CAREER OPPORTUNITIES
Manpower needs for chemists and chemical The chemical profession, like a team that has developed the habit of victory, will find it hard to change its winning ways. The needs of industry, universities, government, and other employers of chemists and chemical engineers will combine to make this year another of great opportunity for chemists and chemical engineers. This year most major chemical companies are planning to recruit more chemists and chemical engineers than College enrollments are reaching the saturation point, yet the supply of chem- last year—itself a banner year. Frank S. Endicott, director of placement at ists and chemical engineers is falling behind the demand. One of the consequences might be a shortage of teachers and an aggravation of the problem
Northwestern University, in his 20th annual survey of employment trends of university graduates shows that this year's quest for chemists is expected to exceed last year's by close to 44%. Although there is no breakdown for chemical engineers, the companies surveyed expect to hire more than 60% more engineers in general this year than last. Moreover, the picture for the demand for chemists and chemical engineers looks rosy for at least the next five years. The glowing job picture for chemists is a reflection of many of the favorable forecasts of certain indicators which are used frequently as measures of the health of the chemical and allied products industry. For example, sales by the chemical and allied products industry probably will reach $55 billion by 1970. Up from $39.5 billion in 1965, this figure represents a sales growth rate of close to 7% a year. Research and development spending by the chemical industry is also climbing rapidly, though not as spectacularly as sales. R&D expenditures may well reach $1.8 billion a year by 1970 (compared with an estimated $1.36 billion in 1965), a climb of slightly less than 6% annually. Furthermore, the present boom in capital expenditures will probably continue well into 1967 (C&EN, Nov. 22, 1965, page 62). Last year, capital expenditures for the chemical industry hit close to $3.0 billion. The figure for the next six years will total close to $18.0 billion. These figures are related to the continued demand for chemists and chemical engineers at all degree levels. These days, of course, Ph.D/s are always in demand. Most chemical companies cannot hire enough Ph.D/s to satisfy their research needs, and the
engineers continue brisk need for more Ph.D.'s on college faculties is increasing rapidly. However, masters and bachelors in chemistry will not be left waiting at the door. Research is only one facet of the chemical industry. Production and sales are equally important categories, in most companies providing more total opportunities for chemists and chemical engineers than does R&D. Over all, companies recruit 40% of their chemists for R&D, 40% for production, and 20% for sales. This distribution varies from company to company (Du Pont, for example, plans to place 25% of its newly recruited chemists and chemical engineers in R&D positions, 50% in production, and the remaining 25% in sales). Nevertheless, in most chemical companies, production and sales positions account for the majority of the openings which are filled primarily by B.S. and M.S. degree holders. Still another group receiving increased attention in the chemical industry is the chemical technicians. Chemical companies are hiring more and more technicians to help their professional employees in both R&D and production. Using technicians is one way companies aim to combat the shortages and to extend the effectiveness of their professional personnel. One company executive says, "I'd hire every one [technician] I could get my hands on." Generally, companies use a higher ratio of technicians to professionals in production than in research. One production-oriented firm has about three technicians per professional in its laboratories, but in production has a ratio of more than 15 to one. Most other chemical companies don't have such a high ratio. Indeed, according to a 1963 Manufacturing Chemists' Association survey, few chemical com-
panies have a ratio greater than two to one. But almost all chemical firms say that the ratio of technicians to professional personnel in their companies is increasing. Demand Some estimates of the demand for chemists by 1970 are available. One estimate, by Dr. Arthur F. Scott (C&EN, April 26, 1965, page 9 4 ) , puts the demand for chemists in 1970 at 75% higher than in 1960. Perhaps more to the point, he predicts a shortage of about 20,000 chemists by that time. His estimates for the 1970 demand were based on assumptions that a high level of economic activity (GNP growing about 4% a year) would prevail, that defense spending would increase slightly, and that both the technological advances of recent years and R&D expenditures would continue to grow. Now, having passed the midpoint of the decade, the economy appears to be meeting his conditions well. Furthermore, the economy is likely to continue to do so for the remainder of the decade. Still another more revealing indication of the tight demand for chemists and chemical engineers is the rise in their starting salaries. In 1965, salaries reached another all-time high, and preliminary forecasts show that this year's graduates will be doing even better financially than last year's starting chemists and chemical engineers. According to the previously mentioned survey by Frank S. Endicott, monthly salaries for beginning bachelors in chemistry and chemical engineering will average $20 to $30 more than 1965 graduates. The increased salary benefits will, in varying degrees, cut across all educational levels of chemists and chemical engineers regardless of employer or type of work.
As the manpower demand increases, chemical companies expand their college recruiting programs. Here, a recruiter from Celanese interviews a prospective graduate at the University of Maryland
There is every indication that the rising trend for chemists' salaries will continue throughout the decade and well into the next. In a recent ACS salary study, David Roethel (C&EN, Feb. 21, page 72), assuming a continuation of the past 10-year trend in salaries, predicts that starting salaries for B.S. chemists will be $625 per month in 1968 and $700 in 1972. For Ph.D.'s the corresponding starting salaries will be $1090 and $1260. Using these ACS data, Mr. Roethel found that salaries for experienced personnel generally remain a constant MARCH
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percentage above the starting salary level of employees with equivalent academic training. For instance, a bachelor with three years' experience earns close to 18% more than his newly employed co-worker. The holder of a bachelor's degree with seven years' experience earns 36% more; with 12 years' experience, 61%. With more than 20 years' experience a chemist will earn about 100% more than starting chemists. For Ph.D.'s the corresponding percentages of starting salaries are 2%, 13%, 30%, and 52%. Supply Hand in hand with demand for scientific manpower goes supply. Supply and demand for scientific personnel are usually in balance—except during wide-scale unemployment during a depression. If personnel are not available, projects, plans, and expansions are canceled or postponed. Except for short-term fluctuations, those organizations that hire chemists and chemical engineers will be able to use as many professional chemists and chemical engineers as are graduated in the next five years. Thus, when Dr. Scott forecasts for
1970 a supply of chemists that falls short of the estimated demand by at least 20,000, there will not be 20,000 jobs vacant. Rather, there probably will be a significant number of programs which will not have been carried out because of the shortage of available scientific manpower. One particularly worrisome aspect of this prospective shortage of chemists is that there will be an insufficient number of new Ph.D.'s in chemistry who enter teaching to educate and train the chemists and chemical engineers needed to maintain our technological progress. The insufficiency of teachers will accentuate the shortage problem, for either the number of trained chemists graduated or their technical competence will become more and more inadequate. The U.S. must keep pace with recent technical progress if it is to maintain its prominent position on the world scene. Chemical progress is an indispensable cog in our over-all technology. However, there is little likelihood that the manpower shortage for chemists can be alleviated. Already there is concern that we have reached the limit of our scientific manpower availability. According to Dr. Wallace R. Brode (Science, Jan.
Local Selective Service boards can classify Selective Service registrants in categories that afford educational or occupational deferments. Generally, the local boards place in these categories college students in good standing (IIS) or persons who have a critical occupation in an essential activity (ll-A). Lists of currently critical occupations are published by the U.S. Department of Labor, and lists of essential activities by the Department of Commerce. For the most part, Selective Service considers that all scientists with at least M.S. degrees—or the equivalent in experience—and all engineers have critical occupations. Essential activities primarily include teaching mathematics, science, and engineering (in high school and in institutions of higher learning) and research, development, and production in critical defense industries. . These critical classifications, however, are merely guidelines, and no local draft board is compelled to abide by them. If they have been classified l-A, registrants who think they qualify for deferment may appeal for change in classification to ll-S or I l-A. within 10 days of the date of mailing of the l-A classification. Denial by the local board can be appealed to the state appeal board (in either the state where the registrant lives or the state where he works or studies) within 10 days of the mailing of the classification. Because of frequent delays incurred with mailing, the registrant should include a request for appeal to the higher board in his letter to the local board. In all cases, requests should be supported with letters or documents from the registrant's employer or university.
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24, 1964, page 313), college enrollments are reaching the saturation point. In 1962, 43% of college-age Americans were admitted to colleges (52% of college-age men and 36% of college-age women) and 18 to 20% of college-age Americans were graduated. Of all men 18 to 21 years old in the U.S., 25% graduate from college. The percentage is considerably less (14%) among women in that age group. However, these percentages are based on figures for all students in all colleges—only 4.5% of the total graduates have degrees in physical sciences. Furthermore, although roughly half of the physical science graduates major in chemistry, more than half of the chemistry graduates do not remain in their field of specialization. Thus, to increase what is now only a trickle of college graduates who enter the field of chemistry, there should be some effort to: • Encourage a much greater portion of women students and women graduates to enter the chemical profession than are now entering it. • Increase the percentage of students who continue through to graduation.
Denial of deferment at the state level may be appealed to the Presidential Appeal Board within 10 days if the state appeal board voté Is split If it is unanimous, an employer, school, or a disinterested party such as the Scientific Manpower Commission may seek a review at the state Selective Service headquarters. But, if the employer, school, or disinterested party is not satisfied by the review, he may seek further review at National Selective Service Headquarters in Washington, D.C. A registrant cannot be inducted during the time any appeal is pending. Student** A full-time student who fails to get a ll-S classification (either because of poor standing in college or a short supply of available registrants at his loca| draft board) while enrolled in school can get a statutory deferment (IS) that allows him to finish the current academic term. However, a l-S classification is nonrenewable. A student, if he wishes, can appeal again for a ll-S classification upon expiration of the l-S. Recently Selective Service decided to resume qualification tests for college students. These tests, which have not been used since the Korean conflict, Will be given in May and June, and will be used by local draft boards as one criterion to determine which students will be given ll-S deferments. According to Betty Vet* ter, executive secretary of the Scientific Manpower Commission, all male college students should plan to take the qualification test. They probably will not have a second chance to take it, since after this sum'W^fJÊjj^ wHl be available largely to high school seniors.
Chemical sales and R&D Spending in the Chemical industry will climb faster than GNP, and input of scientific manpower will become inadequate 1955 equals unity Chemical RAD Spending Chemical Sale* Gross National Product
i i i i i i i i i i i i i i i i i 1955 1957 1959 1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 Source: CftEN Estimates
Military Draft One factor which enters into this year's college recruiting by chemical companies is the increased draft call stemming from our country's growing military commitment in Vietnam. In January, the call was up to 38,280— the highest since the Korean conflict and up from 7900 a year ago—and although it dropped slightly the following two months, it is likely to climb higher later this year. The call-up will definitely affect the scientific manpower supply, as local draft boards, to meet their quotas, induct more and more undergraduates and graduate students as well as those with critical occupation deferments. So far, graduate students are facing the most severe pressure, as local boards try to induct them before they reach 26. (At age 26, registrants go to the next-to-last category of the I-A list; if ever deferred, registrants technically remain eligible until age 35.) Normally, a graduate engaged in some aspect of research will not be called up. But, if he comes from an area where there are few available registrants, he may be inducted even though he can qualify for an occupational deferment. So far, most chemical companies engaged in a significant amount of research activity have had little trouble keeping their chemists and chemical engineers blanketed under a deferment. Most chemical companies appear to take the tightened draft situation calmly. One executive puts it, "We'll certainly not
Source: Office of Education
squawk if someone higher up than we are decides he needs our man more than we do." Most companies say they would appeal a change in classification only in exceptional cases. But if the number of draftees increases significantly, then some companies could well be hurt. For example, Du Pont says that an increased draft call will give companies which can provide greater assurance of an occupational deferment because of government contracts a better competitive angle on recruiting. Other companies may run into more serious trouble by losing too many of their employees. In the interests of preventing companies from having their manpower badly depleted in an emergency draft call, the Scientific and Engineering Manpower Commissions have prepared "Employer's Inventory of Critical Manpower," a manual which helps a company analyze the probable draft liability of its male employees. When kept current with the State Director of Selective Service, the inventory helps a company avoid being depleted of scientific personnel during an emergency. Students about to graduate need not find their chances for employment discouraging because of their draft status. Most companies will interview new graduates regardless of their status, and a large number will employ graduates if they are not slated for immediate induction. Also, an employee inducted into the Armed Forces has re-employment (if he so chooses) guaranteed by law.
Earnings for Ph.D.'s in Chemistry projected to 1975 monthly salary, thousand dollars
Earnings for B.S. Graduates in Chemistry projected to 1975 monthly salary, thousand dollars
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