Length of Lag Phase and Additional Factors Related to Introduction

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Length of Lag Phase and Additional Factors Related to Introduction and Early Spread of Invasive Plants: A Regulator’s View Alan V. Tasker* U.S. Department of Agriculture, Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS), Plant Protection and Quarantine (PPQ), Riverdale, MD 20737 *E-mail: [email protected]

United States Department of Agriculture, Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (USDA APHIS) is one of the Federal agencies charged with prevention and control of newly introduced species. APHIS regulators are often asked to justify describing as "newly introduced" plants that have been in the country for a relatively extended number of years before they are identified as invasive. Field ecologists have identified time lags of 30 or more years between introduction and rapid population expansion for many herbaceous species, and 100 or more years for woody species. Various factors will affect the length of lag-phase between introduction and rapid spread. Lag-phase is considered by some, however, to be an artifact of the model or the scale used. Models are usually based on geometric expansion rates in circular dispersal patterns, whereas expansion of infestations is usually discontinuous in both time and place. Population growth may not correspond to rate of dispersal, if it is merely increase in a limited area without noticeable spread into a broader area. Because of this, what appears to be a lag may actually conform to a constant or exponential expansion rate when viewed from a broader scale. An inverse relationship between lag-phase length and number of introduced populations has been reported. Increased numbers of introductions should expose more populations to

Not subject to U.S. Copyright. Published 2011 by American Chemical Society In Invasive Plant Management Issues and Challenges in the United States: 2011 Overview; Westbrooks, R., et al.; ACS Symposium Series; American Chemical Society: Washington, DC, 2011.

conditions conducive to spread. Various measures of successful colonization exist, but success is difficult to predict.

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I. Introduction The current authority for APHIS regulation of weed species appears in the Plant Protection Act (PPA) signed into law in 2000 (1). Regulations implementing these authorities as related to weeds are mainly found in 7 Code of Federal Regulations (CFR) Ch. III Part 360. Federal Noxious Weeds (FNW) are plants listed in the Noxious Weed Regulations at 7 CFR 360.200. The Federal noxious weed definition in the PPA is “any plant or plant product that can directly or indirectly injure or cause damage to crops (including nursery stock or plant products), livestock, poultry or other interests of agriculture, irrigation, navigation, the natural resources of the United States, the public health, or the environment”. Because this definition is general, and APHIS resources for weed programs are limited, APHIS concentrates most of the federal effort onto weeds which fit the International Plant Protection Convention (IPPC) category of quarantine pests: having “potential economic importance to the area endangered thereby and not yet present there, or present but not widely distributed and being officially controlled” (2). In fact, previously under the Federal Noxious Weed Act (FNWA) of 1974 (now repealed except for one section) (3), a Federal Noxious Weed was defined using the terms "recently introduced" and "of limited distribution." The language in the PPA which authorizes remedial measures for new plant pests and noxious weeds in PPA Sec. 414, (a) “Authority to hold, treat, or destroy items” (1) includes the language “new to or not known to be widely prevalent or distributed within and throughout the United States” which is consistent with the IPPC quarantine definition. Because many plant pests under APHIS authority fall under the quarantine category, APHIS has traditionally considered weeds similarly to other pests we regulate. Thus, APHIS weed regulators are often asked to justify the description of plant taxa as “new to” if the taxa have been in the country more than a few years before either being found or being determined to be invasive. APHIS managers or stakeholders trained as entomologists, veterinarians, or wildlife biologists may have had limited experience with plant ecology. They are accustomed to dealing with species which are more mobile than plants, often have shorter generation times, and often invade and spread more rapidly. Thus, the common perception is that a "newly introduced" pest is one that has been introduced within a maximum of about three years. If a longer period has elapsed, a manager might assume that the pest is well established or naturalized, and not subject to eradication under the laws authorizing APHIS activities. For many plants, however, 10 or more years may be a relatively short introductory phase. Plant populations tend to expand less rapidly than insects or diseases, although ecologists could certainly cite contrary examples of rapid introduction, colonization, and expansion by plant populations, or conversely, slow expansion following invasion by vertebrates or other non-plant taxa. 246 In Invasive Plant Management Issues and Challenges in the United States: 2011 Overview; Westbrooks, R., et al.; ACS Symposium Series; American Chemical Society: Washington, DC, 2011.

The spread of a plant species may be viewed at a number of levels, as influenced by the goals of the viewer (4). Farmers or local land managers are primarily concerned with patchiness of weeds at the field or farm level, with a view to local weed control or management. At the county to continental scale, the focus of administrators and managers is more likely to be on invasion, quarantine, and (if possible) eradication. The legislative mandates establishing and guiding APHIS lead us primarily to take this view, rather than a weed management view. Stages of Invasion. Groves (5) defined the process of invasion in three phases:

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1. 2. 3.

Introduction - Propagules (usually seeds) arrive at a site beyond their original geographic range and establish populations of adult plants. Colonization - Plants in the founding population reproduce and increase in number to form a self-perpetuating colony. Naturalization - The species establishes new self-perpetuating populations, undergoes widespread dispersal, and becomes incorporated within the resident flora.

In many cases, an introduced plant is only identified as a nuisance (a weed) at the third stage. Unfortunately, troublesome weedy species are often characterized by particularly high initial rates of spread (6), and thus may quickly reach the second or third stage of invasion. Early detection and reporting of such species is critically important in developing an effective strategy for addressing them.

II. Typical Lag Phase Lengths Many species appear to have a lag period between introduction and spread or naturalization. For example, Pysek and Prach (7) (Table I) in the Czech Republic, determined lag phases on the order of 40 years for ornamental jewelweed (Impatiens glandulifera Royle) and Japanese knotweed (Polygonum cuspicum Sieb. & Zucc.). Sakhalin knotweed (Reynoutria sachalinensis (F. Schmidt ex Maxim.) Nakai) and giant hogweed (Heracleum mantegazzianum Sommier & Levier), exhibited lag phases on the order of 80 years. Kowarik (8) reconstructed invasion dynamics from historical records of the spread of introduced ornamental perennial species (mostly woody) in the Brandenburg area of Germany. Average time lag was 147 years between introduction for cultivation and the initiation of spread. First occurrence of an escaped plant was defined as the start of invasion without regard to subsequent success or failure of the invasion. Success of an invading species was defined in terms of naturalization. Catclaw mimosa (Mimosa pellita Kunth ex Willd.), a small tree that is native to Mexico and Central America was introduced to the George Brown Darwin Botanic Garden in the Northern Territory of Australia in the late 19th century (9). After escaping from the garden, the plant remained restricted to areas around the city of Darwin until the 1950s (Figure 1). 247 In Invasive Plant Management Issues and Challenges in the United States: 2011 Overview; Westbrooks, R., et al.; ACS Symposium Series; American Chemical Society: Washington, DC, 2011.

Table I. Characteristics of plant spread following introduction, relative to growth and reproductive characteristics (7) Lag Phase (Years)

Habit

Reproduction

Ornamental Jewelweed

40

Annual

Seed

Giant Hogweed

80

Perennial

Seed & Root

Japanese Knotweed

46

Perennial

Rhizome

Sakhalin Knotweed

83

Perennial

Rhizome

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Species

Figure 1. Catclaw mimosa. Invasive.org Image Gallery, U-GA. URL: http://www.invasive.org/browse/detail.cfm?imgnum=1149133 In 1952, a large infestation of the plant was discovered along the Adelaide River, about 100 km south of Darwin. By 1975, it had spread back northward along the river to the floodplains near the Arnhem Highway. By 1987, it formed 45,000 ha of impenetrable thickets on the vast floodplains of the Adelaide River system. The bristly pods of the plant are buoyant and break up into single seeded segments that are spread by water and by passing animals. Feral exotic water buffalos (Bubalus bubalis L.) provide an ideal seedbed for the plant in this area by continually disturbing the soils and scarifying the seeds with their hooves (10, 11). Catclaw mimosa was also introduced into south Florida in the 1950s. Currently, several small infestations of catclaw mimosa around Jupiter, Florida, are being eradicated by the Florida Department of Environmental Protection. In both cases, there is particular concern about the plant due to the stiff prickles (5-10 mm long) it bears, and its infestation of riparian habitats, which often block access to the water by animals and humans. 248 In Invasive Plant Management Issues and Challenges in the United States: 2011 Overview; Westbrooks, R., et al.; ACS Symposium Series; American Chemical Society: Washington, DC, 2011.

III. Influences on Length of Lag-Phase The above cited examples demonstrate lag phases of 40 to 147 years. So, one question is why do these long lag phases occur? Lag periods may be due to a variety of factors (12). 1. 2.

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3.

A stable low population may be maintained until new genotypes develop that are able to spread rapidly. A stable population may explode following an episodic event or set of environmental conditions. The population may grow more or less continuously but not be noticed until it becomes widespread.

Ewel (13) listed possible factors accounting for the lag between introduction and diffusion of melaleuca (Melaleuca quinquenervia (Cav.) Blake) and Brazilian peppertree (Schinus terebinthifolius Raddi) in Florida: 1. 2. 3. 4.

Introduction may have occurred into less disturbed (more pristine) and more invasion resistant ecosystems. Populations may have undergone rapid but unnoticed expansion. Disturbed areas may have served as staging areas from which the invading species showered the surrounding landscape with seed. Populations occupying disturbed habitats may have built up genetic diversity, thus becoming adapted for successful invasion of surrounding undisturbed communities.

Salisbury (14) postulated that an introduced species would have to reproduce locally to build up an "infection pressure" before spreading widely. Baker (15) speculated that this was at least partially due to the need to generate a sufficient measure of genotypic variability to accommodate habitat variability. Baker categorized "minor" weeds as those which require initial growth in a favorable habitat to develop such variability, and "major" weeds, which he said are pre-adapted to a wider range of habitats (general purpose genotypes) (16–18). The "major" weeds would spread more rapidly. Growth habit or reproduction type are not necessarily major influences on length of lag-phase. Pysek and Prach (7), as discussed above (Table I), found both ornamental jewelweed, an annual spread by seeds only, and Japanese knotweed, a polycarpic perennial reproducing in Europe mainly by rhizomes, to have roughly 40-year lag phases. Sakhalin knotweed, also a polycarpic perennial reproducing in Europe mainly by rhizomes, and giant hogweed, a monocarpic perennial spreading by both seed and rootstock, exhibited lag phases on the order of 80 years. Actual rate of spread once exponential expansion began, was greatest for the two species with the shorter lag phases. Species may establish local populations but exhibit little expansion for a considerable time, then suddenly spread (4). Under this model, populations first expand slowly at their periphery, limited by reproductive rates and other local 249 In Invasive Plant Management Issues and Challenges in the United States: 2011 Overview; Westbrooks, R., et al.; ACS Symposium Series; American Chemical Society: Washington, DC, 2011.

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demographic factors. Lack of suitable habitat within reach of short dispersal distance slows range expansion. The range of a species is determined by the availability of suitable habitats and the presence of dispersal barriers. Expansion of range may occur when new, suitable habitats are created (e.g. logging or sod busting activities), or when a dispersal barrier is removed (e.g. a new trade route) or a new dispersal mechanism occurs (e.g. the development of the railways). Spread is often mediated by human agency. Forcella (6) found that species which spread fastest in the western U.S. were those present as contaminants of cereal and forage seed. Surprisingly, species adapted for wind dispersal did not spread more quickly. Mack (19) linked the occupation of more than 200,000 km2 of the intermountain western North America by downy brome (Bromus tectorum L.) within a time span of 40 years, to the arrival of the grass as a comprehensive railway system was being completed at the end of the nineteenth century. Another example of human-facilitated dispersal is that of Senecio squalidus in the United Kingdom ((20, 21) both cited in (4)). The species was introduced into the Oxford Botanic Garden in 1699. By 1799, it was noted within the city, growing on walls and spreading relatively slowly. When it reached the local railway, rapid spread throughout the country occurred (21), presumably as a result of airborne seeds being caught in eddies from train cars (20). In the aforementioned Australian case of catclaw mimosa, local road building with heavy equipment may have been such an external dispersal mechanism (9). An inverse relationship between rate of spread and number of introduction foci has also been proposed (22). Increased numbers of introductions should expose more populations to conditions or vectors that are conducive to spread. Additionally, the rate of spread of invading populations may be a function of the type of introduction pattern. The area of infestation will be a geometric function of time if widely spaced foci develop, but a linear function of time if spreading from a single site (22, 23). This is because a population made up of several separated circles (foci) will spread faster than a single large focus of equivalent area (22–25). Presumably, this is because more edge areas are available where the population interacts with its surroundings.

IV. Lag-Phase: Real or Artifact? Some researchers consider lag-phase to be an artifact of the model or the scale used. A simple model of spread of colonizing plant populations (26) predicts that population growth rates tend to be exponential (i.e. a constant proportional rate of increase), while rates of spread tend to be linear. Additionally, expansion of infestations tends to be discontinuous in both time and place. Population growth, therefore, may occur in a discrete area, but this may not correspond directly to rate of dispersal over a wide area. Thus, what appears to be a lag may actually conform to a constant exponential expansion rate when viewed from another scale. Another scale problem is the comparative length of the life cycle, which has a bearing on our detection of a lag (27). An introduced tree with a long prereproductive phase may become established after several generations, but appear to have an unusually long adjustment period compared to an annual plant that 250 In Invasive Plant Management Issues and Challenges in the United States: 2011 Overview; Westbrooks, R., et al.; ACS Symposium Series; American Chemical Society: Washington, DC, 2011.

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becomes established after a decade. The total number of generations to achieve spread, however, may have been less in the case of the tree. The distinction may direct attention to the adjustments within and among species during the time that the potential invader was present but not expanding its population. Additionally, immediate success as an invader may not always be a good predictor of longer term success. The identification of the phases of an invasion process may be difficult. Most invasions are identified retroactively, not as they occur. Cousens and Mortimer (4) indicated that because scientists are looking for a lag phase, they tend to find one. It can be difficult to determine whether spread is exponential or two-phased. Either model can be used in curve fitting to describe the same data set, as is indicated by the two sample curves describing the same data set in Figure 2. Additionally, data reporting patterns may also give the impression of a two-phased expansion where exponential expansion actually may have occurred. Cousens and Mortimer (4) cited the case of serrated tussock (Nassella trichotoma (Nees) Hack) in South Africa. Farmers knew of the weed by 1930, but the first herbarium specimen is dated 1952. Following a farmers meeting, there was suddenly a large number of reported occurrences (28). Either plotting the number of reports against time, or assuming invasion date by first herbarium specimen would be misleading. Thus, the impression of rapid spread by a newly identifies species may not actually be spread, but the identification of populations present but previously unnoticed. Regardless of whether lag phase is real or a statistical or observational artifact, the fact remains that there is often a considerable time lapse between invasion and widespread dispersal of an alien species (Figure 2). This time lapse should allow managers time to evaluate the invasive potential of newly detected plant introductions before the plants become widespread, and thus while eradication is still feasible.

Figure 2. Two possible curves fitted to a constant data set. 251 In Invasive Plant Management Issues and Challenges in the United States: 2011 Overview; Westbrooks, R., et al.; ACS Symposium Series; American Chemical Society: Washington, DC, 2011.

V. Defining Invasion Success

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Defining successful invasion may be a problem. Panetta and Randall (29) mentioned that failure is readily demonstrated, but success may be fleeting. As long as the number of individuals remains small, a colony is quite vulnerable to extinction. Erlich (30), in fact, stated that ecologists can predict that most invasions will fail, and even among invasive organisms, most colonization attempts fail due to environmental and demographic random factors (stochasticity). He went on to state that human disturbance is almost always required for successful invasion. The outcome of an introduction, according to Panetta and Randall (29) depends on the action of two groups of variables: 1. 2.

Biological and ecological characteristics that constitute the preadaptation of an organism. Random variables, such as the environmental and demographic factors that impact the individual introductions.

Although immigration of alien plants accounts for many of our current weeds, many immigrant species fail to undergo range expansion after migration to a new region. As a case in point, Salisbury (14) indicated that of 348 alien plant species recorded in 1919 by Hayward and Druce (31) along the River Tweed, only four species had become established in Britain. Crawley (32) found none of the 348 species surviving near the River Tweed in the mid-1980s. Kowarik (8) defined first occurrence of an escaped seedling (from introduced ornamental perennials) as the start of an invasion without regard to subsequent success or failure of the invasion. Invasion success was defined in terms of naturalization. The successful invaders were not necessarily quicker to start invasion. Less that 10% of the introduced species began to invade, 2% became established, and 1% were successful in invading the native vegetation (naturalizing). A study of invaders in the British Isles by Williamson and Brown (34), found that of roughly 10% of invaders that become established, only 10% become pests. Panetta and Randall (29) listed as factors improving establishment success in three-cornered jack (Emex australis Steinheil): seed burial, seed dormancy, and cycling of seed amongst dormancy groups. The presence of seed dormancy incurs costs during colonizing episodes (35), but such costs are reduced when the probability of seed survival is improved (36). The main measure of success for Panetta and Randall (29) was production of at least one viable seed. This can be related to such factors as reproductive capacity, competitive ability, and seedling mortality. Colonizing performance on a local scale is reflected in rate of spread. Spread involves a series of colonizing events, so effective colonizers would be expected to suffer a lower proportion of failures. The two leading causes of failure to become established are inappropriate climate and predation (37), although the impact of competition, disease, and other factors are probably underestimated because they are harder to measure (33).

252 In Invasive Plant Management Issues and Challenges in the United States: 2011 Overview; Westbrooks, R., et al.; ACS Symposium Series; American Chemical Society: Washington, DC, 2011.

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VI. Predicting Invasion Success Prediction of success following invasion is also problematical according to Hobbs and Humphries (12). The characteristics of the individual species may be of less importance than the interaction of invader and the target community (37). Estimates of successful invasion (establishment), range from 10% (34, 39) to 35% (37, 39). Of those species which become established, Williamson (38) estimated perhaps 10% become pests, while Lodge (37) listed estimates ranging from 2% to 40% from a variety of literature. Lodge (37) postulated that these figures may be inaccurate because studies showing no effect are not often published. Rejmanek (40) found high degrees of correlation between mean latitudinal range (primary range) of European Asteraceae and Poaceae species and their mean range after introduction into North America (secondary range). Estimates of potential ecological range using climate, however, may be faulty (4) because: 1. 2. 3.

4.

There is no guarantee that climate is currently the limiting factor. The species may still be spreading, with current distribution reflecting historical accident. Populations in various parts of the current range may have differentiated into ecotypes, and the absence of certain of the ecotypes in a population may result in poor spread predictions. Apparent climatic limits may relate to a particular micro-climate, which may be related to the cultural or production system which hosts the weed. Growing the plant in a pot under laboratory climatic conditions would not exactly replicate such field habitat conditions, thus may fail to accurately predict ecological range.

Forcella and Wood (41) and Forcella et al. (42) concluded that the positive relationship between native distribution and invasive capacity arose from a greater probability of transport to a new area for propagules of a widespread species. Others (43, 44) feel invasiveness is more likely a factor of interaction between biological properties of a species and of the recipient region rather than solely a factor of the probability of introduction.

VII. Summary In summary, it appears that the invasion process (introduction, colonization, and naturalization) in plants occurs over what, in human terms, is an extended period of time. Lag periods of 30 to 100 years have been noted. Invasion by exotic plants has been characterized by some as "an explosion in slow motion." In many cases, slow early spread is a realistic definition of the process. Does this mean that we should wait 30 years before taking measures to control an invading population? Not at all. In cases where detection of a problem species (taxon) is delayed, the actual time from the original invasion may not be particularly important. We must ask ourselves, if this species is not yet spreading rapidly, are there characteristics suggesting it is in a lag-phase and may start to spread rapidly, or is it unlikely to ever spread rapidly. Has this species acted as an invader in 253 In Invasive Plant Management Issues and Challenges in the United States: 2011 Overview; Westbrooks, R., et al.; ACS Symposium Series; American Chemical Society: Washington, DC, 2011.

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other localities? Are there signs that colonization or naturalization is in progress? Even if a population is spreading slowly, there may be critical factors suggesting that it could begin to spread rapidly at some point, and therefore, should be eradicated while there is still a chance. Of course, the current extent of population will also be relevant to whether eradication of an invader is practical. Factors likely to be of more importance than the time since introduction for evaluation of an invading population are biological and ecological characteristics such as reproductive capacity, seed dormancy characteristics, competitive capacity, potential ecological range, the potential threat to human activities, and/or the likelihood (or level) of ecological damage.

References 1.

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