Polyester fibers recover worldwide Recovery in the polyester fiber business film capacity at about 350,000 metric is spreading worldwide. With this re- tons. Capacity utilization in polyester surgence, a concurrent upswing has gotten under way in intermediates for fiber has fully recovered in the U.S. polyesters and in basic p-xylene. Gains and in Japan. In Western Europe, in polyester fiber demand will run where fiber demand declined somewhat about 20% in 1976, with smaller gains earlier than in the U.S., recovery has been slower, particularly for staple. to come in 1977 and 1978. In 1975, worldwide polyester fiber These are some of the conclusions in a new study on the worldwide supply production fell 2%, the first decrease and demand outlook for p-xylene and ever recorded, the Hyplan study says. its derivatives completed by Hyplan Capacity utilization in the U.S. was at A.G. De Witt & Co., of Houston, and about 50% as 1975 started but recovParpinelli TECNON, of Milan, Italy, ered to about 90% in August 1975 and jointly own Hyplan, whose registered has held at this level since. DMT and TPA consumption will foloffice is in Liechtenstein. Among other conclusions from the low the fortunes of polyester fiber exsurvey is an increase in prices of p-xy- cept at different rates. TPA demand lene, dimethyl terephthalate (DMT), will increase faster than will DMT deterephthalic acid (TPA), and polyester, mand because of TPA's production even though worldwide capacity will cost advantage over DMT. New capacmeet demands easily. In the U.S., ity has emphasized TPA. The economp-xylene prices will increase from the ic advantage of TPA over DMT may current 16 cents a lb during the year. lessen in the future. World trade in p-xylene and its deHowever, the current European equivalent price at about 19 cents a lb may rivatives will ebb and flow with the relative changes in national economies. Better dyeing techniques will help weaken slightly. World capacity to produce p-xylene For example, p-xylene exports to Euboost polypropylene fiber markets in 1976 totals about 3.9 million metric rope from the U.S. dried up in 1974 as close. Their point is that cheap propyl- tons, estimates Dr. L. Wayne Feller of domestic U.S. demand increased and ene will be too much of a good thing. De Witt & Co. This capacity is equiva- limits to mixed xylene feedstock Its very price advantage will induce lent to a DMT capacity of 4 million supplies developed in U.S. refineries. Then in early 1975, U.S. exports innew uses—for example, direct oxida- metric tons and a TPA capacity of 1.6 creased strongly as European polyester tion to four-carbon products. This in- million metric tons. creased demand will raise the propylRelative polyester fiber, film, and fiber producers bought p-xylene to ene price, wiping out its advantage. resin capacities total more than the force the xylene price down in Europe. By contrast, the majority opinion is DMT and TPA capacities to supply Late in 1975, U.S. exports again that propylene for the rest of this dec- them, according to Dr. Charles W. dropped as the U.S. fiber demand reade and beyond probably will pose ab- Fryer of Parpinelli TECNON. This covery took up the domestic surplus. solutely no problem to polypropylene does not mean a shortage of DMT and Soon, U.S. exports will again go to Euproducers. More will be coming as co- TPA, because fiber capacity is consid- rope as European fiber producers atproduct from steam crackers making erably larger than the 1976 demand. tempt to soften European p-xylene ethylene as heavier feedstocks force He estimates worldwide fiber capacity prices. But by 1977, Europe will be exD this new type of production. More like- at about 5.3 million metric tons and porting the chemical to the U.S. ly will be available in refinery streams, the traditional primary source, as propylene alkylate becomes less attractive Capacity utilization is improving for xylenes for use in gasoline as a consequence of Per cent3 increased use of unleaded gas. This refinery propylene will be available as 90 polymer-grade material at a cost inMixed xylenes fluenced by three variables. These cost p-xylene components are the basic fuel value of Polyester propylene, the cost of purifying propylene in the refinery, and whatever share of refinery costs is assigned to propylene as a coproduct of other manufacturing steps. 70 With no monomer supply problems at all and only intermittent polymerization capacity problems at worst, polypropylene growth would be limited 60 only by market expansion. This favorable situation leads industry observers to their growth rate forecasts for polypropylene over the next five years. A 50 rate of 20% based on 1975 probably will prove too high. Consumer buying habits seem to have become more conservative, lowering general demand 0 growth for manufactured products. The 1975 1976 1977 a Capacity utilization worldwide (annual production divided by annual capacity). Source: Hyplan consensus rate around 14% annually could prove more correct come 1980. D
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C&ENFeb. 16, 1976
