Earth Summit This special issue of E S b T anticipates the United Nations Conference on Environment and Development to be held in Rio de Janeiro in June. By the time many of you have received this issue, the conference will be under way and, many feel, the fate of the Earth’s environment will be in the balance. This may be an exaggeration, but Rio is a milestone in the multinational debate of environment versus development. This debate will continue throughout the coming century-probably the most critical period yet for life on planet Earth. The next century will undoubtedly see major development of nations and regions that are now less industrialized and consume less than North America, Western Europe, and Japan. During the early part of the 21st century, we can expect to see the rapid development of Eastern Europe, Southeast Asia, India, portions of Africa and South America and, most importantly, the former Soviet Union and China. These regions will become larger consumers of energy, goods, and concomitantly will produce or cause the production of larger quantities of carbon dioxide, toxic wastes, and other unnatural emissions. In the latter part of the century, other regions that are now even more underdeveloped may emerge until the Earth as a whole is more industrialized, mechanized, computerized, and interconnected than America and Europe are today. Barring a nuclear war, mass disease, or the imposition of totalitarianism, there appears to be no way to stop this evolution. Superimposed on this development will be the continued rise in world population. The current annual growth rate of more than 1.5% will more than quadruple world population in a century, and even if the rate drops to I%, there will be more than 13 billion people on the planet at the turn of the 21st century-probably many more. This will be about the time that my new grandson’s great-great grandchild will be born. I, my children, and possibly my grandson will be gone, but what awaits our progeny is frightening to contemplate. The resulting stress on the natural environment will be immense and may wreck many natural ecosystems that we now take for granted. Moreover, by necessity there will be major changes in how we make the materials from which we clothe and feed people and carry out commerce. The supply of some minerals, including liquid petroleum 0013-936)(/92/0926-1069$03.0010 0 1992 American Chemical Society
(carbon),may be critically short. With the diminution or preservation of the world’s forests and the increase in population, paper and wood substitutes may be required, and it is not clear where they will come from. At the very minimum, it appears that we will require different sources of energy, especially if new technologies are energy intensive in the same way that consumer products, communications, and travel have become over the past few decades. One suspects that no single “magic energy bullet” will appear, and that all energy technologies of the future will have significant environmental impacts. As mechanization, computerization, and population grow, what will be left of the natural world as you and I know it? What chance will our descendants have to spend quiet time in the woods and observe wildflowers in bloom, or on a secluded beach where gulls and sandpipers scurry away from the incoming tide as they peck into the sand for a day’s meal? Will cultures that are still “primitive” be annihilated under the juggernaut of industrialization? Will all of humanity be forced to live in concrete jungles without the opportunity to observe the natural world as it evolved over millions of years? Will we be reduced to a race that depends on nuclear fusion for its energy, coal for its carbon, and organic synthesis for its food? The leaders who are meeting in Rio this month, especially those from the larger, more affluent nations, have an awesome responsibility to look beyond the political present into a future that is dark indeed. They must rise above nationalism and shortsightedness and develop new approaches to the control of pollution on the planet. But if they do not include in their agenda a realistic approach to dealing with overpopulation, all other actions may be to no avail. Let us hope for all humans, especially our descendants, that their decisions will be wise.
Environ. Sci. Technol., Vol. 26,
No. 6, 1992
1069
