€SmFEATURES
GREENHOUSE G AND GLO CH INTERNATIONA Humanity today is in an unprecedented position. In the span of a single generation, the Earth's lifesustaining environment is expected to change more rapidly than it has over any comparable period of history. Much of this change will be of our own making. Worldwide economic and technological activities are contributing to rapid and potentially stressful changes in our global environment in ways that we are only now beginning to understani These changes may profoundly ai fect generations to come. Much of the current concern about the fate of the global environment is related to the increased concentration of greenhouse gases and possible effects on the global climate. The chemical composition of the atmosphere, which is changing rapidly, is, to a large degree, determined by the release and uptake of a variety of trace gases by the biosphere (1-41. The biospheric pro- Y duction of relatively small amounts of trace gases such as carbon monoxide [CO,), methane (CH,), and nitrous oxide (N,) is of special interest, as they trap infrared radiation, thus warming the Earth's surface. These greenhouse gases and other biogenic trace gases, such as carbon monoxide (CO], odd nitrogen oxides (NOx), and a range of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) play a key role in atmospheric chemistry by affecting troposheric concentrations of ozone, the penetration of photochemically active solar ultraviolet radiation, the production of hydroxyl (OH) radicals, and, in the case of dimethyl sulfide (DMS), cloud formation. We are presently affecting the composition of the global atmosphere in a major way (51.Since the industrial revolution, carbon dioxide concentrations have increased by 25%. Fossil fuel burning is one
OLLABORATION
Thomas Rosswall Royol Swedish Academy of Sciences S-10405 Stockholm, Sweden
0013-936w91/0925-567$0250/00 1991 American Chemical Society
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of the key processes leading to emissions of greenhouse gases [see Figure 1).Industrial chlorofluorocarbons and related gases are also important greenhouse gases. In addition, the rapid rate of land-use changes that accompany human population growth, especially in the tropics, is contributing to the perturbation of biosphere-atmosphere interactions. For example, the emissions of hydrocarbons, CO and NO, from biomass burning during the dry season, result in the photochemical production of large amounts of ozone. Increased rice production most likely contributes significantly to increasing CH, concentrations. Enhanced N,O releases may well result from increased application of N-fertilizers and tropical deforestation activities. These and other anthropogenic emissions affect the atmosphere over a range of spatial scales. It has been estimated that carbon dioxide will account for about half of the future temperature increases, w h i l e methane, nitrous oxide, ozone, a n d chlorofluorocarbons will be responsible for the rest [Figure 2). Greenhouse gases are produced both by industrial and biological processes, but while industrial emissions are fairly well documented, our knowledge of the production rates of greenhouse gases through biological processes and the factors regulating emissions is still inadequate (81. We are at present unable to predict with any certainty the future emissions and the effects of these on climate. In the next 50 years, the increases in emissions of greenhouse gases to the atmosphere are estimated to result in global warming by 0.3 "C per decade (71. The increase will not be evenly distributed: the largest increases are expected in northern latitudes during winter. These temperEnviron. Sci. Technol.. Vol. 25.No. 4, 1991 567
WCW and IGBP are set up to narrow the uncertainties of scientific understanding of global change processes.
ature changes will in turn affect the amount and temporal distribution of precipitation. This may have drastic consequences for forestry and agriculture, as well as for nonmanaged vegetation. Rising temperatures will also lead to an increase in the levels of the world oceans due to a thermal expansion and the melting of the Arctic ice cap and glaciers. The increase over the next century i s calculated to he 6 cm per decade (71. The effects on all coastal regions will be drastic. We cannot fully assess the outcome, because most countries do not even possess topographic maps with the necessary resolution. A major problem is the uncertainty of present forecasts of future climate changes. It is not enough to predict global warming and mean changes in precipitation. It is necessary to make predictions at the regional and perhaps even local level. But climate is global and must be 568 Environ. Sci. Technol.. Vol. 25, No. 4, 1991
understood and analyzed at that spatial level. Further research is urgently needed-research that will bridge the global and local scales and assess the effects of climate change on the biosphere at various spatial scales (91. It is of the utmost importance to determine the fate of the life support system of the global environment for the next 100 years. The questions and threats are not limited by national boundaries. Due to the seriousness of the issues involved, international research must address these questions, and national governments should support the necessary studies. The two major programs addressing global change are the World Climate Research Programme (WCW) and the International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme (IGBP). The development of policy options depends, to a large extent, on our ability to understand and predict the future fate of our endangered Earth, a n d the
Global change research challenge The research community has been involved in the debate on global-change issues for several years. The problem facing scientists is that in order to understand the functioning of the Earth system, and thus to be able to predict the consequences of future changes in the global environment as well as the effects of proposed policies, there is an urgent need for interdisciplinary research. At the international level, the WCRP has been in existence for 10 years and is an essential component in our quest for an understanding of the climate system of our planet. The WCRP addresses the physical aspects of the climate system and provides a necessary base for the development of predictive capabilities of climate for different time periods. However, it does not to any significant extent address the biological and chemical controls of climate, and the effects of changing climate on the biosphere are not addressed at all. These issues are addressed by the IGBP (Figure 3). The World Climate Research Programme is jointly sponsored by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the International Council of Scientific Unions (ICSU). ICSU has a long tradition in international research programs such as the International Geophysical Year (IGY)in the late 1950s and the International Biological Programme [IBP) in the late 1960s and early 1970s. ICSU is the major international nongovernmental research organization, and most of its activities are conducted through its disciplinary unions and interdisciplinary committees. When ICSU perceives problems which call for new approaches in international research collaboration, it can initiate programs to address the problems. In 1986,ICSU decided to launch the International, Geosphere-Biosphere Programme: A Study of Global Change (IGBP). In its interdiscip l i n a r i t y , IGBP i s t h e m o s t ambitious program ever undertaken by ISCU, and probably by any other organization. The objective of the IGBP is to describe and understand the interactive, physical, chemical, and biological processes that regulate the total Earth system, the unique environment that it provides for life, the
changes that are occurring in this system, and the manner in which they are influenced by human activities. The IGBP is an evolving program that selects from the broad array of subjects that comprise the science of the Earth system those questions that are deemed to be of greatest importance in contributing to our understanding of the changing nature of the global environment on timescales of decades to centuries: that most affect the biosphere: that are most susceptible to human perturbations; and that will most likely lead to practical, predictive capability. As indicated in the box, the IGBP Core Projects will not all be initiated at the same time. Five of the projects (IGAC, JGOFS, BAHC, GCTE, and PAGES) have been established and science plans have been published (10-13).Implementation of JGOFS and IGAC has already begun, while implementation plans for BAHC, GCTE, and PAGES are currently being developed. For t h e p r o p o s e d projects (STIB, LOICZ, and GAIM), detailed science plans have not yet been published, but it is expected that these will be ready within the next two years, at which time the Scientific Committee for the IGBP (SC-IGBP), which guides the planning and implementation of the IGBP, will decide if they will be established and implementation plans developed. The SC-IGBP will consider, at a later stage, if a science plan should be developed for the potential Core Projects (GOEZS and GCEC) following full discussions and consideration by the international science community. For the established projects, international Core Project offices have been established to develop implementation plans and help develop a truly coordinated international research effort. In addition, two key activities relate to the needs of all research questions: The development of a global Data and Information System that will provide immediate and open access to all researchers, that will provide information needed for Earth system models, and that will define and sustain the longterm observations needed to detect significant global changes. An IGBP-DIS office is located in Paris. The establishment of a Globel Change System for Analysis, Rc
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Key questions and core projects of the International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme 1990 Its initial operational phase 1. How is the chemistry of the global atmosphere regulated. ana what IS the role of biological processes in producing and consuning trace gases? International Global Atmospneric ChemtStv (IGAC) Project. an e s t a b h e a IGBP Core Project (office is in Camoridge, MA. U.S., Stratosphere-Troposphere Interactions and the B,osphere (STIB); a proposed IGBP Core Project 2. How do ocean biogeochemical processes influence and respona to climate change? Joint Glooal Ocean Fibx Study (JGOFS): an establlsnea IGBP Core Project planned and implemented by the ICSU ScientificCammdtee on Ocean R e searcn (SCOR) (oH8ceis in Kiel. Germany] Global Ocean Euphotic Zone Stuoy (GOEZS]: a potential IGBP Core Project 3. How are changes in land use affectingthe resources of tne coastal zone. and how will changes in sea level and climate alter coastal ecosystems? Land-Ocean Interactions !n the Coastal Zone (LOICZ); a proposed IGBP Core Project 4. How does vegetation interact win pnysical processes of tne hyarological cycle? Biospheric Aspects of the Hydrological Cycle (BAHC]. an establisneo IGBP Core Project (office ,sIn Berlin, Germany) 5. How will global changes affectterrestr,a ecosystems? * Global Change an0 Terrestrial Ecosystems (GCTE); an establ Sned IGBP Core Project (officeis In Canberra, Abstralia) * Global Change and Ecologlcal Complexrty (GCEC): a potenttal IGBP Core Project 6. Wnat signficant climate and environmental cnanges have occJrred n the past. and what were their consequences? * Past Global Changes (PAGES);an established IGBP Core Project (off,ceIS in Berne. Switzerland] 7.How can our knowleoge ot components of the Earth system be integrate0 and synthesizea in a numerical frameworkthat prov,aes predtctNve capacity? Glooal Analysis Interpretation and Modelmg (GAIM);a proposed IGBP Core Project
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search, and Training (START: 24) consisting of a set of Regional Research Centres with affiliated networks of collaborating institutes. RRCs are expected to be set up in all major regions of the world. The IGBP will in particular promote the establishment of RRCs in developing countries. The development of joint activities with a program on “Human Dimensions of Global Environmental Change,” which is being planned by the International Social Sciences Council. A first joint activity will be to consider research necessary to elucidate the effect of land-use changes on the global system. Land use is a critical factor for many IGBP Core Projects, but the driving forces behind land-use change lie in the socioeconomic realm, and the IGBP needs to collaborate with
social scientists in order to address this issue meaningfully. National involvement in the IGBP and funding of research Core Projects of the IGBP will require the support of many participating nations if they are to be succ e s s f u l l y i m p l e m e n t e d . Each participating nation, while subscribing to the overall priorities of the IGBP, will emphasize the various program elements in a manner consistent with its own needs and capabilities. National IGBP committees constitute the crucial link between the national and international efforts. Many such committees have been established (Figure 4), but it is evident that further efforts need to be made to involve more developing countries in the IGBP planning and implementation. It is necessary to also ensure that finan-
GURE 3
inkages among biological and physical processes critical to our nderstanding of global change on a decade-to-century time scale’ Global change
I Hydrologicalcycle
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cial resources are made available to scientists in the developing world. IGBP research will normally be financed through regular national channels. In some instances, countries have developed global change programs for research with designated funding; in other instances, projects are evaluated solely on individual merit. In order to promote dialogue between national funding agencies t o create a n informal mechanism of consultation, the International Group of Funding Agencies for Global Change Research (IGFA) has been established. Funding for international planning and coordination as well as for Regional Research Centres will have to be secured from the nations participating in the program. It is estimated that the core IGBP planning and coordination needs an annual budget of about U.S. $2 million: the total cost
Present distribution of national IGBP committees (October 1990)
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for the Core Project offices is on the order of $3 million to $5 million; funding for the RRCs once fully operational is needed on the order of $ 5 0 million to $100 million: the cost for actual research needed may be some $1billion. In addition, necessary satellite observations: deployment of automatic submarines to collect ocean data: and a full Global Climate Observing System, as proposed during the Second World Climate Conference last year, might be on the order of $2 billion to $5 billion annually. A policy dilemma World leaders in many countries have taken the threat of climate warming very seriously. It is necessary that the political dialogue is continued with the aim of achieving an international agreement on how to protect the atmosphere and thus the global climate system. It is a healthy sign that the world’s political leaders now seem willing to discuss global environmental problems in a longterm perspective, although the scientific evidence is far from complete. The need for absolute certainty before a serious political discussion can take place has partly been removed. The Commission of the European Communities has concluded that “the study of policy options and scientific research have to go in par-
allel, and there must be a continuous feedback between the two.” The CEC has decided to aim to reduce the rate of increase in greenhouse gases and in the longer term to stabilize emissions. It went even further in stating that “the reduction of greenhousegas concentrations does not seem at this stage a realistic objective but could be a very long-term goal.” But how is this to be achieved? The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has considered policy options at the international level. Any international agreement to reduce greenhouse-gas emissions, other than CFCs, is going to be very difficult to reach. Carbon dioxide is the single most important greenhouse gas. The emissions from fossil-fuel burning are very unevenly distributed among different countries (Table 1).There are large national differences in per capita emissions, reflecting differences between developing and developed countries and between those countries with relatively efficient energy production systems and those without. Countries will thus face different challenges in reducing emission rates. Some governments have already set up energy policies with the aim of reducing regional and global pollution of the atmosphere. The problems are very serious, and drastic changes are needed. A com-
bination of legislative action, taxation, the industrial development of environmentally acceptable techniques, and individual actions is needed to reduce the emissions of pollutants into the atmosphere. Decisions are now being made by some countries to maintain the present emission level or reduce it by a few or 10%. If an international agreement is reached, the developing countries will not accept the condition that they freeze their emissions at the present level. Rodhe (16) has presented an example of what measures are needed in order to both protect the atmosphere and to allow for an equitable level of emissions for fossil-fuel carbon. If it is assumed that CO, levels in the atmosphere must not increase above 400 ppm(v)-the present level is 350 ppm[v)-the annual anthropogenic emissions must not be greater than 2.5 Pg carbon (1 61; present emissions are 5.5 Pg from fossil-fuel burning and 1.7 Pg from deforestation (1 71. Rodhe assumed that one-third of the “allowable” emissions would come from changes in land use and greenhouse gases other than CO,, which leaves 1.7 Pg from fossil-fuel sources. If it is further assumed that each person would be allowed the same emission, the annual per capita emission rate must be limited to 330 kg of carbon as Environ. Sci. Technol., Vol. 25, No. 4, 1991 571
approximately the current level. All discussions must be based on a development towards a sustainable and equitable future world. Policies must take scientific evidence into account, and scientists need to develop a much better understanding of the Earth system as a necessary guide for international governmental agreements on protection of the atmosphere.
IBLE 2
Comparison of acceptable world average per capita C02 emission and 1982 Swedish emission rates kg C per year
Asceptable per pita emission 'esent emission
330 2200
1 emlssion from various B c l i v i l i ~
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iod production id distribution per
wita ?ating of 6dium-sized )use (oil) 'ive a car io00 km
I
ight to Majorca )m Stockholm Source: Reference 15.
to the 1982 emissions of 4900 kg in the United States and 2200 in Sweden (Table 21. A crude cor..,,d
estimate of the sonrces of anthropogenic CO, emissions in Sweden is given in Table 2. Sweden would thus need to reduce its emissions by 85%. The average private car consumes more than three times the allowable per capita emission. This clearly shows how difficult any political action will he, if the aim is to stabilize the composition of the atmosphere at 572
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Conclusions Within the decade of the 199Os, the IGBP will launch a worldwide research effort, unprecedented in its comprehensive interdisciplinary scope, to address the functioning of the Earth system and to understand how this system is changing. The body of information generated by the IGBP will form the scientific underpinning for predictions relating to future causes and effects of global changes. Through its observational network and process studies, and the effective communication of the resulting data to scientists in all na:ions committed to this endeavor, :he IGBP will help provide the world's decision makers with the input necessary to wisely manage 'he global environment. Studies of the chemistry of the ati o s p h e r e a n d t h e e f f e c t s of hanged sources and sinks will be a rucial component of this research endeavor. It will also form an important link to the World Climate Research Programme (WCRF') of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the ICSU. While the WCRP will address the physics of the climate system and the effect of radiative forcing on climate, the IGBP will address key aspects of the relationships between the biological and chemical processes that regulate the functioning of the global system. These efforts will be paramount in narrowing the uncertainties i n our understanding of the functioning of the global system. The IGBP will design and implement research projects to produce global data sets on properties and processes central to global change. These will include observations and studies at the Earth's surface as well as from an array of Earth-sensing satellites. This research will make use of a network of Regional Research Centres in forging a new understanding of the interactions among biogeochemical cycles and physical processes of the Earth system. The IGBP will also interpret critical records of global changes of the past-particularly the records of
the last 2000 years, which when compared to the most recent glacial cycle will help us to understand the roles of human and natural forces in global change. The unification of global biogeochemical and physical approaches in the study of global change, combined with an understanding of the record of the past, will be used to develop models for predicting future change. In the course of this endeavor, the IGBP will promote an interdisciplinary approach to studies of the Earth system. It is essential to educate the next generation of scientists in such a manner that they will more fully understand the complexities of this system. This knowledge will be the key to success in the wise use of the Earth's resources for generations to come. Even if predictions of global changes are uncertain, we are certain of one thing: The future is not what it has been! Acknowledgments This paper is based to a large extent on IGBP reports ublished by the IGBP secretariat on beEalf of the ScientificCommittee for the IGBP. Copies of IGBP reports are available from the secretariat. References P. Chemistry of the Natuml Atmosphere: Academic Press: New
(11 Warnek,
York. 1988. Zehnder, A.J.B., Ed. Biologyof Anaerobic Microorganisms; Wiley: New York. 1988. (31 Andreae, M. 0.; Schimel, D. S., Eds. "Exchange of Trace Gases between Terrestrial Ecosystems and the Atmosphere"; Dahlem Workshop Reports, Life Sciences Research Report 47; (21
(continued on next page]
Thomas Rosswall is the executive director/secretariat of the International Geo-
sphere-Biosphere Programme in Stockholm, Sweden. He is also a professor at the Department of Water in Environment and Society at the University of Linkoping, Sweden and past secretarygeneml of the Scientific Committee on Problems of the Environment of the ICSU. His research interest is in thefield of microbial ecology and biogeochemical cycles, especially nitrogen.
Wiley: Chichester, U.K., 1989. Bouwman, A. F., Ed. Soils and the Greenhouse Effect; Wiley: Chichester, U.K., 1990. Rowland, F. S.; Isaksen, I.S.A., Eds. “The Changing Atmosphere”; Dahle m Workshop Reports. Physical, Chemical, and Earth Sciences Research Report 7 ; Wiley: Chichester, U.K., 1988. Warrick, R. A,; Barrow, E. M.; Wigley, T.M.L. The Greenhouse Effect and Its Implications for the European Community; Commission of the European Communities: Brussels, 1990. H o u g h t o n , J . T . ; J e n k i n s , G. 7 . ; Ephraums, J. J., Eds. Climate Change: T h e IPCC S c i e n t i f i c A s s e s s m e n t ; Cambridge University Press: Cambridge, U.K., 1990. Rosswall, T. et al. In Exchange of Trace Gases between Terrestrial Ecosystems and the Atmosphere; Andreae, M. 0.; Schirnel, D. S., Eds. Dahlem Workshop Reports, Life Sciences Research Report 47; Wiley: Chichester, U.K., 1989; pp. 73-95. Roswall, T.; Woodmansee, R. G.; Risser, P. G., Eds. Scales a n d Global Change: Spatial and Temporal Variability in Biospheric and Geospheric Processes; SCOPE 35; Wiley: ChiChester. U.K., 1988. (10) International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme. “The International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme: A Study of Global Change. The Initial Core Projects”; IGBP Report 12; IGBP: Stockholm, 1990. (11) Galbally, I. E., Ed. “The International Global A t m o s p h e r i c C h e m i s t r y (IGAC) Programme. A Core Project of the International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme”; Commission of Atmospheric Chemistry and Global Pollution of the ICSU International Association of Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics (IAMAP): Cambridge, MA, 1989. (12) Matson, P. A.; Ojima, D. S., Eds. “Terrestrial Biosphere Exchange with Global Atmospheric Chemistry”; IGBP Report 13; International GeosphereBiosphere Programme: Stockholm, 1990. (13) JGOFS. “Joint Global Ocean Flux
Study Science Plan”; JGOFS Report 5; International Council of Scientific Unions SCOR Secretariat: Halifax, NS, Canada, 1990. (14) International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme. “Global Change System for Analysis, Research, and Training (START)”;report of meeting at Bellagro Dec. 1990; IGBP report 15; IGBP: Stockholm, 1991. (15) Boden, T. A.; Kanciruk, P.; Farrell, M. P. Trends ’ 9 0 : A Compendium ofData on Global Change; Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center: Oak Ridge, TN, 1990. Rodhe, H. Dagens Nyheter, January 18, 1989. Also cited in T h e greenhouse effect: Causes, effects on possible measures; National Environmental Protection Agency: Stockholm, 1989 (Swedish). UNEP. Environmental Data Report; Blackwell: Oxford, 1989.
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