Precautionary principle challenges U.S. policy, workshop finds Although the precautionary principle has found its way into at least 15 multinational agreements since making its debut in the 1980s, its application remains highly controversial, especially in the United States. The Harvard Center for Risk Analysis convened a workshop in June to initiate a dialogue on how the precautionary principle might be refined or replaced so that it can be applied more effectively in environmental policies. The latest ongoing international row over so-called "Frankenstein foods," the disparaging term used by some observers to describe foods that contain genetically modified organisms (GMOs), which several European grocery store chains have yanked from their shelves {ES&T 1999, 33(5), 186A-187A), is a case in point. The GMO debate mirrors the quagmire surrounding the precautionary principle's definition and its varying interpretations. Its core definition, assigned at the 1992 Rio Declaration on Environment and Development, states that in situations where serious or irreversible damage is possible, the lack of full scientific certainty should not hold up action to prevent environmental degradation today. In other words, first, do no harm. But the GMO controversy poses the question: How much precaution is justified in policymaking decisions that could affect multiple generations and
DID YOU KNOW? Natural disasters: From 1975 to 1994, natural disasters killed more than 24,000 people and cost more than $500 billion. (Source: National Science Foundation, 1999)
large geographical ranges—issues relating to biotechnology, global climate change, or chemical regulation, for instance? How much effort should be spent to find alternatives? And what if these alternatives turn out to be worse than the original solution? These were some of the questions raised at the workshop, which also looked at how the principle already is or might be incorporated into U.S. environmental policy and law, as well as reasons why its application may not always be justified, such as when the costs of precautionary action are so great, they exceed the benefits of reduction even if a hazard exists. In the case of biotechnology, "the precautionary principle doesn't help us much . . . because it doesn't have the legally defensible criteria that agencies need to make decisions," said Gary Marchant, an environmental attorney with Kirkland & Ellis in Washington, D.C. Although GMOs could potentially cause irreversible harm if they are able to reproduce, migrate, and mutate, the actual risk, if any, is very speculative, and the technological benefits of using this biological material in place of pesticides could be immense, he added. Hence, the GMO issue may call for a more rational sciencebased approach, but good risk management also requires paying close attention to what the public is saying, which lends credence to precautionary measures, said Joyce Tait, director of Scottish Universities Policy Research and Advice Network. And the groundswell of public opposition to GM foods in Europe has begun to sweep across the United States as well. At a national summit on the hazards of GM foods held in Washington, DC., in mid-June, an alliance of scientists, farmers, financial investors, religious leaders, and consumer groups released a petition and draft legislation calling on Congress to require mandatory labeling of GM foods and more stringent safety testing of the technology's potential long-term effects.
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Because of the precautionary principle's general nature, however, some scientists and policy makers are baffled by how to apply it. "The devil with the precautionary principle is in its application. It's very much oversimplified and doesn't say what kinds of regulations are required," said Michael Glantz, a senior scientist with the National Center for Atmospheric Research, who is investigating how the principle may apply to global climate change policy. Joel Tickner, a research associate with the Lowell (Massachusetts) Center for Sustainable Production, disagreed. "To start getting down to specifics loses the whole spirit" of the precautionary principle. Although he agreed that the principle needs to be defined better than it is now, Tickner advocated following the Europeans' approach of "backcasting" in applying the principle. "What they do is set far-ranging goals and work backwards—[as in] how are we going to achieve this goal with minimum disruption to society?" he said. In the United States, protective measures are implemented through quantitative regulations and court challenges, whereas Europeans are more flexible in their approach. Tickner noted the Danish Environmental Protection Agency's move in April to ban phthalates in baby toys as an example. They did not do a quantitative risk assessment because they did not feel it was necessary, Tickner said. "They saw there was a potential for effect; children are exposed; they're susceptible and defenseless; and there are alternatives. That's all they needed to know." As for U.S. chemical regulations, some, such as the former Delaney clause that required absolute safety in pesticide residues on foods, do follow the zero-risk approach of the precautionary principle. (The 1996 Food Quality Protection Act replaced the zerotolerance requirement with a standard dictating "reasonable certainty of no harm.") But others, specifically the Toxic Substances Control Act (TSCA), are
the mirror image of the precautionary principle, said Wendy Wagner, associate law professor at Case Western Reserve University in Cleveland, Ohio. Despite TSCA's goals, many of which are precautionary in nature, actual implementation does not follow a precautionary approach. "The precautionary principle calls for regulatory intervention when we know nothing, but TSCA doesn't begin [to take effect] until we have some knowledge" of harm, Wagner said. For
example, although chemical manufacturers are required to turn in results of any product testing, they are not required to conduct tests in the first place. "EPA has the authority to require additional testing from manufacturers, but an observable threshold effect is the prerequisite before testing can be required of any chemicals not produced in large quantities. To ban, the burden on EPA is higher still," Wagner said. Yet, despite roadblocks, some new initiatives seem to be consis-
tent with application of the precautionary principle in chemical regulations. As an example, Wagner cited EPA's high production volume chemical testing program, which encourages companies to voluntarily conduct toxicity testing on chemicals produced in volumes greater than 1 million pounds per year (ES&T 1999, 33(1), 15A). Another objective being pushed by environmental organizations is to require warning labels on products that have not been tested. —KRIS CHRISTEN
Predicted summer water shortages attributed to climate change Global climate change will reduce the amount of western water stored as snow, leading to increased risk of winter flooding and summer water shortages, announced scientists at a May conference on climate change, sponsored by the American Water Resources Association. Some experts attending the meeting contended that local water managers are unwilling and ill-prepared to reduce the vulnerability of their water supply systems to extreme events triggered by global warming. Global change modelers agree that average winter temperatures in the Pacific Northwest will increase by about 2.7-3.4 °C over the next 50 years, according to Dennis Lettenmaier, civil and environmental engineering professor at the University of Washington-Seattle. This temperature rise will drive the snow line further up the mountains: By 2055, the area covered by snow could drop by nearly half, predicted Lettenmaier and his colleagues. In theory, said Peter Gleick, director of the Pacific Institute in Oakland, Calif., local water managers could adapt to the changes by increasing winter storage capacity and conserving water. For instance, last year water managers at the Folsom Dam on the American River upstream from Sacramento responded to predictions of increased runoff from El Nino by creating extra reservoir storage space, thus preventing enormous damages. But the problem is that modelers are not providing managers with predic-
If climate change modelers' predictions come true, water managers in the West will no longer be able to rely on winter snow to provide summer water.
tions of extreme events, and managers are uninterested in planning for events that are uncertain and more than five years in the future, Gleick said. In the West, snowmelt currently accounts for 70% of stream flow, and storage of water in the snow pack is a reservoir that water managers do not have to build, Lettenmaier explained. The higher winter temperatures mean more precipitation will fall as rain and result in larger stream flows earlier in the spring and smaller flows in summer. "More rain and less snow will increase the risk of flooding in winter and supply shortages in the summer," Gleick concluded. This will complicate the management of reservoirs already stressed by rapid population growth, demands from agriculture, and reduced storage capacity due to sedimentation. Gerald Hansler, retired executive
director of the Delaware River Basin Commission, countered that "natural climate aberrations will outweigh effects caused by global climate change." Nevertheless, managers' planning assumptions based on past climate records need to be reworked, he noted. For instance, he said, water management in the Colorado River basin has been based on the climate record of the last 50 years, but new research using tree rings has shown those years to be the wettest of the last few hundred. "The fact that the modelers brought up the issue of reduced snow pack and extreme events was a good wake-up call" for water managers, Hansler concluded. The conference proceedings will become part of the "U.S. National Assessment: The Potential Consequences of Climate Variability and Change," to be presented to Congress in lanuary 2000. —JANET PELLEY
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