6 Economic Potential of Plant Growth Regulators
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DAVID T. MANNING Research and Development Department, Union Carbide Corp., Agricultural Products Division, S. Charleston, W . Va. 25303
While plant growth regulants (PGRs) have emerged as a new, rapidly growing segment of agricultural chemicals, the novelty, risks, and technological difficulties of this area are challenges to be considered. Thus, many scientists seeking new experimental regulants for study in their specialty areas raise questions as to the practical results forthcoming. To this end better understanding is needed of how economic values for various regulant uses can be estimated and then translated into manufacturing incentives. Besides the discovery of new molecules, advances in PGRs will involve novel uses of old compounds and will depend upon developments in plant breeding. The optimum development of science in PGRs is seen as integrated with research in these other areas of crop production. T n considering the economic potential of plant growth régulants ( P G R s ) some definitions of terminology are required. In one sense the title topic refers to the future impact of growth régulant products on agriculture i n terms of increased values of grower products. These values w i l l be reflected by a dollar volume of P G R sales as a segment of the total future agricultural chemicals market. In another sense, P G R economic potential relates to the judgment of the economic values of new P G R product candidates i n individual crop use categories. M a n y persons i n industry, including those involved i n marketing and i n research and product development, must make, and are guided by, these judgments which determine the spectrum of uses for w h i c h a new compound is to be developed and, ultimately, whether the new compound is carried further or dropped. 57
In Plant Growth Regulators; Stutte, C.; Advances in Chemistry; American Chemical Society: Washington, DC, 1977.
58
P L A N T
GROWTH
REGULATORS
In a 1971 review, Wittwer was optimistic about P G R s but noted that to that date their growth had been limited by a limited number of high volume demands ( J ) . Today his optimism seems justified. W e have seen strong growth in horticultural crop régulants and exciting developments i n the areas of ethylene-releasing compounds and a variety of agents for increasing the sucrose content of sugarcane. In 1975 Farm Chemicals featured an article proclaiming "the threshold of the Age of P G R s " (2). The number of papers and patent issuings on the application of régulants to crop plants has increased rapidly each year since 1970. Still there are many questions and uncertainties for those joining this "gold rush. Screening for these agents is highly difficult, and field evaluation and proof of candidate efficacy are exquisitely sensitive to compound dose, timing, and interactions with the environment. Finally, these agricultural chemicals which function not by killing but by enhancing plant performance are spared none of the regulatory and economic hurdles faced in introducing new pesticides.
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A successful P G R must be profitable both to the grower and to the manufacturer, or else it w i l l remain a scientific curiosity. There have been disappointments and disillusionments to the grower i n this relatively new area. University workers express eagerness to work with experimental compounds of promise in their specialty areas yet also are concerned w i t h the practical results of their work. The high costs and the time required for introducing a new product are becoming widely appreciated. It would be of great benefit to these workers, and indeed to all participants in growth régulant technology, to have a better understanding of how economic values for various régulant uses can be estimated and translated into manufacturing incentives. W i t h sufficient assumptions made i n relation to manufacturing cost, compound potency, possible market scope and share, and percent yield increase it is possible to project, at least within limits, the economic possibilities of a new plant growth régulant operating i n areas having some precedent, such as for yield increases with soybeans, rice, or corn. Where P G R values are related directly to labor cost replacement or advantages i n harvest timing, other estimation models w i l l have to be used. Present topics of interest include economic aspects of P G R s i n horticultural and agronomic crops and i n floriculture and beet sugar production. P G R s are also effective i n optimizing quality of fruit. W i t h the quality aspect i n mind we may wonder about the future likelihood of economic incentives for increasing the protein content of cereals, w i t h growth-active chemicals supplementing plant breeding programs. This is a potential worldwide concern whose scope fits the multinational structure of the agricultural chemical industry. Perhaps some guidance can be obtained from recent plant breeding parallels.
In Plant Growth Regulators; Stutte, C.; Advances in Chemistry; American Chemical Society: Washington, DC, 1977.
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6.
MANNING
Economic Potential
59
A m i d the flush of discovery of new chemical structures w i t h growth activity, two other developments can be expected to influence this new technology strongly. First, much of value remains to be learned i n the new uses of old agricultural chemicals. There is no more dramatic example of this than the success of certain herbicides and their derivatives in cane sugar enhancement. N e w discoveries can be expected from experimentation with growth-active substances i n non-standard applications w i t h other crops and with unconventional doses and timing. Modest improvements i n crop performance, if consistent, can be quite valuable w i t h compounds whose development costs have, i n essence, already been paid. A second point is that P G R workers must be aware of developments in genetics. There can be no reasonable future for chemists who are developing new régulant compounds and plant breeders who are developing improved cultivars i n separate worlds. N e w techniques of plant modification by cell culture and hybridization portend a future of much more rapid plant improvements than have been possible w i t h conventional breeding techniques. W i t h both plant growth régulants and modern molecular genetics capable of removing the same biochemical constraints upon crop performance, the P G R researcher may imagine crops becoming so productive that P G R benefits become increasingly marginal. Basic research i n P G R s may have to be coordinated w i t h modern plant genetics. This is not to speak negatively of the economic potential of P G R s but to say that along w i t h improved plant genetics and crop protection chemicals, P G R s w i l l play an integrated, interdependent role i n the future of plant production. Literature Cited 1. Wittwer, S. H . , Outlook Agric. (1971) 6 (5) 205-217. 2. "Entering the Age of Plant Growth Regulators," Farm Chem. (1975) 138 (3) 15-26. RECEIVED
September 30, 1976.
In Plant Growth Regulators; Stutte, C.; Advances in Chemistry; American Chemical Society: Washington, DC, 1977.
