50,000 kw. generator tiiere and h a s a second unit of the same size about half completed. It will need an additional 50,000 to 60,000 kw. b y 1962. (2) It must barge fuel oil for the existing steam plant from the San F r a n cisco Bay Area. Hence, fuel costs are moderately high. (3) T h e plant operates below capacity because much of the d e m a n d is met by hydroelectric power. But this must b e brought in over t w o lines, each about 115 miles long, through the rugged a n d inaccessible Trinity Alps. Construction and maintenance costs a r e high. So, the company must have adequate steam power to ensure uninterrupted service. The n e w atomic plant, scheduled for completion in mid-1962, will produce power at an estimated cost of 8.7 mills or less per kw.-hr. with the first core. W h e n t h e second core has t o b e installed—some time between 3 1 / 2 a n d 4l/4 years later—the then lower costs of fuel fabrication and assembly are expected to reduce cost to 8.1 mills. T h e third important factor—and a vital one—is t h e experience Bechtel Corp. (contractor for the job) has had in building the Vallecitos plant and the Dresden plant near Chicago. With this experience under its belt, Bechtel has agreed to design and build the plant on a turn key, fixed price basis. So there is no uncertainty in PG&E estimates of capital investment. T h e plant will cost about $20 million (exclusive of land, since this is already owned b y the company), compared with an estimated $11 million for a conventionally fueled steam plant. But fuel costs, however, will be about halved in the atomic plant. Plant design will closely follow that of the Vallecitos unit. T h e reactor will be of the boiling water type, will use 29r enriched uranium oxide fuel. It will operate a t 1000 p.s.i. and about 545° F . Steam flow will be single cycle with natural circulation. While work on t h e Humboldt Bay plant is progressing, PG&E is still exploring design improvements a n d attempting to improve t h e economics of a proposed 200,000-kw. installation for t h e San Francisco Bay Area. But here, problems are tougher. With the lower fuel oil cost near San Francisco and the m u c h larger capacity justified in this location, t h e atomic plârâ would have to generate p o w e r a t ; 6.5 .'mills per kw.-hr. to make economic sense. T h u s , although the economic barrier to atomic power has been broken a t one spot, it hasn't been removed entirely. 24
C&EN
MARCH
3,
1958
More People Means More Paper Needed Apparent Paper Consumption Millions of Tons
1937
1950
1956
Population, Millions*
1960
1965
H o p e Runs High for Paper Exports Western Hemisphere and European Common Market countries stand out as future growth areas τ HE FUTURE looks bright for American But with the increased volume, 1957's p u l p , paper, and allied products on for product value should t o p t h e $150 mil eign m a r k e t s And Western H e m i lion total for 1956. s p h e r e countries and the E u r o p e a n Canada presents t h e largest market C o m m o n Market area shape u p a s key for American paper exports. Its grow potential growth regions. So said ing need for diversified types of paper speakers at t h e American P a p e r a n d and board to meet industrial and con P u l p Association's 81st annual meeting s u m e r demands c a u s e d import require in N e w York. m e n t s to soar 500% over the past 20 By 1965, Western Hemisphere coun years. T h e Canadian market offers a tries will raise annual paper a n d board projected jump of 100,000 tons yearly consumption by 2 million tons over through 1965, Lagerloef points out in 1956; imports will account for p e r h a p s his report covering 2 4 Western Hem a third of the increase. And U. S. im isphere countries over a 20-year period. ports should account for at least 350,> E u r o p e a n Prospects. The market 000 tons of the increase (about a 40,- expansion inherent i n the European 000 ton-a-year jump), predicts Eric G. Common Market appears geared to Lagerloef, APPA export committee sec benefit t h e pulp and paper industry, retary. Lagerloef bases this on t h e says Patton D. Allen, director of the U. S. p a p e r and board industry's ability Bureau of Foreign Commerce's Euro to maintain 5 0 % of t h e Western Hemi p e a n division. This expanded market sphere market. project should offer enlarged oppor A 2 0 % population hike forecast for tunities for U . S. manufacturers, too, he these countries over this period will told APPA export committee members. But with this increasing market will bring increased pressures of industrial expansion and increased imports, says c o m e strong competition from Euro And shipping Lagerloef. And marked trends toward p e a n manufacturers. upgrading living standards in many costs, plus tariff barriers, will be h a r d to "south of the border" countries will overcome as our manufacturing advan bring with them a rising paper d e m a n d tages diminish, h e warns. T h e big wage differentials, probably which can only be met, in part, b y local our greatest handicap, will shrink as production. More than 70% of the U. S. world the market grows. But w e must bring trade in paper, paperboard, a n d paper down t h e level of the tariffs applied t o products funneled into the Western our exports. This can come about Hemisphere market in 1957, h e esti through reciprocal concessions with mates. This duplicates the 1956 mark. Common Market countries.
