International Last year was a harbinger of things to come. Imports of most major ethylene derivatives increased dramatJapanese petrochemical leaders need exports as a whole also went down ically. Polyethylene imports, for inno additional reminders of how last year, shipments to Japan in- stance, were up 38%; imports of badly the industry has slipped in its creased almost 8% to $2.5 billion. The polyvinyl chloride and ethylene competitive struggle against foreign U.S., in fact, accounted for 37% of all glycol were up about 55%. Vinyl chloride imports rose 88%, and those counterparts with access to less ex- Japanese chemical imports. pensive feedstock. But they got one Ethylene production in Japan was of ethylene dichloride doubled. nonetheless in the form of 1982 trade 4.4 million metric tons in 1978 and a Imports of chlorinated solvents statistics. record 4.8 million metric tons in and of methanol also had a major Last year, Japan suffered a chemi- 1979. Since then, output has declined impact on their respective Japanese cal trade deficit of $550 million—the steadily, reaching only 3.59 million markets last year. Imported methafirst red ink in chemical trade since metric tons last year. That's only 58% nol, in particular, figures to play an even greater role in the future. the country became a major factor on of nameplate capacity. the world petrochemical scene. And Next month, Saudi Methanol Co. A big part of the story behind that it indicates just how far and how fast record can be told with trade statis- plans to bring its huge, 600,000 metJapan's chemical fortunes have fallen tics. In 1978, Japan exported 793,000 ric-ton-per-year methanol plant on since 1975, when it chalked up a metric tons of ethylene derivatives stream in Saudi Arabia. Several Japrecord $1.8 billion surplus in chem- (in terms of ethylene equivalents) anese producers, led by Mitsubishi ical trade. and imported only 113,000 metric Gas Chemical, have an interest in Japan's petrochemical industry has tons. That gave a hefty export surplus that company. Half of the plant's output will be marketed in Japan. had to shoulder the uncomfortable of 680,000 metric tons. burden of exceptionally high feedBy 1981, that export surplus had Anticipating this, Nishi Nihon stock costs since the first oil crisis of dwindled to 171,000 metric tons. Last Methanol Co. will stop producing 1973. Despite this, chemical exports year, according to best estimates, ex- methanol in Japan next month. had been rising steadily until last ports of ethylene derivatives These petrochemical import trends year. In 1982, chemical exports plunged to about 400,000 metric tons, may lead to an unusual development dropped 7.9% to $6.3 billion. Weak but imports rose to more than 380,000 in Japan. Until recently, when Japamarkets in a worldwide recession metric tons. "The petrochemical in- nese cotton spinners started a and the high cost of Japan's naphtha dustry," says one industry leader, dumping complaint against Korean feedstock combined to do the trick. "can no longer be considered an ex- cotton yarn, there had never been a dumping action in Japan. Now, proMeanwhile, chemical imports port industry." It can, however, be considered an ducers of ethylene glycol and, more continued to rise. Last year, they increased another 5.6% to $6.85 bil- import industry regardless of how recently acrylonitrile, are considdistasteful that may seem to its lead- ering a similar move. Some observers lion. Much of last year's increase, as it ers. Petrochemical imports are ex- consider their action a bluff. But, if has been in recent years, can be pected to top exports this year and, they go through with it, it will be a traced to higher imports of ethyl- by 1990, about 900,000 metric tons of new experience for Japan, which is ene-based petrochemicals, particu- ethylene derivatives (as ethylene accustomed to dumping complaints larly from the U.S. and Canada. For equivalents) could be imported into against it, but not in it. instance, although U.S. chemical Japan. Earl Anderson, New York
Japanese chemical trade in red last year
Japan's chemical exports dropped last year... Exports,3 $ billions
.. .whereas imports rose.
.. .with more than one third of them from the U.S.
Imports,3 $ billions
Imports from U.S.,b $ billions
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1970 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82c 1970 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82c 1970 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 a Figures from Ministry of International Trade & Industry, b Figures from Bureau of the Census, c Estimate based on 11-month data.
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March 28, 1983 C&EN
