Scientific Measurements and Data in Public Policy-Making - ACS

Chapter 3

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Scientific Measurements and Data in Public Policy-Making Thomas H. Moss Case Western Reserve University, Cleveland, OH 44106

Sound technical measurements and the integrity of data must seem at times to be almost entirely irrelevant to the course of public policy decision-making. Recent experience in the politics of clean air, acid rain, toxic substances control, pesticide regulatory legislation, as well as other debates, indicates a more tempered view, however. On closer analysis the role of scientific measurement is seen as a vital one, but one which requires a sense of timing and perception of the dynamics of human behavior in seeking solutions to challenging problems. Technical measurements and t h e r e s u l t i n g d a t a a r e used i n two d i s t i n c t ways i n t h e contemporary American p o l i c y d e c i s i o n - m a k i n g process. On t h e one hand i s t h e i r r o l e i n t h e s y s t e m a t i c b u i l d i n g of a body o f knowledge w h i c h i d e a l l y becomes t h e b a s i s f o r p u b l i c policy. On t h e o t h e r hand i s t h e i r use as weapons i n a war o f words, o r c o n t e s t f o r public attention and s u p p o r t . At times one or the other of these functions may seem t o dominate, b u t i t i s my t h e s i s i n t h i s e s s a y t h a t i t i s e x t r e m e l y r i s k y f o r a l l concerned t o n e g l e c t e i t h e r aspect. Beyond t h a t , my own e x p e r i e n c e t e l l s me t h a t p a r t i c i p a n t s i n p u b l i c p o l i c y d i s c u s s i o n s can, t o a c o n s i d e r a b l e degree, create t h e i r own r e a l i t y from t h e c h o i c e between these two extremes. I t i s the r e a l i z a t i o n of t h i s r e l a t i v e l y strong degree o f p e r s o n a l c o n t r o l o v e r t h e n a t u r e o f the debate which i s so i m p o r t a n t t o p a r t i c i p a n t s . By e x e r t i n g that control wisely, p a r t i c i p a n t s c a n c r e a t e a p r o c e s s i n which t h e y have c o n f i d e n c e ; by u s i n g i t unwisely, i n c o n s i s t e n t l y , or l a z i l y , they can f i n d t h e m s e l v e s i n a p r o c e s s i n w h i c h t h e y w i l l f e e l v i c t i m i z e d , f r u s t r a t e d , and h e l p l e s s .

Case H i s t o r i e s of Measurement and S c i e n t i f i c Data i n P o l i t i c a l Decision-Making: What a r e examples t o j u s t i f y

t h i s i n t e r p r e t a t i o n of the regulatory

0097-6156/88/0361 -0070S06.00/0 © 1 9 8 8 American Chemical Society

Currie; Detection in Analytical Chemistry ACS Symposium Series; American Chemical Society: Washington, DC, 1987.


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Scientific Measurements and Data in Public Policy-Making

climate? C l e a r l y my own w i l l be based on i n t e r p r e t a t i o n s o f h i s t o r y and m o t i v a t i o n s w i t h which some may disagree. However i n t h e c a s e s I mention below I c o u l d c l e a r l y see p o i n t s a t w h i c h one p a t h i n the c o u r s e o f p u b l i c p o l i c y debate become dominant o v e r s e v e r a l p e r f e c t l y f e a s i b l e a l t e r n a t i v e s , o r i n which t h e debate a b r u p t l y changed c o u r s e . Whether my own i n t e r p r e t a t i o n i s c o r r e c t o r n o t , my aim i s t o a t l e a s t c h a l l e n g e t h e r e a d e r t o come up w i t h an a l t e r n a t i v e i n t e r p r e t a t i o n t o h e l p r a t i o n a l i z e t h e c u r i o u s t w i s t s o f t h i n k i n g on p u b l i c p o l i c y . The c l a s s i c example i s perhaps t h e l o n g - r u n n i n g debate o v e r t h e f l a g s h i p o f U.S. e n v i r o n m e n t a l law: the Clean A i r A c t . In a p i o n e e r i n g 1970 e f f o r t t o e s t a b l i s h and e n f o r c e m e a n i n g f u l l i m i t s on a i r p o l l u t i o n , t h e f r a m e r s o f the l e g i s l a t i o n chose human h e a l t h as t h e key and absolute c r i t e r i a f o r enforcement of standards (1): "In the Committee discussions, considerable concern was expressed r e g a r d i n g the use of the concept of technical feasibility as the basis of ambient air standards. The Committee d e t e r m i n e d t h a t 1) the h e a l t h o f p e o p l e i s more i m p o r t a n t t h a n t h e q u e s t i o n of whether t h e e a r l y achievement o f ambient a i r q u a l i t y s t a n d a r d s p r o t e c t i v e of h e a l t h i s t e c h n i c a l l y f e a s i b l e : and 2) t h e growth o f p o l l u t i o n l o a d i n many a r e a s , even w i t h the application of available t e c h n o l o g y , would still be d e l e t e r i o u s t o p u b l i c h e a l t h . T h e r e f o r e , t h e Committee d e t e r m i n e d t h a t e x i s t i n g s o u r c e s o f p o l l u t a n t s e i t h e r s h o u l d meet t h e s t a n d a r d s o f t h e law o r be c l o s e d down...." There were many u n d e r s t a n d a b l e reasons f o r the c h o i c e of t h i s r h e t o r i c at that time. Concern f o r human s u f f e r i n g seemed t o dominate p u b l i c attitudes, and non-human e c o l o g i c a l effects seemed much more s u b t l e and distant. Several well publicized urban a i r p o l l u t i o n e p i s o d e s i n Europe and t h e U.S. had vividly shown t h e c o n n e c t i o n of a c u t e a i r p o l l u t i o n and human h e a l t h impacts t h r o u g h t h e d r a m a t i c i n c r e a s e s i n h o s p i t a l a d m i s s i o n s and deaths from a v a r i e t y of c a r d i a c and pulmonary c a u s e s . On any less a b s o l u t e s c a l e , however, l e g i s l a t i v e l e a d e r s were w e l l aware t h a t air q u a l i t y m o n i t o r i n g and e p i d e m i o l o g i c a l d a t a were h o p e l e s s l y i n a d e q u a t e t o demonstrate the s u b t l e t i e s o f l o w - l e v e l cause and effect, or t o e s t a b l i s h anything l i k e reasonable dose-response curves, t h r e s h h o l d s , or to v a l i d a t e details of i n d i v i d u a l and s y n e r g i s t i c e f f e c t s of v a r i o u s p o l l u t a n t s . The i m p l e m e n t a t i o n of the 1958 "Delaney C l a u s e " (2) o f t h e Food A d d i t i v e Amendments t o the F e d e r a l Food, Drug and Cosmetic A c t was a l s o w i d e l y c o n s i d e r e d a t t h i s time as a p o s i t i v e p o l i t i c a l precedent. The Delaney C l a u s e was interpreted f o r many y e a r s as banning a b s o l u t e l y , from any f o o d consumed by man, any c h e m i c a l found t o i n d u c e c a n c e r i n a n i m a l s , w i t h o u t r e f e r e n c e t o dose. Its straightforward language made r e g u l a t o r y a c t i o n simple and prompt, and i t was w i d e l y c r e d i t e d w i t h a d d i n g a v e r y p o s i t i v e l e v e l of p r o t e c t i o n f o r t h e U.S. f o o d consumer. Only i n t h e l a t e s e v e n t i e s and e i g h t i e s d i d i t b e g i n t o be a p p a r e n t t h a t d e t e c t i o n l i m i t s were expanding so r a p i d l y t h a t c h e m i c a l t r a c e s f a r below t h e c l e a r c a n c e r - c a u s i n g l e v e l s c o u l d be r o u t i n e l y d e t e c t e d . In


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t h i s new t e c h n i c a l w o r l d , t h e r e was much l e s s u t i l i t y t o the s t r a t e g y o f assuming a d e c r e m e n t a l human h e a l t h impact as a r e s u l t o f any c o n n e c t i o n whatsoever o f t h e c h e m i c a l t o a n i m a l cancer. (3) S i m i l a r l y , t h e s t r a t e g y o f s i m p l i s t i c a l l y f o c u s i n g on human h e a l t h t o t h e e x c l u s i o n o f o t h e r a i r p o l l u t i o n i m p a c t s , and o f c o n s i d e r i n g i t as an a b s o l u t e w i t h no a c c e p t a b l e l e v e l o f r i s k , a t f i r s t seemed t o work m a r v e l o u s l y i n t h e c l e a n a i r d e c i s i o n - m a k i n g process. The C l e a n A i r l e g i s l a t i o n was p e r e n n i a l l y p o p u l a r w i t h the p u b l i c , and enforcement was v i g o r o u s i n t h e '70's. Major b e n e f i t s were a l s o c l e a r : numbers o f days o f some t y p e s o f urban p o l l u t i o n e p i s o d e s d e c l i n e d d r a m a t i c a l l y , and v i s i b l e m a n i f e s t a t i o n s of a i r pollution effects sharply decreased. Even i n s t r i c t l y bureaucratic arenas, t h e "human health only" approach seemed successful. In t h e l a t e 70's, w h i l e several federal agencies f e a r e d b e i n g swallowed i n a Department o f Environment and N a t u r a l Resources, the Environmental P r o t e c t i o n Agency (EPA) k e p t itself out o f t h a t p o o l by d e c l a r i n g i t s e l f t o be p r i m a r i l y a "human h e a l t h agency". The problem came, o f c o u r s e , when m o n i t o r i n g and a i r q u a l i t y measurements o f p o l l u t a n t s began to outstrip the c a p a b i l i t i e s o f h e a l t h d a t a t o show d r a m a t i c e f f e c t s . Suddenly i t was o b v i o u s t h a t some b a l a n c e o f r i s k s , and c o s t s and/or b e n e f i t s , would have t o be made. Moreover, i t became a p p a r e n t t h a t t h e impacts o f pollutants were not independent quantities, with unique dose-response curves. I n s t e a d , many were shown t o be c l o s e l y interdependent and c o u l d o n l y be c o n s i d e r e d i n t h e c o n t e x t o f a l l the others. Most s i g n i f i c a n t o f a l l , as t h e l o n g range and p e r v a s i v e damage o f a c i d r a i n and o t h e r e c o l o g i c a l e f f e c t s began t o be p e r c e i v e d , i t was c l e a r t h a t l e g i s l a t i v e , r e g u l a t o r y , and r e s e a r c h programs a d d r e s s e d solely t o human h e a l t h g e n e r a t e d a s e t o f p r i o r i t i e s i n r e g u l a t o r y law t h a t c o u l d be f a r from t h o s e r e a l l y needed f o r o v e r - a l l s o c i e t a l b e n e f i t s . D e s p i t e t h e t r a p c r e a t e d by t h e o r i g i n a l d e c i s i o n t o t a c t i c a l l y use a b s o l u t e human h e a l t h d a t a t o dominate i n a p o l i t i c a l argument about a i r p o l l u t i o n c o n t r o l , t h e l o n g - s t a n d i n g a c i d r a i n debate i s an example o f a p r o c e s s which i l l u s t r a t e s both ends o f t h e spectrum o f use o f "facts". There have been periods when representatives of utilities, coal companies, environmental s c i e n t i s t s , midwestern c o a l s t a t e s , n o r t h e a s t e r n f o r e s t and s p o r t f i s h i n g a r e a s , and r e g u l a t o r y a g e n c i e s were a b l e t o s i t t o g e t h e r and j o i n t l y r e v i e w d a t a as w e l l as agree on f a c t u a l needs f o r future decisions. However, t h e r e have a l s o been p e r i o d s when these same parties have chosen t o take t h e same body of measurements, selectively pull out " f a c t s " , package them with d r a m a t i c or m a n i p u l a t i v e a d j e c t i v e s , and use them a l m o s t e x c l u s i v e l y t o attempt t o stampede p u b l i c or p o l i t i c a l opinion. Industry groups i n t h e s e p a r t s o f t h e c y c l e chose t o h i g h l i g h t "facts" such as t h e e x i s t e n c e o f l a k e a c i d i f i c a t i o n i n t h e absence o f f o s s i l f u e l c o n b u s t i o n i n f l u e n c e s , o r improvement o f c e r t a i n c r o p yields i n the presence of d e p o s i t i o n of s u l f u r or nitrogen compounds. E n v i r o n m e n t a l i n t e r e s t s , i n c o n t r a s t , f o c u s e d on " f a c t s " such as f o r e s t and l a k e t r a n s i t i o n s , o r c r u m b l i n g s t a t u a r y . Both s i d e s p u b l i s h e d g l o s s y l i t e r a t u r e w i t h t i t l e s l i k e " F a c t s About



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A c i d R a i n " , but p r e s e n t i n g v e r y d i f f e r e n t " f a c t s " i n very d i f f e r e n t ways. What i s a l s o remarkable i s t h a t d u r i n g t h e s e l a t t e r a d v e r s a r i a l p e r i o d s of " f a c t " use, both s i d e s g e n e r a l l y f e l t abused by t h e others' manipulations. Both bemoaned t h e d e t e r i o r a t i o n of the h o n e s t y of the exchange, and both wrung hands about t h e g u l l i b i l i t y of the p u b l i c o r v u l n e r a b i l i t y of t h e p o l i t i c a l system t o the distortions or manipulations of the other side. Both sides r e g r e t t e d a l s o t h a t t h e i r own l e v e l o f d i s c u s s i o n was "forced" to a l e v e l of s i m p l i s t i c s l o g a n s o r s e l e c t i v e use o f "facts", but e x p l a i n e d t h a t t h i s was the o n l y way t h a t they c o u l d c o u n t e r t h e t a c t i c s of t h e i r opponents. D e s p i t e t h e sense o f b e i n g " t r a p p e d " or dragged into the f a c t m a n i p u l a t i o n a r e n a , however, t h e r e i s ample e v i d e n c e that i t i s p o s s i b l e t o break out o f t h a t entrapment. B e f o r e passage was f i n a l l y a c h i e v e d , the T o x i c Substance C o n t r o l A c t (TOSCA) had languished i n several Congresses, with coalitions of i n d u s t r y groups on one s i d e , and e n v i r o n m e n t a l h e a l t h groups on t h e o t h e r , t r a d i n g " f a c t s h e e t s " as they j o c k e y e d f o r p u b l i c and political support. Not s u r p r i s i n g l y , when c o n f r o n t e d by two s e t s o f e x p e r t s c i t i n g " f a c t s " as p r o o f of o p p o s i t e p o s i t i o n s , the p o l i t i c a l b o d i e s t y p i c a l l y t e n d t o a v o i d d e c i s i v e a c t i o n or even any a c t i o n a t all. TOSCA i s not t h e o n l y example o f a major p i e c e o f l e g i s l a t i o n which was pushed enthusiastically by proponents, and bitterly opposed by a d v e r s a r i e s , but g i v e n d e t e r m i n e d n e g l e c t by a much l a r g e r group r a t h e r than v o t e d up o r down. In such s i t u a t i o n s , e n d l e s s p r o c e d u r a l s t e p s seem e n e v i t a b l y t o d r a g out because t h e r e i s no c o l l e c t i v e w i l l t o s h o r t e n them, and somehow d e a d l i n e s o f b r i n g i n g d e c i s i v e v o t e s a r e never met. However, i n TOSCA's c a s e , both sides f i n a l l y acknowledged t h e r i s k of u s i n g measurements and f a c t s p r i m a r i l y as m a n i p u l a t i v e t o o l s , and e v e n t u a l l y s w i t c h e d t o use them as a r a t i o n a l b a s i s for action. The r i s k of s t a l e m a t e f o r TOSCA opponents was that t h e i r s u c c e s s i n d e l a y of any a c t i o n c o u l d have l e d t o a sudden acute political frustration, perhaps triggered by an e x t e r n a l e v e n t , which might l e a d t o enactment o f an extreme measure much s t r o n g e r than t h a t which was a c h i e v a b l e by working c o n s t r u c t i v e l y with f a c t s to b u i l d a mutually t o l e r a b l e s o l u t i o n . The r i s k f o r proponents was j u s t the c o n v e r s e : t h e y might, i n d e e d , by e n t e r i n g i n t o compromise p r o b l e m - s o l v i n g w i t h t h e i r opponents, have m i s s e d a chance f o r a c h i e v i n g something c l o s e r t o t h e i r i d e a l g o a l s . N a t u r a l l y , I c a n ' t know i n d e t a i l how t h e s e r i s k s were b a l a n c e d i n t h e minds of a l l p a r t i c i p a n t s i n t h e p o l i t i c a l s t r u g g l e o v e r TOSCA, acid rain, or other issues. Whatever these internal c o n s i d e r a t i o n s , however, the r e s u l t s u s u a l l y show a d e f i n i t e p a t t e r n o f s w i n g i n g from one approach t o f a c t s and measurements t o t h e other. A not u n f a m i l i a r p a t t e r n i n t h e p o l i t i c a l system i s t h a t of initial fact and measurement m a n i p u l a t i o n and exploitation t o s t a k e out p o s i t i o n , and l a t e r i n t e l l i g e n t use t o b u i l d r e a s o n a b l e p o s i t i o n s a f t e r the f a t i g u e and f u t i l i t y of a d v e r s a r y " f a c t " games have s e t i n . A common v a r i a t i o n i s t h a t o f i n i t i a l c o o p e r a t i v e work w i t h a common base of f a c t and measurement among t e c h n i c a l colleagues, which switches to the adversary position when professional " a d v e r s a r y coaches" ( l o b b y i n g and p u b l i c relations


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firms, certain kinds of general counsel offices, etc) become involved. And though t h i s p a t t e r n may eventually evolve, due to f a t i g u e or other reasons, back t o t h e c o o p e r a t i v e f a c t - u s e mode, t h e a d v e r s a r y mode i n many d e b a t e s ( l i k e the c o n t i n u i n g i n a b i l i t y t o r e a c h a up-dated v e r s i o n o f t h e C l e a n A i r A c t ) , may s i m p l y c o n t i n u e i n d e f i n i t e l y w i t h a few minor accomodations o r a c t i o n s , but c o n t i n u a l u n d e r l y i n g b i t t e r " f a c t " m a n i p u l a t i o n back and f o r t h . Another p a r t i c u l a r l y c l a s s i c example o f t h i s c y c l e u n f o l d e d concurrently with t h i s w r i t i n g . A f t e r a fourteen year stalemate of p o s t u r i n g and a d v e r s a r y c o n f r o n t a t i o n s , Congress appeared to be ready to substantially revise federal pesticide regulatory law (the Federal Insecticide, Fungicide, and Rodenticide Act (FIFRA)) w i t h t h e s u p p o r t o f both major i n d u s t r y and environmental groups. " F a c t s " and "measurements" had been, f o r seven C o n g r e s s e s , merely pawns i n a c o n t i n u i n g s t r u g g l e i n which each s i d e was c o n v i n c e d o f the o t h e r s i g n o r a n c e a t b e s t , but more t y p i c a l l y of t h e i r narrow g r e e d and s e l f - i n t e r e s t . S t u d i e s and t e s t r e s u l t s had been c i t e d e n d l e s s l y over t h e c o u r s e o f t h e f o u r t e e n y e a r s , and yet these "facts" and measurements a t l e a s t superficially had p r o v i d e d l i t t l e h e l p i n f o r m i n g n a t i o n a l p o l i c y . They were d e s i g n e d o r used t o upstage o r negate, r a t h e r t h a n b u i l d on each other. However, by O c t o b e r o f 1986 b o t h t h e House and Senate had v o t e d overwhelmingly (329-4 i n t h e House) t o b r i n g f o r t h a compromise v e r s i o n o f t h e l e g i s l a t i o n . 1

What caused t h e change i n t h e s t y l e o f t h e FIFRA d e b a t e ? As u s u a l i n most major c o n t r o v e r s i e s , t h e dynamics o f t h e p e r i o d s of t e n s i o n , o r o f p o s i t i v e a t t i t u d e s , a r e h a r d t o t r a c e . In t h i s c a s e , as i s o f t e n t r u e , t h e r e was an e x t e r n a l f a c t o r which drove t h e p a r t i e s toward compromise, and i n so d o i n g m o t i v a t e d them to use their data and measurements c o n s t r u c t i v e l y r a t h e r than i n a gaming p a t t e r n . I n d u s t r y groups i n t h i s c a s e were v e r y much interested in legislative e x t e n s i o n of t h e i r patent r i g h t s to compensate f o r l o n g r e g u l a t o r y d e l a y s ; e n v i r o n m e n t a l group s u p p o r t was needed f o r t h i s and thus t h e r e was a potential for barter between t h e elements o f p e s t i c i d e r e g u l a t o r y and p a t e n t l e g i s l a t i o n . In a b r o a d e r sense, however, as t h e New York Times r e p o r t e d ( 4 ) : "The changes in the law reflect growing scientific knowledge and public awareness about the dangers of pesticides. In r e c e n t y e a r s i n c r e a s i n g l y advanced t e s t i n g has found t h a t some p e s t i c i d e s can cause c a n c e r , b i r t h d e f e c t s and m u t a t i o n s i n humans." The important o b s e r v a t i o n i s p r o b a b l y t o note t h a t d u r i n g t h e f o u r t e e n y e a r s o f p i t t i n g " f a c t " a g a i n s t " f a c t " , measurement a g a i n s t measurement, t h e two s i d e s d i d not e x a c t l y balance to z e r o knowledge g a i n e d . However f r u s t r a t i n g i n appearance t o t h e scientific community or public on both sides, retrospectively one can see t h a t slow p r o g r e s s was b e i n g made i n e s t a b l i s h i n g a base o f knowledge and a body of " a c c e p t e d f a c t " as opposed t o t h e i s o l a t e d a n e c d o t a l " f a c t s " used o n l y f o r d e b a t i n g p u r p o s e s . The FIFRA revisions eventually failed in the rush for Congressional adjournment, because of House-Senate Conference disagreement on technicalities of the patent p r o v i s i o n s . Only t h e coming Congress w i l l t e l l us whether a s t a b l e consensus has


3. MOSS


been a c h i e v e d , which can be r e s u r r e c t e d and l e g i s l a t e d again, o r whether a n o t h e r c y c l e o f " f a c t " m a n i p u l a t i o n w i l l be n e c e s s a r y to the process.


The Risks of Misunderstanding the Debate Cycles; I've anecdotally documented t h e c y c l e o f measurement and f a c t use i n p u b l i c p o l i c y d e b a t e , b u t need t o add a f u r t h e r o b s e r v a t i o n on t h e need f o r awareness o f t h i s c y c l e , and r i s k s o f n a i v e t e c o n c e r n i n g i t . I n an i d e a l w o r l d we might hope t h a t a l l c o n c e r n e d would be w i l l i n g t o plunge i m m e d i a t e l y i n t o a c o n s t r u c t i v e and purely o b j e c t i v e mode o f u s i n g a body o f measurement d a t a t o optimize policy courses. Various segments of the s c i e n t i f i c community p e r i o d i c a l l y e x p r e s s t h e hope f o r t h i s ideal world, with f r u s t r a t i o n a t the true state of a f f a i r s . There c e r t a i n l y i s no f a u l t i n b e i n g d i s a p p o i n t e d a t t h e a d v e r s a r y and d i s t o r t e d s t a t e o f p u b l i c d e b a t e a t t h e low p o i n t s i n i t s c y c l e s . However, it i s crucial t o understand that adversary posturing i s often a n a t u r a l and even i n e v i t a b l e human group (and t h u s p o l i t i c a l ) b e h a v i o r , and n o t an i n d i c a t i o n t h a t a more r a t i o n a l o r c o n s t r u c t i v e approach i s h o p e l e s s . One r i s k o f n a i v e t e i s to find oneself i n a s t a t e o f shock i n r e a c t i o n t o t h e a d v e r s a r y phase, l e a d i n g t o d r o p - o u t from t h e p r o c e s s . T h i s can r e s u l t i n n o n - p a r t i c i p a t i o n a t t h e c r i t i c a l time i n t h e c y c l e when p a r t i c i p a n t s a r e r e a d y , for whatever reason, to swing back to the constructive p r o b l e m - s o l v i n g mode. The c o n v e r s e r i s k i s t o f i n d o n e s e l f s p e n d i n g an inordinate amount o f time speaking i n objective scientific language i n a d i s c u s s i o n which i s p r o c e e d i n g w i t h an e n t i r e l y d i f f e r e n t approach. For the t e c h n i c a l person not tuned t o the a d v e r s a r y s t y l e , i t may be b e s t t o s i m p l y w a i t o u t t h e a d v e r s a r y p e r i o d s , l i k e t i m e s o f stormy weather, b u t i n a s t a t e o f r e a d i n e s s f o r t h e moment when t h e storm blows o v e r . On t h e o t h e r s i d e a r e t h o s e so committed t o a f u n d a m e n t a l l y a d v e r s a r y approach t o p o l i t i c s t h a t t h e y may c o m p l e t e l y f a i l t o recognize an o p p o r t u n i t y f o r t r u e win-win compromise w i t h their opponents. Though t h e hardened a d v e r s a r y a t t i t u d e may seem o f t e n t o be " r e a l i s t i c " , i t s p r o p o n e n t s r i s k b e i n g t o t a l l y d i s e n f r a n c h i s e d from p a r t i c i p a t i o n i n eventual compromise when t h e c o u r s e o f decision-making turns i n that d i r e c t i o n . In a l l of the debates I've mentioned; c l e a n a i r , a c i d r a i n , p e s t i c i d e r e g u l a t i o n , and t o x i c c h e m i c a l s , I've seen b o t h i n d u s t r y and e n v i r o n m e n t a l groups which had h e l d t o o l o n g t o r i g i d a d v e r s a r y r o l e s be s i m p l y left out o f t h e f i n a l d i s c u s s i o n s which l e d t o compromise a c t i o n . The l e s s o n i s simply t h a t though one must guard a g a i n s t n a i v e t e i n expectation f o r o b j e c t i v i t y and c o n s t r u c t i v e attitudes, i t is e q u a l l y n a i v e n o t t o remain v i g i l a n t and ready f o r o p p o r t u n i t i e s f o r gain through cooperation and t h e h o n e s t mode o f s e r i o u s l y i n t e g r a t i n g s c i e n t i f i c measurement and f a c t i n t o d e c i s i o n - m a k i n g .

Can Participants Control the Debate Reality i n Which They Operate? The hardest p a r t t o argue o f my i n i t i a l t h e s i s i s t h a t p u b l i c p o l i c y debate p a r t i c i p a n t s can t o an a p p r e c i a b l e extent "create t h e i r own r e a l i t y " i n t h e tone o f t h e p o l i t i c a l debate. The


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n e g a t i v e s i d e o f t h i s seems most p l a u s i b l e : i n early acid rain d i s c u s s i o n s i t was p a r t i c u l a r l y o b v i o u s when many i n d u s t r y groups began t o t o t a l up p o t e n t i a l c o n t r o l c o s t s and s w i t c h t o a s t r a t e g y of embarrassing r a t h e r than w o r k i n g w i t h c o n t r o l p r o p o n e n t s , and when e n v i r o n m e n t a l groups r e a l i z e d t h a t a c i d r a i n c o n c e r n s were l i k e l y t o be a major p o l i t i c a l f o r c e i n m a i n t a i n i n g o r s t r e n g t h e n i n g o t h e r a s p e c t s o f the C l e a n A i r A c t and t u r n e d away from an a p p r o a c h of compromise o r i n c r e m e n t a l p i l o t a p p r o a c h e s . The a c t i o n s of e i t h e r s i d e were s u f f i c i e n t t o c r e a t e a r e a l i t y of a b i t t e r d e b a t e i n which measurements and " f a c t s " were weapons r a t h e r than t o o l s for f i n d i n g optimal s o l u t i o n s . On t h e p o s i t i v e s i d e , i t i s not easy t o argue c o n v i n c i n g l y t h a t any p e r s o n o r groups, no m a t t e r how w e l l - m o t i v a t e d , has t h e power t o s i n g l e - h a n d e d l y c o n v e r t an a d v e r s a r y confrontation to a c o n s t r u c t i v e d i s c u s s i o n . What my own e x p e r i e n c e does t e l l me, however, i s t h a t i n the p o l i t i c a l w o r l d t h e r e a r e always some v e r y r e a l b e n e f i t s t o c o n s e r v i n g the energy and r e s o u r c e s o t h e r w i s e d i s s i p a t e d i n a d v e r s a r y b a t t l e s , and t h a t t h e r e i s always a s t e a d y though u n p r e d i c t a b l e appearance of external factors which may increase the self interest of those involved i n creating a constructive problem-solving process. Thus, the p a r t i c i p a n t i n such a debate who d e c i d e s t o move from t h e a d v e r s a r y c o u r s e t o t h a t o f u s i n g measurement and facts in a c o n s t r u c t i v e manner i s u s u a l l y not w i t h o u t allies. The s e l f - i n t e r e s t o f t h e o t h e r s i d e , and p o w e r f u l e x t e r n a l i n f l u e n c e s may a t any moment push i n t h e same d i r e c t i o n . C r e a t i n g the r e a l i t y of a c o n s t r u c t i v e debate may thus t a k e a p e r s i s t e n c e and p a t i e n c e , but n o n e t h e l e s s t h e o p p o r t u n i t y i s v e r y l i k e l y t o come a l o n g i f i t i s s e r i o u s l y sought. As mentioned above, the f i n a l House v o t e this fall on the 14-year stalemated pesticide legislation was 329 t o 4. I t i s a v i v i d example o f t h e k i n d of consensus on t h e meaning o f measurements and d a t a t h a t can be e v e n t u a l l y found i f commitment t o do so i s s u f f i c i e n t l y s t r o n g and e n d u r i n g . The l e s s o n o f t h e s e a c t u a l c a s e s i s t h a t we i n t h e s c i e n t i f i c community must r e a l i z e that public policy debates have c y c l e s of o b j e c t i v i t y and d i s t o r t i o n , i n w h i c h t h e l a t t e r i s not a s i g n of the d i s i n t e g r a t i o n o f the p o l i t i c a l p r o c e s s but o n l y o f i t s human-centered n a t u r e . Measurement and d a t a t h a t may seem wasted or p r o s t i t u t e d a t a low p o i n t i n t h e d e b a t e p r o c e s s may, however, be quietly moving a center of consensus toward a point and c r e d i b i l i t y which w i l l l a t e r be t h e c o r e o f sound d e c i s i o n s . T h i s i s the e n d u r i n g r e a s o n f o r t h e v i t a l need f o r measurement e x p e r t s and other s c i e n t i s t s as p a r t i c i p a n t s i n t h e p o l i t i c a l process. Though sometimes ignored, distorted, or abused, they are the u l t i m a t e key t o p r o g r e s s i n r e a c h i n g sound p u b l i c p o l i c y .

Literature Cited: 1. 2.

U.S. Senate Report 91-1196, 91st Congress, 2nd Session (1970) Food Additive Amendment, 1958, Federal Food, Drug and Cosmetics Act (Sec. 409(c)(3)(A)) 3. "Stretching Delaney Till It Breaks", Richard M. Cooper, Regulation, November/December 1985, pg. 11-17,41 4. New York Times, September 20, 1986 RECEIVED September 28, 1987 Currie; Detection in Analytical Chemistry ACS Symposium Series; American Chemical Society: Washington, DC, 1987.

Scientific Measurements and Data in Public Policy-Making - ACS

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