BUSINESS _Li_
lisisliffi BY WILLIAM J. STORCK
Thefirstof the baby boomers are going to hit the traditional retirement age of 65 in justfiveyears. For some time after that they will be leaving the workforce in increasing numbers, creating a huge demand load. In fact, the ACS survey shows that 72% of the respondents were born prior to 1966. N HIS STATE OF THE UNION ADDRESS IN the country will need 280,000 life scien- So most were born during or before the peJanuary, President George W. Bush, as tists by 2014, a 48,000 increase over 2004, riod of amazing fecundity, which officially every U.S. chemist undoubtedly knows and 281,000 physical scientists, or 31,000 ended in 1964. by now, proposed an Advanced Energy more than 10 years earlier. Factoring in the This is where the "perhaps too late" Initiative that would put more research replacement of scientists retiring or leaving comes in. There has to be a lag time bemoney into alternative energy sources such their jobs for other reasons, BLS estimates tween announcing the President's educaas solar and wind, zero-emissions coal-fired that the U.S. will need 103,000 new life sci- tion program and the time it may be fully power plants, safe nuclear plants, and new entists and new 94,000 physical scientists implemented. You can't train 70,000 teachways of powering motor vehicles. by 2014. The government estimates that the ers overnight. Then there is a further lag Bush also proposed a program to train number of chemists must increase by just between the time they begin to have some 70,000 high school teachers to bolster ad- 6,000 during the 10-year period to 88,000, influence on students and the time the stuvanced placement courses in mathematics but combined with net replacements, 33,000 dents receive their postsecondary degrees. and science and to "bring 30,000 math and new chemists will be needed. And this does NSB notes that students who take adscience professionals to teach in classrooms not include biochemists. vanced degrees in science make choices as and give early help to students who struggle Can this demand befilled?Thomas early as middle school as to what math and with math, so they have a better chance at L. Friedman, in his best-selling book "The science path they are going to pursue; thus, good high-wage jobs." World Is Flat," writes, "The generation of there can be a lag of 10-20 years between the time such students make their decisions It is my fervent desire that laboratories and the time they enter the workforce. Add in academia, government, and companies AGING to that the time to gear up the President's across the country see some hope in the Civilian labor force gets older programs and there's a big gap between the President's proposals. Also, after 29 years beginning retirement age for baby boomers of covering the industry, I believe that the %, 55 years and older and when any significant increase occurs in people who say that basic research is un20 the number of graduating scientists. derfunded and that not enough emphasis 15 Peter F. Drucker, the fabled manageis put on science education in middle and 10 ment consultant, recognized early on that high schools are right. the labor force would be whipsawed by the But I have to wonder if the President's combination of the baby boom with a subproposals, especially those dealing with sequent decline in birth rates. In his 1980 education, are a case of, if not too little, then a 1980 1990 2000 2003 2004 2112 book "Management Challenges for the 21st perhaps too late. NOTE: Civilians employed as percentage of civilian Century," Drucker writes, "There is nothIn a companion paper to its "Science & noninstitutionalized population, a Projection. SOURCE: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Statistical ing—except unprecedentedly massive imEngineering Indicators 2004," which notes Abstract of the United States: 2006 migration—that can prevent a sharp drop in data trends in science and engineering, the the labor force of traditional age (i.e., below National Science Board (NSB) says: "If the trends identified in Indicators 2004 con- scientists and engineers who were motivated 60 or 65) in the developed world—in the tinue undeterred, three things will happen. to go into science by the threat of Sputnik in United States after 2025 or so, in the rest 1957 and the inspiration of JFK are reach- of the developed world much later." The number of jobs in the U.S. economy Friedman, in his book, however, is not so that require science and engineering will ing their retirement years and are not being continue to grow; the number of U.S. citi- replaced in the numbers that they must be if sanguine about immigration as a solution. zens prepared for those jobs will, at best, an advanced economy like the United States He writes, 25 years after Drucker: "The simultaneous flattening and wiring of the be level; and the availability of people from is to remain at the head of the pack." C&EN reported last year in its Salary world have made it easier for foreigners to other countries who have science and engineering training will decline, either because & Employment Survey (C&EN, Aug. 1, innovate without having to emigrate. They of limits imposed by U.S. security restric- 2005, page 41) that the median age of the can now do world-class work for world-class tions or because of intense global competi- more than 35,000 chemists responding to companies at very decent wages without the annual ACS census in 2005 was 47.0 ever having to leave home." tion for people with those skills." My opinion? I'm all for education. I'm This is a real concern. In "Employment years. This is well ahead of the 41.3 years Outlook: 2004-24," published in the No- in 1990 and even the 44.7 years in 2000. all for immigration. I'm all for whatever it vember 2005 issue ofMonthly Labor Review, The trend is clear: The chemical cohort is takes to keep the chemical enterprise in the U.S. going. the Bureau ofLabor Statistics (BLS) predicts aging rapidly.
POPULATING THE LAB
Demographics may get in the way of ensuring a strong chemistry contingent in the next 15 years
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Views expressed on this page are those of the author and not necessarily those of ACS. 46
C & E N / MARCH 6, 2006
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