Estimated Free W o r l d Energy Consumption MUtlons o f Equivalent B o r r e l s / D a y
Petroleum Cocri
UNITED STATES
•i
Natural Gas f Other
*
35*4
W.EUROPE
1 "-
development of nuclear power plants for another 10 to 15 years. Even if all such «installations in the long-term fu ture w ere to b e nuclear, it would re place a very small percentage of the total consumption of liquid fuels." And, t h o u g h he considers nuclear power for propelling ships as a "good possi bility" he estimates the effects on total petroleum demand "will not b e pro nounced."
Smog Answer in Sight
1957
Î9Ô7
1*75
1957
1967
1975
E. HEM. (Ex. W. Europe)
W. HEM. (Ex. U.S.)
1K1
5.9
Ji*57V
^1967
1975
-ic»7
ν~*9β7
197r5
Petroleum D e m a n d Seen Rising Free world's total e n e r g y needs m a y d o u b l e , giving b i g boost to d e m a n d for liquid fuels JLx THK F \CK of apparent setbacks—de clining uses of aviation gasoline, in creased availability ot natural gas, peaceful uses of atomic energy - t h e petroleum industry is girding it sell tor a period of outstanding growth. Some of the reasons: growing population, multi-car families. shorter working hours, longer vacations, expanding die sel d e m a n d s , and growth of underde veloped areas here and abroad. Such is the petroleum picture painted b y Standard Oil of California's Austin C a d l e at the 38th annual meeting ot t h e American Petroleum Institute in Chicago. Says he. "There is nothing on the horizon that can destroy its (pe troleum's) continuance as an outstand ing growth industry, in foreign areas as well as in our own country." About mid-1957. says Cadle. U. S. petroleum demand reached a plateau from w h i c h it is now resuming its climb t o w a r d even greater heights. Domes tic d e m a n d s during 1959 should in crease by 4f '( or more, and Cadle sees d e m a n d for jet fuels increasing by 1 Y'c.
Even distillates and residual fuel oil should gain somewhat, he sa-ys. despite competition from natural gas. Over-all demand abroad is grow ing at three times the rate in the Γ. S.. says Cadle, and the greatest increase is occurring in W e s t e r n Europe. By 1975. total free world energy require ments will just a b o u t double 1 , reaching 7 5 million barrels daily in oil equiva lent, of which some 5 0 ' ' will be met by petroleum. Cadle predicts. To meet bis p r e d i c t e d d e m a n d tor 1975, says Cadle. refining capacity in the free world m u s t be increased by about 136'< by then. This would mean new fixed investment charges of a little over SI billion per year, based on current dollars, until 1975 ( C & E X . Nov. 17. p a g e 17). Refining capacity in the U . S . would h a v e to b e increased 76'< ( t o 16.5 million barrels a d a y ) in the same period. T h e growing network of atomicpower plants as a t h r e a t to petroleum d e m a n d Cadle dismisses with: ". . . it is difficult to visualize anv extensive
Air Pollution Foundation pre dicts solution t o p r o b l e m will come in t w o years JL wo \ i o m M-:\I«S ot basii· research will d e \ e l o p all the information needed to lick the smog problem in Los An geles and other West ( 'oast areas, ac cording to \\ . L. Faith, managing di rector of t h e Air Pollution Foundation. Said Faith in his annual report to foun dation trustees and contributors at bos Angeles: "We fully believe that two more years ot intensive scientific work under foundation auspices can provide all the essential facts so that private industry can take oser from that point .ind p r o d u c e workable, economic con trols tor auto exhaust and thereby elim inate smog." Major culprit in Los Angeles' smog is automobile exhaust. Faith says. About SO' ' of all the hydrocarbons and 9 7 - of t h e olefins in the L. A. atmos phere come from this source. Most important \ariable in smog formation (except liizht ) u n c o \ e r e d to date is the ratio of hydrocarbons to nitrogen di oxide in these exhaust gases; unless it is between one and 10. no eye irritants, no aerosols, and but little ozone (the three major manifestations of smog) form. The most obvious control measure is to upset this nitrogen dioxide—hydro carbon ratio (actually, the1 controlling factor is the oxide-olefin ratio) in the exhaust gases. Faith points out. But the cpiestion remains: How do you increase o r reduce either the nitrogen oxide or the olefin content while not similarly affecting the other? It is this question thai will be answered in the next two years. For the long term. Faith says, the control will b e effected on engine vari ables so that the engine exhausts do not Tiave the right ratio of nitrogen NOV.
2 4,
1958
C&EN
25
INDUSTRY & BUSINESS dioxide to olefins. Foundation scien tists have already found some ear en gines w hich sometimes do not produee smog-forming exhausts So tar. though. the\ liave not learned how to keep them that v\ u> Simulated ac celeration, deceleration, and other changes which occur in normal driving ha\ e led these saint» engines to p \ e off exhausts A Inch do form smog. For the near future, however, the answer lies in afterburners. Two types are now being de\ eloped— direet-fiame and eataKtie—and three companies ha\ e progressed to the stage of having protot\pes testt'd bv APF. All show promise, but all need improvement. Faith sa\s. Halt a do/en other com panies are also working on afterburners but art» not > et far enough along to h u \ e prototxpe** under APF test
Meanwhile, as industrv develops afterburner designs, the Air Pollution Foundation is sponsoring continued basic research in these areas: • Wav s to remove active lead from exhaust gases to increase cataiv st lite • Wav s to reduee chemically the nitric oxide in exhaust gases. • Pinpointing the role of nitrogen o x i d e - C 4 . C- olefin ratio in eve irrita tion, aerosol formation, o/.onc forma tion, and vegetation damage. APF does not expect to have the an swers to all of these» questions in the next two vears. Faith cautions. But, assuming that it gets continued finan cial support, it should be able to tell what engine variables affect the smogforming properties of the exhaust gases
and what to do, either with the engine design or with an afterburner, to solve the whole problem. T h e most important tiling to keep in mind on this subject. Faith says, is that the answ er to Los Angeles* smog prob lem is iic»t necessarily the answer to a m one else's air pollution problem. The "low-inversion, low-wind, intensesunshine regime necessary to develop eye irritation from auto exhaust sel dom occurs in areas other than the West Coast."
Fabrics vs. Heat N e w i d e a s o f f e r e d for d e sign o f f a b r i c systems that protect a g a i n s t heat i \ i n : x i i'Ts
C&EM I n d e x of Stock Prices JML *54 OPENING PRICES
PETROLEUM
100
300 250 203.3
200 .
\
•
-
*
4.
150 SEC
100
C o m p o s i t e Inde• X
1st Qtr.
2nd Qtr.
3rd Qtr.
4th Qtr. 1958
319J
RUBBER
- 203.3
200
150 SEC
&ϊάϊ# 2 6
C & ΕΝ
100
NOV.
Composite
1st Qtr.
2 4,
19 5 8
Index
2nd Qtr.
3rd Qtr.
4th Qtr. 1958
10
SUT P.MUMKTKHS
on
man's tolerance for thermal radiation have1 uncovered a number of factors that help to determine how well various fabrics protect against burns. These factors may be important in space travel and atomic attack, to name1 only two situations. In any event, the subject was examined at a conference on high temperature behavior of textiles spon sored by Polytechnic Institute of Brook lyn. U. S. Navy Clothing and Textile Research Laboratory, and the NewYork Academy of Sciences. Take cotton for instance. Under ordinary heating, it catches fire; but when 'legradated by intense thermal radiation, it actually undergoes an endothermic reaction that sops up the en ergy before1 it can get to the skin, savs XYU's George Mixter, Jr. This endothermic mechanism gives rise to a flock of new ideas in designing fabric systems for thermal protection. At first glance, synthetics, with their endothermie melting characteristics, seem a good bet. But there's one big hitch, Mixter warns. Synthetics "bead" on melting; they shrivel up, forming a bead that entraps heat and causes ter rible burns. Even worse, these beads cling tenaciously to the skin and can't be removed without damaging the whole surface of the wound. • Blending Shows Promise. Blend ing is one answer to this beading p r o b lem, says Irvin M. Gottlieb, formerly of Textile Research Institute and now chemistry professor at Trenton State College. Gottlieb told conference members that mixing a small amount
