EDITORIALLY S P E A K I N G
The xatio~mlScience Foundation has just released a publication, "Inr-esting in Scientific Progress1961-1970" (KSF report 61-27), which it hails as a major policy document. The chief premise is that scientific progress concerns us all as individuals and as citizens of t.he nation. Statistics and interpretations are clearly set. fort,h. The meat of the report, however, is the projertion of trends and the analysis of their significance in t,he decade ahead of us. The reasonableness of these extrapolations is unequivocal; their realization must concern us all. The report treats two major themes: people and support. The interrelation is crucial. Support, even sufficient $0 meet projected needs, canuot be translated into people by outmod~dand nnimaginative science educat,ion. People
U S . population will increase from 180 to 200 millions from 1960 to 1970. During the same period, rvorld population will increase bj- 420 million to 3,330 million. Inference: Successful maintenance of our role in tho world's civilization depends on the quality, not the quantity of our future scientists and engineers. The percentage of college age young people having bachelor's degrees, now 18%, is doubling ever>- 18 sears. The number of science doctorates has increased from 400 in 1920 to the present 6,600 and indioates a doubling every 12 years. While the total labor foroe, now 74 million, increases a t a rate of 1.4% per year, the number of professional scientists and engineers in the lahor force, now 1.4 million, increases a t a rate of 6% per year. The number of doctoral scientists and engineers, now 87,000, increnfies s t the rate of 770 per year. Thia rvill double the present number by 1970. Of all doctoral age young people who score in the top 1% on intelligence tests, less than one in twenty attain science doctoratet. Inference: The trends shown by statistics suggest that the nation's needs for scientific personnel can he met and "still leave a wide margin of capneity svsililble for intellectual leadership in all professions." There are about 100,000 on the professional staffs of colleges and universities now teaching srienee; in 1970 the need will be 175,000. Basic research in these institutions now involves 80,000; in 1970 t h e need will he 150,000. Infe~enee:Numbers alone cannot acoomplish the hask without developing new methods of fundamental training and greater nurture of creativity during the apprenticeship for research.
suppolr
The present defioit in laboratory tcsching space must he overcome, not allowed t o increase. Inference: By 1970, $3.5 billion will have to be spent. The present need for research buildings is $500 million. Infwace: A total of $2.8 billion needs t o be provided in the next decade. Instmctional equipment facilities are inadequate a t present to the extent of $300 million. Demands for basic research equipment likewise are costlv and will increase. Inference: Insmine equipment far basic research an campuses. Salaries for the professional staffs teaching science in colleges and universities should increase from the present $800 million to $2,100 million in 1970. Textbook costs and all other operating expenses will increase. The same will be true for the support of basic research. Inference: These supporting costa for teaching will rise from the present $1.9 billion total to $5 billion by 1970: for basic research from $760 million to $2,200 million.
The message the report brings to the nation is direct and emphatic: Because national welfare, security and prosperity inereaningly demand an advancing technology, because technology increnringly needs and sprin- from science, because soientiic talent is s scarce resource, and because we have no monopoly on it, thwefore our goal must he to use our alrilities to the full.
Professional scientists, especially those whose careers are snent on cam-ouses. can read in this the challenee of two unique obligations. Support can come only from a citizenry convinced that its money is being spent for a vitally necessary program. This conviction can be based only on wide dissemination of knowledge. Clearly, this is a primary role for science education. The second obligation is a more personal concern: superior teaching is essential to superior science. "Time tested" can be no cover-up label for methods that actually are worn out and inefficient. Rapid advances on the research frontier cannot mean a widening gap of ignorance in the classroom. Investment in complacency cannot produce progress.
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Volume 38, Number 8, August 1961
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