now! greater safety and efficiency in total production, its total output in 1965 would be at the r a t e of approxi mately 5.5 trillion cubic feet a n n u ally. I n m a n y consumer markets, even if n a t u r a l g a s prices rose substan tially, gas would still compete o n favorable terms with other fuels, particularly in Chicago, Cleveland, Detroit, Cincinnati, and other m a r ket areas in t h e Mid-West. F o r example, in Cleveland a t the end of 1955, t h e prices of competing fuels for household consumption per mil lion B.t.u.'s, adjusted for t h e r m a l efficiency, w e r e : low volatile bitu minous coal, $1.50; high volatile bi tuminous coal, $1.30; No. 2 fuel oil, $1.56; and n a t u r a l gas $0.88. Moreover, even in areas such as New England, where n a t u r a l gas sells above other fuels, gas consump tion has continued to increase. I n Bridgeport, Conn., for example, comparative fuel prices p e r million B.t.u.'s in t h e household m a r k e t in 1955 were approximately: n a t u r a l gas, $1.59; coal, $1.38; a n d No. 2 fuel oil, $1.32. T h e fact that gas has found increasing consumer accept ance u n d e r these price conditions suggests that its convenience, cleanli ness, a n d efficiency will permit it to sell o n a competitive basis a t prices considerably above parity with other fuels in the household market. I n t h e light of these considera tions, we anticipate t h a t n a t u r a l gas prices will continue to move u p w a r d over t h e next 8 years, b u t perhaps not as rapidly as in the recent past. Average contract prices a t the well head should be a t least 5 to 10 cents per thousand cubic feet higher in 1965 than a t the present time. T h e u p w a r d movement will be, of course, influenced b y t h e regulatory poli cies of the Federal Power Commis sion. I n t h e long r u n , however, the prices will inevitably adjust to the levels indicated by d e m a n d a n d sup ply and will sooner or later take full cognizance of the relative utility of gas in the household market vs. other fuels. T h e growth in d e m a n d for L P G ' s is expected to continue, although a t a somewhat slower rate. I n a recent study, t h e Southwest Research I n stitute h a s estimated L P G sales in 1965 at about 9.8 billion gallons. Various other sources have projected
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VOL. 50, NO. 1 • JANUARY 1958 115 Α
