The Role of Advertising by the Chemical Industry

Services available to the customer will be played up more, and institutional advertising will be more important. Companies must make a de termined eff...
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The Role of Advertising by the Chemical Industry F. A. C. W A R D E N B U R G

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E. I. du Pont de Nemours & Co., Inc., Wilmington 98,

Del.

The intense competition that is expected to charac­ terize the 1960's can only mean that we will have to step up sales activities. Advertising will be no exception. The chemical industry probably now spends at least $300,000,000 a year to advertise its products. By 1970 it will be spending $750,000,000. Increased size is not the only change expected. Advertising will be aimed at a bigger audience, and to a greater extent at the consuming public. Services available to the customer will be played up more, and institutional advertising will be more important. Companies must make a de­ termined effort to develop the art of advertising research. W e need to know how and why adver­ tising works and what effect it has on sales, so that decisions on how much to spend will be more soundly based.

I here seems t o be a u n i v e r s a l f a s c i n a t i o n i n s p e c u l a t i n g a b o u t the f u t u r e , a n d the more d i s t a n t the p e r i o d , the greater the f a s c i n a t i o n . I n business, a o n e - y e a r forecast is p r o s a i c , b u t a t e n - y e a r forecast is a l m o s t r o m a n t i c . T h i s i s i n p a r t , at least, due t o the f a c t t h a t the s h o r t - t e r m forecaster w i l l be b r o u g h t t o account for the success or f a i l u r e of the decisions based on his p r e d i c t i o n s . T h e l o n g range forecast, however, w i l l a l m o s t c e r t a i n l y h a v e been forgotten b y e v e r y b o d y — i n c l u d i n g the p r o p h e t h i m s e l f — l o n g before i t has r u n its course. T h e role of a d v e r t i s i n g a t a n y t i m e is s i m p l y to assist sales. A d v e r t i s i n g has no other j u s t i f i c a t i o n . I f i t does n o t p r o m o t e present or f u t u r e sales, i t s h o u l d be d i s c o n t i n u e d . A v e r y r e a l p r o b l e m , of course, is d e t e r m i n i n g w h e t h e r a p a r t i c u l a r a d v e r t i s i n g p r o g r a m has or has not helped sales. T h e n a t u r e of the sales p r o b l e m s w h i c h w i l l face c h e m i c a l m a n u f a c t u r e r s i n t h e next decade w i l l d e t e r m i n e the n a t u r e of the t a s k s t h a t a d v e r t i s i n g w i l l be c a l l e d u p o n t o p e r f o r m . E c o n o m i c c o n d i t i o n s i n the ΙθβΟ'β w i l l depend u p o n m a n y t h i n g s : t h e r a t e at w h i c h the p o p u l a t i o n grows, b o t h i n t o t a l a n d b y specific age groups ; the r a t e of t e c h n o l o g i c a l a d v a n c e ; t h e g r o w t h of p r o d u c t i v i t y of employees a n d of i n v e s t m e n t ; the course of l a b o r - m a n a g e m e n t r e l a t i o n s ; a n d the w i s d o m of g o v e r n m e n t m o n e t a r y a n d fiscal p o l i c y . T h e s e factors are i n t e r r e l a t e d , each d e p e n d i n g to some degree on the others, a n d each i n f l u e n c i n g the others. 3* CHEMICAL MARKETING IN THE COMPETITIVE SIXTIES Advances in Chemistry; American Chemical Society: Washington, DC, 1959.

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A n y long-range a n a l y s i s of economic c o n d i t i o n s m u s t be based o n specific a s s u m p t i o n s r e g a r d i n g each of these. F o r o u r purpose, however, w e s h o u l d look briefly at only t w o — p o p u l a t i o n growth a n d p r o d u c t i v i t y .

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Population Growth W e c a n be more c e r t a i n a b o u t p o p u l a t i o n g r o w t h t h a n a b o u t t h e other factors, because t h e people t h a t are going t o be i m p o r t a n t t o business i n t h e 1960's are a l r e a d y b o r n . T h e r e w i l l be no d r a m a t i c g r o w t h i n t h e t o t a l p o p u l a t i o n . I t is expected t o continue t o increase a b o u t 1 . 5 % a y e a r , r i s i n g f r o m its present l e v e l of 178,000,000 t o 208,000,000 i n 1970. I t is i n t h e c o m p o s i t i o n of t h e p o p u l a t i o n , however, t h a t d r a m a t i c changes w i l l t a k e place. B e t w e e n 1960 a n d 1970 t h e n u m b e r s of y o u n g people between the ages of 18 a n d 24 w i l l increase 5 2 % , c o m p a r e d w i t h o n l y 2 % f r o m 1950 t o 1960. T h e next higher age g r o u p , however, those f r o m 25 t o 3 9 , w i l l increase b y o n l y 3 % . T h o s e u n d e r 18 a n d over 40 w i l l grow a t a b o u t t h e average r a t e , or some 1 5 % d u r i n g t h e decade. T h e great increase i n t h e 18 t o 24 age group is s p e c t a c u l a r i n itself, b u t its i m p a c t w i l l be m a g n i f i e d because most of t h e g r o w t h w i l l occur i n t h e l a s t h a l f of t h e decade. T h i s has i m p o r t a n t i m p l i c a t i o n s f o r business. D u r i n g t h e e a r l y 1960's there w i l l be a c o n t i n u e d shortage of s k i l l e d l a b o r a n d college graduates. T h e r a t e of f a m i l y f o r m a t i o n w i l l be r e l a t i v e l y constant. D u r i n g the l a s t h a l f of t h e decade, however, these c o n d i t i o n s w i l l change s h a r p l y as these y o u n g people come o n t o t h e l a b o r m a r k e t s i n i n c r e a s i n g n u m b e r s . T h e y w i l l be m a r r y i n g , a n d b u y i n g s m a l l homes, l o w p r i c e d cars, a n d household a p p l i a n c e s — m o s t l y o n credit. T h e s e t h i n g s w i l l n o t h a p p e n , of course, unless there a r e j o b s enough t o go a r o u n d , b u t w e believe t h a t t h i s w i l l be t h e case. T h e 25 t o 39 age group w i l l increase v e r y l i t t l e . T h i s is n o t w i t h o u t i t s i m p l i c a t i o n s f o r business. T h e m a r k e t for h i g h e r p r i c e d cars, homes, a p p l i ances, a n d so o n w i l l necessarily grow less r a p i d l y . T h e i m p o r t a n c e of p r i c e i s expected t o be even greater t h a n i t is t o d a y . T o p r e d i c t t h a t t e c h n o l o g i c a l advances i n t h e t e n y e a r s a h e a d w i l l c o n t i n u e a t a b o u t t o d a y ' s pace seems a v e r y c o n s e r v a t i v e a s s u m p t i o n i n d e e d . I f w e do n o better t h a n we are n o w d o i n g , t h e p r o d u c t i v i t y of l a b o r a n d c a p i t a l c o m b i n e d s h o u l d continue t o rise a t a n average r a t e of 2 % p e r y e a r . T h e s e gains i n p r o d u c t i v i t y cannot be t a k e n for g r a n t e d . T h e y m u s t be created b y i n d i v i d u a l s a n d business c o r p o r a t i o n s — t h e r e m u s t be adequate i n c e n t i v e f o r s a v i n g s a n d i n v e s t m e n t , a n d profits m u s t be large enough t o encourage r i s k t a k i n g . A n y r e s t r i c t i o n s o n c a p i t a l f o r m a t i o n w i l l l i m i t p r o d u c t i v i t y gains. I a m a s s u m i n g , therefore, t h a t these necessary c o n d i t i o n s w i l l be present. If we a d d to t h e 2 % g a i n i n p r o d u c t i v i t y a n average increase i n p o p u l a t i o n of 1 . 5 % p e r y e a r , w e m u s t conclude t h a t gross n a t i o n a l p r o d u c t s h o u l d increase a t a n average r a t e of 3 . 5 % t h r o u g h o u t t h e 1960's. B y 1970 t h e gross n a t i o n a l p r o d u c t w i l l be a p p r o x i m a t e l y $700 b i l l i o n a t present prices as c o m p a r e d w i t h a n e s t i m a t e d $475 b i l l i o n i n 1959. T h e s e projections assume t h a t there w i l l be n o serious depression s i m i l a r t o t h a t of t h e 1930's b u t t h a t w e s h a l l h a v e a n o c c a s i o n a l m i l d recession. B u s i n e s s fluctuations are i n e v i t a b l e i n a society where economic decisions a r e d e c e n t r a l i z e d . T h e s e estimates also assume no s u b s t a n t i a l change i n t h e w a r s i t u a t i o n i n t h e decade of t h e 1960's, b u t c o n t i n u a t i o n of t h e " c o l d w a r . " CHEMICAL MARKETING IN THE COMPETITIVE SIXTIES Advances in Chemistry; American Chemical Society: Washington, DC, 1959.

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Productivity T h e index of i n d u s t r i a l p r o d u c t i o n p r e p a r e d b y the F e d e r a l R e s e r v e B o a r d is now about 155, representing a rise i n the o u t p u t of factories a n d m i n e s i n p h y s i c a l terms of a b o u t 5 5 % since the 1947-1949 p e r i o d . I t w i l l rise t o a p e a k of 160 to 165 l a t e next y e a r . T h e index of p r o d u c t i o n of c h e m i c a l s a n d a l l i e d p r o d u c t s is n o w a b o u t 210. I t w i l l rise to a p e a k of 225 i n 1960. T h e r e m a y be some decline i n p r o d u c t i o n d u r i n g 1961 or 1962 because of excesses w h i c h u s u a l l y develop d u r i n g periods of p r o s p e r i t y , b u t the t r e n d of p r o d u c t i o n i n t h i s c o u n t r y is u p w a r d . I n d u s t r i a l p r o d u c t i o n is expected to continue r i s i n g i n the second h a l f of the 1960's, w h e n f a m i l y f o r m a t i o n , r e s i d e n t i a l c o n s t r u c t i o n , a u t o m o b i l e p r o d u c t i o n , a n d i n d u s t r i a l e x p a n s i o n w i l l be s i g n i f i c a n t l y higher t h a n t h e y are t o d a y . W e expect the index of i n d u s t r i a l p r o d u c t i o n i n 1970 to be about 225, representing a n a n n u a l g r o w t h rate of a b o u t 4 % over the next 11 y e a r s . O u t p u t of the c h e m i c a l i n d u s t r y m a y reach a n i n d e x of 400 b y 1970, representing a n a n n u a l g r o w t h rate of about 6 % . A t t a i n m e n t of these g r o w t h rates over the next decade w i l l r e q u i r e e x p a n s i o n of our present research p r o g r a m s , w i t h consequent d e v e l o p m e n t a n d i n t r o d u c t i o n of m a n y new p r o d u c t s , a v e r y large v o l u m e of new i n v e s t m e n t , r e s t r a i n t of p r i c e increases, r e s t r a i n t on the expansion of nondefense a c t i v i t i e s of the F e d e r a l G o v e r n m e n t , a n d a s u b s t a n t i a l rise i n e m p l o y m e n t . T h e 1960*8 w i l l be c h a r a c t e r i z e d i n most lines of business b y intense c o m p e t i t i o n ; t h i s w i l l c e r t a i n l y be t r u e of the c h e m i c a l i n d u s t r y . W a r - i n d u c e d shortages, so p r e v a l e n t after W o r l d W a r I I , w h i c h c o n t i n u e d u n t i l w e l l after the K o r e a n W a r , are t h i n g s of the past. M a n y i m p o r t a n t c h e m i c a l p r o d u c t s are i n o v e r s u p p l y t o d a y , a n d I d o u b t i f t h i s s i t u a t i o n w i l l change m u c h before 1965. E v e n w i t h the accelerated rate of business e x p a n s i o n i n the l a s t h a l f of the next decade, shortages of p r o d u c t i o n c a p a c i t y i n o u r i n d u s t r y s h o u l d be i n f r e q u e n t a n d of short d u r a t i o n . T h i s c a n o n l y m e a n t h a t we w i l l h a v e t o step u p o u r sales a c t i v i t i e s , a n d a d v e r t i s i n g w i l l be no exception. F e w people r e a l i z e t h a t a d v e r t i s i n g is a $10 b i l l i o n i n d u s t r y . T o t a l n a t i o n a l a d v e r t i s i n g expenditures m a y , i n f a c t , reach $11 b i l l i o n t h i s y e a r . A d v e r t i s i n g has i n the past decade g r o w n m u c h more r a p i d l y t h a n i n d u s t r i a l p r o d u c t i o n , gross n a t i o n a l p r o d u c t , or a l m o s t a n y other index of economic a c t i v i t y . T h e e x p l a n a t i o n is to be f o u n d , i n the f a c t t h a t c o m p e t i t i o n has become more intense d i r e c t l y i n p r o p o r t i o n t o the increase i n the a v a i l a b l e s u p p l y of a l l goods a n d services. T h e r e are no r e l i a b l e estimates of t o t a l a d v e r t i s i n g expenditures of the c h e m i c a l i n d u s t r y . F o r one t h i n g , the c h e m i c a l i n d u s t r y does not h a v e v e r y w e l l m a r k e d b o u n d a r i e s . H o w e v e r , we spend a t least $300,000,000 a y e a r t o a d v e r t i s e our p r o d u c t s . B y 1970 the c h e m i c a l i n d u s t r y w i l l be s p e n d i n g $750,000,000 for a d v e r t i s i n g , or a b o u t 1.75% of e v e r y sales d o l l a r . W e c a n n o t assume t h a t a d v e r t i s i n g b y the c h e m i c a l i n d u s t r y t e n y e a r s f r o m n o w w i l l be a b o u t the same as i t is n o w , o n l y m u c h bigger. W e h a v e seen changes i n the p a s t , a n d we s h a l l see more i n the f u t u r e . T h e r e m a y w e l l be shifts i n the audience we seek t o r e a c h , i n the p r o d u c t s a n d services w e t e l l t h e m a b o u t , a n d i n the m e d i a we use t o do the j o b . Some trends are a l r e a d y apparent.

CHEMICAL MARKETING IN THE COMPETITIVE SIXTIES Advances in Chemistry; American Chemical Society: Washington, DC, 1959.

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Advertising Trends O n e change w e c a n p r e d i c t w i t h some degree of assurance i s t h a t w e s h a l l be t a l k i n g t o l a r g e r a n d larger audiences. M o s t c h e m i c a l p r o d u c t s d o n o t r e a c h t h e u l t i m a t e consumer i n t h e i r o r i g i n a l f o r m , b u t are used as ingredients i n t h e p r o d u c t s of o t h e r i n d u s t r i e s — t e x t i l e , a u t o m o t i v e , e l e c t r i c a l , p a p e r , a n d a host of others. M o s t c h e m i c a l a d v e r t i s i n g h a s i n t h e p a s t been d i r e c t e d t o r a t h e r n a r r o w i n d u s t r y audiences, a n d these are, of course, t h e cheapest t o r e a c h . C o m p e t i t i o n i s , however, f o r c i n g us more a n d more t o a d v e r t i s e o v e r t h e heads of o u r d i r e c t customers t o create preferences b y t h e c o n s u m i n g p u b l i c for goods i n w h i c h our o w n p r o d u c t s are i m p o r t a n t ingredients. I t costs a great d e a l m o r e t o r e a c h a m a s s audience w i t h a d v e r t i s i n g t h a n , f o r e x a m p l e , t h e m a n a g e m e n t s of companies m a n u f a c t u r i n g a i r - c o n d i t i o n i n g e q u i p m e n t . I w o u l d expect t h e t r e n d t o w a r d m o r e consumer a d v e r t i s i n g b y t h e c h e m i c a l i n d u s t r y t o continue i n t h e y e a r s a h e a d . M a n y other i n d u s t r i e s w i l l be faced w i t h s i m i l a r c o n d i t i o n s , a n d t h e y w i l l be r a i s i n g t h e i r a d v e r t i s i n g voices. T h e sheer v o l u m e of a d v e r t i s i n g w i l l m a k e i t more a n d more difficult f o r t h e v o i c e of a single c o m p a n y t o be h e a r d . E a c h of us w i l l h a v e to speak more c l e a r l y a n d m o r e t o t h e p o i n t . T h e r e is another t r e n d w h i c h is a l r e a d y e v i d e n t a n d w h i c h w i l l become m o r e a n d m o r e i m p o r t a n t as w e m o v e i n t o the 1960's. P r i c e a n d q u a l i t y differentials are b e c o m i n g less i m p o r t a n t c o m p e t i t i v e weapons. N o single m a n u f a c t u r e r has a m o n o p o l y o n m o d e r n t e c h n o l o g y . S e l l i n g is more a n d m o r e based o n a w i d e range of t e c h n i c a l services t h a t c a n be offered t o o u r customers. W e are a d v e r t i s i n g n o t o n l y o u r p r o d u c t s , b u t also t h e services t h a t a r e a v a i l a b l e t o the customer t o m a k e i t as s i m p l e as possible f o r h i m t o use t h e m . A t t h e same t i m e corporate r e p u t a t i o n is b e c o m i n g more a n d more i m p o r t a n t t o c h e m i c a l m a n u f a c t u r e r s , as t h e y become more dependent o n t h e choice of i n d i v i d u a l consumers. A l l of u s h a v e confidence i n those p r o d u c t s w h i c h w e k n o w t h r o u g h p e r s o n a l experience or b y r e p u t a t i o n , a n d w e hesitate t o t a k e a chance o n those w h i c h are u n k n o w n t o us. T h e less the p u b l i c k n o w s about y o u t h r o u g h a c t u a l use of y o u r p r o d u c t s , the more y o u h a v e t o t e l l t h e m a b o u t y o u r self, i f y o u w i s h t h e m t o prefer a n a r t i c l e c o n t a i n i n g s o m e t h i n g y o u produce. T h i s means i n s t i t u t i o n a l a d v e r t i s i n g , w h i c h h a s as i t s purpose e x p a n d i n g the p u b l i c ' s k n o w l e d g e of j u s t w h o y o u are, w h a t y o u d o , a n d w h a t y o u s t a n d f o r — a n d i n s t i t u t i o n a l a d v e r t i s i n g is also r a t h e r expensive. Preparing Markets for New Products T h e r e is another a r e a i n w h i c h w e c a n m a k e f a r m o r e effective use of a d v e r t i s i n g t h a n w e h a v e i n t h e p a s t , a n d t h a t is i n p r e p a r i n g m a r k e t s f o r new p r o d u c t s . A v e r y considerable percentage of t h e 1970 sales of t h e c h e m i c a l i n d u s t r y w i l l be of p r o d u c t s w h i c h are n o t n o w o n t h e m a r k e t — s t i l l i n t h e l a b o r a t o r y , or i n t h e e a r l y stages of development. S h o r t e n i n g t h e t i m e between i n v e n t i o n a n d m a r k e t i n g c a n m e a n a great d e a l i n t e r m s of increased p r o f i t s . I see n o reason w h y m a n y p r o d u c t s of t h e c h e m i c a l i n d u s t r y c a n n o t be i n t e n s i v e l y a d v e r t i s e d before t h e y are a v a i l a b l e f o r purchase. L a u n c h i n g a n e w c h e m i c a l p r o d u c t requires t e l l i n g a l l t h e p r o s p e c t i v e users of i t s properties a n d i t s p o t e n t i a l a p p l i c a t i o n s . T h e greater t h e interest, t h e greater t h e t e n d e n c y f o r p o t e n t i a l users t o speculate a b o u t possible a p p l i c a t i o n s i n t h e i r o w n operations. CHEMICAL MARKETING IN THE COMPETITIVE SIXTIES Advances in Chemistry; American Chemical Society: Washington, DC, 1959.

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A d v e r t i s i n g c a n spread t h i s i n f o r m a t i o n a n d create t h i s sort of interest more c h e a p l y t h a n c a n d i r e c t contacts. A d v e r t i s i n g c a n n o t replace such d i r e c t contacts, b u t i t c a n u s e f u l l y s u p p l e m e n t t h e m , i f used more e x t e n s i v e l y a n d m u c h e a r l i e r i n the life c y c l e of a p r o d u c t .

Downloaded by CORNELL UNIV on September 2, 2016 | http://pubs.acs.org Publication Date: June 17, 1959 | doi: 10.1021/ba-1959-0024.ch005

Problems A d v e r t i s i n g represents for a l l of us a v e r y s u b s t a n t i a l a n d g r o w i n g i t e m of expense, y e t our decisions as to how m u c h we w i l l spend for a d v e r t i s i n g are n e c e s s a r i l y based on r a t h e r meager d a t a . T h e size of a d v e r t i s i n g budgets is often d e t e r m i n e d b y how m u c h w a s spent l a s t y e a r , or b y next y e a r ' s sales forecast, or b y a guess as t o w h a t a c o m p e t i t o r is spending. N o n e of these has a n y d i r e c t r e l a t i o n s h i p to w h a t a n a d v e r t i s i n g p r o g r a m c a n r e a s o n a b l y be expected to c o n t r i b u t e to f u t u r e profits. O u r best guide is u s u a l l y experience a n d j u d g m e n t . B u t t h i s is r e a l l y not good enough, a n d a d v e r t i s i n g m a n a g e m e n t has a r e s p o n s i b i l i t y t o find s o m e t h i n g better i f i t c a n be f o u n d . I t c a n , if we m a k e a d e t e r m i n e d effort t o develop the a r t of a d v e r t i s i n g research. I c a l l a d v e r t i s i n g research a n a r t r a t h e r t h a n a science. I n its present state t h i s is a more a c c u r a t e d e s i g n a t i o n . Someone has s a i d t h a t the purpose of a large p a r t of w h a t is t e r m e d a d v e r t i s i n g research is s i m p l y t o a d v e r t i s e a d v e r t i s i n g . A n o t h e r p a r t s i m p l y seeks t o measure the success of a n i n d i v i d u a l a d or a c a m p a i g n i n c a p t u r i n g the a t t e n t i o n of readers. M e a s u r e m e n t s are necessary to research, b u t t h e y are not of themselves research, w h i c h s h o u l d seek a n d find new k n o w l e d g e . W e need to k n o w how a n d w h y a d v e r t i s i n g w o r k s , a n d to d o t h i s we m u s t m a k e greater use of m e n t r a i n e d i n the s o c i a l sciences. A b o v e a l l we need t o d i s c o v e r j u s t w h a t effect p a s t a d v e r t i s i n g has h a d on sales, so t h a t we c a n m o r e i n t e l l i g e n t l y e s t i m a t e the benefits t o be o b t a i n e d f r o m future a d v e r t i s i n g . I f we c a n do t h i s , our decisions on how m u c h t o spend w i l l be more s o u n d l y based. B e c a u s e of the large n u m b e r of v a r i a b l e s o p e r a t i n g i n a n y m a r k e t i n g s i t u a t i o n , i s o l a t i n g the effect of a single v a r i a b l e , such as a d v e r t i s i n g , has u n t i l r e c e n t l y seemed a hopeless t a s k . B u t n o w , w i t h the a v a i l a b i l i t y of electronic computers a n d w i t h the g r o w t h since the w a r of operations r e s e a r c h , there seems to be a r e a l p o s s i b i l i t y t h a t the p r o b l e m c a n be s o l v e d . I t m a y seem r a t h e r v i s i o n a r y to a t t e m p t to describe a n y t h i n g as complex as the m a r k e t p l a c e b y a m a t h e m a t i c a l m o d e l , b u t the evidence suggests t h a t i t c a n be done. M u c h t i m e a n d m o n e y a n d — a b o v e a l l — p a t i e n c e are necess a r y , b u t the possible r e w a r d s are v e r y great. A l l advertisers s h o u l d as a m a t t e r of p o l i c y devote some m i n i m u m p e r c e n t age of t h e i r a d v e r t i s i n g budgets to a d v e r t i s i n g research. T h i s figure m i g h t l i e between 1 a n d 2 % . Some s u b s t a n t i a l p a r t of t h i s research a p p r o p r i a t i o n s h o u l d be devoted t o d e t e r m i n i n g the effect of a d v e r t i s i n g on sales. I c a n t h i n k of no i n d u s t r y better q u a l i f i e d t o increase the scientific content of a d v e r t i s i n g research t h a n the c h e m i c a l i n d u s t r y . I f a d v e r t i s i n g is t o p l a y effectively t h e role assigned t o i t i n the c o m p e t i t i v e 6lVs, advertisers m u s t do e v e r y t h i n g i n t h e i r p o w e r t o m a k e i t a s h a r p a n d efficient t o o l .

CHEMICAL MARKETING IN THE COMPETITIVE SIXTIES Advances in Chemistry; American Chemical Society: Washington, DC, 1959.