GOVERNMENT
Few Ousters Expected in Coming Congressional Elections Despite 29 changeovers in the House and contests for 35 seats in the Senate, the fall election likely will allow most members to reprise roles David J. Hanson and Janice R. Long, C&EN Washington
Running against an incumbent U.S. Senator or Representative is akin to Sisyphus' punishment of pushing a huge rock up a mountain and never quite making it. It's more likely that almost all of the current incumbents will be back in their Washington offices come January, and that the same forces that shaped defense, education, science, and tax policy throughout the eighties will do so in the nineties as well, at least in the beginning. Going just by the numbers, there is the possibility of 35 seats changing hands in the 1990 Senatorial elections and 29 open contests among the 435 elections for the House. But with the balloting still three weeks away, three Democratic and one Republican Senator are already assured of their return to Washington in January. The Republicans couldn't find anyone willing to run against Democrat Sam Nunn of Georgia, who won his last election with 83% of the vote. Nunn is, and will remain, the influential chairman of the Armed Services Committee, which plays a large role in deciding how much the Department of Defense will spend for R&D. Also unopposed in their bids for reelection are Democrat David H. Pryor of Arkansas, chairman of the Select Committee on Aging, and Republican Ted Stevens of Alaska, former minority and majority whip.
Nunn (D.-Ga.) The fourth returning Senator is Democrat J. Bennett Johnston of Louisiana, chairman of the Energy & N a t u r a l Resources C o m m i t t e e , which among other things sets directions for and authorizes funding of the Department of Energy's R&D programs. Johnston barely managed to escape a runoff election against David Duke, a Louisiana legislator and former grand wizard of the Ku Klux Klan. Johnston got 56% of the votes to Duke's 44%. Under Louisiana's elections laws, everyone in a primary runs against everybody else, regardless of party, and anyone who garners more than 50% of the vote is declared the winner. Two o t h e r Senate committee chairmen facing the voters this year are being challenged by women. Judiciary chairman Joseph R. Biden Jr. (D.-Del.) is expected to win easily over Republican Jane Brady. However Democrat Claiborne Pell of Rhode Island, head of the Foreign Relations Committee, is facing a
m u c h t o u g h e r o p p o n e n t , Rep. Claudine Schneider, in his bid for a sixth term. A number of other Senators who serve on the Armed Services Committee are up for reelection this year and while not as fortunate as Nunn, many might as well be. For example the committee's ranking minority member, Republican John Warner of Virginia faces only token opposition from one of political maverick Lyndon Larouche's followers. The man who would be the ranking minority member if he cared to pull rank, Strom T h u r m o n d of South Carolina, is seeking his seventh term in the Senate also against weak opposition. Thurmond, who switched his allegiance from the Democrats to the Republicans in 1964, is being challenged by a former Central Intelligence Agency agent, Robert Cummings, who is running as a Democrat this year but was decisively beaten by Thurmond in the GOP primary in 1984. Two other committee Republicans, William S. Cohen of Maine
Johnston (D.-La.) October 15, 1990 C&EN
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Government and Malcolm Wallop of Wyoming, are strongly favored to win their election contests, and a third, Pete Wilson, can't lose. Wilson is running for Governor of California; if he loses he will return to the Senate, if he wins he will appoint his own successor to that body. The fourth Republican, David R. Coats of Indiana, who was appointed to finish the term of Vice President Dan Quayle, faces more than token opposition in state Rep. Baron R. Hill. The Armed Services Committee's second-ranking Democrat, J. James Exon of Nebraska, holds one of the seats that Republicans hope to win in 1990. Exon, chairman of the Subcommittee on Strategic Forces & Nuclear Deterrence as well as of the Commerce Subcommittee on Surface Transportation, garnered only 51% of the vote in his last bid for reelection, but he started campaigning in February and is expected to win against former Republican Rep. Hal Daub. The committee's third-ranking Democrat, Carl M. Levin of Michigan, who chairs the Subcommittee on Conventional Forces & Alliance Defense plus the Small Business Subcommittee on Innovation, Technology & Productivity, is expected to win a competitive election against Rep. Bill Schuette. Albert Gore Jr. of Tennessee, the fourth Democrat on the committee r u n n i n g for reelection this year, isn't expected to have any more trouble winning than Nunn will. Gore, who has been very active on science and technology issues during his first term and who chairs the Commerce Subcommittee on Science, Technology & Space, is expected to win handily over William R. Hawkins, an economist from Knoxville. Of course, other Senators besides those who serve on the Armed Services Committee are up for reelection this year. One of those is a man whose last name at least has been on everyone's lips in recent weeks— Republican Phil Gramm of Texas, who coauthored the law that was supposed to make the federal deficit disappear by fiscal 1991. Gramm is expected to win easily over state Sen. Hugh Palmer. However, Republican Mark O. Hatfield of Ore22
October 15, 1990 C&EN
gon, ranking minority member and former chairman of the Appropriations Committee, is expected to have a more difficult time against Harry Lonsdale, a wealthy business executive and environmentalist. The incumbent lock that exists in the Senate is even stronger in the House. In this election, it is more than probable that over 98% of the present office holders will be returned to their seats. Of the 435 seats up for reelection in the House of Representatives, only 29 are open because the incumbent has decided to retire, seek another office, or, in one case, lost his party's nomination. Senate races have attracted eight House members and g o v e r n o r s h i p s a n o t h e r six. However, no Senator seems to be resigning to run for a House seat. For months election watchers predicted this election wouldn't do much to change the party ratio of the House—it was expected to stay about the same with a 257 to 176 Democratic advantage (there are two vacancies). But the budget problem and, especially, President Bush's apparent capitulation on the issue of new taxes have raised the prospect of some Republican losses. It now seems possible for the Democrats to pick up five to 10 additional House seats in November. As with the House in general, the Representatives who are influential on science and technology issues are expected to be reelected fairly easily.
Incumbents (clockwise from above left): Brown (D.-Calif.), Biden (D.-DeL), Pell (D.-R.L), Dingell (D.-Mich.), and Gaydos (D.-Pa.) Except for a few subcommittee chairmen who are retiring, committee leadership will shift little. One of the most important, and surely one of the most visible, leaders on science and technology issues is Democrat John D. Dingell of Michigan. As chairman of the House Committee on Energy & Commerce, Dingell has been a major player in the reauthorization of the Clean Air Act and other environmental legislation. He also headed the bitter investigation of possible scientific misconduct involving associates of David Baltimore. Running against Republican Frank Beaumont, Dingell is a sure bet to retain both his seat and his chairmanship. The Committee on Energy & Commerce Subcommittee on Health & Safety is chaired by another influential member, Henry A. Waxman (D.-Calif.). Waxman's efforts to strengthen the provisions of the clean air law relating to toxic air emissions have sometimes brought him into conflict with Dingell, who represents Michigan's auto indus-
tries. First elected to the House in 1974, Waxman is challenged this year by Republican John N. Cowles, who lost to Waxman in the 1988 election by a 3-to-l margin. California is also the site of one of the few House races that involves an incumbent with scientific training. George E. Brown Jr., who has a degree in physics, faces, in his bid for a 13th term in the House, county supervisor Bob Hammock. Brown has always seemed politically vulnerable, but manages to survive, usually with just over 50% of the vote. He now serves as chairman of the Agriculture Committee's Subcommittee on D e p a r t m e n t Operations, Research & Foreign Agriculture but has in the past held leadership positions on the science committee. The House Committee on Science, Space & Technology is chaired by Democrat Robert A. Roe of New Jersey, who faces no Republican opposition this year. Roe's stewardship of this committee over the past two years has focused on items on the science wish list such as improve-
ments in research facilities, the Superconducting Super Collider, and space projects. In fact, one of Roe's first moves was to insert "space" in the name of the committee. One of the key subcommittees is the Space Science & Applications Subcommittee, currently chaired by Democrat Bill Nelson of Florida. But Nelson is running for Governor of Florida, so he will not return. The second-ranking member of the full SS&T Committee is California's Brown, who made an abortive attempt to chair the subcommittee two years ago, losing to Nelson, whose district includes the Cape Kennedy launch site. Brown, who opposes the militarization of both space and the National Aeronautics & Space Administration, would probably take a different view of the space agency's projects if he decided to once again seek this chairmanship. In the area of health and safety, t h e r e t i r e m e n t of A u g u s t u s F. Hawkins (D.-Calif.) opens up the chairmanship of the House Committee on Education & Labor. This committee, with jurisdiction over the Occupational Safety & Health Administration as well as domestic education programs and student assistance programs, could be chaired by
Joseph M. Gaydos, an old-fashioned Democrat from the steel-producing towns near Pittsburgh. Gaydos is third in seniority on the committee (second is M i c h i g a n Democrat William D. Ford, who already is chairman of the Committee on Post Office & Civil Service) and could become head of the full committee, signaling more Congressional focus on OSHA in the future. Aside from Brown, the only science-trained Representative in the next session will be Republican Don Ritter from eastern Pennsylvania. Ritter is a former metallurgy professor and is the ranking minority member on the Investigations & Oversight Subcommittee of the Science, Space & Technology Committee. He has been a leading opponent of the Superconducting Super Collider and supporter of advancing technology by developing a domestic high-definition television industry. Ritter is expected to prevail over Democrat Richard J. Orloski, an Allentown attorney, in the general election. Bruce A. Morrison (D.-Conn.) is also among the rare Representatives with a science degree. But he will not be returning to Congress in 1991; he is currently embroiled in a tough race for Governor of Connecticut. Although Morrison received an undergraduate degree in chemistry, he went to law school and never practiced chemistry. Scientists are not challenging incumbents in this election to the degree they did in previous years. A brief examination of challengers usually finds four or five chemical professionals or other scientists running for national office (they are not often successful), but this year that number has dropped to one. Only chemist Gordon R. Johnston, a Pennsylvania Republican and college professor, seems to be making the effort. He is running against Democrat Joe Kolter in western Pennsylvania as he did two years ago. Johnston, as well as other scientists who run, are all concerned about the lack of technical knowledge in Congress and want to balance the equation between technology and law. Thus far, there has been precious little success in meeting that goal. D October 15, 1990 C&EN
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