Future Liquid Fuels R. C. GUNNESS, Associate Director of Research, Standard Oil Co. (Ind.), Chicago, 111.
T h e d e m a n d for petroleum products, which has quadrupled during the past 2 5 years, is e x p e c t e d to i n c r e a s e a n o t h e r 3 0 % b y 1970 . . . D o m e s t i c c r u d e oil p r o d u c t i o n , some foreign imports and synthesis from natural gas a n d coal can m e e t the n e e d
A. DISCUSSION of the future of liquid fuels can be broken down logically enough into three interlocking basic questions: "What kind of fuel?/' "How much?," and "When?" The basic concepts sur rounding the topic are easy to present to a technically trained group, but their reception is usually hampered by the necessary use of the jargon of the petro leum industry. Every business has its own terminology, and those engaged in one never quite fully understand the language of another. Automobile manu facturers think in terms of hundreds of units per day, egg brokers in thousands of gross, cotton merchants in bales, farmers in bushels, and oil men in barrels—usually barrels per day. * In order to get a common basis of under standing, let us first visualize what a barrel of liquid petroleum means. By definition, it means 42 U. S. gallons of oil. The contents of seven such barrels would weigh about a ton. We say "would weigh" because oil is not actually handled in barrels of this size. Today the 42-gallon barrel is only a basis for calculation, handed down to us from the days when wooden-staved barrels of this size were actually used to hold and transport petroleum. We still stick to it as a mathe matical unit of measurement; but for practical purposes we use a steel drum instead, usually of 55 gallons capacity. For further orientation, let us consider the fuel value of a ton of oil (that is, seven barrels) as related to a ton of coal. The ratio will differ, of course, with vary ing fuel qualities, but, roughly speaking, a ton of average oil has in it about one third more British thermal units than a ton of average coal. The useful heat obtainable by burning these fuels varies tremendously with the kind of petroleum product or coal and the conditions of com bustion, but it is fair to state that the liquid nature of petroleum has thus far given it a large and consistent advantage VOLUME
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over coal in actual efficiency of combustion. Now, hav Mt the Aruba refinery ing e s t a b lished a basis for our thinking about this seven-to-the^cin barrel of oil, let's examine our national re quirements for petroleum. During 1947 we used about 5.8 million such barrels of petroleum every day. But how much is that? Τα convey its magnitude, let us express it in more familiar dimensions. Five million eight hundred thousand bar rels is one fourth of tbe volume of water used daily i n the city of Chicago. A tank to hold that much petroleum would be a sizable structure. Suppose we were to convert the Stevens Hotel, including the annex, into an oil-tight tank by sealing up the windows and doors and cleaning out the inside o f the structure. It would take two such tanks t o hold the nation's daily requirements of petroleum, and the United States derives more than 30% of the energy it uses from this oil. Geometric Technological Progression So much, for groundwork. Now, how about liquid fuels in the future? Folklore contains sin ornithological curiosity—a bird that flies tau first because he is more interested in seeing where he has been than where he i s going. Such a backward attitude is to be deplored, whether ex hibited by a bird or a man. On the other hand, a navigator cannot chart a course without checking back on the points pre viously traversed, and an engineer cannot determine the trend of a curve without reference t o points already ascertained. In order t o appraise the future of liquid petroleum fuels, let us first survey the progress of the past 25 years. Twenty-five years ago world-wide pro duction of crude oil was about 1.9 million barrels per day; by 1947 it had risen to »
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more than 8 million barrels per day. Current U. S. production of crude oil is at a rate twice as great as in 1935 and four times as great as in 1921. Refinery crude runs in the United States were about 1.2 million barrels per day in 1921; in 1947 they were in the neighborhood of 5.3 million barrels per day. Twenty-five years ago about 27% of each barrel of crude oil was made into gasoline. Last year over 40% was so converted, and in modern equip ment we could produce a 75% yield of gasoline if this were the only product de sired. In 1918 we produced 200,000 barrels per day of gasoline; now the figure is more than 10 times greater. In sum mary, it may thus be seen that, over the past quarter century, the petroleum in dustry has increased its output of all products more than fourfold. Impressive as the increase in production and refining has been, the figures do not at all reveal the magnitude of the technologi cal strides that the industry has taken under the guidance of its scientists and engineers. The rate of progress in product quality and product diversity has been geometric rather than arithmetic. With out these quality advances, the quanti tative advance already referred to would have been impossible. Nevertheless, al though progress over the past 25 years has been enormous, it has barely enabled the oil industry to keep pace with an ap parently ever-increasing demand. The Past Few Years From a broad standpoint, a review of what has happened during the past quarter century and a projection of what will happen during the next similar period 2123
Europe must continue to diminish the very reserves upon which we have to place our main reliance, unless foreign crude production can be markodlv increased. In order to meet our domestic demand for products in the future, we must both stimulate our own producing industry to the fullest extent and also import some additional oil. These two facts have been cited in many enunciations of policy by government bodies and by industry groups representing all shades of opinion. It is probable that for many, many years to come we may place our main reliance on domestic petroleum reserves, and that in peacetime we shall be able to import such additional quantities of petroleum as may be needed. Sound national policy obviously indicates that we should not permit our domestic reserves to fall to a low ebb merely to avoid importing foreign crude oil. In arriving at a suitable level for foreign imports, cognizance must be given to the problems of national defense that will arise in the event peacetime imports are cut off. This subject is now under study by military and petroleum industry personnel. No longer must we rely exclusively on either domestic or foreign petroleum for liquid fuels, as they can be produced synthetically from such raw materials as coal or natural gas and petroleum can be obtained by extraction from shale or tar sands. When and if crude oil becomes sufficiently scarce, we can turn to these alternative sources to supply our liquid hydrocarbon fuels for many years. Necessity for Planning About five months ago, the subject of synthetic liquid fuels began receiving national prominence when Secretary of Defense Forrestal proposed an $8 billion synthetic-iuels program as a national defense measure. Secretary of Interior Krug then recommended that $9 billion be spent during the next 5 to 10 years on the development of an American synthetic fuels industry. These pronouncements have served to bring home to the public the necessity of planning for our future oil supplies—planning of the type that has been going on quietly within the petroleum industry for years. While it is sound for the nation to take whatever steps may be necessary to guarantee an adequate oil supply for the future, the most effective steps can only be determined after a more careful analysis of the situation. A number of prominent representatives of the petroleum industry have recently presented their views before the House Armed Services Oil Subcommittee in Washington. In their remarks they have not endorsed the forced creation of any large-scale syntheticfuels industry but have pointed out more economical means of assuring the country an adequate fuel supply. Even against a possible military emergency, the importa2126
tion and storing of petroleum would be much more logical and would be an impetus to orderly expansion of the domestic oil industry. Bruce K. Brown, of Standard Oil (Ind.), pointed out that the steel requirements for such a program would be overwhelming in a period when normal crude oil production and transportation is already hampered by a shortage of steel. He also called attention to the· excessive demands that such a program would impose on the coal industry. E. V. Murphirce of* the Standard Oil Development Co. presented a studied appraisal of the economics of synthetic liquid fuels. He postulated that, if 500,000 barrels per davy were synthesized from natural g»s, 500,000 from shale, and 1,000,000 from coal, the cost of the proposed program would be about $17,000,000,000. Although this 2,000,000 barrels of synthetic oil is only 40% of our current consumption, the staggering cost is more than twice the total assessed valuation of the city of Chicago. While this amount of money could be minted, it is really the materials and manpower which it represents that are the stumbling blocks to such aja undertaking. The futility of relying on the hurried construction of plants to synthesize petroleum from these oth.er natural resources is apparent. A fairly complete picture of the economics of our future fuels is now being assembled by a committee of oil, gas, shale, and ooal exrperts from industry and government. The report of this committee will make available to military and other governmental authorities a sounder basis o n which to plan for the future. Fischer-Tropsch Most Significant Synthetic Fuel Process I have referred to the research and development worik that has been going on in the petroleutm industry on synthetic liquid fuels. This -work has involved studies of both natural gas and coal as source materials, and -the Bureau of Mines has been active for some time in investigating oil shale. Of the synthetic processes utilizing these raw materials, the first to move toward commercial realization is that applying the Fischer-Tropsch process to natural gas, since this material does not require miming and is expected to produce liquid fuels at lower initial cost than the alternatives mentioned. While it is recognized that our natural gas reserves are limited and that coal will ultimately be the major raw material for synthesizing petroleum, it is believed that much of the knowledge gained by commercial synthesis from natural gas will be applicable to synthesis from coal. It is thus apparent, that the FischerTropsch process constitutes the most significant method for synthesizing liquid fuels, and a brief description of it seems in order. CHEMICAL
In the Fischer-Tropsch process employing natural gas, the first step may seem to be in the wrong direction: the gas is partially burned with oxygen to obtain a mixture of hydrogen and carbon monoxide. This so-called "synthesis gas" is then passed over a "fluid* ' catalyst. Under proper conditions, the hydrogen and carbon monoxide react to produce liquids that range all the way from gasoline to heavy distillate fuels, and a variety of oxygenated compounds are made as byproducts. Under the stimulus of a dearth of crude oil in Germany, the synthesis of hydrocarbons from carbon monoxide and hydrogen was first exploited commercially in 1923, following development work by Fischer and Tropsch. In the German commercial plants, carbon monoxide and hydrogen were obtained by the reaction of coal or coke with steam. The synthesis required external heating to 1,500° F. and was conducted in fixed-bed reactors utilizing a cobalt catalyst promoted with thoria. The hydrocarbon product was primarily paraffinic, the resulting gasoline was of poor quality, and the whole process was not economic as a competitor with crude-oil refining. American petroleum technologists began to take an active interest in this process about 10 years ago. It was realized that, if means could be found to make it economically feasible, it would provide a bulwark against the day when crude petroleum became scarce and costly. The Fischer-Tropsch process was made more attractive by the potential use of natural gas in place of coal and by American developments that reduced the cost of oxygen to such a level that it could be used in place of steam. Oxygen would be more advantageous in that its reaction with methane would provide heat for use in other parts of the process. Another feature that could be incorporated to decrease the investment and operating costs was the use of the "fluid" technique for handling the catalyst. Intensive research was initiated in America and has resulted in a modified process having the anticipated advantages over the earlier German process and employing an improved iron catalyst. In this development the Stanolind Oil and Gas Co. and its parent company, Standard Oil (Ind.), have been active participants. Their research and development work has been largely centered at Tulsa, where Stanolind's pilot plant is located. Research efforts have brought the synthesis process to the point where it is economically attractive under certain conditions, and currently two commercial plants are being engineered and constructed in this country. One is being built by the Carthage Hydrocol Corp. at Brownsville, Tex., and the other by Stanolind in the vast Hugoton gas field of western Kansas. Both plants will have nominal capacities of about 6,000 barrels AND
ENGINEERING
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per day of liquid hydrocarbons and will be generally similar in design. The hydrocarbons produced in the synthesis consist principally of straightchain compounds ranging from methane to solid waxes. The major portion of the product is unsaturated in structure. This is in sharp contrast to the highly paraffinic materials obtained with the German cobalt catalyst and results in gasoline of much higher octane number. The finished gasoline from the Hugoton plant will have a clear ASTM octane number of about 80, and the heavier products will compare favorably with similar refined products from petroleum. The Hugoton plant is expected to produce each day 5,400 barrels of gasoline, 700 barrels of distillate fuels, and 300 barrels of heavy fuel oil. The oxygenated chemicals formed as by-products in the synthesis reaction include alcohols, aldehydes, ketones, and acids. In a plant producing 6,000 barrels per day of synthetic hydrocarbons, the estimated yield of chemicals is about 420,000 pounds, or about 1,500 barrels, per day. These chemicals occur in quite a complex mixture, and finding ways of separating and purifying the individual components has constituted a challenging problem for research men. The commercial recovery and subsequent processing of this variety of oxygenated chemicals has opened new fields of research in organic
chemistry and chemical engineering. The search is on for new industrial uses for many of these by-products which have never before been available in commercial quantities. It should be noted that, although the fuel output of a plant such as we have just visualized will be insignificant when compared to the demand figures, the yields of some of the chemical by-products will approach, equal, or even surpass the total current production of such compounds in the United States. Extensive facilities for separating and purifying the chemicals will be built adjacent to both the Brownsville and Hugoton plants. The Fischer-Tropsch process will soon be operating on a commercial scale in economic competition with crude oil as a source of our liquid fuels. While the initial commercial operations will make only a minor fraction of the daily demand for these fuels, the proved feasibility of the process and its applicability to coal should end all serious concern anyone might have about the outcome of future exploration for new oil pools. Future Quality Requirements Thus far we have talked about future liquid fuels from the standpoint of quantity only. What qualities of fuel may we expect? We have first to consider the trend in development of the internal-
combustion engine. Some considerable part of the total technical impetus toward improving the spark-ignited internal-conibustion power plant and its fuel has, i n recent years, been drawn from the need for improving aircraft engines and heavy truck engines. A part, at least, of this impetus is being withdrawn. More and more Dieselization of heavy trucks is anticipated, and aircraft development— always spurred on mainly by national defense considerations and financed largely by the Government—seems firmly directed toward jet and turbine-jet power plants. At the same time, we know that the automobile manufacturers are working an engines that will have higher compression ratios and will require gasoline of higher octane number. Eventually they intend to turn out cars that will efficiently use gasoline of 1/5 research octane number, or even higher. These cars will go farther on less gasoline, but since there will also be more of them, total gasoline consumption in the country will continue to rise. We shall therefore be faced with two simultaneous demands—for higher quality gasoline, and for more of it. From the early twenties until the early forties it was possible, through a series of technological advances, to decrease the cost of gasoline while steadily increasing the quality; but the time has come when (Continued on page 2171)
Symposium on Nucleonics and Analytical Chemistry Left. The new $5 million building of the Technological Institute of Northwestern University, showing four of the six wings which contain the 350 rooms used by the physics, chemistry, and civil, mechanical, electrical, and chemical engineering departments Below· C. J. Rodden, general chairman of the symposium ; S. C. Lind, honorary chairman; L, DFrizsell, chairman of the committee on local arrangements; and P, J. Elving, cliairinan of the Division of Analytical and Micro Chemistry
JTV DISPLAY of equipment for nuclear chemical work will feature the Symposium on Nucleonics and Analytical Chemistry, to be held at Northwestern Technological Institute, Evanston, III., Aug. 13 and 14, under the sponsorship of the ACS Division of Analytical and Micro Chemistry and Analytical Chemistry. The exhibit is being arranged by the Argonne National Laboratories under the direction of W. M. Manning. Further information on the content of the exhibit, along with details of the complete program, are given on page 2128. VOLUME
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CHEMICALS New
Research
or gaseous fuel seems certain to be required. The quality of the liquid fuel is unlikely to be critical, so long as clean distillates are used.
Chemicals
C YCLOHEXADXENE-1.4 C YCLOHEXADIENE-1,3 CYCLOPENTENE
The Requirement Can Be Met I n summary, we have seen that the demand for petroleum products has quadrupled during the past 25 years, and that it may be expected to increase another 30«% by 1970. By this time the total demand will exceed 7 million barrels per day. This requirement can be met by healthy domestic crude oil production, some foreign imports, and synthesis from natural gas and coal. "The quantities of synthetic liquid fuel that will probably become available in the nest few years will seem very large in terms of the technological achievement involved; but measured in terms of our total requirements for liquid fuels, the fraction produced by synthesis is apt to be small for several decades, and its rate of growth will depend on the law of supply and demand. It appears unlikely that economics will permit liquid fuels synthesized from coal to compete for markets in which the direct use of coal is an alternative. We can, therefore, expect a gradually diminishing supply of residual fuel oil for industrial purposes, so that coal will be called upon to handle an increasing share of the expanding industrial-fuel load. Nonetheless, an adequate volume of high-quality liquid fuels will be available to meet ail demands most efficiently served by petroleum fuels.
HEXADIENS-I.S
2-CHLOROCYCLOHEXA2ÎONE w-BROMUNDECYLIC ACID FARCHAN RESEARCH LABORATORIES 609E. 127th S t . Cleveland 8, OHio
F u t u r e Liquid Fuels (Continued from page £127)
further substantial quality increases wiU cost real money. When the average for all the gasoline produced in the eouirtry has to be raised to 95 research; octane number or above, it will mean upgrading most of the present components of gasoline by high-cost processing. While a certain quality improvement can be realized at low cost through technological improvements in refining, the cost of gasoline must certainly go up as quality i s substantially increased. Turning to other fu4s, we can expect to see an increase in some of the quality requirements of high-speed Diesel fuels. For many years the Diesel engine was considered an omnivorous device tbat would operate· on almost anything. Now, however, interest centers i n particular forms of the Diesel engine—from which high speeds and outputs are exacted—that we find are anything but insensitive to fuel quality. The problems of fitting fuels to Diesels are likely to increase; but, with further research, it may turn out that fuels which are not now employed in high-speed Diesels can be so utilized. It appears that cetane number has been overemphasized as a yardstick of quality, and that performance of a Diesel engine in service is b y no means indicated precisely by cetane number as now measured. The actual variables to be reckoned with include both engine and fuel characteristics. IVIany of the performance factors exist only in the service engine itself, and fuels must therefore be evaluated in that engine. Looking ahead, the gas turbine also may have an appreciable effect o n the demand and quality of liquid fuels. Because the blades of the gas turbine are particularly vulnerable to the harmful effects of ash and corrosion, a clean liquid VOLUME
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£xchoH#e> . . .
PRESENTED before the panel discussion on "Fuels aad Lubricants, Present and Future" at the Chicago Technical Conference, March 24, 1948.
Seventh British Pharmacopeia Published On Sept. 1, 1948, a seventh edition of the British Pharmacopeia will become the official version for all purposes. It is about 90 years since a Medical Act provided that the General Medical Council should have published under its direction a book containing a list of medicines and compounds, and the manner of preparing them, together with the true weights and measures by which they are to be prepared and mixed. The last edition was issued in 1932, and a new one would have appeared in 1942 but for the war interruption. Meantime six official addenda were produced to keep pace with advances in medical knowledge. The B.P. 1948 has involve 1 much work to bring it up to date. Latin titles of drugs and preparations are retained, and weights and measures are given both the metric and imperial systems. -
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Supplier wanted for PARA AMINO SALICYLIC ACID HEPARIN on contract basis. State price, delivery possibilities, and specifications. Box 9 0 2 - H - 7 , Chero. & Ens. News, Easton, Pa.
Large Continuing Supply ACETONE - Methanol Typical Analysis: Acetone Methanol Specific Gravity @ 25°/25° C Dryness
80 to 85% Balance .7905 t o .7912 Miscible w i t h 19 volu m e s of 66° B a u m e Gasoline @ 20° C
Colorless Boiling P o i n t Acidity
54° t o 57° C .01 as Acetic
Non-volatile Matter
.003 Grams per C.C.
WILLIAM D. NEUBERG COMPANY, INC. 420 Lexington Ave., New York 17 · LExington 2-3324
VERSE HE * THE MODERN SEQUESTRANT SALTS OF Ethylene diamine, tetra acetic acid form soluble, non-ionic chelates with a large number of metallic ions. NeOCOCH,
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BERSWORTH CHEMICAL COMPANY F r a m i n g h a m , Mass. 2171
