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Population and Climate Change Brian C. O’Neill, F. Landis MacKellar, and Wolfgang Lutz Cambridge University Press New York, NY February 2001, 288 pp., $49.95 ISBN: 0-521-66242-7 The prospect of a world temperature rise due to human actions has led to a vigorous debate about the likely extent of future global warming, the seriousness of potential adverse consequences, and the feasibility and desirability of taking action. Concern about projected negative impacts, such as a sea level rise, an increase in extreme weather events, ecosystem disruption, and agricultural damage, has produced growing international consensus on the desirability of strong efforts to halt the ongoing rise in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. By explicitly examining the relationship between population and climate change, this timely volume fills an important gap in the debate. Existing studies address the science of climate change and costs and benefits of options for addressing the projected warming, but a shortcoming of this literature is that it largely ignores the role of population growth. For example, the 1996 Second Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change devotes only a few pages to population growth issues. The reasons for this neglect are not clear but may include a desire to avoid contentious © 2001 American Chemical Society
issues surrounding population policies. The initial chapters provide concise overviews of the climate outlook, future demographic trends, and the state of research on population–development–environment interactions. These are followed by sections on the effect of population growth on climate change and on the potential impacts of climate change on agriculture, health, and environmental security. A final essay examines the rationale for climate and population policies in their own right, and for population policies as part of global climate change strategy. One unsurprising conclusion from this analysis is that the projected world population increase—from 6 billion today to 10 billion in 2100 (mostly in Africa, Asia, and Latin America)—will contribute substantially to the expected future rise in GHG emissions. The most important finding of the author’s new research is that policies to encourage slower population growth can significantly reduce GHG emissions in the long run and increase the ability of societies to adapt to climate change impacts. Population policies such as voluntary family planning programs and investments in girls’ education are win−win strategies, because by enhancing the welfare of individuals, families, and societies, they are desirable in their own right and, in general, reduce the adverse impact of population growth on climate and environment. Population issues will probably become more prominent in future debates on global warming. For example, the Kyoto Protocol, negotiated in 1998 by more than 150 governments, sets caps on absolute emissions of industrialized countries without reference to population trends. This means that it will be much easier to stay under these caps for countries with declining populations (e.g., Germany) than for countries with growing populations (e.g., the United States). How this will be resolved is not clear, but it is likely to require further negotiation.
Although the topics covered are sometimes quite technical, the authors have written a highly accessible, balanced, and informative volume. It should appeal to a wide audience, including researchers, policy makers, and students in the fields of environmental science, climate change, demography and economics. Reviewed by John Bongaarts, Population Council, New York. E-mail:
[email protected] Books Analytical Methods for Environmental Monitoring, R. Ahmad, M. Cartwright, F. Taylor, Eds. (Prentice Hall, 2001, 306 pp., $56.64). This reference for researchers and postgraduate students covers current methods for detecting and monitoring pollution, including biosensors and remote sensing. Chemical Risk Analysis: A Practical Handbook, B. Martel (Taylor & Francis Publishing, Inc., 2000, 494 pp., $130). This text for researchers and students includes extensive theoretical discussions, case studies designed to test the various hazards criteria in current use, an extensive list of descriptions of dangerous reactions, and dangerous property tables. Climate Change: A Multidisciplinary Approach, W. J. Burroughs (Cambridge University Press, 2001, 290 pp., $85.00). This well-illustrated undergraduate text takes a comprehensive, interdisciplinary look at climate change and discusses measurement and prediction. Communities and the Environment: Ethnicity, Gender, and the State in Community-Based Conservation, A. Agrawal, C. C. Gibson, Eds. (Rutgers University Press, 2001, 232 pp.,
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$23.00). The contributors examine the roles communities play in the creation and management of environmental policy and decision making, covering natural resources in South Asian, African, and North American countries. Multimedia Environmental Models: The Fugacity Approach, D. Mackay (CRC Press, 2001 (Second Edition), 256 pp., $99.95). This newly revised text provides examples of how chemicals behave in the environment and includes updated material on bioaccumulative and toxic chemicals, Webbased models, and instructive case studies. Where Vultures Feast: Shell, Human Rights, and Oil in the Niger Delta, I. Okonta, O. Douglas (Sierra Club Books, 2001, 288 pp., $24.00). The authors present evidence that indicates that Royal Dutch Shell and the Nigerian government are responsible for practices that have turned the Niger Delta into one of the world’s most endangered ecosystems. Working Through Environmental Conflict: The Collaborative Learning Approach, S. E. Daniels, G. B. Walker (Greenwood Press, 2001, 328 pp., $62.50). The authors examine collaboration in environmental and natural resource policy making and conflict management and present a teaching tool called collaborative learning.
Web Sites Earthtrends (http://earthtrends.wri. org) is the World Resources Institute’s new (launched in June) online environmental information portal. Users can access a searchable database with more than 400 variables for 210 countries spanning recent decades. Earthtrends information is grouped in 10 topic areas, including coastal and marine ecosystems, health and human well-being, climate and atmosphere, energy, biodiversity and protected areas, and environmental governance. The data are provided by international agencies and other sources, such as the U.S. Geological Survey, the U.N. Environment Programme, and the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development. 380 A
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The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s (www.epa.gov/epahome/ whatsnew.htm) “What’s New?” page, includes the “Supplementary Guidance for Conducting Health Risk Assessment of Chemical Mixtures”, which provides additional procedures for the original guidelines. Also available online are data from the 2000 Emissions Scorecard & Compliance Report, and a National Research Council Study on water and waste management. Users can also link to other EPA resources, including research programs such as the Endocrine Disrupter Research Initiative and the National Center for Environmental Assessment. The Worldwatch Institute (www. worldwatch.org) site is frequently updated and includes news highlights, issue alerts, and recent papers, such as “City Limits: Putting the Brakes on Sprawl” and the recently released Vital Signs 2001, excerpted online. The excerpts include a PowerPoint presentation and summaries, such as “AllYou-Can Eat Economy is Making the World Sick”, a worldwide perspective on consumption with data on food, energy and transport, health, and other important indicators. Users can also link to Web resources such as topics covered in the State of the World 2000. The topics are organized for the Web in useful chapters, such as “Anticipating Environmental ‘Surprise’”, “Sizing Up Micropower”, and “Recovering the Paper Landscape”. Environmental Issues http:// environment.about.com/newsissues/ environment/cs/waterquality) is a guide to hundreds of sites in several topics, including renewable energy, jobs, endangered species, climate change, biodiversity, mining, whales, acid rain, forestry, and population. Under the heading water quality, the site links to national, regional, and international government and nongovernment organizations and related sites. The link to the U.N. Global Environment Monitoring System/WATER Programme, for instance, presents research reports and data from several participating nations. The site links to a UNEP/GEMS Water Programme Annotated Digital Atlas of Global Water Quality, as well as several studies, including a report on persistent organochlorine pollutants, and water quality management in various countries.
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