Chemical world This Week might be unsuccessful—they're not viruses anymore. That tonsils and adenoids secrete more γΑ-immunoglobulin in females than in males may explain why the 1960 census shows incidence of Hodgkin's dis ease as 2.8 per 100,000 males, but only 1.8 per 100,000 females. Linear accelerators are now re placing cobalt-60 sources as genera tors of high-energy radiation needed to reach deep-seated lymph nodes for radiotherapy. A number of drugs have likewise been found effective against Hodgkin's disease.
64 million barrels of oil a day, in cluding energy from oil, gas, coal, nuclear fuels, and falling water. Behind Humble's higher esti mates of the equivalent oil con sumption are mostly environmental concerns. These include delays in getting nuclear-powered generating plants on stream, delays in getting stack-gas desulfurization processes for coal-powered plants into use, the losses connected with fuel oil desulfurization processes, and lower efficiencies of automobile en gines designed to minimize pollut ants in exhausts. U.S. demand for liquid petroleum ENERGY: will reach 28 million barrels a day Growth forecast down in 1985, Humble predicts. Produc U.S. demand for energy will grow tion in 1985 from domestic sources, more slowly than previously including Alaska, will be about 11 thought, according to forecasts by million barrels a day, about the Humble Oil & Refining. The de same production as this year. Do mand will grow 4.3% annually mestic production, which is now through 1985, about the same leveling off, will not expand much growth rate forecast for the gross in the next few years because the national product, say Dr. R. J. Howe price of oil is not high enough to and R. D. Wilson of Humble's warrant high-cost exploration and newly formed energy policy de drilling in the U.S., many producers velopment section. Earlier fore claim. Thus imports from the Eas casts by the company and by others tern Hemisphere will have to in indicated a growth rate exceeding crease, Humble says. Crude oil that of GNP. from this source will increase from Any optimism based on this fore 6% of U.S. supply in 1970 to 46% cast about averting a shortage of of the supply in 1985, or 13 million energy, however, must be tempered barrels a day. by a necessarily large dependence on crude oil from the Eastern Hem WORLD NITROGEN: isphere. Despite Humble's forecast of a Troubled years ahead lower energy growth rate, the com The men who make and sell ferti pany has increased its estimate of lizer in this country gathered last total U.S. energy consumption in week at West Virginia's incompar 1985 in terms of oil equivalent by able Greenbrier Hotel in White 2 million barrels a day (42 gallons Sulphur Springs to hear how the per barrel) from an estimate the men who make and sell fertilizer in company presented last year to Con other countries view the world fer gress. The estimate of 1985 energy tilizer situation. What they heard demand is about 135 quadrillion about the nitrogen end of the busi B.t.u. annually, the equivalent of ness confirmed their own fears— U.S. energy demand will grow 90% in 15 years Fuel source
Consumption (oil equivalent, millions of barrels per day) 1960
Per cent of total
1970
Per cent of total
1985
Per cent of total
Oil
9.5
46%
15.3
45%
28
44%
Gas
6.4
29
11.1
33
13.4
21
Coal
4.5
22
6.1
18
12.7
20
a
0
7.5
11
1.3
2
Nuclear
0
a
0
0
Hydro
0.9
3
1.3
4
0
a
0
1.3
2
100%
64.2
100%
Synthetic gas TOTAL a None or negligible amount. 22
C&EN JUNE 21, 1971
0
a
21.3
100%
0
33.8
Source: Humble Oil & Refining
there will be several more difficult years ahead. Jan M. Boudewijn, director gen eral of Europe's nitrogen cartel, Nitrex, A.G., told the Fertilizer In stitute's first annual marketing con ference that the world doesn't need any more nitrogen capacity beyond that already operating or planned until at least 1975-76. In fact, he says that some of the planned proj ects should be scrapped if construc tion hasn't already started. Mr. Boudewijn's reasoning is painfully simple. Based upon ex isting capacity, disclosed construc tion plans, some debottlenecking, and some replacement of small units with newer and larger units, he estimates that world nitrogen capacity will be 64.7 million tons by 1975—76. World consumption, how ever, will be 54.4 million tons (42.9 million tons for fertilizer and 11.5 million tons for industrial nitro gen). This means that the indus try will be operating at 85% of ca pacity, an operating rate that he considers the absolute minimum at which the industry can make a rea sonable profit. During the past two years, he says, nitrogen pro ducers' operating rates fell to 80% or below; domestic and foreign pro ducers know what this has meant in distressed prices and disappear ing profits. Besides disclosed expansions, Mr. Boudewijn expects that the Communist countries of Europe and Asia and developing countries throughout the world will be install ing new capacity. In addition, many power plants and other plants that use sulfur-containing fuel will be forced by pollution control laws to take sulfur dioxide out of their waste gas. The sulfur dioxide could be converted to ammonium sulfate or ammonium phosphate, which would bring additional pres sure on the precarious capacity-de mand balance. Mr. Boudewijn suggests that cap ital earmarked for new nitrogen ca pacity can be put to better use if it is directed toward marketing and distribution bottlenecks that now impede growth of fertilizer con sumption. Many countries that need to grow more food and have not yet reached optimum nitrogen consumption levels cannot econom ically transport, market, and dis tribute the amount of fertilizer they would like to use. This can be overcome, but it will take money.
