CIENCE & TECHNOLOGY
GLOBALIZATION OF SCIENCE ROLLS ON Growth of scientific literature remains strong, while the WORLD OF SCIENCE continues to flatten MICHAEL HEYLIN, C&EN WASHINGTON
GLOBALIZATION of science is a hot topic. Yet, no single set of quantitative data gives a definitive fix on what is going on in science and where science is being done. There are data compilations—such as on R8cD spending and investment, patent activity, and scientific manpower—that each give part of the evolving worldwide story. Another such indicator is detailed yearby-year information on the number of articles published in peer-reviewed scientific and engineeringjournals. If analyzed with caution, such data can identify, if not always explain, broad trends in scientific activity. The latest data on article publication from the National Science Foundation, Thomson Scientific (formerly the Institute for Scientific Information, or ISI), Chemical Abstracts Service (CAS), and the American Chemical Society's journals operation all indicate above-average worldwide growth recently and especially rapid and substantial gains for China and selected other Asian and Western European nations. The NSF/ISI data are through 2003; the CAS and ACS data are through 2005. The new data also confirm the relatively slower growth for papers from the U.S., which, nevertheless, remains the largest
The U.S.'s share of all scientific papers published worldwide dropped, according to NSF/ISI, from 38% in 1988 to 30% in 2003. By the CAS count, the decline was from 27% in 1988 to 23% in 2005. The percentage of the papers published in ACS journals that are from U.S. sources fell the most, from 64% in 1988 to 39% in 2005. For all these data sets, a paper is attributed to a nation by institutional affiliation of its author or authors at the time of publication, not by the nationality of the authors. These major findings confirm and extend the three major trends in scientific publication described two years ago in C8cEN: These trends are of solid growth almost worldwide, a huge surge in papers from rapidly developing nations, and erosion of the U.S.'s share (C8cEN, June 14, 2004, page 38). However, one possible inference from the two years of new data is that the prolonged decline in the U.S.'s share of papers and abstracts maybe slowing. The percentage of CAS abstracts from U.S. sources held at just over 23% for 2003,2004, and 2005. The U.S. share of the NSF count slipped slightly from 30.9% in 2001 to 30.2% in 2003. And the U.S. share of the papers published in ACS journals slipped from 40.2% in 2003 to 38.6% in 2005. This is a 1.6%
single national source of papers by a substantial margin. From 2001 to 2003, the NSF count— which is derived from ISI data—of papers worldwide NSFS COUNT OF rose by 7.5%, or 3.5% per year. SCIENTIFIC PAPERS This growth is higher than Number of U.S. papers grew by only the average 2.7% average annual growth for the previous 1 % per year from 1988 to 2003 13 years. The 2003^0-2005 THOUSANDS increase in the number of papers abstracted by CAS 38.1% 466.4 288.6 177.9 1988 497.1 187.2 309.9 37.7 1989 was 12.5%, or 6.1% per y^*-, 317.2 37.6 191.6 508.8 1990 and well above the average of 3.5% per year for the 15 previ37.6 194.0 321.5 515.5 1991 ous years. The 2003-1.0-2005 348.7 36.3 198.9 547.6 1992 increase in papers published 197.4 36.5 343.1 540.5 1993 inACSjournalswas2i.o%,or 35.2 367.4 199.8 567.2 1994 10.0% per year, again, higher 377.9 34.9 202.9 580.8 1995 than the 1988-00-2003 aver391.8 34.0 593.6 201.8 1996 age of 5.5%. 33.2 197.5 396.9 1997 594.5 The U.S. accounted for 419.9 32.0 197.9 617.8 1998 only 14% of the 1988^0-2003 31.4 433.5 198.5 632.1 1999 increase in the NSF/ISI count 196.2 31.0 436.6 632.8 2000 of papers published world30.9 200.9 448.9 649.8 2001 wide, 18% of the 1988-to30.5 641.4 195.8 445.6 2002 2005 increase in the papers 698.7 211.2 487.5 30.2 2003 abstracted by CAS, and 24% NOTE: These data include the social and behavioral sciences and are of the 1988^0-2005 gain in derived from Thomson's citation indexes. SOURCE: National Science the number of papers pubFoundation, Science and Engineering Indicators 2006 lished in ACS journals. WWW.CEN-0NLINE.ORG
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NOVEMBER 27, 2 0 0 6
the period. U.S. papers were up by 63%, little over 232,000, or 50%. from 6,900 to 11,300, and non-U.S. papers Growth in non-U.S. papers TRENDS IN CAS ABSTRACTS by 355%, from 3,900 to 18,000. was 199,000—from 289,000 Foreign sources have long been dominant Of the 18,400 increase in the papers to 488,000—or 69%. THOUSANDS published between 1988 and 2005,13,100 Growth in the number OF ABSTRACTS WORLD U.S. NON-U.S. U.S. % came in the 20 journals already established of U.S. papers was a more 1988 389.7 106.7 283.0 27.4% in 1988 and 5,300 were from the 13 journals modest 33,000, or 19%, from 1989 397.2 110.5 286.7 27.8 established since 1988. 178,000 in 1988 to 211,000 1990 394.9 110.0 284.9 27.8 The 33,000 increase in the number in 2003. From 1991 to 2002, 1991 453.6 132.3 321.4 28.1 of papers published by U.S. institutions there was no sustained 1992 430.3 117.8 312.4 27.4 between 1988 and 2003, according to the growth. Annual totals held 1993 448.7 126.2 322.5 28.1 NSF/ISI data, falls well shy of the gains of at between 194,000 and 1994 542.5 158.2 384.3 29.2 97,000 for Western Europe and 79400 for 203,000 and were at 196,000 1995 563.0 152.2 410.8 27.0 Asian nations. for 2002. The 2003 total moved up to 211,000 for the Western Europe has moved ahead of the 1996 579.1 160.3 418.9 27.7 1997 585.5 151.6 434.0 25.9 biggest annual gain in many U.S. In 2003, it had 241,000 articles, and 1998 559.0 136.6 422.4 24.4 years. the U.S. had 211,000. Compared with the 1999 591.1 141.3 449.8 23.9 19% increase in U.S. papers, particularly NSF points out that there 2000 573.5 136.3 422.4 23.8 large 1988-1:0-2003 gains were posted by is no clear reason for the Spain, 210%; Italy, 120%; the Netherlands, flattening of U.S. R8cD pub2001 606.7 139.3 467.4 23.0 57%; Germany, 51%; and France, 49%. lications in the 1990s and 2002 630.5 150.5 479.9 23.9 2003 For Japan, the 1988^0-2003 increase in 646.9 150.9 496.0 23.2 through 2002. The stagnation 2004 685.8 158.8 527.0 23.2 scientific articles was 74%, and for Austracontrasts with continuing 2005 727.5 168.8 558.7 23.2 lia, it was 60%. increases in both real R8cD The truly spectacular gain was posted by expenditure and the number SOURCE: Chemical Abstracts Service of researchers. The foundation decline, but it is less than the 2.6% decline is undertaking a special study PAPERS PUBLISHED over the previous two years. to find the reasons, such as IN ACS JOURNALS The NSF data in this report are from the changes in publication pracU.S. share has dropped from 64% to 39% 2006 edition of the foundation's biennial tices, behind this prolonged NUMBER Science and Engineering Indicators. They lack of growth. OF PAPERS WORLD U.S. NON-U.S. U.S. % are derived from the papers published in The CAS data indicate a 63.7% 6,926 3,949 10,875 1988 the expanding number of peer-reviewed similar pattern but with a 63.7 7,308 4,165 11,473 1989 journals—4,458 in 1988 and 5,315 in 2003— somewhat muted difference 62.6 7,729 4,622 1990 12,351 tracked by Thomson Scientific's Science between U.S. and non-U.S. 60.9 8,326 5,344 13,670 1991 Citation Index (SCI) and Social Science performance. Between 58.3 8,407 6,025 14,432 1992 Citation Index (SSCI). 1988 and 2005, the world57.8 15,067 8,710 6,357 1993 Journals are assigned to one of 134 fields, wide total of abstracted 54.6 8,600 7,150 1994 15,750 which are in turn grouped into chemistry papers rose from 390,000 51.7 8,555 7,986 16,541 1995 and 11 other major fields. There are eight to 728,000, or by 87%. Nonhard science fields and four social science 49.7 U.S. papers increased from 9,192 9,311 1996 18,503 45.5 8,497 10,194 1997 18,691 fields; the latter group accounted for 13% of 283,000 to 559,000, or by 45.4 8,737 10,517 19,254 1998 the 2003 total. Chemistry is defined along 97%. U.S. papers were up by a 44.7 8,809 10,921 1999 19,730 traditional lines as analytical, applied, gensmaller 58%, from 107,000 to 43.1 9,005 11,910 2000 20,915 eral, inorganic, nuclear, organic, physical, 169,000. and polymer chemistry. The large 169% increase 42.8 9,051 12,087 2001 21,138 CAS's data on the number of abstracted in the number of papers pub9,527 13,534 41.3 2002 23,061 40.2 papers are based on its monitoring of 9,738 14,484 24,222 2003 lished in ACS journals—from 40.2 10,533 15,687 2004 26,220 a somewhat larger number of journals, 10,900 in 1988 to 29,300 in 38.6 11,318 17,984 2005 29,302 about 9,000 in 2005. The data on the pa2005—is partly due to the pers in ACS journals come from a program SOURCE: ACS Journals Publishing Group aggressive expansion of the that has expanded from 19 journals in 1988 ACS journals operation over to 33 in 2005 and so have a substantially higher growth rate than for chemistry itself. According to the NSF/ISI data, the number of scientific papers published worldwide rose from 466,000 in 1988 to 699,000 in 2003. This is a gain of a
No single set of quantitative data gives a definitive fix on what is going on in science and where science is being done.
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NOVEMBER 27, 2006
SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY
what NSF defines as the East Asia 4—China, Singapore, South Korea, and Taiwan— with a boost from a combined total of 7,200 papers in 1988 to 55,300 in 2003. This is a 667% gain in 15 years, or an average of 14.5%
per year. Much of this gain has been in China (from 4,600 papers in 1988 to 29,200 in 2003) and South Korea (from 800 in 1988 to 13,700 in 2003). China's total in 2003 placed it sixth on the world ranking.
The only region with a decline in papers is Eastern Europe and the nations of the former Soviet Union, with a dip of from 41,500 papers in 1988 to 35,100 in 2003. The CAS data show a similar national
ACS JOURNAL ARTICLES
SCIENTIFIC PAPERS BY SOU RCE
Most growth has come in the long-established journals
European Union contributed most to grow/th between 1988 and 2003
NUMBER OF PAPERS
OLDER JOURNALS Accounts of Chemical Research Analytical Chemistry Biochemistry Chemical Research in Toxicology Chemical Reviews
1988
2005
70 627 1,322 60 64
100 1,068 1,666 222 134
139 192
337 1,288
406
1,120
1,013 310
1,178 1,528
J of the American Chemical Society J of Chemical & Engineering Data J of Chemical Information & Modeling J of Medicinal Chemistry J of Organic Chemistry
1,894 165 34
3,390 388 215
385 1417
876 1,605
J of Physical Chemistry Langmuir Macromolecules Organometallics
1,390 250 653 484
4,855 1,788 1,419 849
Energy & Fuels Environmental Science & Technology Industrial & Engineering Chemistry Research Inorganic Chemistry J of Agricultural & Food Chemistry
TOTAL
10375 24,026
JOURNALS NEW SINCE 1988 Bioconjugate Chemistry Biomacromolecules Biotechnology Progress Chemistry of Materials Crystal Growth & Design
206 444 243 975 333
J of Chemical Theory & Computation J of Combinatorial Chemistry J of Natural Products J of Proteome Research Molecular Pharmaceutics
133 132 385 269 57
Nano Letters Organic Letters Organic Process Research & Development TOTAL GRAND TOTAL
492 1,471 136
10375
5,276 29,302
NOTES: Data for 2005 for the Journal of Physical Chemistry includes both A and B editions. The Journal of Chemical Information & Modeling was formerly the Journal of Chemical Information & Computer Sciences. Biotechnology Progress is copublished with the American Institute of Chemical Engineers. SOURCE: ACS Journals Publishing Group
1988--2003 1988
% OF TOTAL
2003
% OF TOTAL
CHANGE
WORLD TOTAL U.S. Non-U.S.
466.4 177.7 288.7
100.0% 38.1 61.9
698.7 211.2 487.5
100.0% 30.2 69.8
232.3 33.5 198.8
EUROPEAN UNION France Germany Italy Netherlands Spain Sweden U.K.
134.6 21.4 29.3 11.2 8.6 5.4 7.6 36.5
28.9 4.6 6.3 2.4 1.8 1.2 1.6 7.8
220.0 32.0 44.3 24.7 13.5 16.8 10.2 48.3
31.5 4.6 6.3 3.5 1.9 2.4 1.5 6.9
85.4 10.6 15.0 13.5 4.9 11.4 2.6 11.8
64 49 51 120 57 210 34 32
9.3
2.0
20.9
3.0
11.6
125
5.3 0.5
1.1 0.1
8.5 6.2
1.2 0.9
3.2 5.7
61 1,127
41.5
8.9
35.1
5.0
-6.4
-16
4.0 31.6
0.9 6.8
6.8 15.8
1.0 2.3
2.8 nm
68 nm
7.2 4.6 0.4 0.8 1.4
1.5 1.0 0.1 0.2 0.3
55.3 29.2 3.1 13.7 9.3
7.9 4.2 0.4 2.0 1.3
48.1 24.6 2.7 13.0 7.9
667 532 661 1,682 556
34.4
7.4
60.1
8.6
25.6
74
10.1 8.9
2.2 1.9
15.8 12.8
2.3 1.8
5.7 3.9
56 44
MIDDLE EAST/ NORTH AFRICA
7.9
1.7
13.5
1.9
5.6
71
SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA South Africa
4.5
1.0
4.2
0.6
-0.3
-7
2.5
0.5
2.4
0.3
-0.2
-4
CENTRAL/SOUTH AMERICA Argentina Brazil
5.6
1.2
18.9
2.7
13.1
233
1.4 1.8
0.3 0.4
3.1 8.7
0.4 1.2
1.7 6.9
116 392
AUSTRALIA
9.9
2.1
15.8
2.3
5.9
60
21.4
4.6
24.8
3.1
3.4
16
THOUSANDS OF PAPERS
OTHER WESTERN EUROPE Switzerland Turkey EASTERN EUROPE/ FORMER U.S.S.R. BLOC Poland U.S.S.R./Russia EAST ASIA 4 China Singapore South Korea Taiwan JAPAN OTHER ASIA India
CANADA
nm = not meaningful. SOURCE: National Science Foundation, Science and Engineering Indicators 2006
WWW.CEN-0NLINE.ORG
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NOVEMBER 27, 2 0 0 6
% CHANGE
50% 19 69
profile of growth rates. Increases in the number of abstracted papers between 1988 and 2005 were 668% for South Korea, 647% for China, 179% for Spain, 71% for Germany, 65% for the Netherlands, 58% for the U.S., and 46% for France. China's 102,000 abstracts in 2005 placed it second on the world list behind the U.S. at 169,000. The data for ACS's journals program indicate a 1983-7,0-2005 increase in papers published of 228%, from 8,900 to 29,300, with U.S. papers up by 88%, from 6,000 to 11,300, and non-U.S. papers up by 517%, from 2,900 to 18,000.
Data on Asian nations are scanty for 1983, when they produced relatively few papers. But the 1,776 papers from China published in 2005 were enough to place China third, behind Japan at 2,510, and the U.S. at 11,318. An analysis by NSF gives a guide to the scientific productivity of nations. Based on the most recent data available (from within the 2000^0-2003 range) for each country, it is expressed as the number of science and engineering articles published per year per million inhabitants. Of 157 nations ranked, the U.S. ranks 12th at 707 papers per million. The top six are smaller nations, with Sweden at 1,137; Switzerland, 1,120; Israel, PAPERS ABSTRACTED BY CAS, 1,018; Finland, 974; BY SOURCE Denmark, 933; and the Since 1988, China's share has quadrupled Netherlands at 800. THOUSANDS The U.K., at 796, ranks OF PAPERS 1988 % OF TOTAL 2005 % OF TOTAL the highest among WORLD TOTAL 3897 100.0% 72il 100.0% larger nations at sevU.S. 106.7 274 '^mmm.: 23.2 Non-U.S. enth. The worldwide 283.0 72.6 "mmm 76.8 EUROPEAN UNION average is 108 papers France 16.8 4.3 ^mmm: 3.4 per million. Germany 29.2 75 ^mmm. 6.9 The NSF/ISI data Italy 2.4 9.3 $M3S& 2.9 indicate that 11.9% of Netherlands 5.7 1.5 li^iiit 1.3 the scientific papers Spain 5.4 1.4 m^mm^m. 2.1 Sweden published worldwide 4.7 1.2 wa:-mm: 1.1 U.K. 21.8 5.6 in 2003 were in chemWMBM 4.2 OTHER WESTERN EUROPE istry. This is little Switzerland 4.1 1.1 m^Wm: 1.1 changed from 12.1% in Turkey 0.6 0.2 W:-mw 0.8 1996. The biggest field EASTERN EUROPE/FORMER U.S.S.R. BLOC : in 2003 was clinical Bulgaria 0.4 1.7 :- :l»IIi 0.2 medicine, with 27.9% Czechoslovakia 4.4 •V;^»:K: 0.5 1.1 of the papers; followed Poland 6.8 1.7 •^mmm 1.6 : Russia by physics, with 13.9%; .S8feS 3.1 •^Hife&V — U.S.S.R. 50.6 13.0 biomedical research, EAST ASIA 4 with 13.7%; and then China 137 3.5 :iiiii;i;. 14.1 chemistry. Singapore 0.2 0.1 :iriiii;: 0.4 Chemistry's share South Korea 2.2 0.6 llllll: 2.3 of scientific papers Taiwan 0.4 1.4 .: - l i i i i 1.0 JAPAN 44.6 11.5 varies widely by natillll 11.2 OTHERASIA tion. In 2003, chemisIndia 12.0 3.1 •vviiiii 2.7 try claimed 26.6% of MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA the papers from India, 07 Egypt 0.2 i: :t l i i l i 0.4 25.5% of those from Israel 2.4 0.6 lillflf 0.6 Eastern Europe and Turkey 0.6 0.2 *l i i i i 0.8 the nations of the forSUB-SAHARAN AFRICA South Africa 1.3 0.3 mmim 0.2 mer Soviet Union, and CENTRAL/SOUTH AMERICA 20.2% of papers from Argentina 1.1 0.3 tmmm 0.4 the East Asia 4. The Brazil 0.4 1.5 :;:i§tlt© 1.3 U.S. was at the other Mexico 07 0.2 ^liiiil 0.5 end of this spectrum, AUSTRALIA 5.0 1.3 iv i: l l l l l 1.3 with 7.5% of its papers CANADA 12.1 3.1 " wm§: 2.5 in chemistry. Canada NOTES: East Asia 4 consists of China, Singapore, South Korea, and Taiwan. came in at 7.3% and — = data not available. SOURCE: Chemical Abstracts Service Australia at 8.0%. WWW.CEN-0NLINE.ORG
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NOVEMBER 27, 2006
NSFS TOP 10 PRODUCERS France replaced the Soviet Union in the top five RANK
NATION
THOUSANDS OF PAPERS
1988 1 2 3 4 5 6 6 8 9 10
U.S. U.K. Japan Soviet Union Germany France Canada Australia India Netherlands
1777 36.5 34.4 31.6 29.3 21.4 21.4 9.9 8.9 8.6
2003 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 10
U.S. Japan U.K. Germany France China Canada India Spain Russia Australia
211.2 60.1 48.3 44.3 32.0 29.2 24.8 24.7 16.8 15.8 15.8
SOURCE: National Science Foundation, Science and Engineering Indicators 2006
TOP 10 SOURCES OF CAS ABSTRACTS China moves to second, behind U.S.; Japan is third RANK
NATION
THOUSANDS OF PAPERS
1988 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
U.S. U.S.S.R. Japan Germany U.K. France China Canada India Italy
106.7 50.6 44.6 29.2 21.8 16.8 13.7 12.1 12.0 9.3
2005 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
U.S. China Japan Germany U.K. France Russia Italy India C&n&da
168.8 102.3 81.4 49.9 30.2 24.6 22.4 21.3 19.6 18.1
SOURCE: Chemical Abstracts Service
SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY
ACS JOURNAL PAPER!I BY SOURCE Non-U.S. papers made up 74% of gro wth from 1983 to 2005 1983-2005 NUMBER OF PAPERS
TOTAL U.S. Non-U.S. WESTERN EUROPE Belgium Denmark France Germany Italy Netherlands Spain Sweden Switzerland U.K. EASTERN EUROPE Czechoslovakia Poland Russia ASIA China Hong Kong India Japan Singapore South Korea Taiwan MIDDLE EAST Israel Turkey LATIN/CENTRAL AMERICA Argentina Brazil Mexico OTHER Australia Canada New Zealand
1983
2005
8,946 6,033 2,913
29,302 11,318 17,984
20,356 5,285 15,071
45 24 264 231 175 107 39 68 88 200
263 215 1,124 1,561 964 481 1.136 412 412 1,224
218 191 860 1,330 789 374 1,097 344 324 1,024
484 795 326 576 451 350 2,813 506 368 512
8 14
72 208 118
64 194
800 1,386
77 666
89
16 11
117 498
-
CHANGE
1,776 102 587 2,510 204 568 369
/o CHANGE
228% 88 517
-
-
— —
— —
510 1,844
662 277
— — -
— — -
286 58
197
221
-
-
93 154 120
77 143
-
-
406 1.230 69
289 732
247 147
-
-
481 1,300
—• = data not available. SOURCE: ACS Journals Publishing Group
CITATIONS IN HIGH-IMPACT JOURNALS U.S. dominance is still strong but declining PERCENTAGE OF CITATIONS
Top 1 % cited journals 1992 2003 Top 5% cited journals 1992 2003 Top 10% cited journals 1992 2003 All cited journals 1992 2003
U.S.
WESTERN EUROPE
JAPAN
EAST ASIA 4
OTHER
68.5% 59.3
19.9% 25.7
3.0% 4.6
0.1% 0.8
8.5% 9.6
61.9 49.1
22.4 30.8
4.8 6.7
0.4 1.8
10.5 11.7
55.9 43.7
25.4 32.6
6.0 7.7
0.7 2.8
12.0 13.2
37.8 31.1
29.1 32.8
7.4 8.8
1.8 5.9
23.9 21.4
NOTE: Western Europe is defined as the 15 nations that made up the European Union until 2000. East Asia 4 consists of China, Singapore, South Korea, and Taiwan. SOURCE: National Science Foundation, Science and Engineering Indicators 2006
WWW.CEN-0NLINE.ORG
^ Q
SCIENTIFIC PAPERS BY FIELD, 198H TO 2003 By NSF's count, U.S. share declined in all fields except mathematics 1988-2003 THOUSANDS OF PAPERS
1988
BIOLOGY 35.0 World 12.9 U.S. 22.1 Non-U.S. 37% % U.S. BIOMEDICAL RESEARCH 70.9 World 27.5 U.S. 43.4 Non-U.S. 39% % U.S. CHEMISTRY 57.4 World 13.2 U.S. 44.2 Non-U.S. 23% % U.S. CLINICAL MEDICINE 136.7 World 55.0 U.S. 81.7 Non-U.S. 41% % U.S. EARTH/SPACE SCIENCES 19.1 . World 8.1 U.S. 11.0 Non-U.S. 42% % U.S. ENGINEERING/TECHNOLOGY 31.3 World 11.8 U.S. 19.5 Non-U.S. 42% % U.S. MATHEMATICS 9.8 World 3.9 U.S. 5.9 Non-U.S. 40% % U.S. PHYSICS 62.0 World 18.0 U.S. 44.0 Non-U.S. 29% % U.S. TOTAL 422.2 World 150.4 U.S. 271.8 Non-U.S. 36% % U.S.
2003
CHANGE
% CHANGE
49.6 13.9 35.7 28%
14.6 1.0 13.6
42% 8 62
95.7 34.4 61.3 36%
24.8 6.9 17.9
35 25 41
83.1 15.8 67.3 19%
25.7 2.6 23.1
45 20 52
194.9 65.9 129 34%
58.2 10.9 47.3
43 20 58
38.4 12.5 25.9 33%
19.3 4.4 14.9
101 54 135
62.9 14.8 48.1 24%
31.6 3.0 28.6
101 25 145
15.4 7.8 7.6 51%
5.6 3.9 1.7
57 100 29
97.2 18.6 78.6 19%
35.2 0.6 34.6
57 3 79
637.2 183.7 453.5 28%
215.0 33.3 181.7
51 17 67
HOW TO READ THE TABLE: In 1988, 35,000 biology articles were published worldwide. Of these, 12,900, or 37%, were from U.S. institutions. SOURCE: National Science Foundation, Science and Engineering Indicators 2006
Between 1988 and 2003, the number of U.S. chemical papers rose by 2,600, from 13,200 to 15,800, while the number of nonU.S. chemistry papers grew by 23,100, from 44,200 to 67,300. This means that the U.S. contributed only 11% of the overall 15year gain. From 1988 to 2003, the U.S.'s share of papers fell in seven of the eight hard sciences. The exception was mathematics. The bare-bone statistics on the number of articles published or abstracted do not address the issue of the caliber of the NOVEMBER 27, 2 0 0 6
2003 SCIENTIFIC ARTICLES BY FIELD One out of 13 U.S. scientific papers is in chemistry THOUSANDS OF PAPERS
WORLDWIDE
%0F TOTAL
194.9 97.1 95.7 83.2 62.9 49.6 38.4 15.4
279% 13.9 13.7 11.9 9.0 7.1 5.5 2.2
HARD SCIENCES Clinical medicine Physics Biomedical research Chemistry Engineering/technology Biology Earth/space sciences Mathematics OTHER SCIENCES Social sciences Psychology Professional fields Health sciences
21.7 15.4 14.7 9.8
TOTAL
3.1 2.2 2.1 1.4
698.7
100.0%
U.S.
65.9 18.6 34.4 15.9 14.8 14.0 12.5 7.8
9.7 3.8 8.7 5.1 211.2
%OF TOTAL
31.2% 8.8 16.3 7.5 70 6.6 5.9 3.7
4.6 1.8 4.1 2.4 100.0%
SOURCE: National Science Foundation, Science and Engineering Indicators 2006
papers. However, an NSF/ISI analysis indicates that the U.S. holds a strong, if gradually declining, advantage. The analysis is based on a ranking of the journals covered by the two citation
TOP 10 SOURCES OF PAPERS IN ACS JOURNALS U.S. leads, Japan retains second, and China climbs to third place RANK
NATION
NUMBER OF PAPERS
1983 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
U.S. Japan Canada France Germany U.K. Italy Australia Netherlands Israel
6,033 666 498 264 231 200 175 117 107 89
2005 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
U.S. Japan China Germany Canada U.K. Spain France Italy India
11,318 2,510 1,776 1,561 1,230 1,224 1,136 1,124 964 587
SOURCE: ACS Journals Publishing Group
indexes (SGI and SSGI) according to the average number ofcitationstothe articles published in them. In 2003,59.3% of the papers in the top 1% of journals ranked this way were from the U.S. Second were the 15 nations that made up the European Union in 1999 (referred to as EU-15) with a total of 25.7%. Japan had 4.6%, and East Asia 4 had 0.8%. In 1992, these shares had been 68.5%, 19.9%, 3.0%, and 0.1%,
respectively. The pattern is similar for the top 10% ofjournals. The U.S.'s share dropped from 55.9% in 1992 to 43.7% in 2003, while the EU-15's rose from 25.4% to 32.6%. Japan also advanced, from 6.0% to 7.7%, as did East Asia 4, from 0.7% to 2.8%. Some journal editors have expressed concern about the uneven quality of the rising tide of articles submitted to their publications from China and other Asian sources (C8tEN, Sept. 18, page 35). The fact remains, however,
PROPORTION OF CHEMISTRY ARTICLES Chemistry is a smaller part of science in U.S., Canada, than it is elsewhere CHEMISTRY PAPERS AS % OF ALL S&E PAPERS REGION
1996
2003
Worldwide U.S. European Union Japan East Asia 4 Eastern Europe/former U.S.S.R. Near East/North Africa Central/South America Australia Canada India
12.1% 7.5 12.4 15.6 19.8 26.3
11.9% 7.5 11.1 14.7 20.2 25.5
137 12.7 8.7 8.0 26.8
16.3 12.5 8.0 73 26.6
NOTE: East Asia 4 consists of China, Singapore, South Korea, and Taiwan. S&E = science and engineering. SOURCE: National Science Foundation, Science and Engineering Indicators 2006
WWW.CEN-0NLINE.ORG
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NOVEMBER 27, 2 0 0 6
SCIENTIFIC PAPERS PER CAPITA European nations dominate the top 25 list
RANK
TOP 25 1 2 3 4 5
NATION
ARTICLES PER MILLION INHABITANTS PER YEAR
Sweden Switzerland Israel Finland Denmark
1,137 1,120 1,018 974 933
6 7 8 9 10
Netherlands U.K. Australia Canada New Zealand
800 796 773 748 745
11 12 13 14 15
Norway U.S. Singapore Iceland Belgium
715 707 676 672 599
16 17 18 19 20
Austria Germany France Taiwan Slovenia
574 525 524 502 456
21 22 23 24 25
Japan Ireland Italy Spain Greece
453 435 401 394 329
WORLDWIDE
108
SELECTED OTHERS Russia 35 Kuwait 36 Chile 39 Argentina 40 Jordan 48
110 107 85 83 48
49 50 59 67 79
United Arab Emirates Brazil Egypt China India
48 45 24 19 11
NOTE: Number of science and engineering papers in the most recent year between 2000 and 2003 for which data are available. SOURCE: National Science Foundation, Science and Engineering Indicators 2006
that the rapidly growing number of articles from Asia and other nontraditional sources that are counted, abstracted, or published by ISI, CAS, or the ACS journals meet the criteria established by these entities. •
