ROBERT F. MARSCHNER cally not controlling, since the publishers and secondary services are already committed t o programs involving a high portion of fixed costs, significant among which are computer costs. Thus, products and services can be added a t relatively low marginal costs, yet could, if properly designed, yield high marginal return, both in revenue to the supplier and in transfer of information to t h e scientists. But the field of scientific information is strongly influenced by its source-oriented tradition and hampered by t h e unquantified nature of the value of information, by t h e wide diversity of information needs, by the variety of channels through which information flows, and by the variety of contexts in which any given piece of information appears. More and more, these complex factors must be taken into account in the design of new information products and services in order for them to be accepted by users. If they are not, t h e flow of knowledge will slow down and, in a n increasing number of instances, stop altogether from the pressure of strong economic constraints which are likely to continue for some time. Scientists feel t h a t t h e flow of scientific information has real social value and for it to diminish would be socially undesirable. The current flow rate has been made possible in essence by subsidy, in our journals via page charges, and in our secondary services by public money to finance the process improvements necessary t o maintain t h e service in the face of rising costs and increasing volume. From t h e viewpoint of the user, enough funds have been available from t h e fact of rapid growth, both industrially and educationally. Subsidies to t h e publishers are now diminishing, and the growth of t h e user community is decreasing, so t h e social value of the current flow rate of information must be demonstrated economically in order to be sustained. The key factor affecting dissemination is clearly eco-
nomics-the cost of receiving it (easily measured) compared with the value of having received it (measured with great difficulty at best). This puts scientific information into the same situation as most other commodities, where product performance, package design, distribution methods, and pricing take precedence over social and intellectual considerations. This is a difficult pill for science to swallow, as evidenced by its rather sluggish response t o a situation which has been developing for five years and which was clearly foreseeable five years before t h a t . The additional talents needed for response are not primarily scientific, in my opinion, but rather behavioral. In this regard, scientific information is no different from scientific research, a conclusion t h a t may provide some comfort to the statesmen of science and may make possible a n increasing rate of response from here on.
LITERATURE CITED (11 Lancaster, F. W.. “The Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of Information Retrieval and Dissemination Systems.“ J . Arner. SOC.Inform. Sci. 22, 12 (1971j. ( 2 ) Fazar. W.,Improved Library Effectiveness by Use of the
Planning-Programming-Budgeting System, Special Lihraries, 423-33, Sept. 1969. (3) The Harvard University Library 1966-76, May 1966. (4) The Past and Likely Future of 58 Research Libraries. 19511980-A Statistical Study of Growth and Change, 0. C . Dunn, W. F. Siehert, and J . A . Scheuneman, Purdue University, 1967. (5) Panton, D., and Renken, B. G.. “What do Chemists Read,” C‘hem. Brit. 7, 18-22 (19711.
Papers Presented at ACS Meetings R O B E R T F MARSCHNER Research and Development Department, American Oil C o , Whiting, Ind 46394
Received October 8, 197 1 National meetings of the American Chemical Society have provided a forum for presentation of information since before 1900. Numbers of papers presented at these and other-than-national meetings are tabulated by year and by subject. National m e e t ings have grown 5 % per year, but other meetings have averaged 14% growth over the past decade. M o s t of the recent growth has involved t h e disciplinal divisions of the ACS rather than the interdisciplinal or the mission divisions. Over the years, meeting registrants per paper has risen from 5 t o above 10 and dropped back t o 5. Further changes are imminent, and the soundness of Society policy will depend upon correct interpretations of them.
Research comes t o light a n d contributes t o the progress of science through t h e papers t h a t are published in t h e journals. T h a t statement is probably more right t h a n wrong, but it is certainly not t h e whole story. Traditionally, research is “trial marketed” before publication: t h e author first presents his results a t a meeting, in exchange for informed comments, and his plans for publication may be influenced considerably by them. Actually, he may have discussed his findings with others still earlier, or revealed his plans in requests for financial support even 204
Journal of Chemical Documentation. Vol. 1 1, No. 4, 1 9 7 1
before the work was begun. But these were privileged contacts, whereas anyone interested can attend the meetings. Kational meetings of the American Chemical Society are one such forum for exchanging research results and informed comments. Subjects are portioned among Divisions of the Society, and programs are supplied t o all members through Chemical and Engineering News. Thousands of members regularly attend hundreds of papers at every national meeting, but most now feel t h a t big national meetings no longer answer their needs, a n d should give way to
PAPERS P R E S E N T E D AT ACS MEETING "something better." Certainly such a critical problem deserves analysis in search for possible solutions, especially as the Society approaches its centennial year of 1976.
NAT10 NAL M EETl N GS Table I lists papers presented by Divisions at national ACS meetings year-by-year during four twenty-year periods that correspond approximately to four stages in the development of national meetings. Although the first meeting of the Society was held in Newport, Rhode Island, in 1890, the future pattern was really set by the "World's Congress of Chemists," which was held in Chicago in connection with the Columbian Exposition of 1893. Not for a decade would its 76 papers be exceeded. and not for half a century would all its nine subject matter areas become Divisions. But when the time came, the pattern was there. From the second 20 years the present structure emerged. There were eight Divisions in 1910 and 19 in 1930. By then, Organic Chemistry and Physical and Inorganic Chemistry both exceeded 100 papers a year and "general" papers had all but disappeared. The third 20 years grew in size rather than in variety. Three Divisions passed 200 papers a year. Analytical was founded, and Dye and Leather were replaced by Literature and Polymer. There were several adjustments in names. The last 20 years have still seen beginnings, growth, and adjustments, but not to the extent of earlier periods. Most divisions have grown in numbers but slowly in percentage. The impression is one of maturity. A general picture of ACS national meetings is offered by Figure 1. S u m b e r s of papers are expressed as three-year moving averages to temper discontinuities associated with unusually large or small programs in certain cities. This averaging period was selected to accommodate to the Chicago-Atlantic City-New York cycle of fall meetings that prevailed during the 1950's and 1960's. Around 1900. the number of papers presented sprouted at a rate of 35% per year. By 1906 the demand had been satisfied, and a rate of increase of 5% per year is shown thereafter. Two large deviations from this rate are associ-
o
m
20
30
10
50
eo
70
eo
90
I
I
I
I
I
ated with the two world wars. World War I was characterized by a small decline followed by a large recovery, whereas World War I1 was characterized by a large decline followed by a small recovery. Figure 1 shows little evidence for any influence of federal support of research. The best case t h a t can be made is the defensive one t h a t the decline of the early 1960's might have been worse without it. But common sense argues t h a t a n expenditure of tens of billions of dollars must have had more effect than that. An obvious answer is t h a t many chemical-research papers are presented at other meetings. Since World War I1 especially, the ACS national meetings have had increasing competition from other types of meetings within the Society, as well as from parallel national meetings of other societies. Especially in the fields t h a t chemistry shares with other disciplines-chemical engineering, chemical physics, geochemistry, molecular biology-competition is inevitable.'
OTHER MEETINGS Inside competition for national meetings is presented in Table 11, which lists numbers of papers presented annually before divisional symposia, local section symposia, meettings-in-miniature, and regional meetings. Division symposia have a long tradition, National Colloid having started in 1926 and National Organic in 1927. Local section symposia have always been dominated by analytical chemistry, particularly the Pittsburgh Conference. Meetingsin-miniature are usually run by local sections but involve a variety of subjects. Regional meetings began with Southwestern in 1943 and nearly all local sections now participate cooperatively in one or more of the ten extant. These alternative meetings have in effect been taking part in a long-term, large-scale experiment to determine how national meetings are best supplemented. The results are shown in Figure 2. Five patterns all started nearly even with about 100 papers around 1945: The "meeting-in-print" satisfied no one and was never repeated, once wartime restrictions on conventions were lifted.
100
I
/ I
1
20%
2oaaC
200
i 1876
1080
Figure 1.
1891
1908
1916
1920
i
I
I
1
1936
1946
1956
1986
Papers presented at national meetings
loot
1970
1940
Flgure 2.
1960
1900
1970
Papers presented at meetings other than national
Journal of Chemical Documentation. Vol 1 1, No 4,197 1
205
ROBERT F. MARSCHNER
0 .-+m
z
+
z
Meetings-in-miniature rose 20% per year to 250 papers in 1952, but since then have fallen below 100. Divisional symposia rose 6% per year-about the same rate as national meetings-and barely reached 250 papers by 1968. Local section symposia, after a few years at a lush 30% rate, climbed at 4% to 400 papers by 1968. Regional meetings grew at a full 20% annual rate, except for a five-year span in the late 1950's. Thus regional meetings outdistanced the other patterns by almost a n order of magnitude. The 2142 papers presented at nine regional locations in 1970 exceeded the num206
Journal of Chemical Documentation, Vol 1 1 , No, 4. 197 1
ber presented at any single national meeting other than the 2387 at New York in the fall of 1969. Although the regional meetings now compete sucessfully with any one national meeting, the two national meetings per year still draw more papers than all other meetings combined: Two national meetings Other ACS meetings Total papers presented 90Other
196i
1968
1969
1970
3688
4116
3726
3535
2113
2762
-2
2885
5801 37
6868
6392
40
42
6420 45
PAPERS P R E S E N T E D AT ACS MEETING
But if the percentage of papers presented at other meetings continues to climb at this rate, national meetings will soon lose their preeminence. Figure 1 supports t h a t prediction. As a group, other meetings have been growing a t an annual rate of 1470,compared with the long-range 5% for national meetings, and perhaps 870 for national and other meetings combined. An additional pattern is provided by the American Institute of Chemical Engineers, as a n example of naticnal meetings of a separate organization. Actually, two to four AIChE meetings are held annually to give the totals shown in Figure 1. From 1951 until the numbers of papers levelled
off at about 650 in 1966, growth was 13%-nearly as fast as non-national ACS meetings. In scope, the AIChE somewhat resembles a group of allied ACS divisions, so t h a t a rate nearer the 6% of divisional symposia might have been expected. SI G NI FICANCE The various growth rates can be given a variety of individual explanations, but three predominant factors probably explain the major characteristics of the rise. Initial growth rates of 30 to 40% represent unrestricted expansion of a comparatively unlimited supply of papers into new Journal of Chemical Documentation, Vol. 1 1 , No. 4, 1971
207
ROBERT F. MARSCHNER Table II. Numbersa of PaDers Presented at Other Meetings 1 9 4 1 - 1 9 5 0 Beginnings 1941
Division Symposia National Colloid National Organic Christmas Chem Eng Summer Analytical Summer Medicinal Rubber Others Total Local Sections Pittsburgh Analytical Delaware Chemistry Others
42
43
44
?
b
b
h
b
-
b
-
b
b
b
b
47
48
49
50
28 12
31 -
20
21
0 -
17
30 12 24 15 25 159
28 19 13 12 46
34
8 45
__
~
84
94
b
b
178 35
b
b
(40)
(50)
66 6' 133
100 8' 185
125 8' (200) b
88
52 85
~
Total Meetings-in-Miniature Total Regional Meetings Southeastern Southwestern Northwestern Others
50 50 97
(35) b ~
~
~
(50) 9' (100)
12' 49
~
Total Total papers presented
b
b
31
~
140
b
b
~
100 78 (20)
~
43 267
197 44 1
88 465
137 581
198 563
55
56
57
58
59
60
30 16 9 13 28 18
38 12 13 11 -
62 16 19 17
28 12 12
-
32 12 16 14 -
29 12
54 8
26 58
133
114
136
198
115
183
112
127 23 45
122 19 76
183 32 110
187 32 33
131 31 60
152 52 44
160 43 104
(60)
(60)
1951
52
53
54
24 11 20 15 -
31 20 13 16 23 50 18
29
(70)
(35) 164
(70)
1 9 5 1 -1 960 Waiting
Division Symposia National Colloid National Organic Christmas Chem Eng Summer Analytical Summer Medicinal Physical & Inorganic Rubber Others
-
-
12
14 20 27 16 15
Total Local Sections Pittsburgh Analytical Delaware Chemistry Others ~
Total Meetings-in-Miniature Total Regional Meetings Southeastern Southwestern Northwestern Others
__
~
900
248
307
4' 168
7c 291
238
201
190 117 58 139
103 99 65 54
187
111 114
122
81 449
269 884
Journal of Chemical Documentation, Vol. 1 1, No. 4. 1971
504 1045
66 211
400 905
517 1239
~
321 1078
617 1259
5c
118
63
112
20 27 18 23
~
222
presentation media-chemical papers into national meetings in the 1890's and analytical papers into sectional symposia in the 1940's. Once the demand has been met, however, the rate slows down to the 5% or so that more nearly reflects the rate of increase of supply of papers. Intermediate rates of 10 to 20% result when popular types of meetings get more than their share of papers. Rates around 10% could mean taking over most of the rising supply, whereas 20% could mean cutting into other meetings. 208
~__
252 4' 192 d
21
~
325 11c 296
68 304
__
38
217 8' 210
d
286 781
__
22 12 15 24 35 41
195 7' 287
~
Total Total papers presented
16 23 24
34
119 214 96 61 ~
490 1147
480 1313
Remembering t h a t meetings provide a forum for an exchange between speaker and audience, numbers of papers are the supply aspect of a problem in supply and demand. Figure 3 shows t h a t the ratio of meeting registrants to papers has fluctuated widely over the years. From 4 to 5 to 8 before World War 11, the ratio climbed over 10 and then above 15 in the 1940's as audiences increased and papers did not. It remained a t 8 and 7 for nearly 20 years thereafter, but has now dropped to 5 . This low ratio is not a
PAPERS P R E S E N T E D AT ACS MEETING Table 11. Continued 1961 -1 970 Growth Division Symposia National Colloid Sational Organic Christmas Chemical Engineering Summer Chemical Engineering Summer Analytical Summer Medicinal Summer Physical Summer Inorganic Biennial Polymer Rubber Others
1961
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
36 12 11
59
22
36 11 18 18 13
67
65
14 23 28
45 10 16 8 14
59
14
39 12 25 12 17
b
13
11 13 14 25
23
b
20 20 28 18 25 8 20 53 14
19 b
21 (10)
18 63 56
35
12 13 39
0
0
0
104
274
163
149
205
222 37 51 25 8
185
226 48 56
200
200 42 8
93
14
55 24
66 70
8 24
14
11 11
(10) 9
Total Meetings-in-Miniature Tot a1 Regional Meetings Southeastern Southwestern Sorthwestern Oklahoma Tetra Metropolitan Midwestern Western Great Lakes Middle Atlantic Northeast Central Others
265
216
300
260
300
92
294 7 85
10 11 0
_
97
-
_
~ 206
(250)
300
314
-
100
80
87
12 8
6
6
26 427 3' 66
~~
357 3' 106
288 2' 90
352 3' 82
355 4c 150
272 4c 128
373 3' 202
406 1' 90
406 4' 110
386 4c
241
206 210
230 220 29 52 131
171 184 88 62 128
317
216 218 155 72
372 242 127
243 369 153 53
155 89 112 219
155 248
161 114 105 301 260 177
339 228 232 64 170 155 328 163 308
d b
119
b
85
138
326 893
673 1325
d
133 62 144 138 178
257
ai
700 d
191 94 141 221 109 311 225 150
52
__
~~
Total Total papers presented
-
12 46 120
__
~~
10 12 12
-
48 72
___
~~
Total Local Section Symposia Pittsburgh Analytical Delaware Science Eastern Analytical Midwest Chemical Southeast Texas Hydrocarbon Joint Technical Others
-
10 13 16 13 13
662 1259
685 1339
972 1577
_ _ _ _
1196 2036
1401 2113
~
1936 2752
1987 2666
2142 2885
"Xiumbers in parentheses are estimates. 'Meeting presumably held, but no information located. 'Kumben of meetings, not papers. qncluded ,n Southeastem,
characteristic of national meetings alone, as recent regional meetings have averaged below 4. Clearly the demand for papers has switched from low to high and back to low over the past 40years. Divisions of the ACS fall rather well into three large classes: those dealing solely with the chemical disciplines, those sharing subject-matter areas with other disciplines, and those t h a t are concerned with materials.' In today's terminology, the materials group would be classified as those concerned with mission research. Distribution of papers among these three classes since 1900 is shown in Figure 4. At first, papers were 80% chemical and 20% mission, but during the first quarter of the century, shared papers grew to 20% and mission papers gained another 20%. Since 1925, however, t h e trends have reversed: chemical papers rose from less t h a n 40% to nearly 6070,a t the expense of mission papers until 1955, and a t the expense of shared papers thereafter. Even a cursory examination of programs of ACS meetings other than national also shows a preponderance of papers
60th ANNIVERSARV M E
NATIONAL MEETINGS
1900
1910
Figure 3
1920
1930
1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
Meeting registrants per paper presented
Journal of Chemical Documentation. Vol. 1 1, No 4, 1971
209
DAVID M KIEFER I
I
I
I
I
1980
1970
publishing would seem t o be lessening for the researcher, just as it already has for the audience, judging from t h e diminishing numbers who now attend. Levelling off of federal support of research will have pronounced effects upon presentation of papers at meetings. Nearly all curves bend downwards over t h e past two years. How far they drop will depend upon t h e opposing effects of efficiency and inflation on t h e conduct of graduate research. The figures will deserve close study, for upon a correct analysis will depend the soundness of Society policy for its second hundred years.
SHARED DISCIPLINES
MATERIALS I’MISSION’I
20
Q
c
1900
1910
1920
1930
CHEMICAL DISCIPLINES
1940
1960
1980
ACKNOWLEDGMENT Figure 4.
Distribution of papers among classes of divisions
in the chemical disciplines. Mushrooming regional meetings account for more t h a n all others combined, and a further analysis of these is under way. Clearly, chemistry has grown long on papers, a n d longest on papers in t h e chemical disciplines, rather t h a n in interdisciplinary areas or in mission research. The benefits of presentation before
William L. Bulkley of t h e American Oil Company provided data on early AIChE meetings, and A. T. Winstead of t h e American Chemical Society filled some of t h e gaps in t h e data on national ACS meetings.
LITERATURE CITED (1) Marschner, R. F., J. Chem. Doc. 3 , 4 2 (1963).
As ses sing New Technology * DAVID M KIEFER American Chemical Society, 1 155 Sixteenth St , N W Washington. D C 20036
,
Received SeDtember 30, 197 1
Effective assessment of n e w technology requires a n ability t o foretell where that technology is leading and t o analyze h o w it will impinge upon society and t h e over-all environment. Yet technological forecasting is a n unproved discipline, while indicators of social change and standards or goals against which social progress can be measured are lacking for t h e most part. Technology assessment obviously must b e broadly multidisciplinary. It seems no less certain that it will put n e w burdens on t h e handling of scientific information and create a demand for more information than is n o w generally available on t h e w a y technology interacts with society as a whole.
About eight years ago, in speaking to a gathering of distinguished scientists, President Kennedy commented: “Every time you scientists make a major invention. we politicians have to invent a new institution to cope with it.” T h a t pretty well sums up the idea behind technology assessment, a concept now increasingly in vogue. Technology assessment, in theory at least, is a n idea t h a t seems easy to understand and difficult to fault. It is a reasoned response to t h e stress t h a t a rapidly changing and expanding technology puts on our complex and increasingly industrialized, urbanized, and densely populated society. It is a n attempt at making the process of coping with innovation and technological development more systematic and rational. It would do this by putting t h e machinery needed for t h e task into motion not after a new invention has been thrust upon a n unsuspecting world but simultaneously with t h a t event. There are other ways t o look at t h e technology assessment
‘Presented before the Division of Chemical Literature. 162nd Meeting. ACS. LVashington. D. C.. September 14, 1971.
210
Journal of Chemical Documentation, Vol. 1 1, No. 4. 1 9 7 1
concept. as well: It can be viewed as a mixture of early warning signals and visions of opportunity; as a device for protecting man from his own technological creativity; as a formal mechanism for allocating scientific resources, setting technological priorities, and seeking more benign alternatives for technologies already in use; and as a n attempt t o control and direct emerging technologies so as to maximize t h e public benefits while minimizing public risks. What could appear less controversial? No wonder, then, that t h e idea has caught on or t h a t it is winning over more and more people, especially on Capitol Hill and within some of the federal agencies, in the academic world, or from public interest groups, who are anxious to try to put it t o practical work-and the sooner the better. They are convinced t h a t if we don’t try it, not only will many of our present problems become deeper but we will be faced with a n expanding array of newly emerging problems which will only make those of today pale in comparison. J u s t what would be the best way t o implement technology assessment is not quite clear, of course. While we are swept u p in t h e onrush of technological change, we don’t
