer/Workstation

Number

Shells

KEE

4

ART

3

IBM E x p e r t System S h e l l

1

Microcomputer S h e l l s M.l

6

KES

6

Knowledge-Pro

5

0PS5

4

PC-Plus

3

I n s i g h t 2+

2

Exsys

2

Rulemaster

2

Level 5

1

Sage

1

Hypertext

1

Nexpert

1

Gespe

1

ALEX

1

B l a c k Magic

1


19

20


Table V.

Languages Used t o Develop E n v i r o n m e n t a l E x p e r t Systems

Language

Percent

12

39

C

7

23

FORTRAN

4

13

LISP

3

9

DM

2

6

Smalltalk/V

1

3

Basic

1

3

dBase I I I

1

3

Prolog


Number

There a r e a l s o e f f o r t s underway t h a t a r e f o c u s e d on r e d u c i n g t h e t o t a l l i a b i l i t y t o s o f t w a r e d e v e l o p e r s by a v o i d i n g e x c e s s i v e awards and i n t r o d u c i n g a n o - f a u l t c l a i m s system w h i c h may be o f f u t u r e benefit.(45) These concerns have slowed p r i v a t e systems development and have l e d u n i v e r s i t i e s t o examine t h e i r p o t e n t i a l l i a b i l i t y . As a r e s u l t , many a r e c o n t e n t w i t h o n l y d e v e l o p i n g p r o t o t y p e s w h i c h never become p r o d u c t i o n systems. Another r e s u l t i s t h a t much o f t h e e x i s t i n g development has had government c o o p e r a t i o n i n an attempt t o l i m i t l i a b i l i t y by the p r i v a t e d e v e l o p e r . F u t u r e Trends Acceptance o f e x p e r t systems by t h e e n v i r o n m e n t a l community i s i n c r e a s i n g w h i c h s u p p o r t s t h e v i e w t h a t these t y p e s o f systems a r e here t o s t a y and w i l l p l a y an i n c r e a s i n g l y i m p o r t a n t r o l e as t h e demand f o r smarter systems grows. While the i n i t i a l l y developed systems t a c k l e d s m a l l and w e l l u n d e r s t o o d problems, t h e r e i s a t r e n d toward t r y i n g t o s o l v e more complex problems i n areas where t h e r e i s a h i g h e r degree o f u n c e r t a i n t y . I n t h e s e a r e a s , e x p e r t systems a r e b e i n g used t o p r o v i d e "gut r e a c t i o n s " t o problem s o l u t i o n s j u s t as we ask e x p e r t s t o do. These systems w i l l a l s o be used i n c r e a s i n g l y t o deal w i t h incomplete data s e t s . There i s a l r e a d y a t r e n d toward more complex systems w i t h l a r g e r databases. The databases may be l o c a t e d on the computer w i t h t h e e x p e r t system o r they may be r e m o t e l y a c c e s s e d and t h e r e q u i r e d d a t a downloaded by a s m a l l s u b r o u t i n e c a l l e d by t h e system. The more complex systems demand l a r g e r hardware t o f u n c t i o n m a x i m a l l y . The s t a n d a r d IBM c o m p a t i b l e PC-AT w i t h 640K o f RAM i s no l o n g e r s u f f i c i e n t l y l a r g e t o h a n d l e t h e complex a p p l i c a t i o n s b e i n g contemplated. T h i s means t h a t t h e more complex systems w i l l have t o



1.

HUSHON


21

be developed and used on l a r g e r machines w h i c h w i l l l i m i t t h e i r availability. T h i s i s perhaps the most c r i t i c a l developmental c r i t e r i o n a f f e c t i n g the f u t u r e o f e x p e r t systems a p p l i c a t i o n t o e n v i r o n m e n t a l proglems. Not s u r p r i s i n g l y , the i n i t i a l development o f e n v i r o n m e n t a l e x p e r t systems took p l a c e a t u n i v e r s i t i e s a c r o s s the c o u n t r y . While s i g n i f i c a n t development has c o n t i n u e d a t the u n i v e r s i t y l e v e l , t h e r e i s i n c r e a s i n g a c t i v i t y among p r i v a t e c o n s u l t i n g f i r m s t o develop p r o d u c t s , o f t e n w i t h government f u n d i n g . T h i s i s an i m p o r t a n t s t e p , f o r i t means t h a t systems are b e i n g employed t o s o l v e the problems f o r w h i c h they were developed. T h i s i n c r e a s e i n government f u n d i n g has a l s o brought w i t h i t a s t a n d a r d i z a t i o n o f the system development and e v a l u a t i o n methodology. The number o f e n v i r o n m e n t a l e x p e r t systems can be e x p e c t e d t o i n c r e a s e r a p i d l y f o r a t l e a s t s e v e r a l y e a r s s i n c e t h e r e a r e many problems f o r w h i c h e x p e r t systems can p r o v i d e s u p e r i o r s o l u t i o n s t o those a v a i l a b l e from t r a d i t i o n a l computer programs. And as the s o l u t i o n s become b e t t e r , the b u i l t i n knowledge o f the systems w i l l become i n c r e a s i n g l y t r a n s p a r e n t t o the u s e r .

References 1.

Shortliffe, Ε. H.; Buchanan, B.G.; Fiegenbaum, E. A. of the IEEE. Vol 67, 1979, pp. 1207-1224.

Proceedings

2.

Duda, R. O.; Gaschig, J. G.; Hart, P. E. In Expert Systems in the Micro-electronic Age, Mitchie, D., Ed.; Edinburgh University Press: Edinburgh, 1979, pp. 135-137.

3.

McDermott, J. A r t i f i c i a l Intelligence, No. 19, 1982, p. 29.

4.

A r t i f i c i a l Intelligence Report, Vol 1, No. 1, 1984, pp. 7-8.

5.

Waterman, D. A Guide to Expert Systems, Addison Wesley: Reading, MA, 1986.

6.

Hushon, J. M. Environmental Science and Technology, Vol 21, No. 9, 1987, pp. 838-841.

7.

Hushon, J. M.

8.

Page, B. Environmental Computing, 1989 (in press).

9.

Greathouse, D. In CRC Control, 1990 (in press).

AIChE paper.

C r i t i c a l Reviews i n Environmental

10. Ortolano, L.; Steinemann, A. C. Engineering, 1987, pp. 298-302.

Journal of Computing i n C i v i l

11. Rossman, L. M. In Expert Systems for C i v i l Engineers: Techno logy and Applications, Maher, M. L., Ed; 1987, pp. 117-118. 12. Yaghmai, N. S.; Maxin, J. A. Journal of the American Society for Information Science, September 1984, p. 297.


22

EXPERT SYSTEMS FOR

ENVIRONMENTAL APPLICATIONS

13. Keenan, J. Design Specifications-Descriptions of Toxic Waste Advisor (TWA) Expert System; University of Pennsylvania, internal report, 1986. 14. Law, K. H.; Zimmie, T. J.; Chapman, D. R. In Expert Systems in C i v i l Engineering; Kostem, C. N.; Maher, M. L., Eds.; American Society of Chemical Engineers: New York, 1986; pp. 159-173.


15. Mikroudis, G. K.; Fang, H. Y. In Proceedings, 1st International Symposium on Environmental Geotechnology; Lehigh University: Bethlehem, PA, April 1986; pp. 223-232. 16. Ludvigsen, P. J.; Sims, R. C.; Grenney, W. J. In Proceedings of ASCE Fourth Conference on Computing in C i v i l Engineering; American Society of Chemical Engineers: New York, October 1986; pp. 687-698. 17. Weidemann, R.; Geiger, W.; E i t e l , W. In Informatikanwendungen im Umweltbereich; Karlsruhe Symposium Proceedings, Volume 2; Jaeschke, Α.; Page, B., Eds.; Springer Verlag; 1988, pp. 116-126. 18. Groh, H.; Ruttler, R. In Informatikanwendungen im Umweltbereich; Hamburg Symposium Proceedings; Valk, R., Ed.; Springer Verlag; 1988. 19. Franzen, H.

In GI-Fachausschuss 4.6, No. 8; November 1988.

20. Paquette, J. S.; Woodson, L.; Bissex, D. A. In Proceedings, Superfund, '86; Hazardous Materials Control Research Institute: Rockville, MD, 1986; pp 208-212. 21. Johnston, D.M. In Proceedings, Computer Applications in Water Resources, American Society of Chemical Engineers: New York, 1985; pp. 601-606. 22. Huang, Y. W. In Expert Systems in C i v i l Engineering; Kostem, C. N.; Maher, M. L., Eds.; American Society of Chemical Engineers: New York, 1986; pp. 145-158. 23. Page, B. Proceedings, Envirosoft 88 - 2nd International Conference. Greece, Zanetti, P., Ed.; Springer Verlag, 1988; pp. 597-608. 24. CRC Systems, Inc.; CDM Federal Programs Corp. Proceedings of Workshop on Expert and Automated Systems in Hazardous Waste Management. Cincinnati, 1987. 25. Venkataramani, E.S.; House, M.J.; Bacher, S. "Implementation of an Expert System Based Environmental Assessment System (EASY);" paper presented at AIChE meeting. August, 1989. 26. Hadden, W. J., J r ; Hadden, S. G. In Proceedings, Expert Systems in Government Symposium; Karna, K. N., Ed.; MITRE Corp.: McLean, VA, 1985, pp. 558-566.


1.

HUSHON


23

27. Spooner, C. S. In Proceedings, Expert Systems in Government Symposium; Karna, Κ. Ν., Ed.; MITRE Corp.: McLean, VA, 1985, pp. 573-577. 28. Halker, M.; Bubeck, F. In Proceedings, 16th GI-Jahrestagung; Informatik-Fachberichte 127: Berlin, Heidelberg, New York, 1986, pp. 436-447.


29. Barnwell, T. O., J r . ; Brown, L. C.; Marek, W. "Development of a Prototype Expert System for the Enhanced Stream Water Quality Model QUAL2E;" internal report, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency: Athens, GA, 1986. 30. Engman, E. T.; Rango, Α.; Martinec, J. In Peoceedings, Water Forum '86; American Society of Chemical Engineers: New York, 1986; pp. 174-180. 31. Fayegh, D.; Russell, S. O. In Expert Systems i n C i v i l Engineer ing; Kostem, C. N.; Maher, M. L., Eds.; American Society of Chemical Engineers: New York, 1986; pp. 174-181. 32. Proceedings of Workshop at Annual General Meeting of Canadian Prairie and Northern Section of the Air and Waste Management Association; Edmonton, A i r and Waste Management Association, Ed., 1989. 33. Lam, D. C. L.; Fraser, A. S. In Proceedings, Envirosoft 88 -2nd International Conference, Greece, Zanetti, P., Ed.; Springer Verlag, 1988; pp. 67-80. 34. Rossman, L. Α.; Haxo, Η. E., J r . In Proceedings, Environmental Engineering Specialty Conference; American Society of Chemical Engineers: New York, 1985; pp. 583-590. 35. Environment Canada, The Application of A r t i f i c i a l Intelligence (Expert Systems) in Environment Canada; Proceedings of a Workshop; Ottawa, June 1988. 36. Everitt, R. R.; Sutherland, G. D. AI Applications in Natural Resource Management, Vol. 2, No. 4, 1988, pp. 55-56. 37. Ibbotson, B. G.; Powers, B. P. Proceedings of Workshop at Annual General Meeting of Canadian Prairie and Northern Section of the Air and Waste Management Association; Edmonton, A i r and Waste Management Association, Ed., 1989. 38. Hille, G. In Informatik im Umweltschutz Perspektiven, Munich-Vienna, 1986.

- Anwendungen und

39. Hushon, J. M. FRES presented at 190th National Meeting of ACS, NYC April 1986. 40. Chang, E.; Clark D. Sidebottom, G. In Proceedings, 5th Technical Seminar on Chemical Spills, Montreal, February 1988, pp. 323-335.


24


41. Gray, Α.; Stokoe, P. Knowledge-based or Expert Systems and Decision Support Tools for Environmental Assessment and Manage ment - Their Potential and Limitations, Federal Environmental Assessment Review Office, School for Resource and Environmental Studies, Dalhousie University: Halifax, Nova Scotia, June 1988. 42. B e l l i , F.; Bonin, H. In Informatikanwendungen im Umweltbereich; Hamburg Symposium Proceedings; Valk, R., Ed.; Springer Verlag; 1988.


43. Barrow, P. A. In Proceedings, SCS Simulations Conference, Orlando, April 1988, pp. 343-348. 44. Warner, E. High Technology Business, Vol 8, No. 10, 1988, pp. 32-36. 45. Ruby, D. PC Week, Vol 3, July 8, 1986, p. 49. RECEIVED April 27, 1990


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