College Trends The demographic trends in the United States outlined in H. L. Hodgkinson's recent report and described on this page for the past two months also involve the postsecondary component of the educational continuum. Just as the 70 million Baby Boomers swelled college admissions in the past, the major increase in the percentage of youth who have graduated from high school and are therefore available for college enrollment have, and will have, a significant impact. Today, 13%of our youth are in a position to attend college, up significantly from the less than 50% in 1946. Two critically imoartant thine8 " are occurrine: the number of vouth is declining and retention raws to high rrhod grsduatwn are dropping; t h r a ~ trends suggert thdt higher rdurntion must anticipate a smaller percentage of a rapidly declining total. The system of higher education--cammunity colleges, colleges, and universities-is faced with an immediate and continuing decrease to the year 1994 in the numher of high schaol graduates potentially available as matriculants; this, in spite of the increase in the percent of youth who are in a position to attend college. Parts of that system will be stressed while other parts will find it difficult to continue for lack of students. For example, community colleges have a disproportionate enrollment of Black and Hispanic students. If the trend for this group to prefer community colleges continues, enrollment pressure on community colleges will be protracted since Blacks and Hispanics are expected to represent an increasing proportion of the high school graduates. In an environment with a declining population of high school graduates containing a smaller proportion of persons with what was a traditional college profile, community and four-year colleges and universities will increasingly come under different kinds of pressures. Private institutions, which currently enroll about 22% of all students, will be at great risk heeause they obtain a large share of their budgets from student revenues. Public institutions, especially those created to accommodate to the Baby Boomers, will he faced with difficult decisions. Because the closing of a public institution of higher education ia hound to create complex political problems, a large numher of institutions that have served their purpose as a legislative response to a short-term immediate need will nrobablv not he allowed to close. which will effectively sequester funds nwded for other educational purposes. The most difficult problems will invdve inatitutiunv that had "greatness" thrust upon them in the 19fiO's when many unnecessary programs were added on the assumption that student enrallments would increase forever. As the numher of high school graduates declines steeply and fewer students are spread across the same number of institutions, the range and diversity characteristic of American higher education may suffer as some institutions try to attract any "warm and breathing student" to their classes. The nature of the college experience, which currently is tacitly assumed to he "eight semesters of instruction straight throligh to graduation," will probably have to change to accommodate to the new reality. Indeed, studies done over the last 20 years indicate this "typical template" is not a t all typical. Of 1M)students admitted to a four-year haeealaureate program, only 46 graduated "on time" from the institution they entered. If the time period is extended to seven years, about 70 of the original 100 graduated from some institution. Thus thesvstem of hieher education seems to he effective in nroduc,~~ ing graduates with drgrrrs. Hut, what nhwt those who take longer thaneight demesters to rornpl~wtheirdegrees? Part-time and oldrr s t u d c n t ~with family and job respon~ibihtiestend to be oiticizrd. and administrative biases are often constructed unwittingly against them. Four-year institutions and their faculties have become obsessed with the length of time used to acquire an education as apposed to its content or outcome. Apparently there is some confu~~
~~~~~
~
-~
~
~~
sion between high school drop-outs and college drop-outs. College drop-outs do not, in general, have the same characteristics as high school drop-outs. The college drop-outs are generally not "flunkouts." They often have as good a grade point average as those who remain in school. "Financial problems" is the major reason given for students dropping out of college. "Finances" is the easiest answer for what is often a very complex situation. College "drop-outs" are often only "stop-outs." In this context it is easy to understand why the graduation rate nearly doubles if one uses a seven-year basis for completion rather than the "standard" four years. The issue of retention to college graduation will become increasingly important as colleges realize that improved retention rates can Lead to lareer enrollments. even with a smaller freshman class. Unfortunat~ly,this LS nut a common mind-set for administmtimr in public insr~tutions,where often thr prrvailing philosophy involves awepting large number* of r t ~ d r n t at s the freshman level and not showing much concern with the size of the graduating classes. If a higher percentage of students stay for four years, the total student enrollment need not shrink. Curiously, many institutions of higher education seem to he designed to increase attrition: they overindulge seniors and maintain a "sink or swim" attitude for freshmen. Freshmen tvoieallv have the worst teacher-student ratio while senims have the best. Ohviuu4y. rrdistributing teaching reruurcev to f a w r the first-year clarsru i n t l w curriculum would prwide a mure sohd t,asi* fen retentiun, atld. h m r r , an increnne in the total student enrollment. The largest number of drop-outs for academic reasons a m r in the freshman year; indeed, most potential drop-outs who are in academic difficulty send signals veryearly in the first term or semester, hut no one hears them because the system is not designed t o d o so. In the tvnical freshman course. there is usuallv no maior examinatrvn until well into the first term or semexter. fiy this ;me brhaviurs that impedr proprr~tudya r firmly ~ in place. The indtitution of a well-drsignrd "earl" wnrnmg a)utemV small a e p r n t s of substantive work required in the first few weeks-could provide students with the basis of modifying their study habits while there is still time for them to be effective. Many academic drop-outs are sufficiently bright to dogood college work, but they have not learned how to succeed: how to studv effectivelv. .. take tests. andlor do eood written work. Attention to these types of problems requires more resources (smaller student-teacher ratios) in college as well as in ~~
~
,.
~~
~~
~
.
,.~ ~~
..."....- ........
Interestingly, many of the standard indicators used hy college admmisrratorr are not good prrdictors of dropping out. High achcol rank in clasr and CPA unlv prrdict about hnlfof the cases. and they are mainly those that occuiin the first college year. Having a cleai educational andlor vocational eoal (e.e.. heine a "ore-med" or an engineer) helm the colleee %n what n~~~ .. ~ ~ ~ b r e d i e thuthaeshssueeest individual will drop out. S A T a n m s have a small ability to prrdirt cullrycprndes, bur no ahility to predict drop-wtd. C'lrarly a number of college drop-outs are merely delaying their graduation from some instituticm of higher education. 'The demographre p r ~ ~ m o sfor i s at least the next decade is that a limmd numher uf potential culleyr studrnts will be availahle from the system of higher education. ~ c t i t u d ewill s have to change. In the past, with an excess of young people, if a freshman didn't work out, another high school graduate was waiting for that place. Now, an initial failure may require a second chance, and it may become necessary to provide help to succeed the second time rather than summarily replacing them. The task will be not to lower the standards but to increase the quality of the effort to assure success. ~~~
~.~~
~~~
JJL
Volume 63
Number 3
March 1986
187
