NEWS TECHNOLOGY Economic impact of green technologies questioned Is the promise of environmental technology being oversold? Can it boost the economy, increase trade, spur industrial competitiveness, and create a clean environment? In some cases the answer may be yes, says Paul R. Portney, an economist and vice-president of Resources for the Future and a long-time decoder of the twists and turns in environmental regulations, technology, and profits. But some of the claims are "dead wrong," Portney said in a speech to the Second Annual Conference on the Environment, the Economy, and World Trade held in Durham, NC, November 15. The conference brought together some 150 environmental technology scientists, developers, and marketers for two days of discussions about the future of this growing field. More jobs? At best one million jobs are created by environmental industries, Portney says, but most are not high-tech jobs. Instead, most go to workers sitting behind the wheels of garbage trucks. Waste handling is the biggest environmental business, he says. Overall only about 0.8% of all U.S. jobs are environmentally related, about the same percentage as the normal yearly fluctuation in the 100-million-plus U.S. work force.
Environmental trade deficit? The United States ranks ahead of the rest of the world in balance of environmental trade, Portney says. He cites the most recent EPA figures for 1991: The United States has a $1.1 billion favorable balance of trade in environmental technologies, exporting $1.7 billion in environmental technologies and importing $570 million. Germany, the nation's strongest competitor, led the United States in 1989 and 1990, but in 1991 the United States bested Germany by $9 million. Do regulations cost jobs? In the long run, regulations have little effect, Portney says. A country's savings rate, domestic and international monetary policies, and worker education far outweigh environmental protection's economic influence. But environmental spending may have a small and slightly negative effect on employment growth, Portney says. He adds, however, that jobs are a "lousy way to keep score." Do regulations hurt competition? Portney and fellow researchers Robert Stavins and Adam Jaffee reviewed 100 studies and found "no consistent systematic evidence" to show that environmental regulations hurt the competitiveness of U.S. industries. Five to 10 studies found
some level of negative impact, but Portney, Stavins, and laffee do not consider this number significant. On the other hand, Portney notes, no solid evidence was found to support the thesis that more stringent environmental regulations will help a country's competitiveness. Role of government? The United States is already the world leader in environmental technology exports with the current level of government support. Consequently, Portney says it is unclear whether investments in environmental technologies offer a better return on the federal dollar than do investments in industrial sectors such as computers or electronics. What do regulations cost? One of the numbers economists have most confidence in is the amount of money needed for compliance with environmental regulations, Portney says. In the United States, $130-$140 billion or 2.2% of the gross domestic product is spent to comply with environmental regulations. Portney says the United States spends more than any other country. Its nearest competitors—Germany and other Western European countries—spend about 1.8% of GDP; Japan spends between 1 and 1.5%. —JEFF JOHNSON
OSTP WANTS FEEDBACK White House creating "national environmental technology strategy" The White House Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) wants advice as it puts together a plan to organize and coordinate federal support for environmental technologies, says David Rejeski, who is coordinating development of a "national environmental technology strategy" for OSTP. "We need feedback. Tell us what's good, what's bad, and what's nonsense," Rejeski says. "We are developing something called the U.S. Interagency Environmental Tech Office where you can come in at one point for all agencies. Our hope is to try to make the whole system very transparent." Rejeski says OSTP wants comments, especially from
those in environmental fields, as it draws up a final environmental technology strategy, which will be released in April on Earth Day, Rejeski says. "We plan to announce it along with supporting policies and programs and legislation if necessary," he says. A framework for discussion, Technology For A Sustainable Future, has been prepared by the White House to lay out its proposal. Rejeski encourages those interested in commenting to read the report and give OSTP a call. For copies of the technologies report, call 800-ENV6676. To comment on what should be in a federal environmental technology program, call 202-456-6084; fax 202-4566025; or e-mail to
[email protected].
VOL. 29, NO. 1, 1995 / ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY • 1 9 A
