National Groups Examine Resources Contradictory views on nation's and world's ability to meet over growing needs for water, minerals, energy, research, and land W A S H I N G T O N , D . C.-Almost l£>00 delegates, representing a cross section ot national organizations interested in various phases of natural resources, gathered here for three days (Dec. 2 to 4 ) to consider utilization and conservation of domestic and foreign resources and energy. Subjects covered (see box) in eight main panels included land, water, nonfuel minerals, energy, foreign and research. No conference of this scope or magnitude has been held since the days of President Theodore Roosevelt (1908). As expected by conference leaders, there were wide extremes of opinion expressed on practically every subject. O n e of the objectives of the conference, however, was to get on the record various philosophies and views. Careful analysis of this material may help governments and groups interested in resources in formulating their own policies and programs. Purpose—Focusing Attention O n Resources
T h e principal objective of the conference was to bring into as sharp a focus as possible the issues faced by the American people with respect to resources and energy. This involves a survey of resources, study of expected demands over the next 25 years, and methods of using and conserving them. I n such a study, foreign resources are as important as domestic ones. In approaching the subject, the con-
ference utilized many comprehensive studies which have been m a d e of the resources field. Typical sources were the reports of the President's Materials Policy Commission (Paley Commission), President's Water Resources Policy Commission and certain ones of the Hoover Commission on government reorganization. The conference was sponsored by Resources for the Future, Inc., a recently-established nonprofit organization, supported by the Ford Foundation. While the meeting had the blessing of the Administration, the Government was not involved directly. The conference was the organization's first major activity and cost approximately $189,000. Approximately 40 national organizations representing industry', labor, agriculture, education, conservation and science, were among the sponsors of the conference. Resources, Inc. and the conference are deliberately avoiding formulation of proposed legislation. Its immediate objective is to prepare a report setting forth information developed and views expressed at the conference. It is hoped that such materials will at least furnish the broad outlines of the problem as a whole and thus help serve as a guide to long range planning. Future plans are described below. Brookings Paper Sets Scene
In considering resources over the next 25 years, certain assumptions must be made. T h e Brookings Institution, in
President Eisenhower said we must not _ let pressure groups or extremists lead us into •wasting or misusing the nation's natural resources. He was introduced by the conference chairman, Lewis W. Douglas (right)
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prerparing an overall resume of the resources picture to serve as a starting point for the discussion, assumes that the cold war will continue indefinitely, that U. S. population will continue to increase, that the level of economic activity will continue to rise, and that resource requirements of the rest of the world mav rise even faster than those of the U. S. More specifically, it is estimated U. S. population will increase to a total of 198-221 million people by 1975 and gross national product bv 1975 will be double that of 1950. Once such assumptions are made, many basic questions arise (see box). There appears to be general agreement that future demands for the world's resources will be far in excess of those of today. To permit a continuing rise in standards of living, it will be necessary not only to obtain needed materials b u t to obtain them at lowest possible cost in labor and materials. Two extreme views on the future resources picture have been described. One is that population growth will continue to the point where food requirements will outstrip supply. Preceding this, food will become increasingly scarce; real costs, higher; consumption, lower; finally leading to a balancing of population and food supply through famine. The second and opposing view is that the answer to many of the resources problems will be found in the potentialities of science. Supporters of this concept feel that the "inexhaustible riches around us" make the possibility of abolishing human want a technical reality. Even if a middle of the road view is taken, there is still much room for controversy-.
ACS President Farrington Daniels (center), chairman of the Panel on Energy Resources, poses with panel officers (left to right) Henry Sargent, Arizona Public Service Co.; Austin Cadle, Standard Oil of California; H. C. Hottel, Massachusetts Institute of Technology; and C. Petrus Peterson, National Reclamation Association
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Earl P. Stevenson, president, Arthur D. Little, Inc., said that man's insatiable curiosity concerning t h e physical world is the greatest resource of all. When research is considered as a resource, man must be considered as an individual. This requires that the "gifted few" be identified in high school, and encouraged to enter careers of science through college and graduate school training. To insure that these persons will be found, more trained teachers in physics and chemistry are needed, starting at the high school level. "Never in the history of man," he said, "have so many depended on so few." W a t e r Resources—There Is Lack Of Vision, N o t W a t e r
There is no simple or even complicated answer to the question of whether the U. S. will have enough water of the right kind at the right place at t h e right time in the years ahead. T h e panel on water resources came to this conclusion after a three day study. About the only thing that appears certain, they feel, is t h a t there will be increased demand for water over the next 100 years. The next two decades are crucial because t h e U. S. has entered a building period with respect to dams, power plants, navigation facilities and levees which will tend to freeze the matter of water development. T h e Tennessee basin is fully developed with river regulating works. Tliere is still a little time, however, to make changes in plans for other basins, if changes are considered desirableO n e factor noted b y the panel is that the 17 Western states, which have 6 0 % of the land area of the nation, possess only 25% of the nation's water supply. With respect to use of water, it was agreed that human needs must b e met first and domestic animals second. After that there is controversy as to which activities should get preference, such as irrigation, navigation, power, mining, industry, wildlife, and recreation. Large new demands, particularly for irrigation in the East, are considered likely. Unless and until it is possible to obtain substantial amounts of water from the atmosphere (rainmaking) or from the sea (demineralization), care must be exercised in using this basic resource. There is a great deal of misunderstanding of major phases of water resources, the panel feels. This is exemplified by the existence of federal legislation which assigns various phases of water conservation a n d development to different government agencies. I n some cases provisions of these laws conflict. Some panel members felt that, without adequate planning, water resources VOLUME
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Left to right, Charles P. Taft, Committee for a National Trade Policy; Horace Albright, Resources for the Future board chairman; Andrew Fletcher, St. Joseph Lead Co.; and Herman W. Steinkraus, vice chairman of the conference of the nation could be so diminished in 25 years a_s to create critical conditions. Typical dangers are exhaustion of some ground water reservoirs, increased pollution, fuirther deterioration of land cover, and insufficient supplies to meet power, atgricultural, and municipal needs. Ev'en with planning and conservation, irraprovement of the water resources picture will be gradual. Critical conditions which may develop will in general "be the result of the lack of human vision and not in lack of water itself. One point of general agreement is that each -major water basin area has its own unitque characteristics. Water planning, therefore, must be designed on a basin area basis. Estimates as to the cost o£ water resources development over the next few decades range from $50 billiom to $100 billion. Some feel that one solution to the problem involves close liaison between state and private groups with respect to local needs and cooperation with the federal Government on multiple purpose developments. Another proposal involves creation of a national board of review. Nonfuel /Minerals—Domestic Exploration N e e d e d
Considering the steadily expanding economy and national security the panel on domestic problems of nonfuel minerals concluded that available domestic resources must b e enlarged. H o w to stimulate domestic mineral exploration^, however, raises many problems. One highly controversial area relates to tax incentives. Among tax modifications proposed was removal of present limitationts on the right to treat exploration expenditures as expense items. Another idea was that new operations should mot b e considered as having true profits until initial investment has
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been recouped. A 3 ! / 2 -year income tax exemption, such as is accorded new mining ventures in Canada, was mentioned. It was considered unwise to seek special treatment exempting mining capital gains from taxation, even though such a step would stimulate investment in new mining ventures. The group indicated that while it felt that tax depletion allowances are essential to this industry, that increased allowances were not justified at present. The panel felt that such measures as described would result in increased tax revenues over a period of time. In the area of new technology, it was felt that acceleration of t h e present geologic mapping program is essential plus an inventory of knowledge in this field to b e done by the National Science Foundation. With respect to the Government's role, it was felt that conventional tariffs alone do not assure adequate protection for this industry. Various proposals were mentioned without there being any majority preference expressed. These include sliding scale tariffs, quotas, direct subsidies, and government purchase of surpluses. Similarly there was no general agreement on hybrid proposals such as subsidy-pluspurchase and tariff-plus-subsidy. In general the group failed to exhibit enthusiasm for government financial aid to exploration ventures, such as is being currently given by t h e Defense Minerals Exploration Administration. There were some reservations, however, with respect to strategic minerals and small operators. In general, government should not compete with private industry in mineral development, the panel felt. Energy Resources—Unconventional Sources Still in Future
The energy resources panel felt that the nation can face the future with con5167
Left. Conference chairman Douglas and Norvell W. Page, director of conference. Right. Evan Just, Cyprus Mines Corp., outlines program for nonfuel minerals. Seated are Christopher M . Granger, formerly of U. S. Forest Service, and Robert Koenig, Cerro de Pasco Corp. fidence. T h e y concluded that the nation has a b u n d a n t energy resources for the next 25 years and t h a t as some types of fuel become exhausted, others can be brought in to replace them. Nuclear energy, for example, can be brought in when needed and solar energy also lies ahead, particularly if a vigorous program of research is maintained. In all the panel discussions, the underlying t h e m e was the complex relationship between economics and technology. T h e t h e m e of technological advance, then economic fixity, then new technological advance, then new economic fixity was expressed in many panels. With respect to hydroelectric power, the general concensus was that local and state government and private industry each have a major role to play and that t h e r e should b e close collaboration b e t w e e n the various entities. In the field of coal a n d oil, there was strong support among producers for continuation of depletion allowances as a means of encouraging exploration and greater production of mineral fuels. With respect t o a fossil fuel such as oil shale, it was felt that t h e government would be warranted in supporting and sponsoring research on t h e premise that this development could help conserve other resources. T h e economic-technological relationship is considered strong in the field of atomic p o w e r . T h e panel felt that by 1975 atomic energy will not constitute a large fraction of total installed power capacity (electric) even though it may b e supplying a substantial amount. T h e eventual contribution of nuclear power to the nation's energy resources 5168
will be substantial. Development o f solar energy, likewise, will d e p e n d to a great extent on economics. W h e n teclinological developments c u t d o w n some of the economic barriers, solar energy is expected to come into its o w n , particularly with respect to heating o f homes. Panel chairman Farrington Daniels, University of Wisconsin, a n d President of the A M E R I C A N C H E M I C A L
SOCIETY,
pointed out that within t h e past £50 years, energy requirements have grown almost fivefold. Within t h e past 2 5 Basic Questions Concerning Resources
1. What will the country b e like i n years to come? what population and national output can be expected? and how will changes in the nation's -ecorfeomy be reflected in type and volume of resource use? 2. Can current trends of mounting resource demand and difficulties of suj>ply be expected to continue to pohvfc where resource limitations will hainpeaanticipated national growth? 3. Is enough known about needs nncl resources of United States and ©far nations, to anticipate critical shortages? Will science and engineering meet challenge by developing new materials, new sources of materials., new methods of obtaining and bettexways of using them? 4. To what extent will next 50 years see material aspirations of less fortunate nations fulfilled? and how rnigli* economic improvements in rest of globe affect U. S.? 5. Can problems be resolved b y extemporaneous solution? or is coordinated study and action by industry^ government, and private groups necessary? C H E M K M
years the increase has b e e n 6 5 % . With population increases and corresponding growth of industry, present consumption may double within t h e next 25 years. W o r l d Resources—U. S. Security Is M a i n Factor
I n most discussions relating t o the subject of U . S. concern with world resources, questions of national security w e r e of major importance. Dependency of t h e nation on foreign versus domestic sources in t h e event of war is of great importance. It was noted, however, that stockpile goals and concepts of commercial policy b e i n g followed by the Government may b e based on situations confronted b y the nation in previous wars. A review of these subjects might well be in order in the light of more current concepts of vulnerability. I n discussing a commercial policy, the panel noted that raw materials are often subject to no tariffs (free list) or t o low tariff duties. It was felt that the Buy American Act and Customs Simplification Act are not of great significance in this area. So long as t h e r e is an escape clause and peril point provision in t h e law, t h e panel in general felt t h a t t h e commercial policy is a d e q u a t e and appropriate. This concept does not hold for higher stages of processing or fabrication. T h e major exceptions to this general line of thought were voiced with respect to oil, lead, zinc, a n d copper. On the one side of this argument were those w h o felt that security consideration calls for a strong domestic indusA N D
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try which would not result if m i n e s had t o close because of foreign c o m p e tition. T h e opposing v i e w was t h a t alternative low-cost sources of s u p p l y a r e available in relatively safe a r e a s . Some form of relief other t h a n tariffs was suggested for these industries. With respect to foreign resource d e velopment, extreme views were p r e sented which ranged from advocating complete d e p e n d e n c e on government to d e p e n d e n c e on private capital. T h e m i d d l e view was that private capital should b e t h e p r i m a r y agent w i t h government financing technical assistance, supporting certain strategic projects, and aiding in financing (loans) for such auxiliary facilities as port facilities, public utilities, roads, and irrigation projects. Removal of obstacles to foreign investment w a s considered essential b y many while some mining spokesmen felt t h a t revision of U . S. tax laws w a s of primary importance. Volatility of prices on raw materials seems to be inherent in t h e raw m a t e rials field. While recognizing this fact, the panel discussion failed to c o m e u p with any stabilization proposal w h i c h met with general acceptance. International commodity agreements, buffer stocks, and u s e of t h e stockpile for economic stabilization were all mentioned. Each of these has serious disadvantages, the panel felt. Resources Research—Needs Personnel, Communications, I n t e g r a t i o n
T h e future of research, t h e panel on problems in resources research felt, depends on highly qualified personnel, adequate communications, and integration of n e w knowledge from different b u t interrelated areas. Because fundamental research is a resource, it should be given m o r e emphasis. T h e r e is a w i d e r a n g e of subjects w h i c h n e e d s m o r e thorough study. In t h e energy field, unutilized coal reserves (lignite and sub-bituminous fields of Missouri Plateau and t h e Rocky M o u n t a i n s ) , for example, if d e veloped, could h a v e great impact on the nation's industry, transportation, and shifts in population. This t h e n involves consideration of social factors. With respect t o n o n r e n e w a b l e r e sources, such as metallic and nonmetallic minerals, research is n e e d e d on the origin of minerals, tools to d e t e c t them, distribution over the earth's crust, methods t o u p g r a d e low-grade ores, and substitute materials. The resources of the air, especially moisture, can n o t b e a d e q u a t e l y developed w i t h out k n o w l e d g e of meteorology. U s e of t h e ocean as a source of potable w a t e r and food is likewise d e p e n d e n t o n fundamental research. Unfortunately there is little financial s u p p o r t for this V O L U M E
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Areas of Study I. Competing demands for use of land A. Urban land B. Rural land II. Utilization and Development of Land Resources A. Food and nonwood fibers B. Timber and wood products C. Wildlife, scenic, wilderness and other recreational areas D . Watershed values IH. Water Resources problems A. Supply, use and competitive demand B. Division of responsibility among private groups and various levels of government C. Evaluation and reimbursement IV. Domestic problems of nonfuel minerals A. Tax incentives B. New technology C. The claim-patent system E). The Government role V. Energy resource problems A. Unconventional sources Bi Electricity and synthetic fuels C. Conservation and use VI. U. S. concern with world resources A. Commercial policy B. Investment and development C. Market stabilization VII. Problems in resources research VIII. Patterns of cooperation A. Cooperation at the grass roots B. Wide-- bases of cooperation C. Taking full advantage of research D . The summing up type of research a n d few students are entering the field. Research in the biological sciences is n e e d e d even more than i n t h e physical sciences, the p a n e l felt. Of great importance is the n e e d to rectify t h e lack of correlation b e t w e e n science and technology and t h e social problems they create. W i t h personnel shortages a n d financial limitations it m a y b e necessary to develop a priority system for essential research. With respect to training personnel, the panel noted that the educational system is not providing a d e q u a t e training due in part to the low p a y and low social status accorded teachers in public schools which results in teachers w h o are not of the highest intelligence quotients. Cooperation May Be A r t But Is N o t .Magic
Regardless of t h e merit of proposals to r e m e d y natural resources problems,
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without cooperation between governments at all levels, and interested citizens and groups, little will b e accomplished, the panel on patterns of cooperation noted. Resource scientists, the p a n e l felt, can profit from exchange of knowledge with social scientists on how to organize groups and communicate more effectively. I n short, cooperation m a y be an art, b u t it is not magic. T h e desirability of cooperating at all levels from local t o international was covered in panel discussions. In most cases t h e need for better communications w a s noted. N o agreement was sought nor achieved on such questions as the relative importance of leadership at local, state, regional, or national levels although it was agreed t h a t t h e spark of leadership is essential. It was agreed, however, that solution to resource problems should not be left merely to the growth of science and technology but that private and government bodies must take an active part. Other conclusions reached by the panel were that resources planning and management should not be centralized; public agencies should b e organized so as to b e responsive to public interest; and better intergrated programs are needed to meet complex resource problems. T h e panel felt that resource problems should b e emphasized in youth and adult education, that research on communications techniques was desirable, and that there should b e a continuing study of patterns of cooperation on Federal, state and local levels. Resource Studies W i l l Continue
With the mid-century conference terminated, Resources for the Future, Inc. has tentative future plans shaping u p . With continued support of the Ford Foundation, the organization will prepare a summary report of t h e results of t h e conference. It also is considering the possibility of issuing progress reports on trends in the resources field. Such reports would b e issued each year or every other year. Resources, I n c . is also receiving requests for financial support of various types of research relating to conservation and development of natural resources. Requests to d a t e total $42 million, and range in scope from $275 projects to one totalling $20 million. A limited number of such requests will receive financial backing. Because physical sciences, medicine and public health are receiving considerable financial support a t present, support of social science research and education will b e stressed. Ad hoc committees of experts in different fields will be used to advise on various projects which are proposed. 5169
