VoL
INDUSTRIAL AND ENGINEERING CHEMISTRY
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tion. Thelitentureonthe~ubjectisvoluminouaindeed. F’rincipal wntributiona thereto are the Federal Bureau of Mines. Fedmal Qeologicrd Survey, state geological auweys, and sts& dividons dealing with commerce and industry. In addition, many individual articles appear from t h e to time in the technical presa. A g w d bibliography or list of references is wnaidered to be outaide the soope of this paper. Reference to the c M e d catalog of any large technical library should provide a person int%wtedin further detail with additional material. For the future, it can be mid that the actual p m n c e of adoqnate supplien of the more baaic mineral 1 ~ 0 ~ 1 1 xin8the ground haa been proved. Whether t h w not yet developed ever will be
U, No. 3
d e p d s on wnomic wnditions and possible further dmelop ment of technolow - in the induStriea wncerned.
ACIWOWLEDGMENT Information for thin paper was gathered from ~ ~ 1 1available x 8 to the Bureau of Mined and prepared for the authors initially by a number of stafi membern as followa: bituminous coal, James J. Dowd; anthracite, John D. Cooner, Sr.; petroleum and natural gas, Barn 8. Taylor; and metallic and nonmetallic mineral., Frederick D. Wright. Rmcwmn for d e r 8spt.rnb.r 16. 1962.
Amarr.~ J * n w
16,
IMP.
Manpower BERNARD B. WATSON D
A
LUIIPOWIR ADMINSIM~ON,U. U D E P m 01 LABOR WhSFUNQTON 23, D. L.
&apt for a alight dip following World War 11, employregion w m w g of i w w t h e m a n p o w e r rem n t in the chomiad industry has shown a d y ?in York, New Jeraey, and wurces for the chemical in.in- 1939; It now .tan& at nearly t w k the pdue. Penmylmnis. duatry would be di5cult to The high I.velof -h activity which c h a r r d n L r the The Department of Commake at any time. Under indwtry rrultm in a &tivoly high puwntaga amploymerce points out in ita study ment of .eienti.t. and ThL large demand for that the ewnomy of the present conditions the making of such an asaeeameut in wientista and enginaem 6for u n u d problem in MiddleEaatdneof tbericha harardoua undertaking. the current m o d of et=ingenayin scientiftoand anpinureat regions on this continent, One complicating f a c t o r , ing manpower. ROCOmmendrtiOM M mad. for emsing turning out a huge flow of which would always be prssthe &tm of t h u pmfodonal p a 0 n n . l .horta(ir. goods and servicesannuallyhas expanded greatly aince a t , is the need by the industry for large numbers of 1929, but at a rata lass than wo&m dram from all parts of the full spectrum of &illthe national average. The percentage nhare of the region in from the inexperienced and unskilled workers at one and of the many national totale has d iminished,but this should not obspectrum to the highly trained and experleneed acirmtirte and sonre the fact that in terms of actual productive remurcw the eugineern at the other extreme. Another complicating feotor, emnomy of the Middle Eaat 1.ln almwt every asp& larger and peculiar to the p-t situation, is the changing labor supply richer than it wza in 1929. and demand picture resulting partly from the incressiog rate of According to this report the aggregate income of i n d l v i d d defenae production and partly from an element of instability in the Middle East virtually doubled between 1929 and lS49, in the civilian economy, arising both from the pmsaunr of the rining from 528 to $55 billion. Continuing, the report point. out dsfenae e5ort and from more deepseated economic cawes. that although this increment of $27 billion wan the sacond largest Theas factorsand others make the lot of an individual attemp6 for any region, the 99% inonuvw wan below the 139% ~ t i o n a f ing to &sea the manpower resouroes for the chemical industry average rata of growth in the same period. An a result, the rein a specilied region an unenviable one. Bo far M the vast majorgion’a s h e of income declined from 34% of the United States ity of the indwtry‘a workers are concerned, the general labor total in lSa9 to 28% in 1949. supply and demand situation would apply, but this is a rapidly The le= incream of the region’a income relative to the varying function of time and geographic coordinate position. national average rate of growth wan ascribable, according t o the Few generalisationa can therefore be made about the situation Department of Commerce, partly to the fact that the population in a region of .the &e under consideration. For the auentilic of the Middle Enst grew more slowly over this period than did the Md engineering personnel, on the other hand, their geographic population of the entire nation. More important WM the fact mobility is such that very little can be Mid about the availability that the bigb per capita incomes of Middle Eaat residents IWB of such personnel in one region of the wuntry which is not also more slowly than the considerably lower United States average trueoftherestofthenation. in per capita income for the United States income. The inWhils it is not feasible t o Umit the discussion of the manpower as a whole between 1929 and 1949 was 96%; for the Middle Ebt rwourced for the chemical industry to the three states under it WM 69%. From top rank in 1929, per capita inwme in the Consideration, it would be well to use the general featurea of the region dropped to aecond place among the regiona in 1949,behind and Pennsylvania M a backeconomy of New York, New J-, the Far West. . picture of ground against which to view these ~ ~ 1 1 x 8The The m e story is repeated with regard to other sspeata of the the emnomy of thin region waa sketched in a publication hued ewnomy. S i i c a n t gains WEIE ragistered in volume of retail in 1961 by the United States Department of Commerce (4). d e s , in expenditurea for construction, and in new ~ p 1 t . dfornuA somewhat larger region, r e f e d t o 88 the Middle East and tion, but in each case the percentage of the region’s contribution enwmpsmhg West V i i s , Maryland, and Delaware along to the national total diminiahed between 19% and 1949. with New York, New Jersey, and Pennsylvania, waa described An interpretation of the relative decline, essential to a proper in this dooument. Since, however, the three atatea which we merit of economic health of the region,is given in the report are wnsiderlng mceive about nine tenths of the total inwme of the M follows: Middle &t, M here dehed, stataments made conCarning the In an Bvsluation of the Middle East long-run doantrand in whole region will apply with no appreciable change to the subinwme relative to the nation, several fa& ahodd be kept in
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I N D U S T R I A L A N D E N G I N E E R I N G CHEMISTRY
mind. The first is that, deapite this relative decline, the region
dill accouILts for more than one f o e the nation’s tot4 income and contsina one 6fth of ita population. Further to be emphasized in that the Middle East’s per capita income is nearly one 6fth above the national average and the est of any region a c e t the Far Weat. T h e statistical picture ofthe Middle East’s re!ative decline in the nation’s income male since 1929in generally m l a r to that of New England’s. In this regard, there are numerow between the two regions, but perhaw the most funR“J2 c h a r y W c which they.have in common is s@ply theu comF h v e economc matunty. The current relative pomt~ousof the Middle East and New England reflect in large measure ths industrial, commercial,and population growth of the newer and lara developed parte of the country. A tawkg in this rate of
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powth would make the f o r m underlying the relative Uta of mcome to the South and West lesa strong UI the future than they were in the past.
If we turn now to the cbemieal industry, the picture in one of wntinued, rapid growth a t a rate far in exceea of that of induatry pnerally. Over the past 25 years the average rats of gmwth of the chemical industry haa been greater than 10% per year in oontrant with a rate of 3y0for all indusky over the ~uuneperiod. The growth of the industry is d e c t e d in its in& number of .mployees, though the introduction of automatic controls, materialehandling equipment, and continuous processes combhed to reduce the re!ative rate of increase in employment below that for production. According to the U. 8.Department of Labor’s Bureau of Labor Statistics, total employment in the industry in 1939 amounted to M,000, including 277,000 production workera. The demands of World War I1 produced a sharp rise in the numbers employed with total employment rising to an average of 711,000 during 1945 and the number of production workera c l h b q 555,000. T k peak occurred in Mamh 1945 when total employment WM 751,000 and the number of production workera 596,000. Folloving World War I1 employment, of c o w , dropped but the deorease wm almost insignificant compared with the rise which had occurred during the war. Increawdcivilian demands, p a r t i c u l a r l y f o r the many new products developed during the war and in the immediate poetwsr period, almost totally offset the decreased military demand for chemicals and allied products. By 1948 chemical I employment had recovered from the 1946 low of 675,000 and wan just a shsde under 700,000. A alight setw m d in 1949, but recovery had sat in before the &art of hostilities in Korea. Since 1850 employment haa again risen sharply, surpassing the World War I1 peak. Total 1 employment in March 1952 stood a t 761,oOe; the number of production workers a t I that time waa 538,000. It is intemting to note that while tot4 employment in March wan 10,000 in Bxceas of the World War I1 peak, the number of production workers wm almost 60,000 below t h e corresponding World War n value. The approximately lO%reduction in the number of pmduction
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Resuutii
workers reflects, in all probability, the combined decta of technological improvements in the industry and the greater emphasis being p l d on m a r c h and development during this period of build-up in our military potential. The growth in employment over the period from 1939 through March 1952 in ahown in Figure 1. It is worth pointing out, in passing, that the chemicals and allied products industry enjoya a favorable position relative to manufacturing industries generally in that its employees are, on the average, better paid and have steadier jobs. The average weekly earuinga in the industry in 1951 were W.22 compared with $64.88 for all manufacturing. One of the diatinguiahinscharacteristic#of the chemical industry in the high percentage of timc,etiort, ntaff, and funds which go into m a r c h and development ffitivitk. It is this charnoteriatic abich t o a large extent w o u n t a for ita leaderahip among manufacturing industries. To wme extent this attentivenm to research is forced on the induatry by the nature of its prcduct and by the variety of materials that ahemintry o m provide. Aa a consequence of this considerable intemt and activity in r w c h and development work the industry employs a large number of scientific and technical peraonnel. The National Academy of &ience reportsthat in 1950 the inorganicand Orsanio chemicals industries together employed 7488 profwional personnel in research, representing more than 10% of the total profQonal peraonnel employed in all branches of industrial reaaarcb I n addition, these chemical industries employ about 9% of the total technical personnel engaged in supporting resesmh activities. These heavy requirementefor scientists.ennineam. and other professlohal- personnel will mate wme of the i n d w try% moat troublesome mpower problems in 1953 and the yearaimmediately ahead. Chemists, naturally, form the largeat single group of acientista needed to a W the m a r c h and development and some of the prodnction activities of the chemical industry, and ch& me bard to come by these daw. The Maot magnitude of the shortage of chemists in d i 5 c d t to fix, although all who hire chemiata will atted to iti exiatence. B. R Stanenon, of the AMEEXCAN Cmmw SocnvrY statl, has presented in a recent iasue of Chumid and Engi&ng New8 the results of an anal+ of the records of the Society’s National and Regional Employment Clsaring Houseand of the relative n u m h of “Poaitiom Open’’ and “Pcmitiom Wantad” a d v e r t i s e menta in Cheniad ad BIQG r n h N~a w which give atatietical support to the yc Wlmptim that a ahortsge of
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eodets (a.
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INDUSTRIAL AND ENGINEERING CHEMISTRY
The shortage of chemists, barring a drastic reduction in the ievd of defense mobilization, is going to become worse before the situation can take a turn for the better. The requirements for new entrants to the profession is increasing in the face of a diminishing number of graduates in chemistry frem our colleges and universities. Employers who found i t impossible to satisfy their minimum needs for new personnel in June 1951 found even fewer candidates for more jobs in June 1952 and will find it necessary to accept an even smaller cut of the pie in June 1953. A recent survey of departments of chemistry conducted by the AMERICAN CHEMICAL SOCIETYshowed that the number of bachelor’s degrees awarded in chemistry in the 1951-52 academic year was about 7000 as compared with approximately 9000 in the 1950-51 academic year ( 5 ) . The number in 1952-53 will be even smaller. The one bright spot in the picture is that the number of master’s degrees awarded in chemistry is holding ateady and the number of doctor’s degrees is still rising. Within 8 year or two both of these numbers can be expected to turn downward. The chemical industry has large requirements, also, for engineers-mechanical, electrical, and other types as well as chemical. The manpower picture in engineering is, perhaps, even bleaker. A roundup of information on the nation’s requirements and resources in the field of engineering personnel was made in September 1951 by the Task Force on Resources and Requirements of the Office of Defense Mobilization Committee on Specialized Personnel ( 1 ) . The situation ha,# probably not changed appreciably since that time. The Task Force had this to say: A study of past trends and prospective industrial develop ments suggests that, under peacetime conditions, the total annual demand for new engineering graduates would probably have averaged 20,000 during this decade. This demand figure allowed for a growth of about 100,000 in the profession over a 12-year period, as well as for estimated replacement needs. Under present mobilization conditions, the demand for new engineers will undoubtedly be much higher. The mobilization program has created a great, added need for engineering personnel in defense industries and those converting t o defense production and in the development of new defense-related products. Though an exact estimate of the total annual demand for engineers, to meet both defense and civilian needs, cannot be made on the basis of the available information, the average annual need for new engineering graduates during a prolonged partial mobilization would probably be a t least 30,000. I n addition to replacing men who die or retire, this number of graduates would provide 21,000 to 22,000 engineers annually to fill new jobs and make up for any transfers out of engineering not offset by transfers into it from other fields. Though 30,000 new engineers per year might well meet the demand during a long period of partial mobilization, the number of new graduates needed is expected to be even greater in the immediate future, while defense production and development work are still in the initial build-up stage. In June 1951, the Engineering Manpower Commission of the Engineers Joint Council made a survey to find out how many new graduates employers needed. Replies were received from companies and governmenl, agencies which employed a total of 122,000 graduate engineers, or nearly a third of the engineers in the country. These employers alone reported a need for 22,000 new engineering graduates. This fact suggests a total nation-wide need for many more than 30,000 graduates immediately, in the tooling up and development stage of the defense program.
Since the Task Force reported, the figures on engineering degrees granted in the 1950-51 academic year have become available. A total of 41,473 new engineering graduates were provided during that year, and practically all these had employment before the ink was dry on their diplomas. Only 30,000 new engineering graduates are expected t o be turned out in the 1951-52 academic year, and in the two succeeding years the numbers will drop to an estimated 23,000 and 19,000. It will be 1955 before any reversal in the trend can be expected, and then the improvement will be only slight. When it is remembered i hat f a r from all the engineering graduates will be available for
Vol. 45, No. 3
civilian employment because so many are already committed to military Bervice through R,O.T.C. programs and others will be inducted by way of Selective Service, it is apparent that the chemical industry, with other industries that employ engineers, government agencies, and educational institutions are facing an engineering manpower famine for several years to come. Although there is no conceivable way in which the number oi professional chemists and engineers can be increased in the next year or two beyond the number already trained and those now preparing for these fields in college8 and universities, there are some steps which the chemical industry can take toward alleviating the effects of the present shortage and toward ensuring that sufficient numbers of scientists and engineers will be available for the long pull. To ease the problems of the present the industry should make a systematic study of the job8 which it has its scientists and engineers doing in order to determine if there are any elements of those jobs which can be performed by individuals with less than the full training of professional scientists and engineers. By some reorganization of the activities of its scientists and engineers the industry should be able to reduce its demands on the national pool of scientific and engineering sltills. In view of the existing shortages, these demands should in every case be set a t the minimum levels consistent with the maintenance of a healthy industry. Some of our present troubles are without doubt due to the underutilization of the skills and training of our scientists and engineers. To ensure against a continuation of the shortages of engineers and scientists into the indefinite future, industry should consider its responsibilities in connection with the stimulation of a greater interest in the study of science and engineering. As a minimum, industry should work with professional organizations and schools in bringing information about career opportunities in the sciences and engineering t o the attention of students with the necessary abilities and interest for professional work in these fields, But industry can and should go much beyond this minimum participation in encouraging able students to enter upon scientific and technical careers. In its own enlightened self-interest, the chemical industry, along with other industries employing scientists and engineers, should provide financial assistance to students who would otherwise be unable to complete their professional training. An industry-wide scholarship fund would go a long way toward ensuring an adequate supply of scientists and engineers in the future. My final recommendation is concerned with the supply of production workers which apparently presents no serious problems now but might well present such problems in the event a higher level of mobilization is required. There are in the nation and, in particular, in the states of New York, New Jersey, and Pennsylvania, areas of chronic unemployment arising from changing industrial patterns. Some of the mining communities of Pennsylvania-for example, Scranton and Wilkes-Barre-fall into this category. In addition, there are areas of chronic underemployment, notably in agricultural regions. From the standpoint of ensuring an adequate supply of production workers and from the standpoint of avoiding too high a concentration of industrial activity in our present industrial areas which may invite air attacks in the event of war, the chemical industry might do well to consider these areas of chronic unemployment or underemployment in the location of new facilities and in the expansion of present facilities. LITERATURE CITED (1) Office of Defense Mobilization, “Resources and Requirements of Specialized Personnel,” 1951. (2) Stanerson, B. R., Chem. Eng. >Views, 30, 865-70 (1952). (3) Zbid., PP. 3816-18. (4) U. S. Department of Commerce, “Regional Trends in the United States Economy,” 1951. RECEIWDfor review September 15, 1952.
ACCEPTEDDecember 16, 1952.
