Worldwide Polyurethane Markets - ACS Symposium Series (ACS

1 Worldwide Polyurethane Markets PETER J. MANNO

Downloaded by CITY UNIV LONDON on April 26, 2016 | http://pubs.acs.org Publication Date: November 30, 1981 | doi: 10.1021/bk-1981-0172.ch001

The Upjohn Company, Polymer Chemicals Division, P.O. Box 685, La Porte, TX 77571

Discussing any worldwide topic is an awesome task at best and fraught with many pitfalls. Political and social and economic differences combine to not only confuse the current situation; but, also obscure the future outlook as well. The next decade will be shaped by many of the familiar economic, social and political factors widely discussed in the media. Some of the key problems that will affect many of the countries of the world include: •Energy • Inflation • Economic Instability •Protectionism • Economic Nationalism • International Balance of Payments •Political Instability To properly assess the impact of these factors would be far beyond the scope of this paper. Nevertheless, a good market researcher enjoys facing up to the challenge, and I shall endeavor to forecast the 1990 worldwide polyurethane markets. Let me caution you that a market study is basically a current snapshot of the market and its outlook, and the future will probably differ from projections. How close it comes to the actual situation is a measure of the market researcher's ability. Worldwide Demand Polyurethane products historically have proven to be one of the most versatile plastic materials available. The wide range of physical properties from supersoft flexible foam; to tough elastomers; and to long wearing coatings has resulted in many end use applications. As a result, the 1980fs will begin with a worldwide demand approaching 6,652 million pounds (3 million t), 0097-6156/81/0172-0009$05.00/0 © 1981 American Chemical Society Edwards et al.; Urethane Chemistry and Applications ACS Symposium Series; American Chemical Society: Washington, DC, 1981.


10

URETHANE CHEMISTRY AND

APPLICATIONS

as shown i n Table I . The t r a d i t i o n a l volume l e a d e r among the polyurethane products continues to be f l e x i b l e foam, p r i n c i p a l l y used f o r f u r n i t u r e and t r a n s p o r t a t i o n a p p l i c a t i o n s . Despite the slowdown i n the U. S. c o n s t r u c t i o n , the worldwide demand f o r energy-saving r i g i d foam i n s u l a t i o n should continue s t r o n g . Elastomer demand i s centered i n shoe s o l e and auto a p p l i c a t i o n s . The balance of polyurethane demand i s rounded out by a v a r i e t y of polyurethane products i n c l u d i n g adhesives, s e a l a n t s , f i b e r s , and c o a t i n g s . The U. S./Canada and West European r e g i o n s are the volume leaders accounting f o r 35% and 33% of the 1980 t o t a l r e s p e c t i v e l y . The h i g h l y i n d u s t r i a l i z e d c o u n t r i e s i n these r e g i o n s have long recognized the e x c e l l e n t cost/performance b e n e f i t s of p o l y u r e thane products. I n a d d i t i o n , s t r o n g consumer demand f o r f u r n i t u r e , bedding, autos, and i n s u l a t i o n has been a s i g n i f i c a n t f a c t o r i n the growth of polyurethane products f o r these a p p l i c a t i o n s . The Japan/Far East demand w i l l reach 889 m i l l i o n pounds i n 1980, as consumer demand continues to i n c r e a s e s t e a d i l y for p o l y u r e t h a n e - c o n t a i n i n g products. The Middle E a s t / A f r i c a / East European r e g i o n i s s l o w l y developing as a polyurethane market, but i s s e v e r e l y c o n s t r a i n e d by economic and p o l i t i c a l problems. The f u t u r e worldwide demand f o r polyurethanes w i l l depend on the net r e s u l t of a s e r i e s of key impetus and c o n s t r a i n t f a c t o r s : Demand Impetus •Conservation of energy •Replacement of n a t u r a l m a t e r i a l s • P r o d u c t i v i t y and economics •Safety and H e a l t h •Aesthetics Demand C o n s t r a i n t s •World economic s i t u a t i o n •Increased c o s t s and p r i c e s •Some market s a t u r a t i o n •Governmental r e s t r i c t i o n s The impact of these f a c t o r s w i l l vary from country to country and i t i s d i f f i c u l t to q u a n t i f y . However, the net e f f e c t w i l l be an o v e r a l l 7.0% annual growth i n polyurethane demand to a 13,051 m i l l i o n pound l e v e l i n 1990 as shown i n Table I . The r e l a t i v e ranking of the country grouping w i l l remain the same as i n 1980. A d i s c u s s i o n of the polyurethane growth prospects for v a r i o u s country groupings w i l l be d e t a i l e d i n the f o l l o w i n g s e c t i o n s of t h i s paper.

Edwards et al.; Urethane Chemistry and Applications ACS Symposium Series; American Chemical Society: Washington, DC, 1981.

1.

MANNO


United

Worldwide Polyurethane Markets

11

States/Canada

The United States f i n a l l y succumbed to s p i r a l l i n g i n f l a t i o n and i n t e r e s t r a t e s d u r i n g the f i r s t q u a r t e r of 1980, and the long heralded r e c e s s i o n was upon us. As a r e s u l t , many estimates of 1980 demand w i l l r e s u l t i n growth r a t e s t o 1990 t h a t are u n r e a l i s t i c a l l y h i g h . Thus, some c a u t i o n should be e x e r c i s e d i n i n t e r p r e t i n g the ten year growth r a t e s . The Canadian economic a c t i v i t y i s showing s i g n s of f o l l o w i n g the U.S. p a t t e r n d e s p i t e a reasonably good year i n 1979. With 70% of the Canadian chemical exports d e s t i n e d f o r the U.S. markets, a mid-1980 r e c e s s i o n seems q u i t e probable. This c l o s e l i n k i n g of the two economies w i l l probably continue through t h i s next decade. Both the U.S. and Canadian demand f o r polyurethanes w i l l continue to e s c a l a t e during the " E i g h t i e s " , d e s p i t e the temporary setback t h i s y e a r , and w i l l t o t a l 2,350 m i l l i o n pounds as shown i n Table I I . The performance of polyurethane products has r e s u l ted i n p e n e t r a t i o n of a number of key markets, p a r t i c u l a r l y t r a n s p o r t a t i o n and c o n s t r u c t i o n . Despite s o a r i n g raw m a t e r i a l s c o s t s , polyurethane w i l l continue to make headway as energy cons e r v a t i o n requirements and recognize i t s s u p e r i o r i n s u l a t i o n prop e r t i e s . Smaller more f u e l - e f f i c i e n t automobiles w i l l use l i b e r a l amounts of polyurethane elastomers i n a v a r i e t y of l i g h t w e i g h t e x t e r i o r body and s t y l i n g a p p l i c a t i o n s . New uses of p o l y u r e thanes w i l l add a d d i t i o n a l demand t h a t could p r o p e l l U.S./Canada 1990 usage to l e v e l s w e l l i n excess of the 4,850 m i l l i o n pounds forecasted. U.S./Canada Markets. F l e x i b l e foam w i l l continue to dominate the polyurethane end uses. I t s s u p e r i o r cushioning propert i e s w i l l m a i n t a i n an almost 100% p e n e t r a t i o n of f u r n i t u r e and t r a n s p o r t a t i o n markets. F u r n i t u r e demand f o r f l e x i b l e foam w i l l f o l l o w consumer demand f o r upholstered f u r n i t u r e . Some steady growth i s expected f o r bedding a p p l i c a t i o n s , but w i l l probably not exceed 30% of the mattress u n i t s by 1990. T r a n s p o r t a t i o n markets have h i s t o r i c a l l y been a major user of polyurethane products. Molded f l e x i b l e foam c u s h i o n i n g prov i d e s s u p e r i o r s e a t i n g and s i g n i f i c a n t r e d u c t i o n s i n assembly l a b o r c o s t s . This demand w i l l experience some decrease e a r l y i n the 8 0 s as autos become s m a l l e r but should recover l a t e r i n the decade. F l e x i b l e polyurethane foam carpet underlay i s used as e i t h e r prime or rebonded foam. The polyurethane foam o f f e r s s u p e r i o r cushioning and i s p a r t i c u l a r l y a t t r a c t i v e f o r c o n t r a c t i n s t a l l a t i o n s or premium c a r p e t s . The prime foam usage should i n c r e a s e s t e a d i l y to about 310 m i l l i o n pounds i n 1990. The demand f o r rebonded foam carpet underlay depends on the a v a i l a b i l i t y of scrap foam and w i l l probably not exceed 300 m i l l i o n pounds annually. f



12

URETHANE CHEMISTRY AND APPLICATIONS

R i g i d foam uses w i l l average a 11.2% annual increase and reach 1,608 m i l l i o n pounds by 1990. Most of the impetus w i l l come from the i n s u l a t i o n use of r i g i d foam f o r b u i l d i n g and construction. B u i l d i n g and c o n s t r u c t i o n use of polyurethane products w i l l increase at a record pace d u r i n g the 1980's. The slow down i n r e s i d e n t i a l housing s t a r t s i n 1980 w i l l have a temporary e f f e c t on the i n c r e a s i n g demand f o r polyurethane foam r e s i d e n t i a l sheathing. The r e t u r n t o normal housing s t a r t s (about 1981-1982) should f u r t h e r a c c e l e r a t e the demand. Commercial r o o f i n g a p p l i c a t i o n s have made s i g n i f i c a n t use of polyurethane r i g i d foam panels f o r the t y p i c a l asphalt b u i l t - u p roof c o n s t r u c t i o n . The a s p h a l t - f r e e , s i n g l e - p l y membrane r o o f i n g may w e l l use t h i c k e r l a y e r s (3 i n c h or more) of i n s u l a t i o n t o maximize energy conservation and be i d e a l l y s u i t e d f o r polyurethane foam. R e s i d e n t i a l sheathing w i l l probably be the f a s t e s t growing market as consumers attempt t o o f f s e t r i s i n g f u e l and energy c o s t s by i n c r e a s i n g the amount and e f f i c i e n c y of t h e i r r e s i d e n t i a l i n s u l a t i o n . Polyurethane r i g i d foam i n s u l a t i o n a l s o can be a p p l i e d as a spray system t o a v a r i e t y of s u r f a c e s . R e t r o - f i t t i n g commercial r o o f s as w e l l as i n s u l a t i o n of tanks and pipes has had i n c r e a s i n g acceptance. The next decade w i l l r e q u i r e even f u r t h e r conservat i o n of energy i n a l l manufacturing f a c i l i t i e s , and p r o v i d e an i d e a l market f o r sprayed r i g i d foam i n s u l a t i o n . By the end of t h i s decade, the demand f o r spray systems could r e a d i l y double the current l e v e l . Polyurethane elastomer demand w i l l more than double i n volume during the 1980 s and e a s i l y reach 552 m i l l i o n pounds. Over 60% w i l l be f o r t r a n s p o r t a t i o n use as U.S. auto manufacturers work t o meet f e d e r a l f u e l economy and bumper damage standards. The use of polyurethane elastomers f o r t r a n s p o r t a t i o n markets has received i n c r e a s i n g a t t e n t i o n from the auto i n d u s t r y . The need f o r improved f u e l economy t o meet government standards has focused on l i g h t weight m a t e r i a l s , and polyurethane elastomers have been a prime candidate. T h e i r e x c e l l e n t p h y s i c a l p r o p e r t i e s have been u t i l i z e d i n f l e x i b l e bumper f a s c i a , as w e l l as more r i g i d t r i m and decorat i v e body p a r t s . Recent development of g l a s s - f i l l e d polyurethane elastomers composition are being t e s t e d f o r auto f e n d e r s , doors, and trunk l i d s . Widespread use of polyurethane elastomer e x t e r n a l body components could r e a d i l y add an a d d i t i o n a l 100 m i l l i o n pounds to t h i s t o t a l . Polyurethane elastomer shoe s o l e s have r e c e i v e d wide acceptance f o r women's f a s h i o n shoes as w e l l as a v a r i e t y of s p o r t s footwear. The l i g h t w e i g h t m i c r o c e l l u l a r shoe s o l e s have permitted wide s t y l i n g f l e x i b i l i t y i n women's shoes. F i n e d e t a i l s simul a t i n g wood, c o r k , l e a t h e r , and h a n d - s t i t c h i n g can be r e a d i l y r e produced. New s t y l e sports shoes i n c o r p o r a t e m u l t i - c o l o r and m u l t i - d e n s i t y s o l e s . Other polyurethane elastomers w i l l f i n d ready use i n h i g h performance a p p l i c a t i o n s u t i l i z i n g t h e i r superi o r wear, c o r r o s i o n and a b r a s i o n r e s i s t a n c e p r o p e r t i e s . T



1.

MANNO


13

The coatings/adhesives and s e a l a n t s category w i l l post the h i g h e s t growth r a t e and average 11.5% a n n u a l l y . Polyurethane c o a t i n g s ( i n p a r t i c u l a r h i g h s o l i d s p a i n t s f o r autos) and the emerging use of polyurethane binder adhesives (e.g. foundry c o r e s , and woodchip p a r t i c l e b o a r d ) could develop s u b s t a n t i a l market demand. Polyurethane*s v a l u e as an adhesive or b i n d e r continues to enjoy e x c e l l e n t acceptance by the foundry i n d u s t r y . T h e i r use as b i n d e r s f o r sand cores used i n metal c a s t i n g p r o v i d e s a f a s t , low-energy consuming technology. More r e c e n t l y , isocyanates have been used as b i n d e r s f o r woodchip p a r t i c l e b o a r d , or formed as a bonded woodchip core between t h i n wood veneers. The i s o cyanate c o n t a i n i n g products o f f e r an e x c e l l e n t w e a t h e r - r e s i s tant p a r t i c l e b o a r d , as w e l l as a manufacturing process t h a t i s formaldehyde-free and consumes l e s s energy. L a t i n America L a t i n America i s u s u a l l y d e f i n e d t o i n c l u d e Mexico, The Caribbean, C e n t r a l and South America. T h i s market r e g i o n i n c l u d e s about 370 m i l l i o n i n h a b i t a n t s . The i n d i v i d u a l c o u n t r i e s r e p r e sent a wide range of p o l i t i c a l , s o c i a l , and economical s c e n a r i o s . High i n f l a t i o n r a t e s and l a r g e trade balance d e f i c i t s are p r e v a l e n t i n many of the c o u n t r i e s . L i m i t e d i n f r a s t r u c t u r e (e.g. highways, p u b l i c u t i l i t i e s , e t c . ) has s e r i o u s l y hampered t h e i r economic growth. However, s t r o n g raw m a t e r i a l p o s i t i o n s (e.g. petroleum, metal o r e s , e t c . ) have enhanced export income and helped improve the n a t i o n a l GNP and l e v e l s of i n d u s t r i a l i z a t i o n . For example, three major o i l f i e l d s have been d i s c o v e r e d i n Mexico w i t h i n the past few y e a r s , and Venezuela's o i l - b a s e d economy i s w e l l known. With a few e x c e p t i o n s , the polyurethane markets i n L a t i n America a r e i n t h e i r e a r l y stages of development and o f f e r a s i g n i f i c a n t p o t e n t i a l demand over the next decade. The c u r r e n t p o l y urethane demand i s centered i n A r g e n t i n a , B r a z i l , Mexico, and Venezuela, r e p r e s e n t i n g 85% of the t o t a l demand of 448 m i l l i o n pounds expected i n 1980 as shown i n Table I I I . A r g e n t i n a continues to experience the severe i n f l a t i o n a r y problems that have c u r t a i l e d growth d u r i n g recent y e a r s . General Motors c l o s e d i t s auto assembly p l a n t and consumer p r i c e s continue to r i s e r a p i d l y . A steady improvement i s expected over the next decade as i n f l a t i o n appears t o be coming under c o n t r o l ; auto p r o d u c t i o n s t a b i l i z e s , and consumer demand strengthens i n f u r n i t u r e / b e d d i n g markets. B r a z i l i s to be the volume l e a d e r i n urethane demand, r e f l e c t i n g s t r o n g f l e x i b l e foam demand, p r i n c i p a l l y f o r automotive, f u r n i t u r e , and bedding uses. An expected modest decrease i n i n f l a t i o n r a t e and s t r o n g auto p r o d u c t i o n w i l l g i v e impetus t o t h i s growth through the e i g h t i e s .


14


TABLE I


WORLDWIDE POLYURETHANE DEMAND OUTLOOK (MMLBS)

U.S./Canada L a t i n America W. Europe Middle E a s t / A f r i c a / E. Europe Japan/Far East Total

1980

1985

1990

2350 448 2200 765

3541 645 2949 1064

4850 940 3946 1565

80/90 %/Yr. 7.5 7.7 6.0 7.4

889 6652

1236 9435

1750 13051

7.0 7.0

TABLE I I U.S./CANADA POLYURETHANE DEMAND (MMLBS)

F l e x i b l e Foam R i g i d Foam Elastomers Others Total

1980

1985

1990

1364 555 199 232 2350

1756 1022 329 434 3541

2000 1608 552 690 4850

80/90 %/Yr. 3.9 11.2 10.7 11.5 7.5

TABLE I I I LATIN AMERICAN POLYURETHANE DEMAND (MMLBS) 1980 F l e x i b l e Foam R i g i d Foam Elastomers Others Total

306 63 62 17 448

1985 427 111 78 29 645

1990 610 180 100 50 940

80/90 %/Yr. 7.2 11.1 4.9 11.4 7.7


1.

MANNO


15

Mexican urethane demand has been c o n s t r a i n e d by raw m a t e r i a l s c o s t s . F l e x i b l e foam markets w i l l show some s t r e n g t h i n the 8 0 s , r e f l e c t i n g a steady auto p r o d u c t i o n and moderate i n c r e a s e s f o r f u r n i t u r e and bedding uses. R i g i d foam a p p l i c a t i o n s a r e s t i l l i n the e a r l y stages of market development; b u t , commercial/indust r i a l i n s u l a t i o n uses are i n c r e a s i n g w e l l . Mexico leads L a t i n America i n urethane elastomer usage, paced by i t s demand f o r shoe s o l e a p p l i c a t i o n s . Venezuela i s emerging as a s t r o n g L a t i n American market f o r urethanes. A s t r o n g consumer demand and s i g n i f i c a n t exports t o Andean Pact c o u n t r i e s have provided much of the growth. C o n t i n ued i n c r e a s e s i n auto p r o d u c t i o n , f u r n i t u r e / b e d d i n g , and some i n s u l a t i o n markets should g i v e f u r t h e r impetus t o polyurethane demand.


1

L a t i n American Markets. F l e x i b l e polyurethane foam f o r premium as w e l l as inexpensive mattresses has been the major growth market i n most L a t i n American c o u n t r i e s , and o f t e n r e presented 50% of the f l e x i b l e demand. Growth prospects t o 1990 are good as consumers upgrade some of t h e i r p r e v i o u s purchases, and i n c r e a s e d market p e n e t r a t i o n i s r e a l i z e d i n some c o u n t r i e s (e.g. Mexico) t h a t have c o n s i d e r a b l e p o t e n t i a l . F u r n i t u r e demand f o r f l e x i b l e polyurethane foam i s r e l a t i v e l y modest compared t o bedding end uses. S t y l i n g trends and the p r o l i f e r a t i o n of s m a l l f u r n i t u r e producers have not opted f o r f l e x i b l e urethane foam c u s h i o n i n g . Upholstered f u r n i t u r e demand w i l l continue t o be c o n s t r a i n e d by low consumer income, as w e l l as s m a l l a r t i s a n production f a c i l i t i e s . B u i l d i n g and c o n s t r u c t i o n use of polyurethane markedly t r a i l s the volume and v a r i e t y of a p p l i c a t i o n s p r e v a l e n t i n North America. The use of r i g i d foam f o r i n s u l a t i n g commercial and r e s i d e n t i a l b u i l d i n g s i s i n i t s e a r l y stages of development. There a r e o n l y about a h a l f a dozen manufacturers of continuous polyurethane laminate panels i n L a t i n America. The u t i l i z a t i o n of r i g i d foam i n s u l a t i o n has experienced l i m i t e d success f o r r e f r i g e r a t i o n uses, both domestic and commercial. The o u t l o o k t o 1990 i s not p a r t i c u l a r l y encouraging. Considerable government i n c e n t i v e s w i l l be r e q u i r e d t o s t i m u l a t e the c o n s t r u c t i o n i n d u s t r y t o u t i l i z e r i g i d foam i n p u b l i c housing. I n d u s t r y awareness of energy c o s t s may p r o v i d e some i n c e n t i v e s f o r commercial usage of h i g h - e f f i c i e n c y polyurethane i n s u l a t i o n . I n a d d i t i o n , the t r a d i t i o n a l b u i l d i n g m a t e r i a l s (e.g. stone, b r i c k s , e t c . ) do not lend thems e l v e s t o replacement or simultaneous usage w i t h polyurethane foam i n s u l a t i o n . The t r a n s p o r t a t i o n i n d u s t r y has many of the worldwide auto producers represented i n seven L a t i n American c o u n t r i e s . B r a z i l i s the volume l e a d e r (over 1 m i l l i o n autos and t r u c k s i n 1979), f o l l o w e d by Mexico, A r g e n t i n a , and Venezuela. These auto p r o ducers a r e r a p i d l y adopting the concept of molded polyurethane foam s e a t i n g i n c l u d i n g the s u p e r i o r c u s h i o n i n g of h i g h r e s i l i e n c y foams. The pressure f o r i n c r e a s e d f u e l economy v i a weight r e Edwards et al.; Urethane Chemistry and Applications ACS Symposium Series; American Chemical Society: Washington, DC, 1981.


16


APPLICATIONS

d u c t i o n experienced by U.S. auto producers i s not present i n L a t i n American markets. Consequently, the RIM elastomer t e c h nology i s j u s t beginning to get a t t e n t i o n and some auto producers are c o n s i d e r i n g some a p p l i c a t i o n s . The balance of the polyurethane end uses comprises a myriad of a p p l i c a t i o n s , i n c l u d i n g domestic r e f r i g e r a t i o n , shoes, carpet underlay, f i b e r s , foundry core b i n d e r s , e t c . t h a t used p o l y urethane products. L a t i n American r e f r i g e r a t o r manufacturers are r a p i d l y c o n v e r t i n g from f i b e r - g l a s s to r i g i d polyurethane foam i n s u l a t i o n . As consumer demand f o r these a p p l i a n c e s i n c r e a s e s , the urethane demand should f o l l o w . Polyurethane elastomers f o r shoe s o l e have had a dramatic growth i n c e r t a i n L a t i n American c o u n t r i e s w i t h s i g n i f i c a n t exports to t h e i r n o r t h e r n neighbors. B a r r i n g any major s t y l i n g changes, Mexico could w e l l lead L a t i n America t o a s t r o n g worldwide polyurethane elastomer shoe s o l e market p o s i t i o n . Polyurethane adhesives or b i n d e r s are f i n d i n g acceptance by the L a t i n American foundry i n d u s t r y . Growth over the next few years should be s u b s t a n t i a l . Europe/Middle

East/Africa

The European r e g i o n c o n s i s t s of Western Europe, E a s t e r n Europe and the Middle E a s t / A f r i c a n a t i o n s . Western Europe i s d e f i n e d g e o g r a p h i c a l l y as: •Benelux -Belgium, Netherlands, Luxembourg •France •Italy •Nordic C o u n t r i e s -Norway, Sweden, F i n l a n d , Denmark, I c e l a n d •United Kingdom •West Germany •Other European - A u s t r i a , S w i t z e r l a n d , Spain, P o r t u g a l , Greece, Yugoslavia T h i s r e g i o n i n c l u d e s about 360 m i l l i o n i n h a b i t a n t s . Economic trade o r g a n i z a t i o n s (e.g. EEC, EFTA) l e n d some s t a b i l i t y ; but the wide spectrum of p o l i t i c a l and s o c i a l i d e a l o g y among the i n d i v i d u a l c o u n t r i e s causes p e r i o d i c problems. The OPEC crude o i l p r i c e i n c r e a s e s , i n t e r n a t i o n a l currency f l u c t u a t i o n s , and s t e a d i l y i n c r e a s i n g i n f l a t i o n r a t e s a f f e c t e d most of the c o u n t r i e s . The 1980 business r e c e s s i o n being experienced by the U.S. could w e l l portend s i m i l a r problems f o r these c o u n t r i e s w i t h i n the next few years.


1.

MANNO

17



The E a s t e r n European c o u n t r i e s i n c l u d e : USSR, East Germany, Poland, Hungary, B u l g a r i a , Rumania, C z e c h o s l o v a k i a , and A l b a n i a . These c o u n t r i e s c o n s i s t of about 400 m i l l i o n i n h a b i t a n t s . These s o c i a l i s t i c c o u n t r i e s have s t a t e - c o n t r o l l e d economies t h a t o n l y r e c e n t l y are beginning t o swing towards the manufacture of consumer items. The USSR i s probably the l a r g e s t volume consumer of polyurethane p r o d u c t s , f o l l o w e d c l o s e l y by East Germany. F i n a l l y , Hungary, Czechoslovakia and Poland form a second t i e r of consumers about h a l f of the l e v e l f o r the USSR and East Germany. The Middle East and A f r i c a r e g i o n c o n s i s t s o f : •Middle East - Turkey, S y r i a , Lebanon, Jordan, I s r a e l , Kuwait, I r a n , I r a q , Saudi A r a b i a , Egypt •Africa - a l l of c o n t i n e n t a l A f r i c a , except Egypt

Cyprus,

The r e g i o n c o n t a i n s about 640 m i l l i o n i n h a b i t a n t s . The M i d d l e East c o u n t r i e s a r e r i c h i n petroleum and o f f e r the prospect of being a p r i n c i p a l source of petrochemicals over the next decade. Many of the c o u n t r i e s i n the Middle East and A f r i c a are j u s t beg i n n i n g t o develop markets f o r polyurethanes. Egypt, South A f r i c a , and Turkey are the c u r r e n t l e a d e r s i n polyurethane usage. The Europe/Middle E a s t / A f r i c a polyurethane demand i s summar i z e d i n Tables IV and V. The o v e r a l l polyurethane demand f o r Western Europe i s expected t o reach about 2,200 m i l l i o n pounds i n 1980. West Germany alone w i l l account f o r 25% of the t o t a l , f o l lowed by I t a l y (20%) , France (13%) and the United Kingdom ( 9 % ) . Based on c u r r e n t growth e x p e c t a t i o n s , o v e r a l l demand should i n c r e a s e about 6.0% a n n u a l l y , and reach the 4,000 m i l l i o n pound l e v e l by 1990. The Middle E a s t , A f r i c a , and E a s t e r n European c o u n t r i e s w i l l represent a combined t o t a l demand of 765 m i l l i o n pounds i n 1980. D e s p i t e the w e l l known s o c i a l , p o l i t i c a l , and economic problems f o r many of these c o u n t r i e s . The Middle E a s t / A f r i c a / E . Europe could reach a 1,565 m i l l i o n pound polyurethane demand by 1990. Europe/Middle E a s t / A f r i c a Markets. F l e x i b l e foam end uses account f o r the b u l k of the polyurethane demand, p r i n c i p a l l y f o r t r a n s p o r t a t i o n , f u r n i t u r e and bedding a p p l i c a t i o n s . The e x c e l l e n t c u s h i o n i n g p r o p e r t i e s , l i g h t w e i g h t , and ease of i n s t a l l a t i o n of polyurethane f l e x i b l e foam i s w e l l recognized. A p r i n c i p l e user of f l e x i b l e foam i s the West European auto i n d u s t r y t h a t produced 15.5 m i l l i o n u n i t s (about 4.1 m i l l i o n from E. Europe) i n 1979. The average auto uses 10 kg. t o 15 kg. of f l e x i b l e foam and s e m i - f l e x i b l e foam, p r i m a r i l y f o r c u s h i o n i n g and s a f e t y padd i n g . Molded auto s e a t s a r e now w i d e l y used w i t h f u l l depth, HR (high r e s i l i e n c y ) f l e x i b l e urethane foam which i s s t e a d i l y r e p l a c i n g the t r a d i t i o n a l "bench" o r foam topper pad types of con-



18


APPLICATIONS

s t r u c t i o n . The HR foam uses ranges from a h i g h l e v e l of acceptance i n Scandinavia to moderate usage i n I t a l y and West Germany and f i n a l l y , to l i m i t e d a p p l i c a t i o n s i n France. F u r n i t u r e demand f o r f l e x i b l e polyurethane foam has been a slow developing market. S t y l i n g trends d i f f e r among the v a r i o u s c o u n t r i e s , and many of the low volume f u r n i t u r e manufacturers s t i l l use t r a d i t i o n a l c u s h i o n ing materials. The f u t u r e growth p r o s p e c t s w i l l be r e l a t e d to the new r e s i d e n t i a l c o n s t r u c t i o n and l e v e l of p e r s o n a l income a v a i l a b l e i n the various countries. Bedding use of f l e x i b l e polyurethane foam f o r premium as w e l l as inexpensive mattresses has been a major growth market and r e present c l o s e to 50% of the f l e x i b l e foam demand. The polyurethane foam mattresses are a v a i l a b l e i n a range of d e n s i t i e s and product q u a l i t i e s d e s p i t e moderate promotional e f f o r t s by mattress producers. Growth prospects f o r the next decade are good. Some consumers w i l l upgrade the q u a l i t y of t h e i r p r e v i o u s mattress purchases, and a s t r o n g demand w i l l continue f o r the l o w - p r i c e d u n i t s i n c e r t a i n a r e a s , e.g. the Middle East and A f r i c a . R i g i d polyurethane foam a p p l i c a t i o n s are centered i n b u i l d i n g and c o n s t r u c t i o n , r e f r i g e r a t e d t r a n s p o r t and domestic a p p l i a n c e s . The b u i l d i n g and c o n s t r u c t i o n markets i n c l u d e r e s i d e n t i a l and n o n - r e s i d e n t i a l c o n s t r u c t i o n , commercial r e f r i g e r a t i o n and indust r i a l i n s u l a t i o n , e.g. tanks and p i p e s . West Germany i s the European l e a d e r i n t h i s market. Thermal i n s u l a t i o n use of p o l y urethane foam f o r b u i l d i n g and c o n s t r u c t i o n a p p l i c a t i o n s are w e l l accepted. Both polyurethane and p o l y i s o c y a n u r a t e foams are used to p r o v i d e e x c e l l e n t thermal i n s u l a t i o n , combined w i t h low moisture vapor p e r m a b i l i t y , h i g h strength/weight r a t i o i n composites ( p a n e l s ) , dimensional s t a b i l i t y , and economy of p r o d u c t i o n by continuous processes. There are about 18 to 20 manufacturers of continuous PUR laminate panels i n t h i s r e g i o n . West Germany has approved a r e g u l a t i o n t h a t a l l r e s i d e n t i a l b u i l d i n g s c o n s t r u c t e d a f t e r June, 1979 must use DIN 4102 B-2 c l a s s foam i n s u l a t i o n f o r r o o f s and w a l l s . T h i s t r e n d toward more severe f i r e r a t i n g s i s l i k e l y to be f o l l o w e d i n the other European c o u n t r i e s . A p o l y isocyanurate foam i n s u l a t e d s t e e l deck r o o f i n g panel has passed French f i r e t e s t s and q u a l i f i e s f o r reduced f i r e insurance p r e miums. I n d u s t r i a l usage i n c l u d e s a v a r i e t y of tank, v e s s e l , and p i p i n g i n s u l a t i o n . The PIR foams are o f t e n p r e f e r r e d , because of t h e i r h i g h e r continuous s e r v i c e temperature (150 C). Cut and preshaped s l a b s t o c k i s used f o r many i n d u s t r i a l p l a n t p i p i n g a p p l i c a t i o n s . The foam s p r a y i n g of tanks and p i p e l i n e s i s g e t t i n g c o n s i d e r a b l e a t t e n t i o n i n the Middle East and A f r i c a n markets. There i s a l s o i n t e r e s t i n u s i n g polyurethane foam f o r the i n s u l a t i o n of LNG t a n k e r s . These s h i p s use h i g h - d e n s i t y r i g i d foam (up to 100 kg/m ) and r e q u i r e s i g n i f i c a n t q u a n t i t i e s per tanker. Countries w i t h w e l l e s t a b l i s h e d s h i p b u i l d i n g i n d u s t r i e s are v y i n g f o r t h i s market.



1.

MANNO

Worldwide

Polyurethane

Markets

19

Movement of p e r i s h a b l e food products by r e f r i g e r a t e d t r a n s p o r t from the Southern European a g r i c u l t u r a l n a t i o n s to the Northern European c o u n t r i e s has become a well-developed t r a n s p o r t b u s i n e s s . Low temperature i n s u l a t i o n of t r a n s p o r t a t i o n equipment such as r e f r i g e r a t e d t r u c k s u t i l i z e s the l i g h t w e i g h t and s u p e r i o r i n s u l a t i o n p r o p e r t i e s of r i g i d polyurethane foam. Metal-faced p o l y urethane foam panels as w e l l as cut s l a b s t o c k foam are used to i n s u l a t e the v e h i c l e s and c o n t a i n e r s . Appliance manufacturers use r i g i d polyurethane foam as i n s u l a t i o n f o r r e f r i g e r a t o r s and f r e e z e r s . The foam p r o v i d e s e x c e l l e n t i n s u l a t i o n , i s l i g h t w e i g h t , and i s easy to i n s t a l l . Refrigerator demand continues s t r o n g , matching the increased standard of l i v i n g i n many European c o u n t r i e s and r e f l e c t i n g s i g n i f i c a n t export markets. Consumer demand f o r both domestic and export markets should remain s t r o n g to 1990. The polyurethane elastomer demand w i l l r e c e i v e i t s impetus from automotive and footwear a p p l i c a t i o n s . Uses of polyurethane elastomers f o r autos i s centered i n a v a r i e t y of s o l i d and microc e l l u l a r a p p l i c a t i o n s , ranging from s m a l l e x t e r i o r t r i m s t r i p s to f u l l - s i z e d auto bumpers. The use of R e a c t i o n I n j e c t i o n Molding (RIM) p r o c e s s i n g i s g a i n i n g i n c r e a s i n g i n t e r e s t f o r the p r o d u c t i o n of l a r g e s u r f a c e area and t h i n c r o s s s e c t i o n p o l y u r e thane elastomer p a r t s . I n c o n t r a s t to t h e i r U.S. c o u n t e r p a r t s , the European auto makers do not have the same pressure t o reduce auto weight, improve f u e l economy, and meet low damage auto bumper standards. T h e i r i n t e r e s t i s p r i m a r i l y f o r export models to meet U.S. standards and u t i l i z a t i o n of the s t y l i n g f l e x i b i l i t y o f f e r e d by RIM polyurethane elastomers. Consequently, there i s a modest trend toward the use of RIM bumpers and f u t u r e c o n s i d e r a t i o n of r e i n f o r c e d RIM components (e.g. g l a s s - f i b e r r e i n f o r c e d RIM polyurethane elastomer auto f e n d e r ) . The footwear i n d u s t r y uses polyurethane as m i c r o c e l l u l a r elastomer f o r shoe s o l e s ; t h e r m o p l a s t i c elastomers f o r s k i boots, c o a t i n g s f o r shoe uppers, and adhesives. The m i c r o c e l l u l a r e l a s tomer shoe s o l e s have been used f o r over 10 years. The p o l y urethane shoe s o l e o f f e r s l i g h t w e i g h t and f l e x i b i l i t y i n s t y l i n g . F i n e d e t a i l s i m u l a t i n g wood, cork, l e a t h e r , and h a n d s t i t c h i n g can be r e a d i l y reproduced. New s t y l e s p o r t shoes have been developed to i n c o r p o r a t e m u l t i - c o l o r s and m u l t i - d e n s i t y s o l e s . As a r e s u l t , these shoe s o l e s are used i n women's h i g h - f a s h i o n shoes, work shoes, and a v a r i e t y of l e i s u r e and sport shoes. The c u r r e n t demand f o r polyurethane shoe s o l e s i s f o r continued steady growth and demand. There has been a continued s h i f t of the shoe s o l e market to the Middle East and E a s t e r n European areas. The use of polyurethane as a b i n d e r has found two i n t e r e s t i n g a p p l i c a t i o n s : foundry cores and woodchip p a r t i c l e b o a r d . The foundry i n d u s t r y has recognized the v a l u e of polyurethane adhesive b i n d e r s to b i n d sand foundry cores f o r metal c a s t i n g . T h i s a p p l i c a t i o n i s i n c r e a s i n g s t e a d i l y . The use of isocyanate b i n d e r s f o r woodchip p a r t i c l e b o a r d i s r e c e i v i n g s i g n i f i c a n t a t t e n t i o n . The


20


coated woodchip can be pressed i n t o a p a r t i c l e b o a r d or formed as a bonded woodchip core between t h i n wood veneers. The i s o c y a n a t e c o n t a i n i n g products o f f e r s u p e r i o r weathering and m o i s t u r e - r e s i s tant p r o p e r t i e s . Developmental program underway, could p r o v i d e some s i z a b l e markets w i t h i n the next few years.


Japan/Far East The Japan/Far East r e g i o n i s g e o g r a p h i c a l l y d e f i n e d t o i n c l u d e Japan, A u s t r a l i a , New Zealand, Korea, Taiwan, P h i l i p p i n e s , I n d i a , Peoples Republic of China, and the r e s t of Southeast A s i a . T h i s r e g i o n i n c l u d e s about 2,400 m i l l i o n i n h a b i t a n t s . The c o u n t r i e s represent a wide range of p o l i t i c a l b e l i e f s and economic l e v e l s of development. Japan, w i t h i t s h i g h l y i n d u s t r i a l i z e d economy and i n t e r n a t i o n a l export program, i s the p r i n c i p l e economic f o r c e i n the r e g i o n . Korea and Taiwan are r a p i d l y growing economies t h a t are competing w i t h Japan f o r export markets. Most of the Southeast A s i a n c o u n t r i e s a r e i n e a r l y or a g r a r i a n stages of economic development . Japan i s the p r i n c i p l e s u p p l i e r of both polyurethane and raw m a t e r i a l products throughout the r e g i o n . They represent over 60% of the 1980 polyurethane demand of 990 m i l l i o n pounds l i s t e d i n Table V I . Korea and Taiwan are developing s i g n i f i c a n t polyurethane demand, much of i t d e s t i n e d f o r export markets. A u s t r a l i a and New Zealand a r e s t e a d i l y developing t h e i r domestic polyurethane markets. F i n a l l y , the other c o u n t r i e s (with a few exceptions) are i n the p r e l i m i n a r y stages of u s i n g polyurethane products. Japan/Far East Markets. The f l e x i b l e foam demand i s centered p r i m a r i l y i n t r a n s p o r t a t i o n , f u r n i t u r e , and bedding markets. The t r a n s p o r t a t i o n i n d u s t r y w i l l use polyurethane f l e x i b l e foam mostly f o r automotive s e a t i n g and s a f e t y padding. F u l l - d e p t h molded foam s e a t i n g i s r e p l a c i n g the t r a d i t i o n a l "bench" o r foam topper pad type of c o n s t r u c t i o n . The t r a n s p o r t a t i o n i n d u s t r y i s a key f a c t o r i n the Japanese economy, w i t h 1979 p r o d u c t i o n exceeding 10 m i l l i o n v e h i c l e s and over h a l f being exported t o the U.S. While the demand f o r both f l e x i b l e and s e m i - f l e x i b l e foam w i l l remain s t r o n g over the next decade, the worldwide business slowdown, p l u s i n c r e a s e d U.S. p r o d u c t i o n of s m a l l - s i z e d autos, may w e l l reduce demand over the near term. The f u r n i t u r e and bedding i n d u s t r y use of polyurethane f l e x i b l e foam f o r m a t t r e s s e s , pads, and c u s h i o n i n g i s a f a i r l y s t a b l e market. F u r n i t u r e manufactured w i t h polyurethane f l e x i b l e foam o f f e r s e x c e l l e n t cushioning p r o p e r t i e s and reduced assembly l a b o r . Polyurethane foam mattresses are an i d e a l use f o r f l e x i b l e foam. The l i g h t w e i g h t and comfort of these foam u n i t s has r e c e i v e d ready acceptance by consumers. The polyurethane r i g i d foam usage w i l l t o t a l about 223 m i l l i o n pounds i n 1980 and i s expected t o i n c r e a s e to about 551 m i l l i o n pounds i n 1990. B u i l d i n g and c o n s t r u c t i o n and domestic a p p l i a n c e a p p l i c a t i o n s account f o r the b u l k of the usage. C o n s t r u c t i o n Edwards et al.; Urethane Chemistry and Applications ACS Symposium Series; American Chemical Society: Washington, DC, 1981.

MANNO


21

TABLE IV


WESTERN EUROPE POLYURETHANE DEMAND (MMLBS)


1980

1985

1990

1393 495 157 155 2200

1682 810 237 220 2949

2175 1136 345 290 3946

80/90 %/Yr. 4.6 8.7 8.2 6.5 6.0

TABLE V MIDDLE EAST/AFRICA/Ε. EUROPE POLYURETHANE DEMAND (MMLBS)


1980

1985

1990

422 190 141 12 765

599 273 178 14 1064

775 480 288 22 1565

80/90 %/Yr. 6.2 9.7 7.4 6.2 7.4

TABLE VI JAPAN/FAR EAST POLYURETHANE DEMAND (MMLBS)


1980

1985

1990

493 223 63 110 889

631 348 112 145 1236

800 551 206 193 1750


80/90 %/Yr. 5.0 9.5 12.6 5.8 7.0

22


APPLICATIONS

a p p l i c a t i o n s i n c l u d e i n s u l a t i o n f o r r o o f , w a l l , and i n d u s t r i a l uses, e.g. tanks and p i p e s . The development of the A u s t r a l i a n Northwest S h e l f o i l and gas f i e l d s w i l l p r o v i d e a s u b s t a n t i a l market demand f o r polyurethane foam i n s u l a t i o n t h a t c o u l d approach multi-thousand ton l e v e l s . The Japanese b u i l d i n g and c o n s t r u c t i o n uses of polyurethane products have been r a t h e r l i m i t e d . The i n s u l a t i o n v a l u e of r i g i d polyurethane foam has found some acceptance f o r commercial and i n d u s t r i a l use. However, the p o t e n t i a l l y large-volume r e s i d e n t i a l market remains e l u s i v e , d e s p i t e the Japanese government s o f f e r to p r o v i d e l o w - i n t e r e s t loans f o r energy-saving i n s u l a t i o n . Some progress has occurred i n the manufacture of polyurethane continuous laminate p a n e l s , and f o u r producers are now i n v o l v e d i n p r o v i d i n g panels f o r c o l d storage and a g r i c u l t u r a l b u i l d i n g s . The use of polyurethane elastomers f o r automotive bumpers and body p a r t s i s a r a p i d l y growing t r a n s p o r t a t i o n market. Japanese auto manufacturers have been u s i n g RIM p r o c e s s i n g t o produce l a r g e s u r f a c e area and t h i n c r o s s - s e c t i o n elastomer p a r t s . Toyota introduced a RIM bumper i n 1977 and i s c u r r e n t l y u s i n g RIM bumpers on 8 auto models. Some RIM bumpers i n c o r p o r a t e an energyabsorbing m i c r o c e l l u l a r foam i n s e r t t o meet the U.S. auto bumper standards. M i t s u b i s h i Motors has RIM bumpers on two models ( G a l l a n t Sigma and L a n c e r ) . Nisson Motors i s a l s o u s i n g RIM bumper s on the Datsun 280ZX. The A u s t r a l i a n auto i n d u s t r y shares the concern of i t s U.S. counterparts to reduce auto weight and improve f u e l economy. A good example i s the Ford F a l c o n XD t h a t i s 116 kg. l i g h t e r than the p r e v i o u s e q u i v a l e n t model. P a r t of the weight r e d u c t i o n comes from the use of impact energy-absorbing f r o n t and r e a r bumpers made from RIM molded polyurethane elastomers. The RIM bumpers use about 12 kg. of polyurethane and are attached t o a support beam of h i g h - s t r e n g t h g l a s s - r e i n f o r c e d p o l y e s t e r . I f other auto producers begin developing s i m i l a r d e s i g n , the A u s t r a l i a n RIM usage could reach s i g n i f i c a n t l e v e l s w i t h i n the next few y e a r s . Of the many other end uses f o r polyurethane p r o d u c t s , shoe s o l e s and s y n t h e t i c l e a t h e r should be mentioned. The polyurethane shoe s o l e usage reached a peak demand i n 1973 before s t y l i n g trends and c o m p e t i t i o n from other s y n t h e t i c m a t e r i a l s r e s u l t e d i n market e r o s i o n . The expected demand w i l l be centered i n women's f a s h i o n , s p o r t s , and r e c r e a t i o n a l shoes f o r both domestic and export markets. The polyurethane l e a t h e r demand p r o v i d e s both a domestic and export market. There are 6 Japanese producers of poromeric l e a t h e r who w i l l supply about 15 m i l l i o n square meters of l e a t h e r i n 1980 f o r shoes (about 50%) , c l o t h i n g , and a v a r i e t y of other products (luggage, cases, g l o v e s , b e l t s , e t c . ) . There i s some s y n t h e t i c l e a t h e r p r o d u c t i o n i n Korea and Taiwan. An i n t e r e s t i n g use of polyurethane elastomers i s an a p p l i c a t i o n being evaluated by the Japanese r a i l r o a d . The elastomer i s a p p l i e d to the s i d e and bottom s u r f a c e s of a concrete r a i l r o a d t i e and serves as a sound absorbing medium f o r s e c t i o n s of the


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t r a c k going through r e s i d e n t i a l areas or over concrete b r i d g e s . Over 60,000 t i e s w i l l be coated w i t h elastomer (25 mm t h i c k n e s s ) i n 1980, and r e p r e s e n t s over 4 m i l l i o n pounds of elastomer. The Peoples Republic of China (PRC) i s embarked on an ambi t i o u s program of economic and i n d u s t r i a l growth, d i r e c t e d to over come many years of p o l i t i c a l and s o c i a l upheavals. The PRC has had t o s c a l e down i t s o r i g i n a l p l a n s and i s f o c u s i n g on a slower, more balance and s e l e c t i v e development program. The i n i t i a l emphasis w i l l be on a g r i c u l t u r e and l i g h t i n d u s t r i e s , t o supply consumer needs and encourage e x p o r t s . The polyurethane s e c t o r has not been n e g l e c t e d . A 22 m i l l i o n pound isocyanate p l a n t i s sche duled f o r completion i n l a t e 1981, w i t h a c a p a c i t y of producing crude and pure methylene d i p h e n y l d i i s o c y a n a t e (MDI). While some of t h i s p r o d u c t i o n w i l l be used d o m e s t i c a l l y , the b u l k i s d e s t i n e d f o r export markets i n Southeast A s i a . The PRC markets f o r polyurethanes are centered i n a range of a p p l i c a t i o n s from c o n v e n t i o n a l f l e x i b l e c u s h i o n i n g and r i g i d foam i n s u l a t i o n to more s o p h i s t i c a t e d uses, such as shoe s o l e s , synthe t i c l e a t h e r and gymnasium p l a y i n g s u r f a c e s . While s t a t i s t i c s are not r e a d i l y a v a i l a b l e , the PRC consumes about 10 m i l l i o n pounds of r i g i d foam and 8 m i l l i o n pounds ψ f l e x i b l e foam a n n u a l l y . Recent p l a n s to b u i l d a 3 m i l l i o n m per year poromeric p o l y u r e thane s y n t h e t i c l e a t h e r p l a n t should g i v e impetus to polyurethane demand i n 1982/83. RECEIVED June 1,1981.


Worldwide Polyurethane Markets - ACS Symposium Series (ACS

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