Economic Developments. - ACS Publications

8. Prior to the Interstate Commerce Commission's rate equaliza- tion order, manufacturers in theeastern or official territory had an advantage over ma...
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INDUSTRIAL AND ENGINEERING CHEMISTRY

Prior to the Interstate Commerce Commission’s rate equalization order, manufacturers in the eastern or official territory had an advantage over manufacturers in the Southwest, in those cases where the ratings were the same in both territories. On shipments of commodities from the Southwest to the eastern territory, the southwestern manufacturers enjoyed an advantage only when the southwestern classifications provided a substantially lower rating. But since the eastern manufacturers could ship into the Southwest under this regional classification rating, his advantages were retained regardless of differences in classification ratings. And, of course, the eastern manufacturer had a pronounced advantage over his southwestern competitor, regardless of the location of the common market, whenever the official classification provided lower ratings. It is difficult to say what effect the rate equalization order will have upon the industrialization of the Southvest. Many observers believe that freight rate differences have been overplayed as a factor in plant location. They point out that it is essentially a matter of volume upon which the railroads may justify special rates. The efforts of the Interstate Commerce Commission to equalize rates and to establish a uniform classification will do much to

Vol. 43, No. 8

correct inequities and to provide a sounder basis for the establishment of plants in the region.

CONCLUSION I n any given area, industrialization depends upon many things. In the Southwest the cheniicals industry is primarily concerned with raw materials, not markets. Future expansion is likely to occur on the same basis. However, the manufacturing plants which are drawn t o the source of chemical compounds and intermediates will represent an industrial market for chemicals in the region. These processors of consumer items will in turn be concerned with local markets, and also with national distribution.

LITERATURE CITED (1) Adams, Kalter, “The Structure of American Industry,” p. 208, New York, MacMillan Co., 1950, ( 2 ) Interstate Commerce Commission, Bur. Transport Economics and Statistics, Statement No. Q-SSO(SCS) (1949). (3) Univ. of Arkansas, Bur. Business and Economic Research, special

questionnaire survey of chemical plants in the Southwest (1950).

RECEIVED April 16, 1951.

Economic Developments MORGAN H.RICE FEDERAL RESERVE BANK O F DALLAS, DALLAS, TEX

I

T h e principal factors t h a t promoted the expansion of T I S possible that the exin cotton production in thcse industries and other economic activities in the Southwest ceedingly fast pace set by and some other areas have during the past decade were World War 11, the nationwide the chemical industry of the been more than offset by inpostwar boom, the growing importance of oil and gas in Southwest during the past creases in the high plains of the nation’s economy, progress in the petrochemical field, decade may have obscured west Texas and in the lower decentralization policies of large corporations, advances in Rio Grande Valley. Rice the somewhat phenomenal farm techniques and practices, government practices, and production i n A r k a n s a s , growth that has occurred the self-generating characteristics of growth. There generally in the Southwest’s Louisiana, and the adjoining are indications t h a t some of these factors will continue economy. This growth has Texas Gulf Coast area has to exert a stimulating influence during the next several been wide in scope; it has increased substantially, and encompassed most industries years. production of grain sorghums, reflecting their expanding use of the area, as well as nearly every other segment of ecofor commercial purposes as nomic activity. Perhaps the extent of the growth in the Southwest ne11 as feed, is now several times greater than the average production of the 1930’s. Wheat production in the Texas Panhandle can best be measured by the expansion of income payments to individuals, TThich increased by more than 250% during the decade. and western Oklahoma reached exceptionally high levels during Although a significant part of this increase s a s due to a rise the past 10 years, in contrast with generally depressed production in the 1930’s when drought as a significant factor in in prices, income payments, shown in Table I, were more holding down output. than doubled even after eliminating the effects of price increases. The expansion in the Southwest’s economy has been sparked The Southwest’s crude oil production during the past 10 years showed an even more marked growth than during the previous by the growth in its basic industries-agriculture, petroleum, decade, when the discovery of the fabulous east Texas field and and manufacturing. Although agriculture, in keeping with the national trend, has been tending to become relatively less important as a source of income to the area, the share of total income supplied by agriculture is still approximately twice as Table I. Index of Income Payments t o Individuals great in the Southwest as in the nation. The fact that agricul(Arkansas, Louisiana, Oklahoma, Texas, and United States) ture does provide approximately one sixth of the area’s income Southwestern Year States United States emphasizes its importance to the economy of the area. 100 1940 100 The physical volume of agricultural output sho.rved a fairly 122 123 1941 steady increase throughout the decade. Crop yields have im155 170 1942 187 221 1943 proved, and cattle numbers are significantly higher than 10 202 1944 243 244 207 1945 years earlier (Table 11). The most impressive gains in crop 225 1946 257 production have occurred in the lower Rio Grande Valley and 244 1947 287 267 1948 314 in the high plains of west Texas, yet significant increases have 260 325 1949 357a 282 been apparent in many other sections. Farmers in Louisiana, 1950 Source: Based on United States Department of Commerce data (1940=100) Arkansas, Oklahoma, and east Texas have shown a rather marked a Estimated. shift from cotton farming to a more diversified operation giving greater emphasis to cattle raising. On the other hand, decreases

INDUSTRIAL AND ENGINEERING CHEMISTRY

August 1951

the development of the south L o u i a i a fielda stimulated intensive drillmgprograms and sharply increased crude oil production. In 1950 oil production in the four states of Arkansas, Louisiana, Oklahoma, and Texas totaled 1.234 billion barrels, representing 57% of the nation's total production. Moreover, this total is 58% greater than in 1940, although it is down slightly from the record 1948 level. The bulk of the increase in production during

Table 11. Cash Receipt. h r n Farm M a r b t i m ~ l 9 4 & W h i p @ , Thowan&

Ye.r 1940 1941 1942 1048 1944 1945 1946 1947 1848 1949 1950

80-:

Cmm 616 885 751'972 940'074 i,114:324 1 278 167 1'217'911 1:424:873 2 019 034 2'048'103 2'208'588 1:982:281

of Dollus

Livestock 413,414 548 808 785'727 1.022:010 960.7411 1 085 561 1 ' 161 '146 1'387'408 1'503.918 1:324:512 1,356,061

TOM

930 249 1 8Oo1780 1'732'401 2'136.334 2'238'902 2'303'472 2'588'019 3:416:442 3 550 022 3.533'080 3:838:328

United fltsta Department of Agriculture.

the decsde occurred in the Permian Bssin of west Texas, in south Texss, and in southern Louisiana. West Texan has received a greater oil play than any other l u e ~in the country; as many as one third of all the drilling rigs in operation in recent years are looated in that area. Moreover, west Texan containa the tre mendous Canyon Reef fields in Snrrry County, which rank aecond among the numerous large fields that have been discovered in this country. Despite the increases in oil production, new I+ serves added through the discovery of new fielda and extensions of existing fields have greatly exceeded withdrawals, resulting in a net increase of 70% in southwestern crude oil r e a e m since the beginning of 1940 (Figure 1). One of the moat o u t s h d i n g aspects of southwestern development during the paat decade was the growth in manufacturing. The rate of growth was grenter than in any other decade of this century and was much more rapid than in the nation. Moreover, there was a noticeable broadening in the scope of manufacturing activity. During World War I1 there were established synthetic rubber plants, chemicsl plants, ordnance, metal, machinery, and aircraft plants, and shipyards; also, there was a marked expamion in refineries. The major portion of these new plants was located in the Gulf Coast area, althou& a numbex of war nlanta were located inland. m c h a s aircraft plants the Fort Worth-Dallas 2,200 and Tulsa w,carbon blackplants in west Texas, and synthetic rubber and various miscellaneous 2,000 ordnance plants in scattered localities of the m a . Although some of these war-born plants were closed after the war, most of them either were converted 1,600 to the production of civilian goods or were used for other purposes. Moreover, the establishment of new manufacturing facilities and the mcdernkation of existing facilities continued a t a rapid rate in the postwar perid. Thin expansion includea numerous d l plants scattered throughout the m a , an well a a mnaidemble number of medium and large sise plants. Some idea of the magnitude of the growth in manufacturing in the Swthwest 400 may be obtained from the inorease in manufacturing employment, which row from 419,000 in April 1940 to around 765,000 in April 1951, an increase of about 83% (Table 111). Them increases in mannfacturing employment and activity are impressive; yet we should remember that the proportion of the area's income derived from manufacturing is less than half the propor-

tion derived from that source in us that the nation. manufacturing Thia fact reminds in the

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Resauces

Southwest, in many respects, is still in its infancy, which, in t U N , SUggeStS vigor and BUStained growth. Although agriculture, petroleum, and manufacturing were the basis for the tremendous growth in the Southwest's economy in the past decade, this growth has brought in its wake notable expansion in the COnStNCtion, trade, and services induatries. Tbe postwar construction boom which has heen evident throughout the nation has been even more accentuated in the Southwest (Table IV). The total value of building last year was almost four and one half times as large as in 1940, and even allowing for the increase in building costa, the volume of COnStNCtiOII was probably double that of 10 years earlier. The value of reeidential building in 1950 reached a peak of about Even times the 1940 t ~ t a l . Trade and servimindustries paralleled the growth in other segments of the economy. As an indication of the outstanding gains in retail trade, d e p a r t ment store sales in the Eleventh Federal Reserve District, which comprises a large part of the Southwest, increased 259% between 1940 and 1950. Thia increase is larsr than that in any other district and exceeds by a wide margin the average gain in the nation. A collateral development of major significance has been the shifts in population within the area, wbich have accelerated the concentration of population in a few urban centers. Table V shows that although the combined population of the four states had a net i n c r e of ~ 11% between 1940 and 1950, a total of 297 counties and parishes actually had a net loss in population. Of the 173 counties and parishes having population increases, 89 had gains of less than 20% and only 30 had gains of as much as 50%. These shifts were induced largely by the industrial expansion that attracted surplus labor from rural areas. The rapid growth of the Southwest, which has attracted widespread attention both regionally and nationally, has generated genuine interest in the potentiality of the area. Some of the Ecurring questions being asked m: Why has the Southwest shown auch exceptional growth? what is the basis for this industrial expansion? How permanent is it? What are the potentialities for future growth? Undoubtedly, the rich natural

22.000 20,000

*/' 0 '

RESERVES-,-

16.000

I

4.000

.

-0

INDUSTRIAL AND ENG INEERING CHEMISTRY

174%

Table 111. Manufacturing Employment-April April 1951

1940 and

(Arkansas, Louisiana, Oklahoma, a n d Texas)

Industry group Durable goods Cement, glass, clay, a n d stone Wood products Metal products Transportation equipment Other durable goods Total

products

Number Employed .4pril 1940 April 1951 14,647 108,423 44,135 9,398

6,107 182, 710

80,587 31,917 56 210 18:757 13,491 12,085 16,689 6,739 236,475

Increase April 1940 to ~ ~1951, ~

%

32,000 122,000 103,000 68,000 14,000 339,000

118 13 133 623

126,000 40,000 81,000

56 25 44 247 115 90 152

66,000

29,000 23,000 42,000 20,000 426,000

130 85

Apparel Other nondurable goods 197 80 Total Total manufacturing 419,185 765,000 82 Source: 1940 data from United States Bureau of the Census: 1951 data estimated, based on releases from the United States Department of Labor a n d state employment agencies.

resources of the area have been essential elements in this gron-th. The possession of the major portion of the oil and gas reserves of the nation has been a factor. The fronting of two of the states on the Gulf of Mexico, which gives access to the intercoastal canal and to ocean transportation, has been an important element. The mild climate has permitted the diversification of agriculture and has encouraged the location of some industries. Rich and level agricultural land, with a large percentage of farms of aboveaverage size, has been favorable to the mechanized trend in agriculture. The adequate supply of intelligent labor capable of being trained has tended t o foster economic growth, although this factor has been partly offset by a scarcity of skilled labor in many lines Without these resources, the Southwest would have shown very little expansion during the past 10 years. On the other hand, resources alone are never the motivating forces in economic groii th. The oil and natural gas have been in the ground for centuries; the location and climate are relatively permanent; the agricultural land has not changed significantly; and the supply of labor probably is not much different than in some other periods. Consequently, we must look elwewhere for the causes or stimuli which fostered the more intensive utilization of the Southwest’s resources during the past decade. The fundamental causes may be grouped under eight general categories :

1. World War I1 2. The nationwide postm-ar boom 3. The growing importance of oil and gas in thc nation’s economy 4. Revolutionary progress in the petrochenGca1 field 5. Decentralization policies of large corporations 6. Advances in farm techniques and practices 7. Government policies, programs, and actions 8. Self-generating characteristics of rapid grov t h Perhaps a careful examination of these primary factors will give a better understanding of the phenomenal growth of the Southwest and provide the basis for estimating the probable developments in the next few years. The Southwest has been, and to a considerable extent still is, essentially a mpplier of raw materials and power for other sections of the country. I t s industries have been dependent to a marked degree on national and, in some instances, international demand. This dependence has been greater than in many other sections of the country where tbe economy is more diversified and more selfcontained. Consequently, it was natural that the tremendous

i

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increase in the activity of industries in other sections of the country, occasioned by World War I1 and the postwar boom, should also greatly increase the demand for the Southwest’s prcducts. To be more specific, World War I1 and the subsequent postwar boom greatly increased the demands for such important raw l products of the Southwest as cotton, wheat, rice, wool, cattle, fresh vegetables, timber, citrus fruits, and minerals, including petroleum, sulfur, aluminum, lead, and zinc. World War I1 did more than boom the demand for the Southwest’s raw materials; it also furnished the impetus for many of the important manufacturing developments in the past decadr First, it induced a substantial expansion in plant facilities (Tablr VI) and in the production of most existing industries which had been important in the prewar period. This was particularly true with respect to industries that processed southwestern ran materials, such as the food products, building materials, and nonferrous metals industries and the relatively young petrochemical industry. -4t the same time, numerous small plants in a wide range of industries, which functioned as suppliers of parts and semimanufactured products to the larger industrial units, expanded sharply during the war, and in the post\+ar period became important industrial units. Secondly, the war led to the establishment of several entirely new industries, including airc1 aft, shipbuilding, rubber and rubber productq ordnance explosives, and metals. Activity in most of these industries diminished after the war, but the plants remain as a basic part of the industrial machine. This war-promoted indu iwlization provided the area’s labor 1% ith opportunities for obtaining increased knowledge and skills in many lines through on-the-job training and industry training schools which were established It should be pointed out that this nucleus of skilled labor, developed during the mar. hay a$sisted in further expansion of the area’s manufacturing in postwar years. Moreover, the war caused a large expansion in military establishments, including air and naval bases, and man\ of these installations which continued to operate in the postn-ar period have added to the area’s income. Many of thesc aaitinie developments which have been such important contributioiis to the economy of the area might have occurred in time, even if

Table IV.

Index of Value of Construction Contracts Awarded- 1940SO

(Arkansas, Louisiana, Oklahoma, Texas, a n d United States) %ut hwestern Year Gtates United States 100 1940 100 1941 1942 1943 1944 1945 1946 1947 1948 1949 1950

150 206 82 60 82 187 194 236 258 362

181 328 139 71

106 193 243 283 287 433

Source: Based on F. W. Dodge Coiporntion data (1940

Table V.

Changes in Population of Counties in Southwestern States-1940-50

Percentage Change in Population Decrease Increase

0.0- 9 . 9 1010-19.9 20.0-29.9 30.0-39.9 40.0-49.9 50.0 and over

Total

= 100)

-~ Y o Counties

Arkan-

Loiiisi-

aas

ana

Oklahoma

56

30

19

34 14 12 4 0 0

11

5

3 0 0 0 75

L

64 4

Total Four

Texan

States

66

145

11 3 1 2 2 3 0 77

109 25 18 19 10

297 173 53 36 28

-

Source: United States Bureau of t h e Census.

11

26 254

12 14

-

30 470

I N D U S T R I A L A N D E N G I N E E R I N G CHEMISTRY

August 1951

Table VI. Manukcturkrg Facilitim Eqwuion-July I W u n e 1945

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materials. Other factora include the abundant supplies of salt, alkali, and sulfur; a climate that permits the wnstruction of open buildings typi-m % cal of modem chemical plante; e acceae to cheap interwastsl canal and ocean transportation; a satisfactory labor supply, including trained technicians; and rapidly growing marketa. The petrochemical induntry is only one illustration of the marked tendency of large wrporntions to decentralize their expanding operations. In the Bouthwest the trend has been noticeable in virtually every important industrial operation and in several seMce and distributive e n t e r p h . During the war mme wrporations were encouraged or required by the Government to decentrslise defense production for national security PUIPOS~S, but most companiw have followed a decentralization policy for purely economic reanons. It should be pointed out that while national decentralization is taking place, a marked trend toward centralisation is occurring within the area. Most of the industrial expaneion has been along the Gulf C-t and in proximity to the larger cities in the interior. Although a hr@ number of the smaller plants a n scattered among the emall- and medium& towns or cities thoughout the area, these plsnts turn out a relatively small percentage of the total production; each plant, however, may be significant in the life of its community.

WJTHWE

.. $159.8

.. 89.8

$43.9 $ 8 8 . 8

23.0 100.6

ii.4

0.7

0.8

S0.l

1.0

1m.o s

$

60.6

228.7

.

258.7 93.5 560.2

79.4

81.0

118.0

288.1

0.1

1.6

0.5

14.5

18.7

11.5

281.0 5.4 9.6

55.9 1.5 6.a

770.4 ia.6 30.1

1 ,098.8

8.6

6.1

24.1 sa. 1

there had been no war, but the war greatly speeded their accomplishment. The twentkth century may be characterized 89 an oil and gas era. certainly, one of the moat out8tanding aspects of the psst few decsdea wa8 the growing importance of oil and gas an a 8011lc8 of energy. During the past 10 years the proportion of the nation's total energy repuirements supplied by oil and gas indfrom +a% to more than 50%. The increased mechanimtion of agriculkm, the p w h g importance of the automobile in buaiDeas and personal transportation, the h r p riae in truck tmnsprtation, the s b r t l i i rapidity of the wnvemion of raild s fmm steam to Diesel locomotives, the tremendous expanBion in both military and civilian aircraft, the mecbaniaation of military a m e n t , and the remlutionary extension in the use of natural gaa an a domeatic and industrial fuel reflect the increasing importance of oil and gas in this nation's economy. As the Southweat posseaeas a major portion of the proved r e s e m of oil (FigureZ ) , it is obvious that thew develop and gas in the -try menta have a tremendous impact on the economy of the area. Tboae who are engaged directly or indirectly in the chemical field are fully aware of the astounding progmea which the petrochemical induaby has made during the pant decade. This growth stemmed primarily from the intemive research programs which produced discoveries of numerous new chemicals and entar& the uses for previo~~ly known chemicals derived from natural gas and petroleum. Moreover,the chemid industry is msking rapid pmgress in developing new techniques for the emnomical production of such chemicala. Fortunately, thew -e techniques are useful in the manufacture of the major petmlproduota, especially in improving yields and quality and in makmg refinery operations more flexible. In this connection. it is important to remember that a major share of this expa&x has occurred in the Southwest and that it has been a aigniificant factor contributing to the recent industrial growth of the area. When one m m v m todsy's vast network of chemical plsnta in the Bouthwest, it is dil%ult to real& that only 15 yeara age, virtually all synthetic chemicals were produced east of the MiaBissippi Riw. It is dm imporimt to remember that the advantage8offeredby the Southweat are primarily regponeible for the rapid expamion of the petrochemid industry in the area and are likely to provide the b d for continned expamion. One of these major advantsges in the laqp reaerveu of natural gas and petroleum, which d t u t a the baaic raw matariab and provide an abundance of cheap fuel. A wllateral factor is the h w petroleum re5ing industry; petroleum gpses have beoome essential chemical raw

-7

, I951 Figun 2. Puuntaga Distribution of United S t a h Crude Oil Rememes sounr; amorkml%*Ol.Unn IIutitut.

In most instances, the area centralisation is highly denirable from an economic standpoint because of the intarmlationshipa prnonsx - q d & u m j o rindustries, the need for PCCeBB to pools of labor available in the larger a m , the advantages inherent in specific localities, and other benefits that derive fmm proximity to other industrial enterprises. Advancea in farm techniques and practices and succeaa in bringing generally unproductive land into cultivation though irrigation have oontributed d d e n a b l y to the rise in a g r i d turd income in the area and, hence, in totd income of the area. Farm yiekb have bean incleased though impmvemente in mil fertility and use of better eeed, acienti6c mop robtion, and more &rsl application9 of fertilker. Moreover,the rapid extennw ' n of mecbnhtion in agriculture has lowered agricultural production costs,permitted more timely dtivution of crops,and, at the sume time, freed nignihnt ammta of farm labor for productive dort in other indusbiee. Imgation farming has been in&

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INDUSTRIAL AND ENGINEERING CHEMISTRY

rapidly in the lower Rio Grande T’alley, in portions of west Texas, and in scattered localities elsewhere; although comprising only a small part of the total agricultural area, it has become an important factor in over-all agricultural production in the Southwest. The expansion in the economy of the Southm-est has been largely the result of these basic economic factors, but government policies, programs, and actions also have had an influence. I n view of the importance of agriculture to the Southwest, the favored position of agricultural products under wartime price controls probably resulted in a greater benefit to this area than to other areas of the country in which agriculture is relatively less important. Moreover, the high level of demand for agricultural products, due in part to foreign aid programs, as well as the high prices of agricultural products resulting from the support programs of the Government in the postwar period, also have tended to increase agricultural income in the Southwest. It is doubtful vihether construction activit,y in this area or in the nation ~ o u l d have attained its record heights of recent years without the assistance provided by the government‘s mortgage insurancr and mortgage purchasing programs on residential construction.

h final factor that is frequently overlooked in explaining the growth of an area is the self-generating characteristic of rapid growth. The tremendous expansion in the Southwest has created favorable psychological conditions stimulating investment in the area. The success that some enterprises have had gives other enterprises confidence in risking capital in the area. Then too, as the economy has expanded, income and savings have grown and local capital has increased for investment in new enterprises in the area. The banks and insurance conipanies in the Southwest are in a much better position today to meet the expanding capital requirements of the area than they were 10 years ago. As manufacturing has grown, the number of skilled workers has increased and facilities have been expanded for the training of additional workers. Companies have been springing up to meet some of the needs of the expanding industries of the areafor instance, pipe production facilities, machine shops, and cement plants have been established to meet the local needs of the oil industry. Perhaps more important has been the establishment of plants throughout the area to meet the expanding needs of the growing population. Trade and service outlets and enlarged public facilities, including schools, hospitals, roads, and water systems, have become necessary with the rapid growth of population in some areas. Many of these developments have been aided by the vast network of highways constructed in the past 25 years and the marked extension in the use of automobile, bus, and truck transportation. I n the final analysis, it probably would not be an exaggeration to state that this self-generating characteristic of rapid growth has been one of the most important factors in the boom in the Southwest’s economy. This tremendous growth, of course, has been of great importance to the people of the area, as well as of benefit to the nation as a whole, but what does it mean, if anything, to the chemical industry? The implications to the chemical industry in some ways are so obvious that they might be overlooked or taken for

Vol. 43, No. 8’

granted-for example, the availability of the natural gas, oil, dfur, salt, and other raw materials which are vital to the petrochemical industry; the port facilities of the area and the easy access to the waterways which play an important part in the shipment of the industry’s products to the large eastern and western, markets, as well as to foreign markets; and the part the oil industry has had in developing technical men who are now making valuable contributions to the chemical industry. Also, the high schools, junior colleges, universities, and engineering schools, recognizing the Frowing need for trained personnel, are shaping their courses of study to meet the requirements and, hence, are turning out increasing numbers of technically trained students. The development of these southwesterp resources has probably been a necessary counterpart to the establishment and growth of the petrochemical industry; it has also provided a growing market for products of the chemical industry, a subject which is being covered in another paper of this symposium. While the developing southwestern economy has contributcd importantly to the chemical industry, that industry has becn of great benefit to the SouthTvest. Probably the greatest advantage the chemical industry has given the Southwest has bwn the broadening of the area’s income base. This area has brcn entirely too dependent on petroleum and agriculture, and fluctuations peculiar to these industries have had immediate repercursions on the income and prosperity of the area. Consequently, anything that can be done to broaden and to diversify the activity of the area will promote greater stability in its economy. The chemical industry has helped to stabilize not only the petroleum and petroleum refining industry but also the entire economy by bringing a new source of income to the people of the area. Moreover, as the Gulf Coast chemical industry has developed, it has fostered the growth of related industries which, in themselves, contribute to the growth and stability of the area. The principal factors promoting the expansion during the past decade were World War 11, the nationwide postwar boom, the growing importance of oil and gas in the nation’s economy, the progress in the petrochemical field, decentralization policies of large corporations, advances in farm techniques and practictis, government practices, and the self-generating characteristics of growth. There is reason to believe that these factors, for the most part, will continue to exert a stimulating influence during the next several years. Currently, the large defense program can be expected to maintain national demand a t high levels and, consequently, the demand for important southwestern raw materials. The oil and gas industry probably has not reached its peak in importance, and the petrochemical industry is expected to continue its rapid expansion. The defense program may even add impetus to decentralization policies of corporations, and high farm prices probably will continue to foster the application of improved agricultural techniques. Consequently, it would appear that the growth trends in the Southwest will continue during the next several years and that this area probably will continue to experience a more marked economic development than moqt other sections of the country. RECEIVED April 16, 1961.

Lion Oil Co. P l a n t at El Dorado. Ark. (See urrlclc. I y R .

i‘. T n l ! m n . p a w 1 7 . 3