Colony Development's shale oil prototype plant Awaiting Interior, healing a rift
vice president Richard C. Sauer is not so bullish. In a letter to Interior Secretary Stewart Udall this month, he cautioned against optimistic technical and economic projections. A plant cannot be built today to yield a 12% or higher rate of return on the required investment, he concluded. Given a start this year, Mr. Koolsbergen estimates, a plant could be operating at partial capacity in 1970 and at its full capacity of 55,000 barrels of shale oil daily in 36 months. Cost of the plant: $140 million. TOSCO says that the company's process could produce oil for about $1.60 a barrel before by-product credits or $1.25 a barrel after by-product credits. Criticized for the lack of "urgency" in its oil shale report, the Interior Department also appears to be spurring research on oil shale development. The department has just selected three federal tracts for leasing to companies who want to conduct experiments. SILVER:
Enough for Everyone There is sufficient silver to meet the world's industrial need, 200 experts on the metal heard at a seminar on silver sponsored by the American Metal Market in New York's Roosevelt Hotel last week. Enough silver, that is, when secondary sources such as U.S. Treasury sales, the melting down of U.S. and foreign coins, and the liquidation of speculator holdings are counted as potential supplies. Silver from these secondary sources will be needed to bridge the gap between 18 C&EN SEPT. 16, 1968
world production and consumption of silver in coming years. The present silver market "is totally dominated by speculators/' Francis H. Wemple, vice president and treasurer of Handy & Harman, explains. The current price of silver is $2.25 a troy ounce. "On the basis of an analysis of supplies and industrial demand, the price probably ought not to have gone above $1.80," Mr. Wemple adds. Ralph L. Wilcox, manager of silver sales, American Smelting and Refining Co., presents his forecasts of the size of this gap for the next five years. World production of silver will reach about 270 million ounces in 1968, according to Mr. Wilcox. Production, spurred by high silver prices, should grow by 4% a year to 335 million troy ounces by 1974. Consumption, on the other hand, will reach 360 million troy ounces in 1968. At a forecast annual growth rate of 2.5%, world silver consumption in 1974 should be 417 million troy ounces. Mr. Wemple reasons that even if the gap reached 200 million ounces a year for the next five years it could still be filled. The required 1 billion ounces between 1969 and 1973 could be obtained from sale by the U.S. Government of 300 million ounces, demonetization of coin amounting to 300 million ounces, salvage and miscellaneous supplies of 150 million ounces, sales from the Indian government of 100 million ounces, and the liquidation of speculative holdings of 150 million ounces. Echoing the belief that there is really no silver shortage, Walter Frankland, Jr., executive director of the Sil-
ver Users Association (SUA), points out that vast amounts of silver are overhanging the market: • The U.S. Treasury has 300 million ounces and is selling 2 million a week. • There are 300 million plus ounces in speculative holdings. • Outstanding U.S. coins contain 1.7 billion ounces of silver. • Millions of ounces of demonetized coins of other countries can be obtained. • Other foreign hoards, including 5.5 billion ounces in India, could come into the market. Last year the U.S. consumed about 145 million ounces of silver, according to Mr. Frankland. The end uses (in millions of ounces) were photography, 45; electrical and electronics, 35; silverware and jewelry, 25; brazing alloys, 17; batteries, 10; dental uses, 4; mirrors, 3; missiles, 1; and miscellaneous, 5. Mr. Frankland asked that the Treasury remove the ban against private melting of old silver coins. Robert A. Wallace, Assistant Secretary of Treasury, says that in his opinion there is slim chance that the Treasury will permit private melting of old coins. There is the problem of who makes the profit on melting coins, the Government or speculators. "Hoarders have been a problem and the Treasury isn't particularly anxious to help them," he explains. Mr. Wallace also says that the U.S. accounts for most of the world gap in silver. He estimates that of the 1.7 billion ounces of silver in U.S. coins in circulation, 500 million to 1 billion ounces can be recovered. The remainder would remain in private hands. Ralph Wilcox Measuring the gap
Treasury's Wallace
