VOL.
3.
NO. 7
FORECASTING RROM APTITUDEEXAMINATION SCORES
785
FORECASTING FROM APTITUDE EXAMINATION SCORES JOHN D. CLARK, UNIVERSITY on NEWMEXICO, ALBUQWRQUB, NEWMEXICO The Iowa Placement Examination, series CAI, was given to ninety-one of the ninety-eight students who registered for Chemistry 1 a t the University of New Mexico, a t the opening of the first semester of the 1925-26 college year. The class in Chemistry 1 was composed largely of graduates of New Mexico high schools. Students who had, and those who had not, taken chemistry in high school were registered in this class. Laboratory sections were arranged according to the free hours of the student schedules. In this placement examination 62 constituted a perfect score. The scores made by the students examined ranged from 5Z2/3 down to 232/3. This range of 29 was divided into ten deciles and each student placed in the decile to which his score belonged. No student whose aptitude score fell in the lowest three deciles completed the course. Sickness, difficulties over funds, too heavy schedules, etc., were reasons assigned for non-completion of the course. One student was dismissed from college because of poor academic standing. It is significant that these troubles fell increasingly heavily upon students as they were listed in descending deciles as follows: TABLEI STUDENTSWHO DROPPED OUT O F THE
10th Decile 9th Decile 8th Decile 7th Decile 6th Decile 5th Decile 4th Decile 3rd Decile 2nd Decile 1st D e d e
COURSE POR ANYREASON WHATSOEVER 10% of those in Decile 13% of those in Decile 13% of 9 o s e in Decile 25% of those in Decile 50% of those in Decile 70% of those in Decile 33'/s% of those in Decile 100%'of those in Decile 100% of those in Decile 100% of those in Decile
At the end of the semester, the ninety-eight students who had registered for Chemistry 1 could be classified as follows: TABLE I1 Withdrawn from college Permitted by Deans to drop Chemistry 1 without penalty Passed the course with a grade of A Passed the course with a grade of B Passed the course with a grade of C Passed the course with a grade of D Received the mark of I (Incomplete) Conditioned Failed
16 9 3 14 23
18 3 1 11
-
TOTAL 98
At the close of the semester the grades made by the students who had completed the course were correlated with their aptitude scores. A correlation chart is given, grades being plotted along the vertical, and aptitude scores along the horizontal axis.
Chart It can he noted that twelve per cent of those finishing the work of the class had scores that corresponded with their aptitude scores, twenty-one per cent did better P work than their aptitude scores indicated Q that they could do (students making low aptitude scores had h been warned to be % very alert and careful), and that sixtyseven per cent did %\ r work of a grade lower t +. than their indicated capacity. 0 'I " 0 Zo In these figures can 0 0 he seen an excellent nr 0 0 0 argument for the sec\ 0 " r0 0 tioning of classes on I 3 4 s 7 a s 10 the basis of ability. Apf,tude s c o r e s Such sectioning is, FIG.1.-Correlation chart. however, more difficult to put into operation in the smaller colleges than in the larger institutions, due to the limited teaching personnels of the former, and to exigencies of class-hour schedules. Conclusions (I) The results of this study indicate that from very low scores made in a standard aptitude examination one can forecast unsuccessful completion of the course with a high degree of accuracy. (2) The scores made on the aptitude examination predict, with considerable accuracy, the upper limits of student attainment. (3) There is nothing about the aptitude test which can forecast how much below one's aptitude his final grade may be. We must recognize that extra-curricular activities, lack of interest, or laziness can easily pull the grades of bright students well below their aptitude scores. o
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