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Preface This book continues, updates, and expands the discussions and papers presented at the symposium, “The Future of the Chemical Industry,” held at the 236th National Meeting of the American Chemical Society in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, August 18, 2008. This symposium was cosponsored by the Business Development and Management Division and the Committee for Economic and Professional Affairs. The symposium’s theme was the future of an increasingly globalized chemical industry under highly volatile cost pressures, geographically divergent environmental measures, and broadening competition. While some of this information enlarges upon themes in our earlier book, “The Chemical Industry and Globalization,” published by ACS in 2006, there is a great deal of new material, plus an brief assessment on the impact of the global recession that began to hit harder in the second half of 2008.. The speed of change in our industry seems only to continue accelerating. The most noticeable event was the unprecedented rapid escalation of the cost of oil during 2007-2008, plus growing US and EU government demands (but essentially nowhere else) to reduce carbon dioxide emissions. The abrupt runup in oil prices was widely attributed to surging demand throughout the industrialized world, particularly in China and India. Also intensifying the rise in oil prices was an increased “security premium,” reflecting a number of supply interruptions experienced in the past several years, including the delivery suspensions of Russian natural gas during the winters of 2007 and 2008, and oil pipeline sabotage in Nigeria. In the US, and to a lesser extent, Europe, leading chemical industry companies have been reacting to these challenges by moving petrochemical production operations to offshore sites that are integrated back to the wellhead, most notably in the Persian Gulf. The 2008 elections have resulted in a new direction of the US government, with immense implications for the future of the chemical industry. An analysis of chemical industry employment vs. university graduations is presented that indicates job opportunities for new graduates with degrees in chemistry has been in steady decline for over two decades. New graduates with degrees in chemical engineering, however, appear to have been in steady demand over this same period. Pharmaceutical companies are seeking new ways to reduce the cost of bringing new drugs to market in the face of lengthening approval processes, which is effectively halving the time a new product has patent protection. They are also continuing to seek the most cost- and time-effective venues in which to do research.
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The EU chemical industry looks to China as the principal future market for its products, seeing that its dramatic growth will require imports to supplement domestic production for many years to come. Western European countries are finding that their domestic demand for chemicals has steadily slowed, influenced by the lack of population growth; this puts emphasis on export and outsourcing to sustain the existing European-based chemical industry. China is constantly changing and the speed of this change is a challenge to western companies who participate in the enormous marketplace. An important part of this change is a rapid upgrading of the abilities of domestic industries to make increasingly sophisticated products. Despite the recession, China’s domestic market continues to grow – just less rapidly than before. In the meantime, demand for China’s exports has dropped sharply and is causing substantial turmoil in manufacturing, with the less advanced manufacturers suffering the most. Finally, alternative sources of energy continue to be the subject of intense development efforts to overcome their inability to compete with conventional sources on an unsubsidized basis. Fuel cells have been held out as having significant potential for replacing motor fuel, the largest single end use for petroleum, although commercialization is at least five years away, even with subsidies. Other, more modest scale, fuel cell power applications may have more immediate promise. Without question, portions of this book will be dated by the time of publication. The authors have tried their hands at predicting trends that may – or may not – seem prescient to the reader. It is typical of the popular news media to deal in sensationalism and we have tried hard to avoid such extreme views. The reader is encouraged to check the references provided at the end of each chapter, as this basic information constitutes the authors’ sources of data and analyses for their views of how the industry is changing. It was apparent that a large percentage of the attendees at the symposium were recent university graduates and postgraduate students, looking for information on which to base their career decisions. We hope that they find our views and assessments useful. The editor and authors are deeply grateful to the symposium sponsors for providing a forum to explore this important subject and to the American Chemical Society Publications Division for publishing our work. We also owe special thanks to the manuscript reviewers, Patrick Barron, Ernest C. Coleman, William Dunkelburg, Kenneth R. Dargis, Rex Luzader, and Susan Wollowitz who helped us to make this book a more accurate, useful, and readable work. Roger F. Jones Broomall, PA
Jones; The Future ofxthe Chemical Industry ACS Symposium Series; American Chemical Society: Washington, DC, 2010.
Downloaded by 80.82.77.83 on January 6, 2018 | http://pubs.acs.org Publication Date (Web): December 18, 2009 | doi: 10.1021/bk-2009-1026.pr001
About the Editor Roger F. Jones is president of Franklin International LLC, a management consulting firm offering services to the chemicals and plastics industries. He is also the non-executive board chairman of PlastiComp LLC, an advanced composites technology and products firm, based in Winona, Minnesota. In his 50-year industrial career, he has also been president of Franklin Polymers, Inolex Chemical, LNP Engineering Plastics, managing director of BASF Engineering Plastics, and a group executive with Beatrice Chemical. He has held managerial/professional positions in R&D, manufacturing, and marketing with DuPont, Avisun, and ARCO Chemical (both of the latter have become parts of BP Chemical). He is a graduate of Haverford College, holding a BS with Honors in Chemistry. He is a Fellow of both the Society of Plastics Engineers and the American Institute of Chemists. He is a 50-Year Member of the American Chemical Society. His publications include over 100 papers/patents, and two SPEendorsed books: Guide to Short Fiber Reinforced Plastics (Hanser 1998) and Strategic Management for the Plastics Industry (CRC Press 2002). The American Chemical Society previously published his book The Chemical Industry and Globalization (ACS 2006), now in its second printing.
xi Jones; The Future of the Chemical Industry ACS Symposium Series; American Chemical Society: Washington, DC, 2010.
